4 days ago
Libman: Maybe it's time to hit pause on our dizzying dance with Trump
I remember as a kid frenetically chasing after a rubber Superball as it bounced around, careening off everything, not knowing where it would bounce next, constantly out of reach.
That's what it must feel like to deal with Donald Trump and try to figure out a way to pin down a complicated trade agreement, of all things. International trade, commerce and business need economic stability and predictability. In Canada's history, we've never had to face such a wild card U.S. presidency and been forced to navigate as volatile a relationship with our largest trading partner.
Every day seems to bring a different turn. The goalposts seem to move whenever a new idea or insult pops into Trump's head — which he broadcasts on social media — surprising our politicians.
There's often no common-sense rationale with Trump. It's dizzying, infuriating and in many ways surreal. One day his chiding of Canada could be related to fentanyl, the next illegal immigrants or imaginary trade imbalances. Perhaps disdain due to slights by our former prime minister still lingers, or maybe current PM Mark Carey hasn't been flattering enough. Who knows?
Many Canadians boldly want to see an 'elbows up' approach of defiance. But let's face it — economically we're at the mercy of our much bigger U.S. neighbour. Particularly with this president, as with most bullies or egomaniacs, any attempt at fighting back is likely to backfire.
When Ontario Premier Doug Ford threatened to impose a 25-per-cent surcharge on electricity exports to three U.S. states, Trump roared, threatening a 50-per-cent retaliatory tariff the next day, causing Ford to meekly scurry backwards. Trump's flunky, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, said '(Trump) needed to break some guy in Ontario who said he was going to tax American energy.' Lutnick himself often looks foolish, talking in a vacuum without any idea what his boss might decide the next day.
Our politicians don't seem to have any game plan or know how to handle this, as they have no idea what to expect next. Federal ministers Dominic LeBlanc, François-Philippe Champagne, Anita Anand and Mélanie Joly seem to be running like hamsters on a wheel. You also get the sense Carney is constantly biting his tongue to avoid criticizing the president, knowing it could boomerang.
Last week, not having reached a deal by the Aug. 1 deadline, Trump raised the tariff rate from 25 to 35 per cent on Canadian goods not covered under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, again evoking Canada's failure to control the 'ongoing flood of fentanyl and other illicit drugs.' Fentanyl seizures from Canada are less than 0.1 per cent of total U.S. seizures of the drug, but facts are irrelevant in this alternate reality.
Perhaps it's time our federal government just went back to governing and stopped this dance. The more we dance, the more Trump will make us dance. If a deal is struck, fine — but patience may be a more sensible approach than scrambling for a deal, any deal.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington is soon expected to rule on whether Trump's tariffs are even legal under the Constitution, which grants Congress powers over trade. Trump has circumvented this by claiming he can use presidential emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, something the judges hearing the case have skeptically questioned.
Also, the cost impact of tariffs — the higher wages to American workers to produce goods and materials in the U.S., rather than importing at a lower price — presumably will soon start hitting Americans in their wallets. Only if Americans wake up and start questioning Trump's policies will he likely blink.
Maybe it's time to stop chasing the ball for now and let the courts and other economic indicators shape the narrative.
Robert Libman is an architect and planning consultant who has served as Equality Party leader and MNA, mayor of Côte-St-Luc and a member of the Montreal executive committee. He was a Conservative candidate in the 2015 federal election.
