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Global temperature likely to breach 1.5°C in next five years: WMO
The warning comes at a time when 180 of the 195 UNFCCC countries have yet to submit their next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), or national climate plans, for 2031–35 before the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30). Climate plans are crucial to limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C.
The warning follows the European Union's Earth Observation Programme, Copernicus Climate Change Service's March forecast on the global average temperature breaching the 1.5°C long-term global warming threshold by September 2029 if the current trend continues.
The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over 1850–1900, the report titled WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029) said, emphasising the need for continued climate monitoring to inform decision-making and adapt to the growing effects of climate change.
It also said that there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record. Although exceptionally unlikely, there is now also a 1 per cent chance of at least one year exceeding 2°C of warming within the next five years. However, long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5°C.
Citing the 10 warmest years on record, WMO deputy secretary general Ko Barrett said the new report provides no sign of respite in the coming years. '...this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,' she said.
'Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,' Barrett added in a statement.
The 1.5°C threshold is a target that countries agreed to at the Paris climate conference in 2015 to avoid the worst effects of climate change. A permanent breach of the 1.5°C limit under the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming over 20 years.
The WMO warned that temporary exceedances of such levels are expected to occur with increasing frequency as the underlying rise in global temperatures approaches the threshold.
'Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels,' the WMO report said.
Arctic warming in the next five extended winters (November to March) is likely to be over 3.5 times the global average, at 2.4°C above the average temperature during the 1991–2020 baseline. Further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk are expected for March 2025–2029.
Predicted precipitation patterns for May–September 2025–2029, relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, suggest wetter-than-average conditions in the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier-than-average conditions in the Amazon.
In the case of South Asia, the WMO forecast indicated that the region—which was wetter than average in recent years, except 2023—will continue to experience such conditions till 2029, though this may not apply to every individual monsoon season in the period.
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Time of India
4 days ago
- Time of India
World's longest lightning megaflash recorded at 829 km, breaking previous 768 km world record
Source: WMO An extraordinary natural event has stunned scientists and meteorologists worldwide—a record-breaking lightning megaflash stretching 829 kilometres across the skies of the United States. This phenomenon, confirmed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), occurred on October 22, 2017, during a powerful thunderstorm between Texas and Kansas City. For perspective, this lightning strike covered a distance greater than Delhi to Bhopal, making it one of the most astonishing examples of nature's power. The discovery came to light after advanced satellite data analysis revealed that extreme lightning events can occur beyond traditional expectations, highlighting the importance of monitoring and studying them. World's longest lightning Megaflash at 829 km recorded; WMO confirms The WMO officially recognised this lightning strike as the longest ever recorded, breaking the previous 768-kilometre record from April 2020 between Mississippi and Texas. The measurement carries a small ±8 km error margin, but it still marks a groundbreaking achievement in atmospheric science. This record shows how lightning can travel far beyond storm cores, highlighting its ability to extend across massive weather systems. This record-setting megaflash happened during a supercell thunderstorm, one of the most intense storm types capable of producing extreme lightning. Unlike typical cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, megaflashes travel horizontally through clouds, sometimes lasting several seconds and covering hundreds of kilometres. Such events are often called 'Bolts from the Blue' because they can strike far from where the storm visually appears, posing unexpected danger to people and infrastructure. Why are megaflashes dangerous According to the WMO, megaflashes can be deadly and highly unpredictable especially in regions where people are unprepared for long-range lightning strikes. They can cause damage to power grids, spark wildfires, or even injure or kill people caught outdoors. To reduce risks, meteorologists are working to integrate lightning detection into the Advanced Weather Warning System by 2027, aiming to deliver faster alerts to remote and vulnerable areas. Other lightning world records The megaflash is just one among several extreme lightning records: Longest lightning duration: 17.1 seconds over Uruguay and Argentina (June 2020) Most indirect lightning deaths: 469 fatalities in Dronka, Egypt (1994), caused by lightning striking oil storage tanks Most deaths from a single strike: 21 fatalities in Zimbabwe (1975), when lightning hit a single hut Role of satellite technology in lightning research The ability to detect megaflashes is relatively recent, thanks to satellite-based lightning mapping technology introduced in 2016. Before this, lightning records relied on ground-based sensors with limited coverage. With satellites, scientists now capture extreme weather events more accurately, leading to new insights into lightning behaviour. Michael Peterson from the US Severe Storms Research Centre notes that as data collection improves, more extreme lightning phenomena are expected to be recorded, helping to advance our understanding of storm dynamics and improve public safety. Also Read | Top 10 most powerful earthquakes in the world: Kamchatka Quake joins history's deadliest list
News18
5 days ago
- News18
World's Longest Lightning Strike Shatters Record At 829km!
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Hindustan Times
23-07-2025
- Hindustan Times
We must stay prepared for extreme heat and flooding
In March 2025, the World Meteorological Organization confirmed what climate scientists had warned: 2024 was the first year to exceed 1.5 °C above pre‑industrial levels, reaching roughly 1.55–1.6 °C nationwide. That translated into more than 150 unprecedented weather disasters worldwide: heatwaves, floods, storms which displaced over 800,000 people in 2024 and inflicted grave damage on life, livelihoods, crops and infrastructure. The intensity of the incessant rainfall was higher in the eastern suburbs of Ghatkopar, Mankhurd, Govandi, LBS Road in Vikhroli and Bhandup, which are considered chronic flooding spots. (Praful Gangurde /HT Photo) Sea levels rose at 4.7 mm/year in 2024 twice the rate of the early 2000s while global ice losses, record ocean heat, and shrinking Arctic and Antarctic sea ice reached unprecedented lows (WMO). The resulting extremes of heat, drought, storms, flooding affected societies from Asia to the Americas. According to Climate Central and other agencies, about half of humanity some 4 billion people experienced at least one extra month of extreme heat between May 2024 and May 2025 compared to historical norms. In nearly every country, extreme heat days have at least doubled due to global warming. Meanwhile globally, heatwaves remain the deadliest weather event. Asia recorded 1,301 deaths during a June 2024 heatwave near Mecca. Japan's 2024 heatwaves caused 123 deaths and over 37,000 heatstroke hospitalisations. In North America, the 2024 heatwaves killed over 1,000 people in the US and 155 in Mexico, with Death Valley hitting 54°C. Europe endured record heat in 2024–25 causing approximately 2,300 deaths across 12 cities including Spain, Portugal, and the UK. Extreme rainfall and flooding were equally widespread. Floods in Pakistan, Senegal, Italy and Brazil destroyed homes and crops. These disasters also triggered the highest level of climate-related displacement since 2008, over 824,000 people in 2024. As part of the global maelstrom, India has become a climate flashpoint, with nearly 60% of districts representing 76% of the population fall into high or very high heat-risk categories. IIT Gandhinagar reports some 10,000 flash-flood events annually even in central and western India impacting over 90 million hectares. Between April and July 2025, an early heatwave peaked at 48 °C in Rajasthan, linked to at least 455 heat-related deaths. Extreme weather occurred on 88% of days in 2024, killing almost 3,000 people and destroying 80,000 homes (Centre for Science and Environment). These qualify as part of a larger global pattern: warming disproportionally impacting South Asia, Africa, Latin America and the island-State regions least responsible for emissions yet most vulnerable. While mitigation remains vital, adaptation building resilience now is a matter of survival. The UN's Adaptation Gap Report 2023 estimates that developing countries need $194–366 billion annually by 2030, yet receive less than 10% (WMO, UNEP). Every $1 spent on adaptation yields $13 in avoided damage (WMO). As climate extremes become more frequent and severe, countries must shift from reactive relief to proactive resilience. Across the globe, innovative strategies are emerging that offer replicable models of adaptation and preparedness. These best practices, drawn from diverse geographies, highlight both the urgency and opportunity to act now. * Cool cities: Urban heat islands amplify the deadly impact of rising temperatures. Cities like Ahmedabad in India have pioneered early interventions. Its Heat Action Plan focused on public education, early warnings, and hydration stations has significantly reduced heatstroke fatalities over the past decade. Elsewhere, Melbourne combats urban heat by planting over 3,000 shade trees annually, while Paris has designated more than 800 public cooling centres. These low-cost, high-impact urban strategies demonstrate how city design and green infrastructure can save lives and enhance liveability amid rising heat extremes. * Flood protection via nature-based solutions: Flood management need not rely solely on grey infrastructure. The Netherlands' Room for the River programme, which restores floodplains and allows rivers to flow more naturally, has proven effective in mitigating flood risks while enhancing ecosystems. In Southeast Asia, countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines are restoring mangroves to shield vulnerable coastlines. In India, the East Kolkata Wetlands naturally treat wastewater and absorb stormwater, while Chennai and Bengaluru have seen success with Miyawaki forests that not only reduce runoff but also cool microclimates. These examples reveal how nature-based solutions can build dual resilience: protecting lives while restoring biodiversity. * Smarter warning systems and community-based responses: According to the World Meteorological Organization, only about half of the world's countries have effective early warning systems in place. Bangladesh, however, has become a global leader in this space. Through improved cyclone forecasting, pre-emptive evacuations, community drills, and a network of shelters, it has drastically reduced cyclone-related deaths over the years. Countries like India, Nepal, and Brazil should scale up similar models that combine SMS-based alerts, local volunteer brigades, and decentralised command centres to ensure faster and more inclusive responses. * Health system readiness: Climate events often turn into public health crises. Heatwaves exacerbate risks of heatstroke, dehydration, and respiratory illness, while floods lead to outbreaks of waterborne and vector-borne diseases. Japan has institutionalised its heat alert system into school protocols, urban planning, and public health advisories, setting a global benchmark. In India, there is an urgent need to establish district cooling hubs, hydration centres, and train primary healthcare workers to respond to heat- and flood-related illnesses. Post-disaster mental health support also deserves more systematic integration into national health strategies. * Financing resilience: A major bottleneck in scaling preparedness is finance. However, innovative models are emerging. From 2028, Indian banks will mandate climate-risk disclosures and stress testing for businesses, a critical first step toward climate-informed financial systems. Kenya offers another powerful model through its County Climate Change Funds, which decentralise adaptation finance and align spending with local priorities. Globally, climate adaptation finance must scale through tools like green bonds, local climate funds, and weather-indexed insurance schemes that offer quicker recovery and risk-sharing mechanisms, especially for the most vulnerable. * Empowering local communities: At the frontlines of every climate disaster are local communities often under-resourced but deeply adaptive. Grassroots organisations, such as self-help groups in India, climate response brigades in Spain, and youth volunteer corps in Latin America, are proving to be first responders, educators, and long-term resilience builders. Providing these groups with climate training, microgrants, and institutional support can dramatically expand the reach and relevance of adaptation programmes. Climate resilience must be seen not as a top-down mandate, but as a collaborative effort rooted in local knowledge and leadership. Collectively, these strategies underscore a central truth: resilience is local, contextual, and most effective when co-created. While global climate conventions continue to guide broad policy frameworks, it is these grounded, tested, and community-centric models that offer the most hope in a rapidly warming world. The world passed the 1.5 °C threshold in 2024. Without urgent emissions reductions, we are on track for 2 °C warming by 2030, which would multiply climate extremes. That means hotter summers, erratic monsoons, rising seas, degraded food systems, and population migrations on a scale few nations are prepared to handle. From the Philippines to Pakistan, from Sardinia to Sahel, people have been displaced, injured, or killed by disasters already made more likely by human-caused warming. We have solutions and examples. What is lacking is the political will, financing, and collective urgency. Whether in Delhi, Dhaka, Dakar, or Denver, adaptation is now the frontline of the climate crisis. Adaptation is not a fallback, it is the defence. How hardened are our cities, health systems, communities and economies? That will determine how many lives are saved, and how much suffering is averted. The question is no longer will we be hit? How hard and how ready are we? This article is authored by Ananya Raj Kakoti, scholar, international relations, Jawaharlal Nehru University.
