Latest news with #GlobalAnnualtoDecadalClimateUpdate
Hindustan Times
2 days ago
- Climate
- Hindustan Times
Heat records set to be broken over next 5 yrs: WMO
New Delhi: There is an 80% chance that a year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than 2024, a new World Meteorological Organisation report has warned -- a forecast that shouldn't exactly be news because the past 11 years are the 11 warmest on record since records begin in 1880. Last year was the warmest on record, and before it, 2023. The report 'WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029)' has also projected that there is a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will surpass 1.5 degrees C leading to frequent and severe heatwaves, droughts, and extreme weather events. This is up from the 47% probability flagged in last year's WMO report for 2024-2028 and 32% in the 2023 report for 2023-2027. The threshold is important because it is one of the goals of the Paris agreement. The WMO report emphasised the need for continued climate monitoring to inform decision-making and adapt to the growing impacts of climate change. It added that the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is likely to be between 1.2 degrees C and 1.9 degrees C higher than the 1850-1900 average. This means that annual global temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels during next five years and stay well above annual mean temperatures seen in the last 60 years. WMO has however clarified that temporary breaches of the 1.5 degrees C goal even if over a few years will not be considered a failure of the Paris Agreement. 'The 1.5 degrees C (and 2 degrees C) level specified in the Paris Agreement refers to the long-term level of warming inferred from global temperatures, typically over 20 years,' the report said referring to the fact that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines future global warming levels in terms of a 20-year mean. But, the central estimate of the 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 is dangerously close to breaching 1.5 degrees C threshold at 1.44°C, (with a 90% confidence range of 1.22–1.54 degrees C), as per the report. A WMO team of international experts is considering all of these estimates in order to ensure consistent, reliable and timely tracking of long-term global temperature changes, the report has said. How and when the world would declare that the Paris Agreement's lower limit has been breached was a grey area so far. 'Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels,' the WMO report said. Arctic warming over the next five extended winters (November to March) is likely to be over three and a half times the global average, at 2.4 degrees C above the average temperature during the most recent 30-year baseline period (1991-2020). Further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk are expected for March 2025-2029. Predicted rainfall patterns for May-September 2025-2029, relative to the 1991-2020 baseline, suggest wetter-than-average conditions in the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier-than-average conditions in the Amazon. In recent years, apart from 2023, South Asia has been wetter-than-average. The forecast suggests this pattern will continue for the 2025-2029 period. WMO deputy secretary general Ko Barrett cited the 10 warmest years on record and added the new report provides no sign of respite over the coming years. '...this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,' Barrett said in a statement. 'Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt.' On March 14, the European Union's Earth Observation Programme Copernicus Climate Change Service said the world could cross the 1.5 degrees C long-term global warming threshold by September 2029 if the current warming trend continues, a timeline significantly sooner than the 'early 2030s' projection scientists widely agreed upon. The WMO report notes that each of the last ten years (2015-2024) were individually the warmest ten years on record primarily due to the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide being at the highest level in 800,000 years.
NDTV
2 days ago
- Climate
- NDTV
Global Temperatures To Soar In Next 5 Years: Report
Geneva: The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has issued a warning in its latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2025-2029, predicting that global temperatures will continue to soar over the next five years. The report highlights an 80% likelihood that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass the warmest year on record (currently 2024), with temperatures expected to be 1.2°C to 1.9°C higher than the pre-industrial average. The forecast also suggests a 70% chance that the five-year average warming will exceed 1.5°C. In a press release on Wednesday, the WMO said, "The World Meteorological Organization Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029) projects that global temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development." It added, "The report forecasts that the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900. There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024). And there is an 86% chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level." According to the report, there is a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5°C. This is up from 47% in last year's report (for the 2024-2028 period) and up from 32% in the 2023 report for the 2023-2027 period. Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice, and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels. The report further said that in recent years, apart from 2023, the South Asian region has been anomalously wet, and the forecast suggests this will continue for the 2025-2029 period. The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is issued annually by the WMO. It provides a synthesis of the global annual to decadal predictions produced by the WMO-designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing centres.
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Business Standard
3 days ago
- Climate
- Business Standard
Global temperature likely to breach 1.5°C in next five years: WMO
A new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Wednesday warned that there is a 70 per cent chance of global temperatures exceeding the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels between 2025 and 2029. The warning comes at a time when 180 of the 195 UNFCCC countries have yet to submit their next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), or national climate plans, for 2031–35 before the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30). Climate plans are crucial to limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C. The warning follows the European Union's Earth Observation Programme, Copernicus Climate Change Service's March forecast on the global average temperature breaching the 1.5°C long-term global warming threshold by September 2029 if the current trend continues. The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over 1850–1900, the report titled WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029) said, emphasising the need for continued climate monitoring to inform decision-making and adapt to the growing effects of climate change. It also said that there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record. Although exceptionally unlikely, there is now also a 1 per cent chance of at least one year exceeding 2°C of warming within the next five years. However, long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5°C. Citing the 10 warmest years on record, WMO deputy secretary general Ko Barrett said the new report provides no sign of respite in the coming years. '...this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,' she said. 'Continued climate monitoring and prediction is essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt,' Barrett added in a statement. The 1.5°C threshold is a target that countries agreed to at the Paris climate conference in 2015 to avoid the worst effects of climate change. A permanent breach of the 1.5°C limit under the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming over 20 years. The WMO warned that temporary exceedances of such levels are expected to occur with increasing frequency as the underlying rise in global temperatures approaches the threshold. 'Every additional fraction of a degree of warming drives more harmful heatwaves, extreme rainfall events, intense droughts, melting of ice sheets, sea ice and glaciers, heating of the ocean, and rising sea levels,' the WMO report said. Arctic warming in the next five extended winters (November to March) is likely to be over 3.5 times the global average, at 2.4°C above the average temperature during the 1991–2020 baseline. Further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk are expected for March 2025–2029. Predicted precipitation patterns for May–September 2025–2029, relative to the 1991–2020 baseline, suggest wetter-than-average conditions in the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, and drier-than-average conditions in the Amazon. In the case of South Asia, the WMO forecast indicated that the region—which was wetter than average in recent years, except 2023—will continue to experience such conditions till 2029, though this may not apply to every individual monsoon season in the period.
Daily Maverick
3 days ago
- Climate
- Daily Maverick
Getting hot, hotter… Five takeaways from the WMO's new five-year climate forecast
The latest climate forecast from the World Meteorological Organization, released today, warns that global temperatures are set to remain at or near record highs for at least the next five years. The world is on track to remain hot, or get hotter, over the next five years, according to a report released today, 28 May, by the World Meteorological Organization. The WMO's report – Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2025-2029 – draws on forecasts from 15 international climate institutions, including the UK's Met Office, as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. It provides some of the clearest near-term predictions of our warming world, and warns that global temperatures are set to remain at or near record highs for at least the next five years. 'We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,' said WMO deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett. 'Continued climate monitoring and prediction are essential to provide decision-makers with science-based tools and information to help us adapt.' Here are five key takeaways you need to know: We're on track to exceed 1.5°C of global warming – even if temporarily There is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be more than 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels (the average from 1850 to 1900). The report also predicts a 70% chance that the five-year average itself will pass the 1.5°C mark. Why does this matter? The Paris Agreement's 'Long Term Global Goal' is to keep global warming well below 2°C, and ideally below 1.5°C, to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. These targets refer to long-term averages, typically calculated over 20 to 30 years, to account for short-term variability, and highlight the human-driven warming trend. Climate scientists commonly use a multi-decade average period to define climate normals and long-term trends, because if the averages change significantly, it's considered climate change, which is driven by human activities, not natural variability. Scientists warn that every fraction of a degree beyond this threshold brings more intense heatwaves, droughts, floods and the risk of crossing irreversible tipping points in Earth's climate system. If the long-term average exceeds 1.5°C, it would mark an official breach of the Paris Agreement. However, the WMO notes that these projected exceedances are likely to be temporary, not yet the long-term average that would officially breach the Paris Agreement. Each of the next five years is likely to be near or above current temperature records The report forecasts that global average temperatures for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C hotter than the pre-industrial average. There is an 80% chance that at least one of these years will be the warmest on record, overtaking 2024 – the hottest year in the 175-year observational record. Although it remains very unlikely, there is now even a 1% chance that a year in the next five could see a global temperature rise of more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This would be a truly alarming milestone, with potentially severe consequences for both natural and human systems. As Professor Coleen Vogel, a climatologist with Wits University's Global Change Unit, has explained: 'This is likely the warmest Earth has been in 125,000 years. It is possible that during the Last Interglacial, about 125,000 years ago, Earth has been warmer.' But, she explained that such past periods of higher temperatures were caused by slow changes in the orbital characteristics of Earth, occurring over tens of thousands of years. 'The warming that has occurred since the pre-industrial era is rapid, and cannot be explained by any natural process, including slow orbital changes or changes in solar activity (no systematic trends in incoming solar radiation that can explain the warming since the pre-industrial era).' She added: 'It is not only average temperatures that are increasing, but also extreme temperature events. Increases in the intensity and frequency of heatwaves can be detected across the planet, also in southern Africa, and these changes are also directly attributable to global warming and the underlying human-induced causes of global warming.' The Arctic is heating more than 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world The Arctic continues to be the climate canary in the coal mine. The WMO predicts that average winter temperatures in the Arctic will be 2.4°C higher than the recent 30-year baseline (1991 to 2020) – more than three and a half times the global mean anomaly. This rapid Arctic warming is not just a problem for polar bears. It disrupts global weather patterns, accelerates sea level rise and threatens to release more greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost, creating feedback loops that could worsen global warming. Rainfall patterns are shifting The WMO's forecast highlights major shifts in rainfall patterns over the next five years. From May to September, wetter-than-average conditions are expected in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, while the Amazon is likely to be drier than usual. For South Africa and the wider southern African region, the report does not specifically predict new extremes – neither unusually wet nor dry conditions are highlighted for the forecast period. However, it is worth noting that the past five years have seen drier-than-average conditions in southern Africa, contributing to water stress and drought risk. While the models do not forecast a dramatic change for our region in the immediate future, ongoing vigilance is needed, especially as climate variability and extreme events become more common globally. The report also notes that El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) conditions are predicted to be mixed or mainly neutral, which means less certainty about major swings in rainfall for southern Africa. Sea ice is vanishing fast The WMO forecasts further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk in both March and September. The loss of sea ice has far-reaching consequences, including rising sea levels, disrupted fisheries and altered weather patterns that can affect regions far from the poles – including southern Africa. DM
Time of India
3 days ago
- Climate
- Time of India
World's biggest weather agency predicts heavier rainfall for Indian subcontinent, hotter years ahead worldwide
South Asia is expected to continue experiencing unusually wet weather between 2025 and 2029, a trend that has persisted in recent years except for 2023. The projection comes from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which also warns that global temperatures are likely to reach new highs during the same period, with at least one year expected to surpass 2024—the current warmest year on record. Rising global temperatures over next five years In its latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, the WMO said that global temperatures between 2025 and 2029 are likely to remain at or near record levels. The forecast shows an 80% chance that at least one year during this period will be warmer than 2024. Each year is expected to be 1.2°C to 1.9°C hotter than the 1850–1900 average. There is also an 86% chance that at least one year in the five-year period will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The likelihood that the five-year average temperature from 2025 to 2029 will cross this 1.5°C threshold is now 70%, up from 47% in last year's report. WMO outlines broader impact In a press release, the WMO said, "The World Meteorological Organization Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029) projects that global temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development." The organisation further stated, "The report forecasts that the annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900. There is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024). And there is an 86% chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level." Live Events You Might Also Like: Earth's average temperature for 2025-29 likely to exceed 1.5 deg C limit: WMO More frequent extreme weather events The report warns that any further increase in temperature, even by a small margin, could worsen extreme weather. It could lead to more heatwaves, heavier rainfall , prolonged droughts, melting ice sheets, rising sea levels, and warmer oceans. Continued wet conditions in South Asia According to the update, the South Asian region has experienced anomalously wet conditions in recent years, apart from 2023. The WMO expects this pattern to continue throughout the 2025–2029 period. The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update is published every year by the WMO. It combines forecasts from WMO-designated Global Producing Centres and other contributing agencies.
