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Lofty US stock market valuations bank on earnings strength
Lofty US stock market valuations bank on earnings strength

Khaleej Times

time20-07-2025

  • Business
  • Khaleej Times

Lofty US stock market valuations bank on earnings strength

With Wall Street's surge to record highs, the U.S. stock market looks nearly as expensive as ever, and investors are debating whether the lofty valuations are a bearish signal or justified by the technology-heavy market's profit outlook. Few investors would argue the broad stock market is cheap. Since late last month, the benchmark S&P 500 has traded above 22 times its expected earnings over the next year, according to LSEG Datastream. That's a price-to-earnings level the index has ascended to only about 7% of the time over the past 40 years. Determining appropriate market valuations could help investors understand how expensive stocks could get or how deeply they might fall, especially if there are renewed recession concerns. Whether current valuations are an imminent sell signal remains to be seen. Investors say the U.S. stock market can trade at elevated levels for an extended period of time. Some investors believe a number of structural changes could justify higher stock valuations, including greater representation in indexes from tech companies that generate massive profits. "By pretty much every historical metric (the market's valuation) is rich," said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. "The question investors are grappling with is, is it warranted?" The SP 500 has soared 25% since April, as investors grew less fearful that President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs would cause a recession. The index has gained 6% so far in 2025, and over 60% in the past three years. last week, the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio was 22.2, according to LSEG Datastream. That level is over 40% above the index's 40-year average of 15.8 and about 20% above its 10-year average of 18.6. A metric comparing price to expected sales shows the S&P 500 trading over 60% above its average of the past 20 years, according to Datastream. "On the broadest basis, the market has clearly got a valuation headwind relative to where it has been in history," said Patrick Ryan, chief investment strategist at Madison Investments. Investors debate the relevance of historical comparisons. The bigger presence in indexes of technology and tech-related companies, which tend to carry higher valuations, drives up the P/E ratio, while the profit strength of the largest companies also means the index could deserve higher valuations, investors said. The S&P 500's operating profit margin stood at 12% at the end of 2024, up from 9% in 2014, according to SP Dow Jones Indices. Other potential justifications for higher valuations include regular buying of equities from 401(k) and other retirement plans, and lower fees for index funds easing access to stocks. While studies show elevated valuations suggest diminished returns over the longer term, they are not always the best "timing tools" for determining the market's near-term direction, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research. Still, Clissold said, "a lot of good news is priced into stocks at these levels." In the April swoon, the S&P 500's P/E ratio sank to 17.9; in 2022's bear-market drop, driven by spiking interest rates, the P/E fell as low as 15.3. Indeed, investors are wary that current valuations make stocks particularly susceptible to disappointments. One worry: Washington could fail to strike deals with trading partners ahead of August 1, when higher U.S. levies on numerous countries are set to start. Another shock could be the early departure of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whom Trump has persistently pressured to leave. Corporate results also pose a test. Second-quarter reports are kicking off with SP 500 earnings expected to have increased 6.5% from the year-earlier period, according to LSEG IBES. Wall Street increasingly is focused on next year's profit potential, with SP 500 earnings expected to rise 14% in 2026. "Investors seem somewhat convinced that the SP is going to generate about 10% earnings growth for a few years after this year," said David Bianco, Americas chief investment officer at DWS Group. "The equity market has become fairly dismissive of any kind of significant recession risk." Some investors say that if artificial intelligence adoption broadly benefits the economy, "then maybe the valuations would be justified because the earnings growth the next few years could be substantial," Clissold said. To be sure, some investors are investing more in relatively cheaper areas such as small caps and international stocks. Ryan and others point to higher yields on U.S. government bonds, seen as risk-free if held to term, as one factor dimming the allure of stocks. The benchmark 10-year yield is around 4.5%, well above its level for much of the past 15 years. "There are alternatives out there for you to move your capital to," Ryan said. Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said the firm is recommending clients trim equities in areas including industrials and consumer discretionary sectors, expecting broadly slowing earnings growth in coming months before accelerating. The firm has a year-end SP 500 target of 6,000, about 4% below current levels. "Valuation-wise, stocks are pretty lofty," Wren said. Still, he added, determining a fair valuation is trickier than it has been. "Where is the line in the sand between expensive and not expensive?" Wren said. "It's harder to determine that."

Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide
Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide

Economic Times

time19-07-2025

  • Automotive
  • Economic Times

Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide

IANS Investors dove into the beaten-down shares during the furious rally unleashed when Trump paused most of his aggressive levies in April. Investors in auto firms, which sit squarely in the bullseye of US President Donald Trump's trade war, are about to find out if earnings back up the sector's scorching rebound from this year's lows.A gauge of stocks of US carmakers and suppliers has soared more than 40% from its tariff-fueled April depths, handily beating the S&P 500 Index's 26% gain. Meanwhile, the MSCI World Auto and Components Index has climbed 30% in that period, outpacing the MSCI World Index's 25% dove into the beaten-down shares during the furious rally unleashed when Trump paused most of his aggressive levies in April. But the recovery, which has since stalled out, creates a conundrum: While the shares are now much more costly, the tariff outlook hasn't grown much clearer as the sector gets ready to announce quarterly profits starting next to that headwinds around the affordability of new vehicles, rising global competition from Chinese brands like BYD Co., and China's efforts to regulate the sector, and some analysts are wary of making broad bets on the industry at the moment. 'Auto stocks have bounced back, but the setup into earnings is murky,' said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. 'This is a market for selectivity, not broad exposure.' General Motors Co., Tesla Inc. and Volkswagen AG release earnings next week, with Ford Motor Co., Stellantis NV, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and BMW AG coming the week after. Japan's Toyota Motor Corp., the world's No. 1 carmaker, and China's Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. are due to report next month. Most companies are poised to announce numbers for the three months through June — after a stretch in which Trump unveiled a slew of tariffs on auto imports, goods from Mexico and Canada, steel and aluminum and nearly all US trading partners. Many of the measures have been paused, but this month brought a fresh blow as Trump announced tariffs on copper and unleashed ultimatums on counterparts including Japan, Brazil, the European Union and Mexico. The impact of the potential tariff regime on automakers, which have a sprawling global supply chain and are uniquely exposed to the risk, is a key theme investors and analysts will be watching. 'It is a fluid situation still and investors were not really prepared for the latest round of tariffs that were announced earlier this month,' said Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA Research. He has a hold-equivalent rating on the US auto sector, citing valuations and tariff-related uncertainty among other reasons. Wall Street is already lowering expectations for some of the biggest carmakers. Analysts' second-quarter average profit estimate for GM has dropped 18% over the past six months and Ford's has sunk 30%, according to Bloomberg EV giant Tesla it's declined 47% over the same period, with a potential hurdle looming as a federal tax credit for consumer purchases of electric vehicles ends in overarching question is how companies are handling tariff-triggered cost increases.A Bank of Japan report this month showed the country's automakers slashed prices of exports to the US — a sign they were sacrificing profits to stay competitive. Industry analysts expect Toyota to fare better than its domestic peers given its sizable profits, and see Honda Motor Co. benefiting from extensive local picture is gloomier in Europe. Volkswagen's sales dropped 16% in the US in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from the 4.4% growth in the first three months of the year before the new levies took effect. This week, Sweden's Volvo Car AB said it was taking an impairment charge of about $1.2 billion due to delays to some electric models and climbing tariff costs. Its CEO on Thursday urged the EU to cut tariffs on the US to help a trade contrast to the US sector's performance, the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts gauge of European producers has trailed the rebound in the region's broader Stoxx 600 from an April low.'The European mass-market players will be fighting for their piece of a pie in a pie that is pretty much stable, or unchanging, over the medium- to longer-term, with more competitors,' said Rella Suskin, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. 'So someone's got to lose share somewhere.'A fast-emerging theme for European carmakers that have reported sales for the second quarter has been weakness in China — one of the world's largest auto markets — where domestic companies have become tough competitors. German sportscar maker Porsche AG said its global deliveries fell 6% in the first half of the year, and warned of a difficult road ahead due to fierce competition in China and slowing momentum in the US. BMW AG's sales stagnated in the second quarter as deliveries in China dropped, and Mercedes-Benz Group AG's vehicle sales declined in both the US and China.'China is probably a lost cause for all foreign brands, except for Tesla,' Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter wrote in a note to clients this rise of Chinese EV makers such as Geely is also pressuring BYD, the country's top automaker, which saw its domestic passenger car sales decline the past few months. China this week pledged to rein in 'irrational competition' in its EV sector after BYD and other automakers cut prices to lure Wall Street, partsmakers look like a bright spot. With car manufacturers facing intense political pressure to forgo price increases as tariffs hit, auto suppliers are showing signs of being able to pass along that Europe, for example, analysts favor tiremakers in particular as the companies successfully raise prices to offset US tariff costs, which Citigroup Inc. says reflects an early pass-through to consumers.'We think more local players, especially Michelin, can benefit from this trend in a profitable way,' analysts led by Ross MacDonald wrote in a note this week.

Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide
Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide

Time of India

time19-07-2025

  • Automotive
  • Time of India

Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide

Investors in auto firms, which sit squarely in the bullseye of US President Donald Trump 's trade war, are about to find out if earnings back up the sector's scorching rebound from this year's lows. A gauge of stocks of US carmakers and suppliers has soared more than 40% from its tariff-fueled April depths, handily beating the S&P 500 Index's 26% gain. Meanwhile, the MSCI World Auto and Components Index has climbed 30% in that period, outpacing the MSCI World Index's 25% advance. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category Investors dove into the beaten-down shares during the furious rally unleashed when Trump paused most of his aggressive levies in April. But the recovery, which has since stalled out, creates a conundrum: While the shares are now much more costly, the tariff outlook hasn't grown much clearer as the sector gets ready to announce quarterly profits starting next week. Add to that headwinds around the affordability of new vehicles, rising global competition from Chinese brands like BYD Co., and China's efforts to regulate the sector, and some analysts are wary of making broad bets on the industry at the moment. 'Auto stocks have bounced back, but the setup into earnings is murky,' said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services . 'This is a market for selectivity, not broad exposure.' Live Events General Motors Co., Tesla Inc. and Volkswagen AG release earnings next week, with Ford Motor Co., Stellantis NV, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and BMW AG coming the week after. Japan's Toyota Motor Corp., the world's No. 1 carmaker, and China's Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. are due to report next month. 'Fluid Situation' Most companies are poised to announce numbers for the three months through June — after a stretch in which Trump unveiled a slew of tariffs on auto imports, goods from Mexico and Canada, steel and aluminum and nearly all US trading partners. Many of the measures have been paused, but this month brought a fresh blow as Trump announced tariffs on copper and unleashed ultimatums on counterparts including Japan, Brazil, the European Union and Mexico. The impact of the potential tariff regime on automakers, which have a sprawling global supply chain and are uniquely exposed to the risk, is a key theme investors and analysts will be watching. 'It is a fluid situation still and investors were not really prepared for the latest round of tariffs that were announced earlier this month,' said Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA Research. He has a hold-equivalent rating on the US auto sector, citing valuations and tariff-related uncertainty among other reasons. Wall Street is already lowering expectations for some of the biggest carmakers. Analysts' second-quarter average profit estimate for GM has dropped 18% over the past six months and Ford's has sunk 30%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. For EV giant Tesla it's declined 47% over the same period, with a potential hurdle looming as a federal tax credit for consumer purchases of electric vehicles ends in September. The overarching question is how companies are handling tariff-triggered cost increases. A Bank of Japan report this month showed the country's automakers slashed prices of exports to the US — a sign they were sacrificing profits to stay competitive. Industry analysts expect Toyota to fare better than its domestic peers given its sizable profits, and see Honda Motor Co. benefiting from extensive local manufacturing. The picture is gloomier in Europe. Volkswagen's sales dropped 16% in the US in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from the 4.4% growth in the first three months of the year before the new levies took effect. This week, Sweden's Volvo Car AB said it was taking an impairment charge of about $1.2 billion due to delays to some electric models and climbing tariff costs. Its CEO on Thursday urged the EU to cut tariffs on the US to help a trade deal. In contrast to the US sector's performance, the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts gauge of European producers has trailed the rebound in the region's broader Stoxx 600 from an April low. 'The European mass-market players will be fighting for their piece of a pie in a pie that is pretty much stable, or unchanging, over the medium- to longer-term, with more competitors,' said Rella Suskin, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. 'So someone's got to lose share somewhere.' 'Lost Cause' A fast-emerging theme for European carmakers that have reported sales for the second quarter has been weakness in China — one of the world's largest auto markets — where domestic companies have become tough competitors. German sportscar maker Porsche AG said its global deliveries fell 6% in the first half of the year, and warned of a difficult road ahead due to fierce competition in China and slowing momentum in the US. BMW AG's sales stagnated in the second quarter as deliveries in China dropped, and Mercedes-Benz Group AG's vehicle sales declined in both the US and China. 'China is probably a lost cause for all foreign brands, except for Tesla,' Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter wrote in a note to clients this month. The rise of Chinese EV makers such as Geely is also pressuring BYD, the country's top automaker, which saw its domestic passenger car sales decline the past few months. China this week pledged to rein in 'irrational competition' in its EV sector after BYD and other automakers cut prices to lure buyers. For Wall Street, partsmakers look like a bright spot. With car manufacturers facing intense political pressure to forgo price increases as tariffs hit, auto suppliers are showing signs of being able to pass along that expense. In Europe, for example, analysts favor tiremakers in particular as the companies successfully raise prices to offset US tariff costs, which Citigroup Inc. says reflects an early pass-through to consumers. 'We think more local players, especially Michelin, can benefit from this trend in a profitable way,' analysts led by Ross MacDonald wrote in a note this week.

Carmakers Face Uncertainty as Tariffs and Earnings Collide
Carmakers Face Uncertainty as Tariffs and Earnings Collide

Yahoo

time18-07-2025

  • Automotive
  • Yahoo

Carmakers Face Uncertainty as Tariffs and Earnings Collide

(Bloomberg) -- Investors in auto firms, which sit squarely in the bullseye of US President Donald Trump's trade war, are about to find out if earnings back up the sector's scorching rebound from this year's lows. The Dutch Intersection Is Coming to Save Your Life Advocates Fear US Agents Are Using 'Wellness Checks' on Children as a Prelude to Arrests Mumbai Facelift Is Inspired by 200-Year-Old New York Blueprint LA Homelessness Drops for Second Year Manhattan, Chicago Murder Rates Drop in 2025, Officials Say A gauge of stocks of US carmakers and suppliers has soared more than 40% from its tariff-fueled April depths, handily beating the S&P 500 Index's 26% gain. Meanwhile, the MSCI World Auto and Components Index has climbed 30% in that period, outpacing the MSCI World Index's 25% advance. Investors dove into the beaten-down shares during the furious rally unleashed when Trump paused most of his aggressive levies in April. But the recovery, which has since stalled out, creates a conundrum: While the shares are now much more costly, the tariff outlook hasn't grown much clearer as the sector gets ready to announce quarterly profits starting next week. Add to that headwinds around the affordability of new vehicles, rising global competition from Chinese brands like BYD Co., and China's efforts to regulate the sector, and some analysts are wary of making broad bets on the industry at the moment. 'Auto stocks have bounced back, but the setup into earnings is murky,' said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. 'This is a market for selectivity, not broad exposure.' General Motors Co., Tesla Inc. and Volkswagen AG release earnings next week, with Ford Motor Co., Stellantis NV, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and BMW AG coming the week after. Japan's Toyota Motor Corp., the world's No. 1 carmaker, and China's Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. are due to report next month. 'Fluid Situation' Most companies are poised to announce numbers for the three months through June — after a stretch in which Trump unveiled a slew of tariffs on auto imports, goods from Mexico and Canada, steel and aluminum and nearly all US trading partners. Many of the measures have been paused, but this month brought a fresh blow as Trump announced tariffs on copper and unleashed ultimatums on counterparts including Japan, Brazil, the European Union and Mexico. The impact of the potential tariff regime on automakers, which have a sprawling global supply chain and are uniquely exposed to the risk, is a key theme investors and analysts will be watching. 'It is a fluid situation still and investors were not really prepared for the latest round of tariffs that were announced earlier this month,' said Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA Research. He has a hold-equivalent rating on the US auto sector, citing valuations and tariff-related uncertainty among other reasons. Wall Street is already lowering expectations for some of the biggest carmakers. Analysts' second-quarter average profit estimate for GM has dropped 18% over the past six months and Ford's has sunk 30%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. For EV giant Tesla it's declined 47% over the same period, with a potential hurdle looming as a federal tax credit for consumer purchases of electric vehicles ends in September. The overarching question is how companies are handling tariff-triggered cost increases. A Bank of Japan report this month showed the country's automakers slashed prices of exports to the US — a sign they were sacrificing profits to stay competitive. Industry analysts expect Toyota to fare better than its domestic peers given its sizable profits, and see Honda Motor Co. benefiting from extensive local manufacturing. The picture is gloomier in Europe. Volkswagen's sales dropped 16% in the US in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from the 4.4% growth in the first three months of the year before the new levies took effect. This week, Sweden's Volvo Car AB said it was taking an impairment charge of about $1.2 billion due to delays to some electric models and climbing tariff costs. Its CEO on Thursday urged the EU to cut tariffs on the US to help a trade deal. In contrast to the US sector's performance, the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts gauge of European producers has trailed the rebound in the region's broader Stoxx 600 from an April low. 'The European mass-market players will be fighting for their piece of a pie in a pie that is pretty much stable, or unchanging, over the medium- to longer-term, with more competitors,' said Rella Suskin, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. 'So someone's got to lose share somewhere.' 'Lost Cause' A fast-emerging theme for European carmakers that have reported sales for the second quarter has been weakness in China — one of the world's largest auto markets — where domestic companies have become tough competitors. German sportscar maker Porsche AG said its global deliveries fell 6% in the first half of the year, and warned of a difficult road ahead due to fierce competition in China and slowing momentum in the US. BMW AG's sales stagnated in the second quarter as deliveries in China dropped, and Mercedes-Benz Group AG's vehicle sales declined in both the US and China. 'China is probably a lost cause for all foreign brands, except for Tesla,' Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter wrote in a note to clients this month. The rise of Chinese EV makers such as Geely is also pressuring BYD, the country's top automaker, which saw its domestic passenger car sales decline the past few months. China this week pledged to rein in 'irrational competition' in its EV sector after BYD and other automakers cut prices to lure buyers. For Wall Street, partsmakers look like a bright spot. With car manufacturers facing intense political pressure to forgo price increases as tariffs hit, auto suppliers are showing signs of being able to pass along that expense. In Europe, for example, analysts favor tiremakers in particular as the companies successfully raise prices to offset US tariff costs, which Citigroup Inc. says reflects an early pass-through to consumers. 'We think more local players, especially Michelin, can benefit from this trend in a profitable way,' analysts led by Ross MacDonald wrote in a note this week. What the Tough Job Market for New College Grads Says About the Economy How Starbucks' CEO Plans to Tame the Rush-Hour Free-for-All Godzilla Conquered Japan. Now Its Owner Plots a Global Takeover A Rebel Army Is Building a Rare-Earth Empire on China's Border Why Access to Running Water Is a Luxury in Wealthy US Cities ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide
Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide

Los Angeles Times

time18-07-2025

  • Automotive
  • Los Angeles Times

Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide

Investors in auto firms, which sit squarely in the bullseye of President Donald Trump's trade war, are about to find out if earnings back up the sector's scorching rebound from this year's lows. A gauge of stocks of U.S. carmakers and suppliers has soared more than 40% from its tariff-fueled April depths, handily beating the S&P 500 Index's 26% gain. Meanwhile, the MSCI World Auto and Components Index has climbed 30% in that period, outpacing the MSCI World Index's 25% advance. Investors dove into the beaten-down shares during the furious rally unleashed when Trump paused most of his aggressive levies in April. But the recovery, which has since stalled out, creates a conundrum: While the shares are now much more costly, the tariff outlook hasn't grown much clearer as the sector gets ready to announce quarterly profits starting next week. Add to that headwinds around the affordability of new vehicles, rising global competition from Chinese brands like BYD Co., and China's efforts to regulate the sector, and some analysts are wary of making broad bets on the industry at the moment. 'Auto stocks have bounced back, but the setup into earnings is murky,' said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. 'This is a market for selectivity, not broad exposure.' General Motors Co., Tesla Inc. and Volkswagen AG release earnings next week, with Ford Motor Co., Stellantis NV, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and BMW AG coming the week after. Japan's Toyota Motor Corp., the world's No. 1 carmaker, and China's Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. are due to report next month. Most companies are poised to announce numbers for the three months through June — after a stretch in which Trump unveiled a slew of tariffs on auto imports, goods from Mexico and Canada, steel and aluminum and nearly all U.S. trading partners. Many of the measures have been paused, but this month brought a fresh blow as Trump announced tariffs on copper and unleashed ultimatums on counterparts including Japan, Brazil, the European Union and Mexico. The impact of the potential tariff regime on automakers, which have a sprawling global supply chain and are uniquely exposed to the risk, is a key theme investors and analysts will be watching. 'It is a fluid situation still and investors were not really prepared for the latest round of tariffs that were announced earlier this month,' said Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA Research. He has a hold-equivalent rating on the U.S. auto sector, citing valuations and tariff-related uncertainty among other reasons. Wall Street is already lowering expectations for some of the biggest carmakers. Analysts' second-quarter average profit estimate for GM has dropped 18% over the past six months and Ford's has sunk 30%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. For EV giant Tesla it's declined 47% over the same period, with a potential hurdle looming as a federal tax credit for consumer purchases of electric vehicles ends in September. The overarching question is how companies are handling tariff-triggered cost increases. A Bank of Japan report this month showed the country's automakers slashed prices of exports to the U.S. — a sign they were sacrificing profits to stay competitive. Industry analysts expect Toyota to fare better than its domestic peers given its sizable profits, and see Honda Motor Co. benefiting from extensive local manufacturing. Volkswagen's sales dropped 16% in the U.S. in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from the 4.4% growth in the first three months of the year before the new levies took effect. This week, Sweden's Volvo Car AB said it was taking an impairment charge of about $1.2 billion due to delays to some electric models and climbing tariff costs. Its CEO on Thursday urged the EU to cut tariffs on the U.S. to help a trade deal. In contrast to the U.S. sector's performance, the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts gauge of European producers has trailed the rebound in the region's broader Stoxx 600 from an April low. 'The European mass-market players will be fighting for their piece of a pie in a pie that is pretty much stable, or unchanging, over the medium- to longer-term, with more competitors,' said Rella Suskin, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. 'So someone's got to lose share somewhere.' A fast-emerging theme for European carmakers that have reported sales for the second quarter has been weakness in China — one of the world's largest auto markets — where domestic companies have become tough competitors. German sportscar maker Porsche AG said its global deliveries fell 6% in the first half of the year, and warned of a difficult road ahead due to fierce competition in China and slowing momentum in the U.S. BMW AG's sales stagnated in the second quarter as deliveries in China dropped, and Mercedes-Benz Group AG's vehicle sales declined in both the U.S. and China. 'China is probably a lost cause for all foreign brands, except for Tesla,' Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter wrote in a note to clients this month. The rise of Chinese EV makers such as Geely is also pressuring BYD, the country's top automaker, which saw its domestic passenger car sales decline the past few months. China this week pledged to rein in 'irrational competition' in its EV sector after BYD and other automakers cut prices to lure buyers. For Wall Street, partsmakers look like a bright spot. With car manufacturers facing intense political pressure to forgo price increases as tariffs hit, auto suppliers are showing signs of being able to pass along that expense. In Europe, for example, analysts favor tiremakers in particular as the companies successfully raise prices to offset US tariff costs, which Citigroup Inc. says reflects an early pass-through to consumers. 'We think more local players, especially Michelin, can benefit from this trend in a profitable way,' analysts led by Ross MacDonald wrote in a note this week. Dey, MacDonogh and Yang write for Bloomberg.

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