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Business Standard
8 hours ago
- Climate
- Business Standard
Global temperature likely to breach 1.5°C in next five years: WMO
A new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Wednesday warned that there is a 70 per cent chance of global temperatures exceeding the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels between 2025 and 2029. The warning comes at a time when 180 of the 195 UNFCCC countries have yet to submit their next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), or national climate plans, for 2031–35 before the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30). Climate plans are crucial to limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C. The warning follows the European Union's Earth Observation Programme, Copernicus Climate Change Service's March forecast on the global average temperature breaching the 1.5°C long-term global warming threshold by September 2029 if the current trend continues. The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over 1850–1900, the report titled WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029) said, emphasising the need for continued climate monitoring to inform decision-making and adapt to the growing effects of climate change. It also said that there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record. Although exceptionally unlikely, there is now also a 1 per cent chance of at least one year exceeding 2°C of warming within the next five years. However, long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5°C. Citing the 10 warmest years on record, WMO deputy secretary general Ko Barrett said the new report provides no sign of respite in the coming years. '...this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,' she said. 'Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,' Barrett added in a statement. The 1.5°C threshold is a target that countries agreed to at the Paris climate conference in 2015 to avoid the worst effects of climate change. A permanent breach of the 1.5°C limit under the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming over 20 years. The WMO warned that temporary exceedances of such levels are expected to occur with increasing frequency as the underlying rise in global temperatures approaches the threshold. 'Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels,' the WMO report said. Arctic warming in the next five extended winters (November to March) is likely to be over 3.5 times the global average, at 2.4°C above the average temperature during the 1991–2020 baseline. Further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk are expected for March 2025–2029. Predicted precipitation patterns for May–September 2025–2029, relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, suggest wetter-than-average conditions in the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier-than-average conditions in the Amazon. In the case of South Asia, the WMO forecast indicated that the region—which was wetter than average in recent years, except 2023—will continue to experience such conditions till 2029, though this may not apply to every individual monsoon season in the period.
Hindustan Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Hindustan Times
Impact of US exit from Article 6.4 on global carbon markets
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), represents a historic effort to combat the climate crisis through collective global action. Its central objective lies in limiting global temperature rise to below 2°C" above pre-industrial levels, with an aspirational target of 1.5°C. The agreement, ratified by 196 parties, relies on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which outline each country's climate action plans and commitments. To facilitate cost-effective emissions reductions, the Paris Agreement incorporates market-based mechanisms under Article 6. These mechanisms are designed to promote international cooperation and investment in sustainable projects by allowing countries to trade carbon credits. Article 6.2 enables bilateral trading through Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs), while Article 6.4 establishes a UN-regulated global carbon market, fostering private and public sector participation in emissions reduction initiatives. These frameworks are crucial for ensuring transparency, preventing double-counting, and driving investments in low-carbon technologies. However, the effectiveness of these mechanisms has been repeatedly tested by political shifts, particularly in the US. The country's decisions to enter, exit, rejoin, and now re-exit the Paris Agreement have created significant uncertainty for global carbon markets. As the world's largest economy and a major emitter, US engagement plays a pivotal role in shaping the future of international climate policy. The latest withdrawal under the newly elected Trump administration raises fresh concerns about the stability of global carbon trading systems and the broader fight against the climate crisis. Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, which imposed binding targets on developed nations, the Paris Agreement requires voluntary commitments from all countries. Each signatory submits an NDC detailing its emissions reduction strategy, with a commitment to increasing ambition over time. Provisions for five-yearly reviews ensure continued global cooperation. A crucial element of the Paris Agreement is the use of market-based mechanisms to achieve emissions reductions more efficiently. Article 6 provides a framework for international collaboration, allowing nations to trade carbon credits, thereby reducing emissions at a lower cost. This includes two key components: Article 6.2, which enables countries to transfer emission reductions through ITMOs, and Article 6.4, which establishes a global carbon market under UN oversight. This market incentivises emission reduction projects, such as renewable energy and reforestation, by allowing credits to be bought and sold internationally. The US's engagement with the Paris Agreement has been inconsistent, influenced by shifting political priorities. President Obama led the country into the agreement, marking a significant commitment to global climate action. However, President Trump withdrew in 2017, arguing that the agreement placed unfair economic burdens on American industries, particularly fossil fuel sectors. This withdrawal created uncertainty about the US's role in international climate policy and weakened global momentum. Upon taking office, President Biden re-entered the Paris Agreement in 2021, reaffirming US commitment to emissions reduction. He set an ambitious target of reducing emissions by 50-52% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. However, most recently, the newly-elected Trump administration has once again withdrawn the US from the Paris Agreement, dealing another blow to global climate cooperation. This inconsistency in US policy has raised concerns about the reliability of its commitments and the stability of global climate action efforts. The withdrawal and re-entry cycles have made it difficult for other nations and businesses to plan long-term investments in emissions reduction projects. The US's exit from Article 6.4 specifically has had notable consequences for carbon markets. As one of the largest economies, the US plays a crucial role in shaping global demand for carbon credits. Uncertainty over its participation has undermined confidence in carbon trading schemes and deterred investment in emissions reduction projects. Trump's withdrawal slowed the development of global carbon trading markets, while Biden's re-entry provided a temporary boost, yet this latest exit further disrupts carbon markets, creating new uncertainties for international efforts to curb emissions and meet global climate targets. The instability of US climate policy has broader repercussions for global carbon markets. Article 6.4, designed to create a robust and transparent international carbon market, relies on major economies' participation to function effectively. The absence of the US disrupts market dynamics, reducing liquidity and weakening investor confidence. The fluctuation in US engagement also affects carbon credit pricing, making it harder for developing nations to attract funding for emission reduction projects. Beyond market implications, the US's wavering stance impacts international climate diplomacy. The Paris Agreement was built on a foundation of collective ambition, and the unpredictability of US participation challenges that cohesion. Other major emitters, such as China and even India, may hesitate to make more ambitious commitments if they perceive the US as an unreliable partner. Developing nations, which depend on financial and technological support from developed economies, face uncertainty in securing resources for their climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. Looking forward, a stable and sustained US commitment to the Paris Agreement and Article 6.4 is essential for fostering trust and driving investment in global carbon markets. Policy certainty from major economies encourages businesses and governments to participate in emissions trading, ultimately enhancing the effectiveness of carbon markets as a climate solution. If the US continues its pattern of policy reversals, it risks undermining international efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The US's shifting stance on the Paris Agreement, particularly regarding Article 6.4, highlights the challenges of achieving cohesive global climate action. As a major economy, its participation significantly influences carbon markets, investment flows, and international climate cooperation. While Biden's administration attempted to restore US leadership in climate policy, the return of the Trump administration and the subsequent withdrawal from the Paris Agreement once again cast doubt on global efforts. For the Paris Agreement to remain effective, long-term commitment from all major economies, especially the US, is crucial. The success of carbon markets hinges on policy stability, investor confidence, and international collaboration. Without a consistent and engaged approach, the world risks losing critical time in the fight against climate change. As nations continue to strengthen their climate commitments, the US's role will be pivotal in ensuring carbon markets function as a reliable mechanism for reducing global emissions. Unfortunately, the current US dispensation considers it a waste of time and a waste of money — as if there is another Planet B. However, this also presents an opportunity for India and like-minded countries to keep the fight against the climate crisis alive. This article is authored by Anil Trigunayat, former ambassador and currently distinguished fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation and Kaviraj Singh, CEO & director, Earthood.
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Work on ideal power mix, add nuclear capacity: Manohar Lal to States
Power minister Manohar Lal on Friday said resource adequacy and necessary power generation capacity tie-ups should be ensured by states. States should, while meeting their resource adequacy plan , also work on having an adequate power generation mix, including addition of nuclear generation capacity, Lal said while addressing the regional power conference with southern states. Lal said states should work towards resolving the intra-state transmission sector challenges, including 'right of way' issues. He emphasized the need to adopt guidelines issued by the central government in this regard. States should leverage the scheme announced in Union Budget 2025-26 including the scheme of ₹1.5 lakh crore interest-free loan to states for 50-year for infrastructure development. Lal urged states to submit proposals for third phase of the Green Energy Corridor and asked to promote renewable energy coupled with storage solutions so as to have energy reliability and to collectively meet India's international climate commitments under the UNFCCC. Power secretary Pankaj Agarwal, who also addressed the conference, highlighted that it is crucial to ensure necessary power generation capacity tie-ups as per the resource adequacy plan for up to FY35 to meet future power demand. He added that It is imperative to make necessary arrangements for development of inter-state and intra-state transmission capacities through various financing models available including tariff-based competitive bidding , regulated tariff mechanism, budgetary support or monetization of existing assets. States should make all efforts for securing the power sector infrastructure, including the transmission grid and distribution systems, against cyber security concerns and should implement necessary cyber security protocols for the same, he added. In addition, states should work towards ensuring financial viability of distribution utilities, he said.
Mint
5 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Centre asks states to tie up for power procurement, develop transmission infra to meet rising demand
New Delhi: Union minister for power Manohar Lal on Friday stressed the need for resource adequacy and tie-ups for power procurement to meet increasing demand. Addressing the regional conference for the South, he said that states, while meeting their resource adequacy plan should also work on having an adequate power generation mix including addition of nuclear generation capacity, said the ministry. The statement gains significance as power purchase agreements for over 40GW of renewable power projects are unsigned. He also asked urged to accelerate the development of inter-state transmission networks, including Right of Way (RoW) issues. Right of way refers to the legal right for passage over of use of the land owned by some other individual or entity. He asked states for adoption of guidelines issued by the Union government in this regard. The minister noted that that states should promote renewable energy coupled with storage solutions so as to have energy reliability and to collectively meet India's international climate commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Addressing the conference, Pankaj Agarwal, secretary, Union ministry of power, reiterated the need to meet future power demand by ensuring necessary power generation capacity tie-ups as per the resource adequacy plan for up to FY2035. He said that it is also imperative to make necessary arrangements for development of inter-state and intra-state transmission capacities through various financing models available including Tariff Based Competitive Bidding (TBCB), Regulated Tariff Mechanism (RTM), budgetary support or monetization of existing assets. The secretary also said that states should make all efforts for securing the power sector infrastructure, including the transmission grid and distribution systems, against cyber security concerns and should implement necessary cyber security protocols for the same, he added. Growth in the transmission network is also important to integrate the growing renewable energy capacity in the country, more so when the government aims to achieve 500GW of non-fossil capacity in the country by 2030. An investment of ₹ 10 trillion would be required in the power transmission space by 2030 as the government aims to add battery storage capacity along with expanding transmission network. According to the National Electricity Plan for transmission released by the CEA in October last year, a cumulative investment of ₹ 9.15 trillion would be required in the transmission sector to achieve 500GW clean energy capacity and add the required storage capacity to ensure steady power supply. Data from CEA, showed that about 8,830 circuit kilometres (ckm) of transmission lines were added in FY25 across the country, 37.8% lower than 14,203 ckm in the previous fiscal.
Hindustan Times
5 days ago
- Politics
- Hindustan Times
COP30: ‘Focus on healing, building credibility of climate talks,' says Brazil
Brazil, the host of the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30), has asked all countries who are party to the Paris Agreement to consider the future of climate negotiations when they assemble for the key event later this year. It has made it clear that there are three interconnected priorities during the June climate meetings in Bonn (SB62) and COP30 in November, which include reinforcing multilateralism, connecting the climate talks to people and focusing on implementation of the Paris Agreement. In a letter on Friday, Brazil urged the parties to reorient the climate talks ahead of the Bonn climate meetings, scheduled to take place from June 16-26. The Bonn talks are seen as a halfway point to the annual climate summit to be held in Brazil this year. 'Against a background in which climate urgency interacts with compounding geopolitical and socioeconomic challenges, the incoming COP30 Presidency hopes all delegations are guided by three interconnected priorities for SB62 and COP30: (1) to reinforce multilateralism and the climate change regime under the UNFCCC, (2) to connect the climate regime to people's real lives, and (3) to accelerate the implementation of the Paris Agreement by stimulating action and structural adjustments across all institutions that can contribute to it,' the letter signed off by COP30 president designate André Aranha Correa do Lago said. 'This is the time we focus negotiations on healing and upgrading our process, rebuilding a global infrastructure of trust for accelerated and scaled outcomes. The credibility of our multilateral process is in the hands of negotiators in Bonn,' he wrote. The incoming COP30 Presidency is working to ensure that negotiations, the global mobilisation, the Action Agenda and the Leaders' Summit where world leaders announce their plans and views, each contribute to 'inaugurating a new era of putting into practice what we have agreed', Lago wrote in his third letter to parties. During a briefing on Thursday, HT asked COP30 President, ambassador Lago, asked what Brazil expected from COP30, especially against the backdrop of major geopolitical disruptions globally. 'Well, we don't have that answer yet, because we are listening to countries and this is the process in which we have to make sure that the international community is supportive of the results of COP30. And that is the success, the essential success of COP30, is the strengthening of multilateralism and everybody getting together convinced that it must be the solutions to fight climate change have to come from this dialogue and from this work together. So, we are still building that,' Lago told HT. He also said he doesn't want to create specific expectations immediately. 'We don't want to create, you know, like expectations and we want to do that and this. We really want to listen to the countries and understand their priorities. But I believe that we have received positive inputs regarding the priorities we have been showing in the letters and also in the effort of having a COP that convinces everybody that we have enough things negotiated for us to act more.' Erosion of trust among developed and developing nations has cast a shadow on the climate negotiations in recent years. Several developing countries are disappointed with the outcome of COP29, also because the agreement on New Collective Quantified Goal was seen to be in favour of developed countries. India led a fierce pushback at COP29 against what it called a 'stage-managed' climate finance deal, moments after the Azerbaijan presidency hastily gavelled through a contentious proposal. The hastily adopted text set a climate finance goal of 'at least $300 billion per year by 2035' and launched the 'Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T'. However, India and other developing countries identified specific problems that could fundamentally alter climate finance obligations. These include the sum being too small and to be delivered only 11 years later. There was more uncertainty after US, the largest historical emitter of greenhouse gas emissions, under President Donald Trump this January, announced its withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement. Developing countries saw this as the largest historical emitter evading its responsibility. 'Acknowledging ongoing calls for COPs' reform, the incoming Presidency invites all Parties to consider the future of the process itself. As we move from a negotiation-centred to an implementation-centred era, Parties can intensify at SB62 the consideration of approaches and initiatives to increase the efficiency of the process towards enhancing ambition and implementation,' Lago said in his letter. He further wrote that the Bonn climate meeting could address longstanding challenges, including the excessive number of provisional agenda items for COPs and SBs, overlapping themes, scheduling constraints, and barriers that prevent the effective participation of smaller delegations. 'While these issues remain under consideration, it is advisable to avoid introducing potentially contentious new agenda items that could further burden the process or detract from agreed priorities. Looking ahead, future COPs can represent a new generation of climate conferences: not as isolated diplomatic events, but as systemic platforms to accelerate delivery, measure progress, and engage a broader ecosystem of actors,' the Brazil Presidency has emphasised. The first Global Stocktake (GST) which took place in Dubai at COP28, stands as a guide to Mission 1.5 and to our collective project around the vision of the UN Climate Convention, Lago said. All public and private stakeholders should work together towards the full implementation of the Paris Agreement by considering the findings of the GST. This includes the global calls for efforts towards halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by 2030, and for accelerating the global energy transition, Lago wrote, adding that parties should support one another to advance collectively on tripling renewable energy capacity globally, doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements, and transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly, and equitable manner.
