14-07-2025
Groundhog Day within A Bipolar World, But A New Economic World Order for Africa: A Crucial Opportunity To Propel the African Continental Free Trade Area
Dr Dawn Isabel Nagar discusses the challenges and opportunities facing Africa in a bipolar world, highlighting the potential for the African Continental Free Trade Area to drive economic growth and development.
Image: IOL / Ron AI
By Dr Dawn Isabel Nagar, University of Johannesburg, South Africa
The world has become like Groundhog Day with the old issues infused with the new ones – a deja vu – an unfortunate reality, a serious hopelessness, which will certainly not reach the United Nations (UN) 2030 Global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Agenda, fast becoming a pipe-dream. Amid the sea of chaos, is an emergence of a new economic world order, provided to Africa, a great opportunity to use Putman's two-level game theory to its advantage ; see also Nagar, 'UN-AU Relations: Towards Sustainable Peace and Economic Development: The Attainment of Agenda 2063' in, African Union and Agenda 2063: Past, Present and Future Matlosa and Adeola, eds., UJ Press, 2025. The world's ongoing wars clearly shows a pattern of economic deluge, particularly for least developed and developed states. The severity of economic impacts is continuing – with an ever-evolving amoeba effect – changing shapes –shape-shifters, but always the same issues at play.
Currently: the world is facing a dangerous bipolar world order, where superpower rivalry of the world's largest economies: China and the US is competing for power. The US is determined to uphold its slogan of 'making America great again'. Greed and grievance are placing Israel and the US at the forefront of how global order ought to flow in defiance of multilateralism. Globally, multilateralism is to move states and societies across boundaries: criss-crossing trade, politics and security – the world is supposedly to be interconnected. But the UN 1945 Charter with all its critical organs is stifled and severely challenged. Several policies are closing borders while others display dangerous schizophrenic state behaviour.
Geopolitics are displaying danger to world order. Such behaviours are demonstrated in great appetites to expand and gobble up countries, for example (the case of Canada against the US, 2025). Similarly, the same superpower is displaying double standards and shouting 'racism' and land-grabbers. Such are the false accusations made against South Africa, accusing the country of expelling their White farmers. A dangerous rhetoric promoted by a superpower's attempts to destroy a peaceful South Africa (the case of South Africa against the US, 2025). Africa must not be swayed by world chaos. Particularly with a country such as South Africa that has transitioned from a devastating apartheid past into a peaceful democracy and boast a government of national unity. Africa must unite against barbaric behaviours and hold fast to it its democratic principles and be determined not to import racism.
These are all done in attempts to derail Africa's powerhouse: South Africa. This country has great leverage to elevate the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) with other strong industrialised Africa economies, such as the Seychelles, Mauritius, Egypt, Nigeria, Kenya, Rwanda, Ghana and among others, particularly at the forthcoming Group of Twenty States (G20) November 2025 summit. Africa's key instrument is a crucial pillar – a contemporary club in hand –– the African Continental Free Trade Area: and can drive its own agenda of greater value-addition and industrialisation among its 55 member states. This new economic world order is coming as a great opportunity to Africa's advantage and challenge this international disorder and to oppose neo-colonialist, neo-mercantilist, neo-realist and racist policies of the superpowers such as the US, (which will soon turn realism to its own demise) and to Africa's advantage.
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Africa's interdependency among and between states should become more and more reliant within the bloc. The fourth industrial revolution (4IR/4.0) and soon to enter Fifth Industrial Revolution (5IR/5.0) era, where artificial intelligence and technological advancements is moving at a tumultuous pace offers great opportunity for a youthful Africa (60 percent of its 1.4 billion people are youth).
However, in a bipolar world order, when power dynamics and greed work against the stream – and while the world is going forward the dictates of realism is moving the world into the opposite direction, which is having catastrophic effects (and are growing at an exponential pace) within the international relations systems. As realism dictates: within the international relations discipline: powerful states will use their economic and military muscle to achieve their parochial interests at all costs, and in-so-doing such actions have consequences. These consequences mean the pursuit of wars, humanitarian disasters, the loss of millions of lives, internally displaced persons, and the increased numbers of economies plummeting – regardless: the interests of the realist state in its entirety takes preference.
On Africa's part, the continent with the most least developed and poverty-stricken states in the world, just minutes into President Trump's presidency, had to experience the wrath of the Trump Administration's tariff hikes. President Trump indeed fulfilled his campaign promises that brought him into power (see particularly, Dr Dawn Nagar, <"How President Donald Trump's cutting off of SA's US funding helps Africa fight 'begging bowl syndrome">, Independent Online, March 2025; and 30 years of South Africa's Regional Economic Integration Role in Southern Africa and Its Attempt to Improve SADC's Regional Political Economy: Progress, Problems and Prospects, 1994–2024', Dawn Nagar, 2025 research paper, SAIIA forthcoming]).
The AfCFTA must be the priority and top the agenda at the forthcoming G20 summit – the body which was established in December 1999 at a Berlin Conference – a crucial intergovernmental economic forum comprising 19 countries and two regional unions – the European Union (EU) and the African Union, which South Africa will be hosting in November 2025. South Africa must address its comparative advantage initiatives to South Africa's G20 theme: Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainable Development aligned to the AfCFTA. Africa's issues must be pursued with the correct trading partners at the G20 November 2025 Summit meeting in South Africa.
Within a new economic world order and to become the game-changer, the AfCFTA must accurately address pressing continental-wide sustainable development gaps and challenges important to its people. The bloc must consider clear rules of engagement with strategic international partners. Africa has great potential, for example, North, West, Southern and East Africa are all oil crude petroleum producing countries with Africa comprising 7 countries of the 15-member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC) including: Algeria, Angola, Congo Brazzaville, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria; these states must use their comparative advantage to build the AfCFTA. On South Africa's part, this country's automotive sector is not shallow and have the resources and research at hand to propel its automotive industry, .'
To produce value-add industrialisation that considers climate change and the environment, require solid research and development knowledge that is clear and precise on how to capture and create carbon carriers and storage – and the University of Johannesburg has solid research-backing and leading on these issues. The AfCFTA must use academic muscle to propel Africa's continental goals at the 2025 G20 Summit.
For example, the University of Johannesburg recently on 18 June 2025 ranked number one in South Africa and the African continent. UJ affirmed its global leadership in sustainable development, retaining a remarkable position #1 in South Africa and on the African continent. Also see 2025 Times Higher Education (THE) Impact Rankings released on, 18 June 2025. UJ is a leader in green hydrogen renewable energy; education, electrical and chemical engineering, automobile industry; law; neurodiversity; chemical engineering; health sciences; chemical sciences, actuarial sciences, sport and a robust alumni-base globally, and among other critical research and development initiatives.
Taking into account who to engage with in trade is crucial within a new economic world order and to be the game-changer for the AfCFTA to address pressing continental-wide sustainable development gaps and challenges. Trade agreements must inculcate a multiplier effect in building small and medium-sized businesses through building cooperatives that can access stock exchange markets. South Africa's President Honourable Cyril Ramaphosa will indeed be handing over well-established reins to the next G20 Trump Administration presidency chairmanship – and indeed it will not be an unceremonious occasion – in matching the dots for our country with the African continental member states by using the AfCFTA as the anchor.
(Please note: that these views are those of the author and not those of the University of Johannesburg).
** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.
