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NDTV
3 days ago
- Business
- NDTV
Tariff War On India: Trump's Words And Our Scriptures
For the past two months, the United States President, Donald Trump, has been on an escalatory trajectory vis-à-vis India to browbeat New Delhi into making import tariff concessions deeper than the latter is willing to make. First, he gradually ramped up his rhetoric, calling us names ("Tariff King", "dead economy"), peppering it with isolated and unrelated examples of unfair/unethical conduct (from Harley-Davidson motorcycles to buying Russian oil). A "retaliatory" tariff of 25% was imposed on July 31, to be followed by another equal dose on August 4 as a "secondary tariff" for buying Russian oil. As of now, India's mainstream exports to the US invoke a 25% duty, which would rise to 50% on August 27. This campaign has been accompanied by overtures towards Pakistan and Bangladesh and greater discretion towards China. He has done so, ironically, while periodically gushing about good/strategic ties with India and high respect for our Prime Minister. Is There A Method To This Madness? India has officially criticised these measures as "unfair, unjustified and unreasonable". Many observers have panned them for reversing the hard-earned bilateral gains of the past quarter of a century. Yet, there is a need to look objectively for a method in this apparent madness and devise a counter strategy. A good starting point for such an analysis would be Donald Trump's ghost-authored 1987-published book titled Trump: The Art of The Deal. This book begins with the author's confession of sorts: "I do not do it for the money. I have enough, much more than I'll ever need. I do it to do it. Deals are my art form. I like making deals, preferably big deals. That's how I get my kick." Later, the 369-page narcist tome yields several other relevant "pearls of wisdom", which also need to be factored in: "I like thinking big. I always have. To me, it's very simple: If you're going to be thinking anyway, you might as well think big"; "I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I'm after"; "Sometimes I settle for less than I sought, but in most cases, I still end up with what I want." "I never get too attached to one deal or one approach...I keep a lot of balls in the air, because most deals fall out, no matter how promising they seem at first." "I always go into the deal anticipating the worst. If you plan for the worst - if you can live with the worst - the good will always take care of itself." "I like to think that I have that instinct. That's why I don't hire a lot of number-crunchers, and I don't trust fancy marketing surveys. I do my own surveys and draw my own conclusions." "The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you're dead." "In most cases, I'm very easy to get along with. I'm very good to people who are good to me. But when people treat me badly or unfairly or try to take advantage of me, my general attitude, all my life, has been to fight back very hard." The two phrases in italics in the last two bullets could explain Trump's specific hardline on India: he thinks Indians are desperate for a deal, and he has convinced himself that Indians are taking advantage of the US. To successfully make a deal, we would need to disabuse him of his twin misperceptions that we are "deal-desperate" and that we have treated the US "badly or unfairly". Some caveats on the above would not be out of place: Trump's tariff strategy is neither irrational nor whimsical: it is an integral cornerstone of "Make America Great Again" and his campaign's "Project 2025". These quotes are from his book, allegedly ghostwritten nearly four decades ago. Although he continues to stand by it, the time has presumably matured him somewhat; The book's context of Donald Trump as a real estate and casino mogul is starkly different from being President of a country; in particular, his abrasive, insolent style as a tycoon is unsuited for the sophistication needed as the President of the world's most powerful country and largest economy. Both as a megalomaniac and second-term president, he is deeply interested in leaving a positive legacy to paper over a controversial and attention-grabbing "colourful" life. As someone who coined the term "truthful hyperbole", he is dismissive of the arguments and data that expose him. Despite his self image of a transactional deal-making maestro, he has frequently failed dismally, forcing him to back-off: prominent of these include botched acerbic litigation against the tenants of a New York Central Park Apartment bloc he wanted to take over, his high-profile attempt to duplicate the National Football League of America, and the 2019 deal with Taliban that led to a humiliating US withdrawal from Afghanistan. He has tried to paper over these and other disasters. Despite plenty of heat, there has been little light so far in Trump-II, with his domestic approval rating sharply down (37% by Gallup), constant run-ins with the Federal Reserve, media, Elon Musk, sections of the US Congress and even his MAGA base. Thanks to his frequent shifts, he has earned an unwelcome epithet of 'TACO' (Trump always Chickens Out). His boast of near-mythical negotiating prowess has already been upended by leaders of major foreign powers as Xi, Putin and Lula. His takeover bids for Gaza, Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal, as if these were real estate properties in downtown Manhattan, have exposed his naivete. No wonder the White House is desperately looking for major success to impress its MAGA base. Ironically, right now, the US President is reduced to being a deal desperado - something he strongly advised the dealmakers against! Against this darkening backdrop, he has now zeroed in on India as a "manageable target", setting up an epic and nervy tryst. One does not expect Trump to be knowledgeable about the ancient Indian negotiating strategy, but his approach towards India seems to have a near overlap. Our Matsya Purana scripture describes Lord ShriHari himself revealing to Manu the four tenets of negotiating strategy based on Sam (Flattery), Dam (bribery), Dand (Punishment) and Bhed (Dissension). Eerily, Trump's recent posturing towards India can be seen through this ancient policy prism. He has used Sam ("India and Modi are our great friends", but...), Dam (bilateral strategic partnership, trade agreement, F-35, etc.), Dand (high tariffs and hot air) and Bhed (sowing domestic blame game in India about 'dead' economy, hobnobbing with Pakistan, Bangladesh and China, etc.). What India Must Do How does one devise a counter-negotiating strategy against Donald Trump's vicious assault on India? Above all, we must believe it to be a long haul and avoid any signs of panic or desperation. After all, Iran has been under US sanctions/embargo for over 45 years, and Russia has been subject to nearly 10,000 US sanctions for over three years. On Trump, we are generally on the right track, though the following inputs can be helpful: Sam: While any flattery would be misplaced at this stage, we should maintain the rational, calm dialogue without showing any desperation for an early bilateral deal and emphasise our strength and an equality of treatment. As the White House has precipitated the bilateral crisis, the onus for resolving it lies on them. Dam: We can dangle the potential gains for the US economy from our market opening proposals in a deal. If Washington continues to play hardball, we can expedite our trade deals with other comparable countries to shrink the domain left for America in the Indian market and show it that time is not on its side. This can be particularly true of the major technical standards being adopted for the future. Our generics form 47% of medicines sold in the US and give us a strong handle. We dominate vaccines and IT back-office space that are crucial to the Americans. We should hold back on major bilateral deals and procurements with the US until the tariff situation is sorted to our satisfaction. Dand: We need to be clever here, but also careful to avoid further escalation. While exuding confidence and strength, we should maintain an enigmatic silence about our negotiating posture on the concessions that the US seeks. Other diplomatic options may range from greater coordination with BRICS and independent initiatives to strengthen our ties with the Global South, with a particular emphasis on regions where we have an intrinsic advantage, such as the Middle East and Africa, as well as the region that the US is more possessive about, such as Latin America Bhed: It's quite evident that most sections of the US bureaucracy are not on the same page with Trump's tariff wars strategy. We can engage such sections, particularly in the State and Defence Departments. We can also cultivate the influential US media outlets. With looming Congressional elections next year, we can zero in on the constituencies with major Indian presence. The deafening silence of the over 5 million-strong Indian community, which includes billionaires, CEOs and political bigwigs on this issue of core interest to India, is quite puzzling and shows a huge lacuna in our soft power that needs plugging. The American companies with major interests in India, especially the FAANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google), for which India is the world's biggest market, should be persuaded to lobby for the de-escalation of the tariff war. Though Trump has indulged in megaphone demagoguery against India on social media with his MAGA base in anticipation of his triumphal opening of the Indian market, we should not play his game. We should be resolute and "fight back harder" than him, while also leaving him an exit for a climbdown. To quote another ancient Indian adage, this time from Vidur Neeti, subsequently endorsed by Chankya: "शठे शाठ्यम समाचरेत्" - or, "Tit for Tat", a globally well-understood Americanism. (Mahesh Sachdev is a retired Indian Ambassador. He currently heads Eco-Diplomacy and Strategies, a Delhi-based consultancy) Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
Boston Globe
19-02-2025
- Politics
- Boston Globe
As Moscow and Washington talk, Russians hope the result is normalcy
On Tuesday, speaking on the main political news show on state television, Yuri Afonin, a Communist lawmaker, said that direct talks between Moscow and Washington were a reward for Russia's resilience over the past three years. 'Russia has proved that it can hold talks about the future of the world on par with the US,' Afonin said. Advertisement 'This is not just about negotiating an end to the conflict,' he said. 'It is about a new world order.' But for some people in Moscow, a potential settlement is less about geopolitics and more about the end of bloody fighting in a war that has claimed thousands of lives. 'I'm feeling better now that we see that the issue is going to be solved at the negotiating table, not on a battlefield,' said Dmitri, 31, a marketing specialist. In a phone interview, Dmitri, who asked that his last name not be used to speak candidly about the war, said that although he did not support President Vladimir Putin and his policies, he believed some of the Kremlin's claims that the government in Ukraine had been pressuring the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine. Most of all, Dmitri said, he wanted the war to stop. He said Putin's threats to use nuclear weapons during the war had made him 'weak in the knees.' 'Both sides are very entrenched right now,' he said. 'I can't wait for it to end.' Advertisement The Kremlin has portrayed the end of the war in terms of a grand deal that should cement its hold over at least parts of Ukraine. But many Russians see it as a return to a time when people did not have to worry that their children would get drafted to fight or fear being detained for antiwar posts on social media. And they are expressing hope that an end to the war will also bring an end to sanctions that have battered the economy. According to estimates by groups tracking war deaths, more than 150,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and many more wounded in a conflict that has ground on for three years. Hundreds of thousands of people fled the country fearing a forced mobilization or crackdowns on those opposing the invasion or expressing other forms of dissent. On the home front, Russians have had to cope with shortages of commodities, and soaring prices and interest rates. On social media, some whose relatives and friends have been devastated by the war are still preoccupied with familiar questions: How can they get loved ones away from the front lines? Can they get benefits for partners who have been killed in the fighting? For many Russians, Washington's sudden about-face toward their country appears to have led to a surge of admiration for and interest in President Trump. In Moscow, sales of Trump's books and books about geopolitics have soared since January, one of the leading bookstore chains told Kommersant, a Russian business daily. A leading Russian publisher said it had run out of copies of 'Trump: The Art of The Deal' and that sales of 'Think Like a Champion,' another book by Trump, had increased threefold. Advertisement So far, reports about brands and direct flights to the United States returning to Russia have been purely speculative. There are no plans to restore direct flights between Moscow and US cities, and no Western brands have officially announced their return to Russia. Still, rumors that they would be back — speculation that was amplified by state media as signals that Russia had prevailed in the conflict with the West — were indicative of the overall mood. Anatoly Aksakov, a Russian lawmaker in the lower house of parliament, expressed confidence that the likes of Visa and Mastercard would want to reenter the country's market. 'Obviously, they want to return to the Russian market faster, so that they can make money on it,' Aksakov said. And since a phone call between Trump and Putin last week, state television has been trumpeting what it portrays as Russia's restored stature on the global stage. Dmitri Kiselyov, host of Vesti Nedeli, the flagship Sunday news show on Russian state television, said the call between the two presidents was 'a political earthquake, or more precisely, a devastating tsunami for America's European allies.' He added, 'The White House struck them in the heart by declaring the system of current European values false and even harmful.' Others were more cautious. Artyom Sheynin, host of a political talk show on Channel One, started his broadcast Tuesday by examining a picture of Russian and US officials meeting in Riyadh, the Saudi capital. 'Everyone sat nearly impenetrably stone-faced,' Sheynin said. 'This indicates symbolically where our attempt to turn the clock back starts from,' he added. 'We are doing it without any 100 percent guarantee that we will be able to succeed.' Advertisement Some conservatives, whose nationalist views have become highly influential in Russia over the course of the war, have also expressed skepticism that the talks will produce quick results. They have even suggested that the negotiations could undermine their country's self-reliance. Zakhar Prilepin, a popular conservative writer, warned in a post Tuesday that the return of Western brands could hurt Russian companies that have been stepping up production in response to the sanctions and shortages of Western goods. This article originally appeared in
