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By Deborah Haynes, Sky News security and defence editor"The Russians are signalling that there may be - let's call it what it is - there may be an attack." Fictional UK Home Secretary The warning from the home secretary at an emergency Cobra meeting is stark. The prime minister must decide what to do after the Kremlin deployed a large task force of warships, fighter jets and submarines to the North Atlantic. Russian ships in the Baltic earlier this year. Credit: AP/Russian Defence Ministry The whole of the United Kingdom is within range of their missiles. Russia and the UK are both nuclear-armed powers. President Vladimir Putin has threatened the UK in the past. Pic: AP President Vladimir Putin has threatened the UK in the past. Pic: AP"The best outcome is this is just a show of force. The worst outcome is this is setting a force in order to attack the UK." Chief of the Defence Staff This is the opening scene of a new five-part podcast series from Sky News and Tortoise called The Wargame. It simulates a Russian attack on the UK. Listen to The Wargame on your podcast app The scenario is described as very low likelihood but high impact. That means a low chance of it happening but catastrophic consequences if it did. Image captions Setting up The Wargame... A year in the making, but recorded in just one day, The Wargame explores the reality of the threat that Vladimir Putin's Russia could pose to Britain, its people and normal, everyday life. Listen to Sky's security and defence editor Deborah Haynes outline how the game works in the video above. Inside The Wargame emergency meeting room. The Wargame also tests the true state of the UK's defences and national resilience after decades of cost-saving cuts since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. And the scenario imagines how the UK's allies might respond, in particular the United States: would they mobilise to defend Britain in a crisis? Everything going on in The Wargame was recorded The scenario is based in the near future and pitches a fictional British government against a team of Russia experts in an imagined Kremlin. Rob Johnson, who heads the Changing Character of War Centre at Oxford University, agreed to create the game after I approached him about the idea last year. I said I would find the players and turn the project into a podcast. The Wargame is the kind of exercise that is genuinely tested inside government. The main difference, though, is that nothing discussed in Rob's version is classified. It means we are able to make the whole thing public. A year in the making, but recorded in just one day, The Wargame explores the reality of the threat that Vladimir Putin's Russia could pose to Britain, its people and normal, everyday life. The Wargame also tests the true state of the UK's defences and national resilience after decades of cost-saving cuts since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Listen to Sky's security and defence editor Deborah Haynes outline how The Wargame works And the scenario imagines how the UK's allies might respond, in particular the United States: would they mobilise to defend Britain in a crisis? The scenario is based in the near future and pitches a fictional British government against a team of Russia experts in an imagined Kremlin. Rob Johnson, who heads the Changing Character of War Centre at Oxford University, agreed to create the game after I approached him about the idea last year. Inside The Wargame Cobra room Inside The Wargame Cobra room I said I would find the players and turn the project into a podcast. The Wargame is the kind of exercise that is genuinely tested inside government. The main difference, though, is that nothing discussed in Rob's version is classified. It means we are able to make the whole thing public. Image captions I assembled a cast of former ministers, military and security chiefs and other experts to play the British and Russian governments. No one received any payment for taking part in The Wargame. Former Conservative defence secretary Sir Ben Wallace, who was at the forefront of Britain's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, plays the PM. Jack Straw, who served under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, steps back into the foreign secretary job. Home secretary under Theresa May, Amber Rudd steps back into her old position. The other members of our Cobra team are: Jim Murphy (Labour), a former secretary of state for Scotland, as chancellor. James Heappey (Conservative), previously the armed forces minister, is the defence secretary. Baroness Helena Kennedy Baroness Helena Kennedy Baroness Helena Kennedy (Labour), a barrister and expert on human rights law, agreed to become the attorney general. Lord Mark Sedwill is the national security adviser, a role he held for real from 2017 to 2020. General Sir Richard Barrons plays the role of Chief of the Defence Staff. He is a former senior commander who was a co-author of a major defence review published last week by the government. General Sir Richard Barrons General Sir Richard Barrons Lieutenant General Sir David Capewell, a former chief of joint operations, reprises his role as the UK's warfighting commander. Victorian Mackarness, a communications expert, plays the role of Downing Street press secretary. Image captions Episode 1 of The Wargame is called 'False Flag'. It begins at 5pm on Sunday 5 October, 2025. Listen to a clip from The Wargame podcast in which our fictional PM begins the emergency meeting in the video above. The Wargame's PM Sir Ben Wallace. Ben Wallace, the prime minister, has just called an emergency Cobra meeting after police in Norfolk discover the bodies of two of the Royal Air Force's elite F-35 fighter pilots. They suspect a Russian assassination plot. The attorney general and home secretary look on It comes after a bomb attack devastated a naval base in northern Russia, killing dozens of sailors. The Kremlin says British spies were to blame. London has denied involvement but the Russian side is not listening. Its deployment of a heavily-armed task force to the North Atlantic is an exceptionally aggressive move. The British government must decide what to do next. Episode 1 of The Wargame is called 'False Flag'. It begins at 5pm on Sunday 5 October 2025. Listen to a clip from The Wargame podcast in which our fictional PM begins the fictional emergency meeting Ben Wallace, the prime minister, has just called an emergency Cobra meeting after police in Norfolk discover the bodies of two of the Royal Air Force's elite F-35 fighter pilots. They suspect a Russian assassination plot. It comes after a bomb attack devastated a naval base in northern Russia, killing dozens of sailors. The Kremlin says British spies were to blame. London has denied involvement but the Russian side is not listening. Its deployment of a heavily armed taskforce to the North Atlantic is an exceptionally aggressive move. The British government must decide what to do next. Image captions You might wonder why two news organisations chose to run a wargame. Let me explain. When the Cold War ended, successive governments decided to switch funding away from defence and into peacetime priorities such as health, welfare and economic growth. It was seen as a "peace dividend" following the collapse of the Soviet Union, with politicians and the public gambling on a belief that the threat of war on the homefront was over. The UK is a founding member of NATO. Pic: AP The UK is a founding member of NATO. Pic: AP If things did go wrong, the thinking went, the United States, with its vast and powerful armed forces, would still have our back as part of the NATO alliance. Like most people of my generation - I am 48 - I have a fuzzy memory of the Cold War. But for my entire adult life, people living in Britain have not generally needed to worry about an existential conflict destroying their everyday lives, so public awareness about what that would mean in reality has unsurprisingly lapsed. Russian soldiers ride a T-90M Proryv tank. Pic: AP/Russian Defence Ministry Russian soldiers ride a T-90M Proryv tank. Pic: AP/Russian Defence Ministry By contrast, the credible sense of imminent peril is what enabled heavy investment on defence and deterrence to continue long after the guns in the Second World War fell silent. As an insurance policy, it felt like a bargain compared with the devastating cost of total war. Experts say Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 should have been the wake-up call for the UK and Europe to take defence and national resilience seriously once more. Russian soldiers operate a drone in Ukraine. Pic: AP/Russian Defence Ministry Russian soldiers operate a drone in Ukraine. Pic: AP/Russian Defence Ministry But because this country still feels pretty safe, it's perhaps hard to understand why or even whether it matters. It made me wonder, what if we simulate an emergency and find out how the UK might respond? Whatever the outcome, it would at least bring back to life the reality of the threat. Image captions The home secretary has a question."Do you have any view, prime minister, or perhaps the foreign secretary will, about what the Russians are after? What are they trying to achieve? Is it anything in particular or is it retaliation for an event that took place that we weren't in fact responsible for, but they want to show a response to?" Listen to a clip from The Wargame podcast in which our national security adviser discusses the challenges posed by Russia in the video above. James Heappey playing defence secretary The prime minister replies: "Well, one of the challenges is Russia has a long track record of false flag for the purpose of its own agenda." A false flag can mean an action - like a bombing or an assassination - that is done by one side but blamed on the other to create a fake pretext to attack them. Attribution is also hard, making it difficult for the accused to prove their innocence. The prime minister wants to mobilise the military to do what it can to deter the threat. His military chief recommends deploying the few warships and jets that are available. The defence secretary has two concerns."We will not be able to deploy that amount of force in secret," he says."Secondly, it won't escape the notice of many in the commentariat that what we do deploy is still overmatched by what the Russians have deployed." The home secretary has a question."Do you have any view, prime minister, or perhaps the foreign secretary will, about what the Russians are after? What are they trying to achieve? Is it anything in particular or is it retaliation for an event that took place that we weren't in fact responsible for, but they want to show a response to?" Listen to a clip from The Wargame podcast in which Lord Mark Sedwill discusses the challenges posed by Russia The prime minister replies: "Well, one of the challenges is Russia has a long track record of false flag for the purpose of its own agenda." A false flag can mean an action - like a bombing or an assassination - that is done by one side but blamed on the other to create a fake pretext to attack them. Attribution is also hard, making it difficult for the accused to prove their innocence. James Heappey playing Defence Secretary James Heappey playing Defence Secretary The prime minister wants to mobilise the military to do what it can to deter the threat. His military chief recommends deploying the few warships and jets that are available. The defence secretary has two concerns."We will not be able to deploy that amount of force in secret," he says. "Secondly, it won't escape the notice of many in the commentariat that what we do deploy is still overmatched by what the Russians have deployed." Image captions Rob Johnson explains how his scenario was created."I had to go away and do a bit of research," he says. "What was it like in the Cold War? What capabilities did we have? What were the emergency procedures? What did they look like?""Then I looked at how we could create that sensation inside a room. So we chose a bunker. We also mocked up some documents," he says."We've created some maps… We've got a Russia team.. We had to ask them: what would Russia do?" Our imagined Kremlin is led by Keir Giles, an author and Russia expert, who - like the rest of his team - has long experience of playing the "red team" in wargames. Keir Giles led the fictional Kremlin team Keir Giles led the fictional Kremlin team"Ordinarily when this red team gets together… we run rings around the opposition." This is "partly because Russia has the initiative, partly because Russia has the tools [and] partly because Russia has the will and the determination to cause damage sometimes in ways that the opposition… doesn't imagine before the game actually starts". Listen to The Wargame on your podcast app Image captions Deciding where to run the game was key. We wanted to simulate the government's emergency Cobra meeting, chaired by our fictional prime minister and held in a bunker. We also needed a second room to be a pretend Permanent Joint Headquarters (PJHQ) for the military. Finally, we had to create a Kremlin, where our Russian president would assemble with this team. Tortoise Media agreed to turn the basement of their building into the set of The Wargame. Concern from Home Secretary Amber Rudd Concern from Home Secretary Amber Rudd It has a web of corridors that connect to multiple rooms, making the site an ideal venue. The largest underground room was used for the Cobra (Cabinet Office Briefing Room) crisis meetings, with ministers and top officials positioned around a long table. A bank of screens lines the wall at one end of the room. Maps can be displayed on the screens. Your browser does not support this video The foreign secretary and national security advisor in The Wargame The foreign secretary and national security advisor in The Wargame Crucially, they also provide a video link for the Cobra team to request a call with an imagined US secretary of state as well as the head of the NATO alliance whenever they choose. James Shield, a producer at Tortoise, asked Professor Phillips O'Brien, the head of international studies at the University of St Andrews, to be our top American diplomat. Elisabeth Braw, a leading expert on security and defence, plays the NATO chief. The Wargame's NATO Secretary-General, Elisabeth Braw The Wargame's NATO Secretary-General, Elisabeth Braw Across a narrow corridor from the Cobra meeting area is a smaller room, which we pretend is the military headquarters. This is where our chief of joint operations and a team of six advisers, with expertise in defence, security and national resilience, assemble. At the other end of the basement, along a corridor and through two doors, in another fairly large room, we establish the Russia side. Image captions As the person running the show, Rob is the games master, leading what is known as the white cell. He has several helpers who must provide new pieces of information to different players as the game progresses - these are known as "injects". Rob also sits in the main Cobra meeting, taking on the role of chair of the joint intelligence committee, who provides all the intelligence updates. Your browser does not support this video General Sir Richard Barrons as Chief of the Defence Staff General Sir Richard Barrons as Chief of the Defence Staff The game is slightly unusual because the Russian red team knows beforehand the main moves they will make. Their primary role is to explain the Kremlin's way of thinking and why it might be taking such actions. By contrast, the British blue team has no idea what is about to happen and must do the best they can to defend Britain. A moment of shock? A moment of shock? To inject a further sense of realism into the three rooms, we mock up news reports to cover moments of drama as they unfold. Katie Gunning, a former BBC newsreader, is the voice of our pretend British rolling news channel, while Valeriy Akimenko, an expert on Russian state communications, will help us craft imagined Russian state media bulletins. Image captions"We are calling on our allies internationally to join with the United Kingdom to defend collectively and to fight back."The message is we are not alone and Russia must understand that they cannot bully, intimidate or strike us without serious consequences." Prime Minister Ben Wallace in The Wargame The Wargame comes at a time when national defence and resilience is back in focus. The UK and its European allies are expected to agree to a big hike in defence spending to keep Donald Trump on side when they gather for a NATO summit later this month. Sir Keir Starmer also published a major review of defence last week that said Britain must rebuild its armed forces and get ready for war because the threat of conflict with a nuclear power like Russia or China is real. Sir Keir Starmer on the deck of the HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carrier. Pic: PA Sir Keir Starmer on the deck of the HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carrier. Pic: PA Russia denied posing a danger. Its embassy in London said: "Russia poses no threat to the United Kingdom and its people. "We harbour no aggressive intentions and have no plans to attack Britain. We are not interested in doing so, nor do we need to." Responding to the review's recommendations, the prime minister said the UK will make more submarines, build more weapons factories and buy more missiles. He also pledged to boost the reserve forces, expand a military cadet force and revive wider national resilience. But returning the nation to one that is better prepared for war will be expensive and it will require the whole country to play their part. Whether that happens and how quickly then comes down to choice. The first two episodes of The Wargame are out now. Two more will be released on 17 June and the final episode will be out on 24 June. Click below to follow The Wargame wherever you get your podcasts. Listen to The Wargame on your podcast app Image captions Deborah Haynes speaks to The Wargame participants Deborah Haynes speaks to The Wargame participants CREDITS Reporting: Deborah Haynes, security and defence editor Production: Katy Scholes, defence and security producer Shorthand production: Michael Drummond, foreign news reporter Editing: Alessandra Rizzo, output editor Design: Rachel McCarthy, Stephen Whistance, Fedele Rinaldi, Arianne Cantwell and Eloise Atter, designers Pictures: Reuters, Associated Press, PA The Wargame podcast: Production: James Shield, series producer, Jess Swinburne, development producer and Katy Scholes Sound design and original music: Tom Kinsella Editing: Paul Stanworth, commissioning editor and Jasper Corbett (Tortoise) Executive producers: Sarah Whitehead and David Mapstone Top Built with Shorthand The Wargame podcast: What if Russia attacked the UK? 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By Deborah Haynes, Sky News security and defence editor"The Russians are signalling that there may be - let's call it what it is - there may be an attack." Fictional UK Home Secretary The warning from the home secretary at an emergency Cobra meeting is stark. The prime minister must decide what to do after the Kremlin deployed a large task force of warships, fighter jets and submarines to the North Atlantic. Russian ships in the Baltic earlier this year. Credit: AP/Russian Defence Ministry The whole of the United Kingdom is within range of their missiles. Russia and the UK are both nuclear-armed powers. President Vladimir Putin has threatened the UK in the past. Pic: AP President Vladimir Putin has threatened the UK in the past. Pic: AP"The best outcome is this is just a show of force. The worst outcome is this is setting a force in order to attack the UK." Chief of the Defence Staff This is the opening scene of a new five-part podcast series from Sky News and Tortoise called The Wargame. It simulates a Russian attack on the UK. Listen to The Wargame on your podcast app The scenario is described as very low likelihood but high impact. That means a low chance of it happening but catastrophic consequences if it did. Image captions Setting up The Wargame... A year in the making, but recorded in just one day, The Wargame explores the reality of the threat that Vladimir Putin's Russia could pose to Britain, its people and normal, everyday life. Listen to Sky's security and defence editor Deborah Haynes outline how the game works in the video above. Inside The Wargame emergency meeting room. The Wargame also tests the true state of the UK's defences and national resilience after decades of cost-saving cuts since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. And the scenario imagines how the UK's allies might respond, in particular the United States: would they mobilise to defend Britain in a crisis? Everything going on in The Wargame was recorded The scenario is based in the near future and pitches a fictional British government against a team of Russia experts in an imagined Kremlin. Rob Johnson, who heads the Changing Character of War Centre at Oxford University, agreed to create the game after I approached him about the idea last year. I said I would find the players and turn the project into a podcast. The Wargame is the kind of exercise that is genuinely tested inside government. The main difference, though, is that nothing discussed in Rob's version is classified. It means we are able to make the whole thing public. A year in the making, but recorded in just one day, The Wargame explores the reality of the threat that Vladimir Putin's Russia could pose to Britain, its people and normal, everyday life. The Wargame also tests the true state of the UK's defences and national resilience after decades of cost-saving cuts since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Listen to Sky's security and defence editor Deborah Haynes outline how The Wargame works And the scenario imagines how the UK's allies might respond, in particular the United States: would they mobilise to defend Britain in a crisis? The scenario is based in the near future and pitches a fictional British government against a team of Russia experts in an imagined Kremlin. Rob Johnson, who heads the Changing Character of War Centre at Oxford University, agreed to create the game after I approached him about the idea last year. Inside The Wargame Cobra room Inside The Wargame Cobra room I said I would find the players and turn the project into a podcast. The Wargame is the kind of exercise that is genuinely tested inside government. The main difference, though, is that nothing discussed in Rob's version is classified. It means we are able to make the whole thing public. Image captions I assembled a cast of former ministers, military and security chiefs and other experts to play the British and Russian governments. No one received any payment for taking part in The Wargame. Former Conservative defence secretary Sir Ben Wallace, who was at the forefront of Britain's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, plays the PM. Jack Straw, who served under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, steps back into the foreign secretary job. Home secretary under Theresa May, Amber Rudd steps back into her old position. The other members of our Cobra team are: Jim Murphy (Labour), a former secretary of state for Scotland, as chancellor. James Heappey (Conservative), previously the armed forces minister, is the defence secretary. Baroness Helena Kennedy Baroness Helena Kennedy Baroness Helena Kennedy (Labour), a barrister and expert on human rights law, agreed to become the attorney general. Lord Mark Sedwill is the national security adviser, a role he held for real from 2017 to 2020. General Sir Richard Barrons plays the role of Chief of the Defence Staff. He is a former senior commander who was a co-author of a major defence review published last week by the government. General Sir Richard Barrons General Sir Richard Barrons Lieutenant General Sir David Capewell, a former chief of joint operations, reprises his role as the UK's warfighting commander. Victorian Mackarness, a communications expert, plays the role of Downing Street press secretary. Image captions Episode 1 of The Wargame is called 'False Flag'. It begins at 5pm on Sunday 5 October, 2025. Listen to a clip from The Wargame podcast in which our fictional PM begins the emergency meeting in the video above. The Wargame's PM Sir Ben Wallace. Ben Wallace, the prime minister, has just called an emergency Cobra meeting after police in Norfolk discover the bodies of two of the Royal Air Force's elite F-35 fighter pilots. They suspect a Russian assassination plot. The attorney general and home secretary look on It comes after a bomb attack devastated a naval base in northern Russia, killing dozens of sailors. The Kremlin says British spies were to blame. London has denied involvement but the Russian side is not listening. Its deployment of a heavily-armed task force to the North Atlantic is an exceptionally aggressive move. The British government must decide what to do next. Episode 1 of The Wargame is called 'False Flag'. It begins at 5pm on Sunday 5 October 2025. Listen to a clip from The Wargame podcast in which our fictional PM begins the fictional emergency meeting Ben Wallace, the prime minister, has just called an emergency Cobra meeting after police in Norfolk discover the bodies of two of the Royal Air Force's elite F-35 fighter pilots. They suspect a Russian assassination plot. It comes after a bomb attack devastated a naval base in northern Russia, killing dozens of sailors. The Kremlin says British spies were to blame. London has denied involvement but the Russian side is not listening. Its deployment of a heavily armed taskforce to the North Atlantic is an exceptionally aggressive move. The British government must decide what to do next. Image captions You might wonder why two news organisations chose to run a wargame. Let me explain. When the Cold War ended, successive governments decided to switch funding away from defence and into peacetime priorities such as health, welfare and economic growth. It was seen as a "peace dividend" following the collapse of the Soviet Union, with politicians and the public gambling on a belief that the threat of war on the homefront was over. The UK is a founding member of NATO. Pic: AP The UK is a founding member of NATO. Pic: AP If things did go wrong, the thinking went, the United States, with its vast and powerful armed forces, would still have our back as part of the NATO alliance. Like most people of my generation - I am 48 - I have a fuzzy memory of the Cold War. But for my entire adult life, people living in Britain have not generally needed to worry about an existential conflict destroying their everyday lives, so public awareness about what that would mean in reality has unsurprisingly lapsed. Russian soldiers ride a T-90M Proryv tank. Pic: AP/Russian Defence Ministry Russian soldiers ride a T-90M Proryv tank. Pic: AP/Russian Defence Ministry By contrast, the credible sense of imminent peril is what enabled heavy investment on defence and deterrence to continue long after the guns in the Second World War fell silent. As an insurance policy, it felt like a bargain compared with the devastating cost of total war. Experts say Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 should have been the wake-up call for the UK and Europe to take defence and national resilience seriously once more. Russian soldiers operate a drone in Ukraine. Pic: AP/Russian Defence Ministry Russian soldiers operate a drone in Ukraine. Pic: AP/Russian Defence Ministry But because this country still feels pretty safe, it's perhaps hard to understand why or even whether it matters. It made me wonder, what if we simulate an emergency and find out how the UK might respond? Whatever the outcome, it would at least bring back to life the reality of the threat. Image captions The home secretary has a question."Do you have any view, prime minister, or perhaps the foreign secretary will, about what the Russians are after? What are they trying to achieve? Is it anything in particular or is it retaliation for an event that took place that we weren't in fact responsible for, but they want to show a response to?" Listen to a clip from The Wargame podcast in which our national security adviser discusses the challenges posed by Russia in the video above. James Heappey playing defence secretary The prime minister replies: "Well, one of the challenges is Russia has a long track record of false flag for the purpose of its own agenda." A false flag can mean an action - like a bombing or an assassination - that is done by one side but blamed on the other to create a fake pretext to attack them. Attribution is also hard, making it difficult for the accused to prove their innocence. The prime minister wants to mobilise the military to do what it can to deter the threat. His military chief recommends deploying the few warships and jets that are available. The defence secretary has two concerns."We will not be able to deploy that amount of force in secret," he says."Secondly, it won't escape the notice of many in the commentariat that what we do deploy is still overmatched by what the Russians have deployed." The home secretary has a question."Do you have any view, prime minister, or perhaps the foreign secretary will, about what the Russians are after? What are they trying to achieve? Is it anything in particular or is it retaliation for an event that took place that we weren't in fact responsible for, but they want to show a response to?" Listen to a clip from The Wargame podcast in which Lord Mark Sedwill discusses the challenges posed by Russia The prime minister replies: "Well, one of the challenges is Russia has a long track record of false flag for the purpose of its own agenda." A false flag can mean an action - like a bombing or an assassination - that is done by one side but blamed on the other to create a fake pretext to attack them. Attribution is also hard, making it difficult for the accused to prove their innocence. James Heappey playing Defence Secretary James Heappey playing Defence Secretary The prime minister wants to mobilise the military to do what it can to deter the threat. His military chief recommends deploying the few warships and jets that are available. The defence secretary has two concerns."We will not be able to deploy that amount of force in secret," he says. "Secondly, it won't escape the notice of many in the commentariat that what we do deploy is still overmatched by what the Russians have deployed." Image captions Rob Johnson explains how his scenario was created."I had to go away and do a bit of research," he says. "What was it like in the Cold War? What capabilities did we have? What were the emergency procedures? What did they look like?""Then I looked at how we could create that sensation inside a room. So we chose a bunker. We also mocked up some documents," he says."We've created some maps… We've got a Russia team.. We had to ask them: what would Russia do?" Our imagined Kremlin is led by Keir Giles, an author and Russia expert, who - like the rest of his team - has long experience of playing the "red team" in wargames. Keir Giles led the fictional Kremlin team Keir Giles led the fictional Kremlin team"Ordinarily when this red team gets together… we run rings around the opposition." This is "partly because Russia has the initiative, partly because Russia has the tools [and] partly because Russia has the will and the determination to cause damage sometimes in ways that the opposition… doesn't imagine before the game actually starts". Listen to The Wargame on your podcast app Image captions Deciding where to run the game was key. We wanted to simulate the government's emergency Cobra meeting, chaired by our fictional prime minister and held in a bunker. We also needed a second room to be a pretend Permanent Joint Headquarters (PJHQ) for the military. Finally, we had to create a Kremlin, where our Russian president would assemble with this team. Tortoise Media agreed to turn the basement of their building into the set of The Wargame. Concern from Home Secretary Amber Rudd Concern from Home Secretary Amber Rudd It has a web of corridors that connect to multiple rooms, making the site an ideal venue. The largest underground room was used for the Cobra (Cabinet Office Briefing Room) crisis meetings, with ministers and top officials positioned around a long table. A bank of screens lines the wall at one end of the room. Maps can be displayed on the screens. Your browser does not support this video The foreign secretary and national security advisor in The Wargame The foreign secretary and national security advisor in The Wargame Crucially, they also provide a video link for the Cobra team to request a call with an imagined US secretary of state as well as the head of the NATO alliance whenever they choose. James Shield, a producer at Tortoise, asked Professor Phillips O'Brien, the head of international studies at the University of St Andrews, to be our top American diplomat. Elisabeth Braw, a leading expert on security and defence, plays the NATO chief. The Wargame's NATO Secretary-General, Elisabeth Braw The Wargame's NATO Secretary-General, Elisabeth Braw Across a narrow corridor from the Cobra meeting area is a smaller room, which we pretend is the military headquarters. This is where our chief of joint operations and a team of six advisers, with expertise in defence, security and national resilience, assemble. At the other end of the basement, along a corridor and through two doors, in another fairly large room, we establish the Russia side. Image captions As the person running the show, Rob is the games master, leading what is known as the white cell. He has several helpers who must provide new pieces of information to different players as the game progresses - these are known as "injects". Rob also sits in the main Cobra meeting, taking on the role of chair of the joint intelligence committee, who provides all the intelligence updates. Your browser does not support this video General Sir Richard Barrons as Chief of the Defence Staff General Sir Richard Barrons as Chief of the Defence Staff The game is slightly unusual because the Russian red team knows beforehand the main moves they will make. Their primary role is to explain the Kremlin's way of thinking and why it might be taking such actions. By contrast, the British blue team has no idea what is about to happen and must do the best they can to defend Britain. A moment of shock? A moment of shock? To inject a further sense of realism into the three rooms, we mock up news reports to cover moments of drama as they unfold. Katie Gunning, a former BBC newsreader, is the voice of our pretend British rolling news channel, while Valeriy Akimenko, an expert on Russian state communications, will help us craft imagined Russian state media bulletins. Image captions"We are calling on our allies internationally to join with the United Kingdom to defend collectively and to fight back."The message is we are not alone and Russia must understand that they cannot bully, intimidate or strike us without serious consequences." Prime Minister Ben Wallace in The Wargame The Wargame comes at a time when national defence and resilience is back in focus. The UK and its European allies are expected to agree to a big hike in defence spending to keep Donald Trump on side when they gather for a NATO summit later this month. Sir Keir Starmer also published a major review of defence last week that said Britain must rebuild its armed forces and get ready for war because the threat of conflict with a nuclear power like Russia or China is real. Sir Keir Starmer on the deck of the HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carrier. Pic: PA Sir Keir Starmer on the deck of the HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carrier. Pic: PA Russia denied posing a danger. Its embassy in London said: "Russia poses no threat to the United Kingdom and its people. "We harbour no aggressive intentions and have no plans to attack Britain. We are not interested in doing so, nor do we need to." Responding to the review's recommendations, the prime minister said the UK will make more submarines, build more weapons factories and buy more missiles. He also pledged to boost the reserve forces, expand a military cadet force and revive wider national resilience. But returning the nation to one that is better prepared for war will be expensive and it will require the whole country to play their part. Whether that happens and how quickly then comes down to choice. The first two episodes of The Wargame are out now. Two more will be released on 17 June and the final episode will be out on 24 June. Click below to follow The Wargame wherever you get your podcasts. Listen to The Wargame on your podcast app Image captions Deborah Haynes speaks to The Wargame participants Deborah Haynes speaks to The Wargame participants CREDITS Reporting: Deborah Haynes, security and defence editor Production: Katy Scholes, defence and security producer Shorthand production: Michael Drummond, foreign news reporter Editing: Alessandra Rizzo, output editor Design: Rachel McCarthy, Stephen Whistance, Fedele Rinaldi, Arianne Cantwell and Eloise Atter, designers Pictures: Reuters, Associated Press, PA The Wargame podcast: Production: James Shield, series producer, Jess Swinburne, development producer and Katy Scholes Sound design and original music: Tom Kinsella Editing: Paul Stanworth, commissioning editor and Jasper Corbett (Tortoise) Executive producers: Sarah Whitehead and David Mapstone Top Built with Shorthand The Wargame podcast: What if Russia attacked the UK? This content is provided by The Wargame podcast: What if Russia attacked the UK?, which may be using cookies and other technologies. To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies. You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable The Wargame podcast: What if Russia attacked the UK? cookies or to allow those cookies just once. You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options. Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to The Wargame podcast: What if Russia attacked the UK? cookies. To view this content you can use the button below to allow The Wargame podcast: What if Russia attacked the UK? cookies for this session only. Enable Cookies Allow Cookies Once

Sky News

time16 hours ago

  • Politics
  • Sky News

By Deborah Haynes, Sky News security and defence editor"The Russians are signalling that there may be - let's call it what it is - there may be an attack." Fictional UK Home Secretary The warning from the home secretary at an emergency Cobra meeting is stark. The prime minister must decide what to do after the Kremlin deployed a large task force of warships, fighter jets and submarines to the North Atlantic. Russian ships in the Baltic earlier this year. Credit: AP/Russian Defence Ministry The whole of the United Kingdom is within range of their missiles. Russia and the UK are both nuclear-armed powers. President Vladimir Putin has threatened the UK in the past. Pic: AP President Vladimir Putin has threatened the UK in the past. Pic: AP"The best outcome is this is just a show of force. The worst outcome is this is setting a force in order to attack the UK." Chief of the Defence Staff This is the opening scene of a new five-part podcast series from Sky News and Tortoise called The Wargame. It simulates a Russian attack on the UK. Listen to The Wargame on your podcast app The scenario is described as very low likelihood but high impact. That means a low chance of it happening but catastrophic consequences if it did. Image captions Setting up The Wargame... A year in the making, but recorded in just one day, The Wargame explores the reality of the threat that Vladimir Putin's Russia could pose to Britain, its people and normal, everyday life. Listen to Sky's security and defence editor Deborah Haynes outline how the game works in the video above. Inside The Wargame emergency meeting room. The Wargame also tests the true state of the UK's defences and national resilience after decades of cost-saving cuts since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. And the scenario imagines how the UK's allies might respond, in particular the United States: would they mobilise to defend Britain in a crisis? Everything going on in The Wargame was recorded The scenario is based in the near future and pitches a fictional British government against a team of Russia experts in an imagined Kremlin. Rob Johnson, who heads the Changing Character of War Centre at Oxford University, agreed to create the game after I approached him about the idea last year. I said I would find the players and turn the project into a podcast. The Wargame is the kind of exercise that is genuinely tested inside government. The main difference, though, is that nothing discussed in Rob's version is classified. It means we are able to make the whole thing public. A year in the making, but recorded in just one day, The Wargame explores the reality of the threat that Vladimir Putin's Russia could pose to Britain, its people and normal, everyday life. The Wargame also tests the true state of the UK's defences and national resilience after decades of cost-saving cuts since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Listen to Sky's security and defence editor Deborah Haynes outline how The Wargame works And the scenario imagines how the UK's allies might respond, in particular the United States: would they mobilise to defend Britain in a crisis? The scenario is based in the near future and pitches a fictional British government against a team of Russia experts in an imagined Kremlin. Rob Johnson, who heads the Changing Character of War Centre at Oxford University, agreed to create the game after I approached him about the idea last year. Inside The Wargame Cobra room Inside The Wargame Cobra room I said I would find the players and turn the project into a podcast. The Wargame is the kind of exercise that is genuinely tested inside government. The main difference, though, is that nothing discussed in Rob's version is classified. It means we are able to make the whole thing public. Image captions I assembled a cast of former ministers, military and security chiefs and other experts to play the British and Russian governments. No one received any payment for taking part in The Wargame. Former Conservative defence secretary Sir Ben Wallace, who was at the forefront of Britain's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, plays the PM. Jack Straw, who served under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, steps back into the foreign secretary job. Home secretary under Theresa May, Amber Rudd steps back into her old position. The other members of our Cobra team are: Jim Murphy (Labour), a former secretary of state for Scotland, as chancellor. James Heappey (Conservative), previously the armed forces minister, is the defence secretary. Baroness Helena Kennedy Baroness Helena Kennedy Baroness Helena Kennedy (Labour), a barrister and expert on human rights law, agreed to become the attorney general. Lord Mark Sedwill is the national security adviser, a role he held for real from 2017 to 2020. General Sir Richard Barrons plays the role of Chief of the Defence Staff. He is a former senior commander who was a co-author of a major defence review published last week by the government. General Sir Richard Barrons General Sir Richard Barrons Lieutenant General Sir David Capewell, a former chief of joint operations, reprises his role as the UK's warfighting commander. Victorian Mackarness, a communications expert, plays the role of Downing Street press secretary. Image captions Episode 1 of The Wargame is called 'False Flag'. It begins at 5pm on Sunday 5 October, 2025. Listen to a clip from The Wargame podcast in which our fictional PM begins the emergency meeting in the video above. The Wargame's PM Sir Ben Wallace. Ben Wallace, the prime minister, has just called an emergency Cobra meeting after police in Norfolk discover the bodies of two of the Royal Air Force's elite F-35 fighter pilots. They suspect a Russian assassination plot. The attorney general and home secretary look on It comes after a bomb attack devastated a naval base in northern Russia, killing dozens of sailors. The Kremlin says British spies were to blame. London has denied involvement but the Russian side is not listening. Its deployment of a heavily-armed task force to the North Atlantic is an exceptionally aggressive move. The British government must decide what to do next. Episode 1 of The Wargame is called 'False Flag'. It begins at 5pm on Sunday 5 October 2025. Listen to a clip from The Wargame podcast in which our fictional PM begins the fictional emergency meeting Ben Wallace, the prime minister, has just called an emergency Cobra meeting after police in Norfolk discover the bodies of two of the Royal Air Force's elite F-35 fighter pilots. They suspect a Russian assassination plot. It comes after a bomb attack devastated a naval base in northern Russia, killing dozens of sailors. The Kremlin says British spies were to blame. London has denied involvement but the Russian side is not listening. Its deployment of a heavily armed taskforce to the North Atlantic is an exceptionally aggressive move. The British government must decide what to do next. Image captions You might wonder why two news organisations chose to run a wargame. Let me explain. When the Cold War ended, successive governments decided to switch funding away from defence and into peacetime priorities such as health, welfare and economic growth. It was seen as a "peace dividend" following the collapse of the Soviet Union, with politicians and the public gambling on a belief that the threat of war on the homefront was over. The UK is a founding member of NATO. Pic: AP The UK is a founding member of NATO. Pic: AP If things did go wrong, the thinking went, the United States, with its vast and powerful armed forces, would still have our back as part of the NATO alliance. Like most people of my generation - I am 48 - I have a fuzzy memory of the Cold War. But for my entire adult life, people living in Britain have not generally needed to worry about an existential conflict destroying their everyday lives, so public awareness about what that would mean in reality has unsurprisingly lapsed. Russian soldiers ride a T-90M Proryv tank. Pic: AP/Russian Defence Ministry Russian soldiers ride a T-90M Proryv tank. Pic: AP/Russian Defence Ministry By contrast, the credible sense of imminent peril is what enabled heavy investment on defence and deterrence to continue long after the guns in the Second World War fell silent. As an insurance policy, it felt like a bargain compared with the devastating cost of total war. Experts say Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 should have been the wake-up call for the UK and Europe to take defence and national resilience seriously once more. Russian soldiers operate a drone in Ukraine. Pic: AP/Russian Defence Ministry Russian soldiers operate a drone in Ukraine. Pic: AP/Russian Defence Ministry But because this country still feels pretty safe, it's perhaps hard to understand why or even whether it matters. It made me wonder, what if we simulate an emergency and find out how the UK might respond? Whatever the outcome, it would at least bring back to life the reality of the threat. Image captions The home secretary has a question."Do you have any view, prime minister, or perhaps the foreign secretary will, about what the Russians are after? What are they trying to achieve? Is it anything in particular or is it retaliation for an event that took place that we weren't in fact responsible for, but they want to show a response to?" Listen to a clip from The Wargame podcast in which our national security adviser discusses the challenges posed by Russia in the video above. James Heappey playing defence secretary The prime minister replies: "Well, one of the challenges is Russia has a long track record of false flag for the purpose of its own agenda." A false flag can mean an action - like a bombing or an assassination - that is done by one side but blamed on the other to create a fake pretext to attack them. Attribution is also hard, making it difficult for the accused to prove their innocence. The prime minister wants to mobilise the military to do what it can to deter the threat. His military chief recommends deploying the few warships and jets that are available. The defence secretary has two concerns."We will not be able to deploy that amount of force in secret," he says."Secondly, it won't escape the notice of many in the commentariat that what we do deploy is still overmatched by what the Russians have deployed." The home secretary has a question."Do you have any view, prime minister, or perhaps the foreign secretary will, about what the Russians are after? What are they trying to achieve? Is it anything in particular or is it retaliation for an event that took place that we weren't in fact responsible for, but they want to show a response to?" Listen to a clip from The Wargame podcast in which Lord Mark Sedwill discusses the challenges posed by Russia The prime minister replies: "Well, one of the challenges is Russia has a long track record of false flag for the purpose of its own agenda." A false flag can mean an action - like a bombing or an assassination - that is done by one side but blamed on the other to create a fake pretext to attack them. Attribution is also hard, making it difficult for the accused to prove their innocence. James Heappey playing Defence Secretary James Heappey playing Defence Secretary The prime minister wants to mobilise the military to do what it can to deter the threat. His military chief recommends deploying the few warships and jets that are available. The defence secretary has two concerns."We will not be able to deploy that amount of force in secret," he says. "Secondly, it won't escape the notice of many in the commentariat that what we do deploy is still overmatched by what the Russians have deployed." Image captions Rob Johnson explains how his scenario was created."I had to go away and do a bit of research," he says. "What was it like in the Cold War? What capabilities did we have? What were the emergency procedures? What did they look like?""Then I looked at how we could create that sensation inside a room. So we chose a bunker. We also mocked up some documents," he says."We've created some maps… We've got a Russia team.. We had to ask them: what would Russia do?" Our imagined Kremlin is led by Keir Giles, an author and Russia expert, who - like the rest of his team - has long experience of playing the "red team" in wargames. Keir Giles led the fictional Kremlin team Keir Giles led the fictional Kremlin team"Ordinarily when this red team gets together… we run rings around the opposition." This is "partly because Russia has the initiative, partly because Russia has the tools [and] partly because Russia has the will and the determination to cause damage sometimes in ways that the opposition… doesn't imagine before the game actually starts". Listen to The Wargame on your podcast app Image captions Deciding where to run the game was key. We wanted to simulate the government's emergency Cobra meeting, chaired by our fictional prime minister and held in a bunker. We also needed a second room to be a pretend Permanent Joint Headquarters (PJHQ) for the military. Finally, we had to create a Kremlin, where our Russian president would assemble with this team. Tortoise Media agreed to turn the basement of their building into the set of The Wargame. Concern from Home Secretary Amber Rudd Concern from Home Secretary Amber Rudd It has a web of corridors that connect to multiple rooms, making the site an ideal venue. The largest underground room was used for the Cobra (Cabinet Office Briefing Room) crisis meetings, with ministers and top officials positioned around a long table. A bank of screens lines the wall at one end of the room. Maps can be displayed on the screens. Your browser does not support this video The foreign secretary and national security advisor in The Wargame The foreign secretary and national security advisor in The Wargame Crucially, they also provide a video link for the Cobra team to request a call with an imagined US secretary of state as well as the head of the NATO alliance whenever they choose. James Shield, a producer at Tortoise, asked Professor Phillips O'Brien, the head of international studies at the University of St Andrews, to be our top American diplomat. Elisabeth Braw, a leading expert on security and defence, plays the NATO chief. The Wargame's NATO Secretary-General, Elisabeth Braw The Wargame's NATO Secretary-General, Elisabeth Braw Across a narrow corridor from the Cobra meeting area is a smaller room, which we pretend is the military headquarters. This is where our chief of joint operations and a team of six advisers, with expertise in defence, security and national resilience, assemble. At the other end of the basement, along a corridor and through two doors, in another fairly large room, we establish the Russia side. Image captions As the person running the show, Rob is the games master, leading what is known as the white cell. He has several helpers who must provide new pieces of information to different players as the game progresses - these are known as "injects". Rob also sits in the main Cobra meeting, taking on the role of chair of the joint intelligence committee, who provides all the intelligence updates. Your browser does not support this video General Sir Richard Barrons as Chief of the Defence Staff General Sir Richard Barrons as Chief of the Defence Staff The game is slightly unusual because the Russian red team knows beforehand the main moves they will make. Their primary role is to explain the Kremlin's way of thinking and why it might be taking such actions. By contrast, the British blue team has no idea what is about to happen and must do the best they can to defend Britain. A moment of shock? A moment of shock? To inject a further sense of realism into the three rooms, we mock up news reports to cover moments of drama as they unfold. Katie Gunning, a former BBC newsreader, is the voice of our pretend British rolling news channel, while Valeriy Akimenko, an expert on Russian state communications, will help us craft imagined Russian state media bulletins. Image captions"We are calling on our allies internationally to join with the United Kingdom to defend collectively and to fight back."The message is we are not alone and Russia must understand that they cannot bully, intimidate or strike us without serious consequences." Prime Minister Ben Wallace in The Wargame The Wargame comes at a time when national defence and resilience is back in focus. The UK and its European allies are expected to agree to a big hike in defence spending to keep Donald Trump on side when they gather for a NATO summit later this month. Sir Keir Starmer also published a major review of defence last week that said Britain must rebuild its armed forces and get ready for war because the threat of conflict with a nuclear power like Russia or China is real. Sir Keir Starmer on the deck of the HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carrier. Pic: PA Sir Keir Starmer on the deck of the HMS Prince of Wales aircraft carrier. Pic: PA Russia denied posing a danger. Its embassy in London said: "Russia poses no threat to the United Kingdom and its people. "We harbour no aggressive intentions and have no plans to attack Britain. We are not interested in doing so, nor do we need to." Responding to the review's recommendations, the prime minister said the UK will make more submarines, build more weapons factories and buy more missiles. He also pledged to boost the reserve forces, expand a military cadet force and revive wider national resilience. But returning the nation to one that is better prepared for war will be expensive and it will require the whole country to play their part. Whether that happens and how quickly then comes down to choice. The first two episodes of The Wargame are out now. Two more will be released on 17 June and the final episode will be out on 24 June. Click below to follow The Wargame wherever you get your podcasts. Listen to The Wargame on your podcast app Image captions Deborah Haynes speaks to The Wargame participants Deborah Haynes speaks to The Wargame participants CREDITS Reporting: Deborah Haynes, security and defence editor Production: Katy Scholes, defence and security producer Shorthand production: Michael Drummond, foreign news reporter Editing: Alessandra Rizzo, output editor Design: Rachel McCarthy, Stephen Whistance, Fedele Rinaldi, Arianne Cantwell and Eloise Atter, designers Pictures: Reuters, Associated Press, PA The Wargame podcast: Production: James Shield, series producer, Jess Swinburne, development producer and Katy Scholes Sound design and original music: Tom Kinsella Editing: Paul Stanworth, commissioning editor and Jasper Corbett (Tortoise) Executive producers: Sarah Whitehead and David Mapstone Top Built with Shorthand The Wargame podcast: What if Russia attacked the UK? This content is provided by The Wargame podcast: What if Russia attacked the UK?, which may be using cookies and other technologies. To show you this content, we need your permission to use cookies. You can use the buttons below to amend your preferences to enable The Wargame podcast: What if Russia attacked the UK? cookies or to allow those cookies just once. You can change your settings at any time via the Privacy Options. Unfortunately we have been unable to verify if you have consented to The Wargame podcast: What if Russia attacked the UK? cookies. To view this content you can use the button below to allow The Wargame podcast: What if Russia attacked the UK? cookies for this session only. Enable Cookies Allow Cookies Once

By Deborah Haynes, Sky News security and defence editor "The Russians are signalling that there may be - let's call it what it is - there may be an attack." Fictional UK Home Secretary The warning from the home secretary at an emergency Cobra meeting is stark. The prime minister must decide what to do after the Kremlin deployed a large task force of warships, fighter jets and submarines to the North Atlantic. The whole of the United Kingdom is within range of their missiles. Russia and the UK are both nuclear-armed powers. "The best outcome is this is just a show of force. The worst outcome is this is setting a force in order to attack the UK." Chief of the Defence Staff This is the opening scene of a new five-part podcast series from Sky News and Tortoise called The Wargame. It simulates a Russian attack on the UK. Listen to The Wargame on your podcast app The scenario is described as very low likelihood but high impact. That means a low chance of it happening but catastrophic consequences if it did. A year in the making, but recorded in just one day, The Wargame explores the reality of the threat that Vladimir Putin's Russia could pose to Britain, its people and normal, everyday life. The Wargame also tests the true state of the UK's defences and national resilience after decades of cost-saving cuts since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. And the scenario imagines how the UK's allies might respond, in particular the United States: would they mobilise to defend Britain in a crisis? The scenario is based in the near future and pitches a fictional British government against a team of Russia experts in an imagined Kremlin. Rob Johnson, who heads the Changing Character of War Centre at Oxford University, agreed to create the game after I approached him about the idea last year. I said I would find the players and turn the project into a podcast. The Wargame is the kind of exercise that is genuinely tested inside government. The main difference, though, is that nothing discussed in Rob's version is classified. It means we are able to make the whole thing public. I assembled a cast of former ministers, military and security chiefs and other experts to play the British and Russian governments. No one received any payment for taking part in The Wargame. Former Conservative defence secretary Sir Ben Wallace, who was at the forefront of Britain's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, plays the PM. Jack Straw, who served under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, steps back into the foreign secretary job. Home secretary under Theresa May, Amber Rudd steps back into her old position. The other members of our Cobra team are: Jim Murphy (Labour), a former secretary of state for Scotland, as chancellor. James Heappey (Conservative), previously the armed forces minister, is the defence secretary. Baroness Helena Kennedy (Labour), a barrister and expert on human rights law, agreed to become the attorney general. Lord Mark Sedwill is the national security adviser, a role he held for real from 2017 to 2020. General Sir Richard Barrons plays the role of Chief of the Defence Staff. He is a former senior commander who was a co-author of a major defence review published last week by the government. Lieutenant General Sir David Capewell, a former chief of joint operations, reprises his role as the UK's warfighting commander. Victorian Mackarness, a communications expert, plays the role of Downing Street press secretary. Episode 1 of The Wargame is called 'False Flag'. It begins at 5pm on Sunday 5 October 2025. Ben Wallace, the prime minister, has just called an emergency Cobra meeting after police in Norfolk discover the bodies of two of the Royal Air Force's elite F-35 fighter pilots. They suspect a Russian assassination plot. It comes after a bomb attack devastated a naval base in northern Russia, killing dozens of sailors. The Kremlin says British spies were to blame. London has denied involvement but the Russian side is not listening. Its deployment of a heavily armed taskforce to the North Atlantic is an exceptionally aggressive move. The British government must decide what to do next. You might wonder why two news organisations chose to run a wargame. Let me explain. When the Cold War ended, successive governments decided to switch funding away from defence and into peacetime priorities such as health, welfare and economic growth. It was seen as a "peace dividend" following the collapse of the Soviet Union, with politicians and the public gambling on a belief that the threat of war on the homefront was over. If things did go wrong, the thinking went, the United States, with its vast and powerful armed forces, would still have our back as part of the NATO alliance. Like most people of my generation - I am 48 - I have a fuzzy memory of the Cold War. But for my entire adult life, people living in Britain have not generally needed to worry about an existential conflict destroying their everyday lives, so public awareness about what that would mean in reality has unsurprisingly lapsed. By contrast, the credible sense of imminent peril is what enabled heavy investment on defence and deterrence to continue long after the guns in the Second World War fell silent. As an insurance policy, it felt like a bargain compared with the devastating cost of total war. Experts say Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 should have been the wake-up call for the UK and Europe to take defence and national resilience seriously once more. But because this country still feels pretty safe, it's perhaps hard to understand why or even whether it matters. It made me wonder, what if we simulate an emergency and find out how the UK might respond? Whatever the outcome, it would at least bring back to life the reality of the threat. The home secretary has a question. "Do you have any view, prime minister, or perhaps the foreign secretary will, about what the Russians are after? What are they trying to achieve? Is it anything in particular or is it retaliation for an event that took place that we weren't in fact responsible for, but they want to show a response to?" The prime minister replies: "Well, one of the challenges is Russia has a long track record of false flag for the purpose of its own agenda." A false flag can mean an action - like a bombing or an assassination - that is done by one side but blamed on the other to create a fake pretext to attack them. Attribution is also hard, making it difficult for the accused to prove their innocence. The prime minister wants to mobilise the military to do what it can to deter the threat. His military chief recommends deploying the few warships and jets that are available. The defence secretary has two concerns. "We will not be able to deploy that amount of force in secret," he says. "Secondly, it won't escape the notice of many in the commentariat that what we do deploy is still overmatched by what the Russians have deployed." Rob Johnson explains how his scenario was created. "I had to go away and do a bit of research," he says. "What was it like in the Cold War? What capabilities did we have? What were the emergency procedures? What did they look like?" "Then I looked at how we could create that sensation inside a room. So we chose a bunker. We also mocked up some documents," he says. "We've created some maps… We've got a Russia team.. We had to ask them: what would Russia do?" Our imagined Kremlin is led by Keir Giles, an author and Russia expert, who - like the rest of his team - has long experience of playing the "red team" in wargames. "Ordinarily when this red team gets together… we run rings around the opposition." This is "partly because Russia has the initiative, partly because Russia has the tools [and] partly because Russia has the will and the determination to cause damage sometimes in ways that the opposition… doesn't imagine before the game actually starts". Listen to The Wargame on your podcast app Deciding where to run the game was key. We wanted to simulate the government's emergency Cobra meeting, chaired by our fictional prime minister and held in a bunker. We also needed a second room to be a pretend Permanent Joint Headquarters (PJHQ) for the military. Finally, we had to create a Kremlin, where our Russian president would assemble with this team. Tortoise Media agreed to turn the basement of their building into the set of The Wargame. It has a web of corridors that connect to multiple rooms, making the site an ideal venue. The largest underground room was used for the Cobra (Cabinet Office Briefing Room) crisis meetings, with ministers and top officials positioned around a long table. A bank of screens lines the wall at one end of the room. Maps can be displayed on the screens. Crucially, they also provide a video link for the Cobra team to request a call with an imagined US secretary of state as well as the head of the NATO alliance whenever they choose. James Shield, a producer at Tortoise, asked Professor Phillips O'Brien, the head of international studies at the University of St Andrews, to be our top American diplomat. Elisabeth Braw, a leading expert on security and defence, plays the NATO chief. Across a narrow corridor from the Cobra meeting area is a smaller room, which we pretend is the military headquarters. This is where our chief of joint operations and a team of six advisers, with expertise in defence, security and national resilience, assemble. At the other end of the basement, along a corridor and through two doors, in another fairly large room, we establish the Russia side. As the person running the show, Rob is the games master, leading what is known as the white cell. He has several helpers who must provide new pieces of information to different players as the game progresses - these are known as "injects". Rob also sits in the main Cobra meeting, taking on the role of chair of the joint intelligence committee, who provides all the intelligence updates. The game is slightly unusual because the Russian red team knows beforehand the main moves they will make. Their primary role is to explain the Kremlin's way of thinking and why it might be taking such actions. By contrast, the British blue team has no idea what is about to happen and must do the best they can to defend Britain. To inject a further sense of realism into the three rooms, we mock up news reports to cover moments of drama as they unfold. Katie Gunning, a former BBC newsreader, is the voice of our pretend British rolling news channel, while Valeriy Akimenko, an expert on Russian state communications, will help us craft imagined Russian state media bulletins. "We are calling on our allies internationally to join with the United Kingdom to defend collectively and to fight back. "The message is we are not alone and Russia must understand that they cannot bully, intimidate or strike us without serious consequences." Prime Minister Ben Wallace in The Wargame The Wargame comes at a time when national defence and resilience is back in focus. The UK and its European allies are expected to agree to a big hike in defence spending to keep Donald Trump on side when they gather for a NATO summit later this month. Sir Keir Starmer also published a major review of defence last week that said Britain must rebuild its armed forces and get ready for war because the threat of conflict with a nuclear power like Russia or China is real. Russia denied posing a danger. Its embassy in London said: "Russia poses no threat to the United Kingdom and its people. "We harbour no aggressive intentions and have no plans to attack Britain. We are not interested in doing so, nor do we need to." Responding to the review's recommendations, the prime minister said the UK will make more submarines, build more weapons factories and buy more missiles. He also pledged to boost the reserve forces, expand a military cadet force and revive wider national resilience. But returning the nation to one that is better prepared for war will be expensive and it will require the whole country to play their part. Whether that happens and how quickly then comes down to choice. The first two episodes of The Wargame are out now. Two more will be released on 17 June and the final episode will be out on 24 June. Click below to follow The Wargame wherever you get your podcasts. Listen to The Wargame on your podcast app CREDITS Reporting: Deborah Haynes, security and defence editor Production: Katy Scholes, defence and security producer Shorthand production: Michael Drummond, foreign news reporter Editing: Alessandra Rizzo, output editor Design: Rachel McCarthy, Stephen Whistance, Fedele Rinaldi, Arianne Cantwell and Eloise Atter, designers Pictures: Reuters, Associated Press, PA The Wargame podcast: Production: James Shield, series producer, Jess Swinburne, development producer and Katy Scholes Sound design and original music: Tom Kinsella Editing: Paul Stanworth, commissioning editor and Jasper Corbett (Tortoise) Executive producers: Sarah Whitehead and David Mapstone Top Built with Shorthand

Russia is already at war with Britain and we can no longer rely on Trump, defence adviser warns
Russia is already at war with Britain and we can no longer rely on Trump, defence adviser warns

The Independent

time3 days ago

  • Politics
  • The Independent

Russia is already at war with Britain and we can no longer rely on Trump, defence adviser warns

Britain is at war with Russia already, one of the authors of the government's strategic defence review has warned, while arguing that we can no longer depend on the US as a reliable ally. Dr Fiona Hill, who served as the White House's chief Russia adviser during Donald Trump 's first term in office, said the UK is in 'pretty big trouble', warning that the country is stuck between 'the rock' of Russia and the 'hard place' of an increasingly unreliable US under Mr Trump. 'Russia has hardened as an adversary in ways that we probably hadn't fully anticipated,' Dr Hill told the Guardian, concluding that 'Russia is at war with us'. Arguing that the Kremlin has been 'menacing the UK in various different ways' for years, she pointed to 'the poisonings, assassinations, sabotage operations, all kinds of cyber-attacks and influence operations. The sensors that we see that they're putting down around critical pipelines, efforts to butcher undersea cables.' Unveiling the SDR last week - authored by Dr Hill, Lord Robertson and General Sir Richard Barrons - defence secretary John Healey said Britain's army needed to become '10 times more lethal' in the face of the 'immediate and pressing threat" from Russia and the rise of China. 'We are in a new era of threat, which demands a new era for UK defence,' he told MPs. The review found that the armed forces are not ready to fight its opponents as a result of inadequate stockpiles of weapons, medical services that cannot cope with a mass-casualty conflict and a personnel 'crisis' that means only a small number of troops are ready to be deployed. Meanwhile, General Sir Richard Barrons, warned that a cruise missile was 'only 90 minutes away from the UK'. But Sir Keir Starmer vowed to make Britain "a battle-ready, armour-clad nation' as he unveiled the SDR at the Govan shipbuilding yard in Scotland, which included an army boosted to 100,000 personnel, 12 new submarines, drones and a rollout of Artificial Intelligence. But questions were raised over the government's big ambitions to make Britain 'safer and stronger' after Sir Keir refused to commit to spending 3 per cent of Britain's gross domestic product on defence by 2034 — which the review warned was essential to ensure the plans were affordable. Dr Hill, who was highly critical of the Trump administration, said Britain could no longer rely on the US's military umbrella as it did during the cold war, at least 'not in the way that we did before'. It comes after the SDR contained a similar warning, saying: 'The UK's longstanding assumptions about global power balances and structures are no longer certain.' The defence adviser argued that the US president 'really wants to have a separate relationship with Putin to do arms control agreements and also business that will probably enrich their entourages further, though Putin doesn't need any more enrichment'. Speaking about Mr Trump's White House, Dr Hill warned it is 'not an administration, it is a court', arguing that the president is driven primarily by his 'own desires and interests, and who listens often to the last person he talks to'. Speaking about the rise of the populist right in the US, she expressed concerns it could do well in British electoral politics if 'the same culture wars' are allowed to grow in influence. Warning of the impact of Reform UK, she said: 'When Nigel Farage says he wants to do a Doge against the local county council, he should come over here [to the US] and see what kind of impact that has. 'This is going to be the largest layoffs in US history happening all at once, much bigger than hits to steelworks and coalmines.' Doge (the Department of Government Efficiency) is an initiative by the second Trump administration, which aims to cut wasteful spending.

US warns Starmer it is 'important' UK hits new Nato target for spending 3.5% of GDP on defence as Labour struggles to balance the books
US warns Starmer it is 'important' UK hits new Nato target for spending 3.5% of GDP on defence as Labour struggles to balance the books

Daily Mail​

time5 days ago

  • Business
  • Daily Mail​

US warns Starmer it is 'important' UK hits new Nato target for spending 3.5% of GDP on defence as Labour struggles to balance the books

The US has warned Keir Starmer that it is 'important' the UK hits Nato 's proposed new defence spending target. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered the message as he met ministers from the military alliance in Brussels. After pressure from Donald Trump, states are expected to be asked to agree to commit 3.5 per cent of GDP by the 2030s at a summit later this month. A further 1.5 per cent would be required for defence-related measures. However, there are questions about how the UK would fund such a huge increase - equivalent to tens of billions of pounds a year. Britain allocated 2.33 per cent of GDP to defence last year, and Sir Keir has committed to reaching 2.5 per cent by April 2027. The government has an 'ambition' of increasing that to 3 per cent in the next parliament - likely to run to 2034. However, the PM and Defence Secretary John Healey have already come under pressure to explain how the 3 per cent target could be met. Senior figures including former Nato chief and Labour minister Lord Robertson have questioned whether the new goals are 'realistic'. Mr Hegseth was asked this morning whether he believed the UK would meet the new even higher level. 'Our friends in the UK, we're going to get there... I think it's important they do,' he said. The US official said: 'It's a deterrence and peace through strength, but it can't be reliance. It cannot and will not be reliance on America in a world of a lot of threats.' Standing alongside Nato general secretary Mark Rutte, Mr Hegseth said: 'Every shoulder has to be to the plough. 'Every country has to contribute at that level of 5 per cent as a recognition of the threat.' Sir Keir is due to host Mr Rutte - the former Netherlands PM - in London on Monday. The PM's official spokesman said: 'The two leaders have spoken a number of times and this will be the second time that Mr Rutte has visited the Prime Minister at Downing Street. 'You can expect the Prime Minister to raise how we can ensure all allies meet their stated pledges in support of our collective defence, to keep people safe.' The spokesman added: 'It is worth recognising the UK's track record on spending and indeed our contribution to Nato, both in terms of our spending and our capabilities.' Countries such as Germany face finding upwards of $60billion a year more for the military if the mooted increase in the target goes ahead. The increase in Italy would be equivalent to around $46billion, Canada $45billion, France £44billion and the UK roughly $40billion. Spain - which has not invested heavily in defence up to now - could need to allocate an additional $36billion despite its economy being much smaller.

Starmer vows to make Britain ‘battle-ready' — but row over funding threatens to derail plans
Starmer vows to make Britain ‘battle-ready' — but row over funding threatens to derail plans

The Independent

time02-06-2025

  • Business
  • The Independent

Starmer vows to make Britain ‘battle-ready' — but row over funding threatens to derail plans

Keir Starmer's bold defence plans have been overshadowed by a row over money as he was warned Britain may not be moving quickly enough to counter the rapidly growing threats from Russia. The prime minister vowed to make Britain "a battle-ready, armour-clad nation' as he unveiled his strategic defence review (SDR) at the Govan shipbuilding yard in Scotland, which included a 'more lethal' Army boosted to 100,000 personnel, 12 new submarines, drones and a rollout of Artificial Intelligence. But questions were raised over Sir Keir's big ambitions to make Britain 'safer and stronger' after he refused to commit to spending 3 per cent of Britain's gross domestic product on defence by 2034 — which the review warned was essential to ensure the plans were affordable. With a backdrop of 'turbulent times' and a promise to learn lessons from the Ukraine conflict, the report even warned 'it may be necessary to go faster' on increasing the UK's defence capabilities. They noted: 'Russia is already menacing our skies and our waters, and threatening cyber-attacks, so this is a real threat we're dealing with.' The long-awaited 130-page SDR, put together for the government by a team headed by Labour peer and former Nato chief Lord George Robertson, made 62 eye-catching recommendations, including: Making the Armed Forces 'ten times more lethal' while increasing the size from 80,000 to 100,000 personnel Building up to 12 attack submarines for the Royal Navy as part of the Australia-UK-US Aukus Procuring up to 7,000 long-range weapons built in the UK and opening of at least six new munitions factories Using more AI and technology, including creating a team of cyber and tech experts to be deployed alongside military personnel Teaching school children more about the army as parts of moves to reconnect the armed forces and wider society Unveiling the details of the review, Sir Keir said he was "100% confident" the plans to make Britain 'ready for war' could be delivered on current funding plans. The government has promised to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027, and has an 'ambition' – but no firm commitment – to hike it to 3 per cent in the next parliament. But the document's authors warned the recommendations would be unaffordable unless Sir Keir stuck to the 'vital' commitment to raise the funding. It said: 'The government's important decision to raise defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027/28 and, vitally, to 3 per cent in the next Parliament made an enormous difference. The decision established the affordability of our recommendations across a 10-year programme.' Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), also warned that the only way to pay for the increased defence budget would be through 'chunky tax rises' as the government grapples with other key areas of public spending. He told Times Radio: "It looks like the government wants to reinstate the winter fuel payment. It's thinking about the two-child limit for benefits. We've got a spending review next week. And if we're really going to spend another £10 to15 billion a year on defence, whilst inevitably we're going to spend more and more on health and pensions and so on, you really do have to ask that question, what are the choices that you're going to make? 'Bluntly, it really does seem to me that the only choice that is available, if we're going to go through all of those things, is some really quite chunky tax increases to pay for it." A Tory source added: 'Before it has already been released, their recommendations will now be 'unaffordable' without the firm commitment for 3% of spending by the next parliament.' Launching the review in the shadow of Type 26 frigates being built in BAE Systems' shipyard in Govan, Glasgow, Sir Keir said three 'fundamental changes" would be made to the UK's defence. He said the UK was moving to 'war-fighting readiness', adding: "When we are being directly threatened by states with advanced military forces, the most effective way to deter them is to be ready, and frankly, to show them that we're ready to deliver peace through strength." The second change is that the government will adopt a "Nato-first" stance towards defence so that everything it does adds to the strength of the alliance. Sir Keir added: "Third, we will innovate and accelerate innovation at a wartime pace, so we can meet the threats of today and of tomorrow, as the fastest innovator in Nato." The report also recommends more lessons about the army in schools, as well as an attempt to boost the army cadets numbers by 30 per cent to 250,000. The report calls on the MOD to work with the Department for Education to 'develop understanding of the Armed Forces among young people in schools,' as part of moves to improve relations with wider society. Along with more submarines, there will also be more F35 fighters. It is hoped that investments in more equipment such as 12 new Astute submarines will drive economic growth with jobs across the UK in places like Glasgow and Derby. A new Defence Readiness Bill is to be put before Parliament giving ministers powers to 'respond effectively' in a crisis. Sir Keir also flagged up his aim to create a hybrid Royal Navy with greater use of AI, as well as creating a new Digital Warfighter Group with 'appropriate recruitment and pay freedoms'. At least ten per cent of the MOD equipment procurement budget should be spent on new technologies every year, the report noted, with an added recommendation that barriers for collaboration with industry partners should be removed. Savings will be made by cutting the cost of the civil service defence workforce by 10 per cent. This will include a switch from back office to front office by automating 20 per cent of HR, finance and commercial functions by summer 2028 'as a minimum first step'.

Sterling firms with focus on defence plan, weaker dollar
Sterling firms with focus on defence plan, weaker dollar

Reuters

time02-06-2025

  • Business
  • Reuters

Sterling firms with focus on defence plan, weaker dollar

June 2 (Reuters) - Sterling had a firm start to the week on Monday, as investors assessed a domestic defence plan and a batch of better-than-expected British economic data, while simmering trade tensions between the U.S. and China eroded appetite for the dollar. The mood among investors generally was sour, after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he planned to double duties on imported steel and aluminium to 50% from this Wednesday, and as Beijing hit back against accusations it violated an agreement on critical mineral shipments. The pound rose 0.53% to $1.3531 by 1056 GMT, largely as a function of the dollar's broad decline against a range of currencies. Against the euro , sterling was virtually flat at 84.37 pence. In the UK, investors weighed the impact that the latest effort to expand its defence systems could have on public spending, with a defence review expected to be published on Monday. "Fiscal constraints will... limit how much the UK can invest into its defence arsenal – prompting questions around the sustainability of the government's fiscal framework," Deutsche Bank senior economist Sanjay Raja said. "A potentially bigger role for the UK in European defence and security will require larger incentives from the EU vis-à-vis a refined trade deal." Concerns are that Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government could cause fiscal debt levels to balloon as defence spending rises, at a time when investors have been demanding a higher rate of returns from longer-dated developed market debt. Yields on benchmark 10-year gilts were little changed on the day around 4.67%. On the data front, markets were relieved that a survey showed that the downturn in British manufacturing was less steep than first feared in May. Separately, UK house prices in May were 3.5% higher than a year earlier, monthly data from mortgage lender Nationwide showed, helped by buyers that sought to complete transactions before the end of a partial exemption on purchase taxes. While upbeat consumer demand against a broader cloudy economic outlook globally have aided appetite for UK assets, signs of persistent price pressures have been a concern and led investors now to price in just a little more than one more 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Bank of England this year. Comments from policymaker Catherine Mann later in the day could shed more light on the central bank's policy outlook. The pound is trading close to more than three-year highs it hit last month as investors viewed the UK economy as better insulated from trade threats, while U.S.-dollar denominated assets have declined.

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