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Time of India
a day ago
- Business
- Time of India
Why RBI will hit a hattrick of 25 bps rate cut tomorrow
The global setting is characterized by heightened geopolitical tensions, viz., Russia-Ukraine war, the Middle Eastern situation, etc., and a precarious fisc with ' tremendous ' pressures for more spending on defense, climate, and aging populations. These aspects are starkly reflected in global public debt mounting to 100 % of global GDP by the end of the decade (IMF's Fiscal Monitor ) and higher long-term borrowing costs. An uncertain global trading system marked by trade protectionism and tariff turmoil causes extensive concern. Geopolitical events heightened economic instability, amplified sector-specific risks, and intensified regulatory uncertainties. These geopolitical events accentuated global tensions, disrupted trade, and made the global markets volatile, affecting investor confidence and capital flows into emerging markets like India. This assumes greater significance for energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing, which are sensitive to international trade dynamics and supply chain disruptions. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Collagen is not needed, 42-year-old woman's skin changes URUHIME MOMOKO Learn More Undo The Court of International Trade struck down President Donald Trump's sweeping ' Liberation Day ' tariffs, ruling that he lacked the 'unbounded authority' to impose across-the-board import taxes on the entire world under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. These concerns have been exacerbated by President Donald Trump's 1000-page ' Big, Beautiful Bill .' While the Bill is ' big ,' there have been concerns about its ' beautiful ' nature due to a hike in the USA's already bloated and unsustainable deficit resulting from extended tax cuts and an aggravated skew in the distribution of income and wealth. The US grew by 2.8 % in 2024. But, in January-March 2025, growth turned -0.2 % due to policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks. The Fed is wary of cutting rates, despite declining growth prospects. Further, the labour market was expected to weaken, with the unemployment rate likely to exceed its natural rate by the end of this year. Overall, risks are tilted to the downside. Despite ongoing policy uncertainty, the Eurozone's Economic Sentiment Indicator rose 1pt to 94.8 in May because of an upgraded outlook for household finances and industrial performance. Live Events In the UK, a sustainable world trading system is basic to the economy. While trade facilitates specialization and productivity, post-COVID supply-chain frailty has damaged the rules-based system. The ominous impact of trade wars and escalating tariffs on growth and inflation across countries has been effectively demonstrated. Shared prosperity necessitates a more connected, secure, and efficient trading environment - an environment marked by strong standards and international cooperation. Major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve , the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England, are expected to adopt a dovish stance, keeping interest rates low to bolster languishing economic growth. The Indian Macroeconomy India's economy rose 7.4% in Q4 of FY 2025, exceeding expectations, despite heightened global uncertainties. This is the strongest quarterly growth in FY 25, accelerating from 5.6 % growth in Q2 and 6.4% in Q3. India's GDP growth rose 6.5% in FY 25, the lowest in four years (9.2 % in FY 24 and 7.6 % in FY23). The growth outlook in Asia's third-largest economy remains relatively robust, making it the world's fastest-growing major economy again, thanks to strong domestic consumption, government investments, and a relatively lower dependence on exports. Sectorally, manufacturing, construction, financial real estate, professional services, and public administration, defence, etc., performed well. However, private consumption growth slowed, and government final consumption expenditure shrank in Q4 of FY25 after two quarters. ' Improving domestic consumption is likely to support industrial activity... domestic consumption demand to improve, driven by healthy agricultural growth, easing inflation, supporting discretionary spend and income tax relief this fiscal '. But this growth will require continued recovery in domestic demand and support from both monetary and fiscal stimulus. The real GDP growth reflects the economy's underlying strength and resilience, driven by robust domestic demand, sustained government capex, and gradual recovery in private investment. Industrial production rose modestly to an eight-month low of 2.7% in April 2025 (5.2% in April 2024), and a 4% rise in industrial output in FY 25, which was the lowest in four years. While manufacturing (3.4%) and electricity (1.1%) grew, mining shrank (0.2%) in April, the first since August 2024. Persisting contraction in consumer non-durables' output for the third successive month manifested in low rural consumption despite CPI inflation reaching an almost 6-year low at 3.16% in April. India's foodgrain production rose 6.6 % to reach 354 million tonne (MT) in FY 25, including record production of all major crops, rice, paddy, maize, wheat, etc. India's economic trajectory remains resilient despite global headwinds and regional geopolitical tensions, including persistent border concerns with Pakistan, because of a ' pickup in private consumption, healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, easing financial conditions, and the government's continued thrust on capital expenditure '. India will continue to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world and consolidate its economic size and heft in the comity of nations. While external uncertainties, such as supply chain disruptions and energy market volatility, pose challenges, India continues to benefit from demographic dividend, ascendant middle class, huge markets with rising consumption demand, strong service sector performance, an accent on infrastructure and capex, a stable banking system, and improving manufacturing output under schemes like PLI. External sector risks, tariff disputes, ease of doing business, credit delivery to the target group, tax reforms, and expenditure rationalization, however, cause some concern. Bank Credit Credit growth is expected to remain robust, driven by economic growth, consumption, and investment. Bank credit moderated to 11.2 % as on April 18, 2025, compared to 15.3 % in the previous year. Bond Yields Domestic bond yields fell to multi-year lows because of successive rate cuts and liquidity-boosting measures by the RBI . Both credit and monetary conditions are in sync with the RBI's plan to support the economy while containing inflation. Liquidity Liquidity remains volatile because of advance tax and GST outflows and government cash balances with the RBI. Liquidity remained in surplus as reflected in average daily net absorption under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF), increasing to ₹1,605 crore during FY 25 from ₹485 crore in FY 24. The RBI conducted market operations, including open market operations (OMO) purchases, USD/INR buy/sell swaps, and longer tenor variable rate repo (VRR) operations, besides reducing the CRR by 50 bps (in two tranches of 25 bps each), to provide durable liquidity to the system. The RBI transferred ₹2.69 lakh crore surplus to the government. Inflation Inflation remained within the target in FY 25, aided by easing vegetable prices. Headline inflation moderated to 4.6 % during FY 25 from 5.4 % in the previous year, largely driven by moderating core (CPI excluding food and fuel) inflation to 3.5 % and deflation in fuel at 2.5 %. However, the rise in core inflation in the second half of the year occurred because of surging global gold prices. Other tailwinds are above normal monsoon, early arrival of the southwest monsoon, elevated reservoir level, favourable rainfall outlook, and softening food inflation. Crude prices are expected to remain volatile because of global demand, supply disruptions, and geopolitical tensions. CPI inflation softened to 3.2 % in April, the lowest since July 2019, from 3.3 % in March because of a sustained fall in food prices. CPI inflation is expected to remain range-bound, driven by factors such as food prices, fuel prices, and economic growth. With benign inflation (inflation remaining below the 4 % from February to April 2025) and plunging inflation, the CPI is likely to durably align with the 4 % target over 2 months, inducing the RBI to cut policy rates by 25 bps to 5.75 % in June. A downward bias in FY26 CPI inflation will be symptomatic of the depth of the rate-cutting cycle. CPI is expected to moderate from 4.9% in FY25 to 4.3% in FY26. However, inflationary risks persist because of global commodity prices and any escalation in geopolitical tensions. Under the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework, the RBI has been mandated by the government to maintain CPI at 4 % with a band of +/-2 %. Decelerating inflation and moderate growth warrant ' monetary policy to be growth supportive, while remaining watchful about the rapidly evolving global macroeconomic conditions ' (RBI's Annual Report for 2024-25). Revised GDP and inflation forecasts The RBI is likely to revise its projections on real GDP and inflation for FY26. Rate Action The RBI has already cut the Repo Rate twice in 2025- in February and in April, by 25 bps each. These cuts reduced the key lending rate to 6%. Further, the RBI also changed its stance from 'neutral' to 'accommodative' in April. Accordingly, most banks reduced their repo-linked lending rates. Lenders also lowered their marginal cost of funds-based lending rate (MCLR), with a beneficial impact on interest-rate sensitive segments, viz., real estate, small businesses, and home loans. A further 25-bps cut in the Repo Rate will drive economic traction, promote borrowing, investment, and growth, and enhance job creation by making it cheaper for people to borrow money. A 25-bps reduction in the Repo Rate will cause a corresponding drop in all external benchmark lending rates (EBLR), with equated monthly installments (EMIs) on home and personal loans decreasing by 25 bps. A boost in real estate will have a multiplier effect on the economy, particularly in sectors like cement, steel, and construction equipment. This would be the third consecutive reduction in the Repo rate since February 2025. Since inflation is within the RBI's target band, and given the likely growth-inflation dynamics, we expect another reduction of 50 bps in FY26. Policy Stance The MPC is likely to retain the 'accommodative' monetary policy stance adopted in April 2025. (The author is Chief Economist, Infomerics Valuation and Ratings) ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
a day ago
- Time of India
Child bride at 11: Father stumbles upon secret wedding, mother among 9 booked in Ludhiana
Ludhiana: Tibba police booked an Amritsar-based woman and eight of her associates from Ludhiana in connection with a case of child marriage. As per the reports, the woman got her 11-year-old minor daughter married to a relative in Ludhiana, violating the Prohibition of Child Marriage Act. When her husband, Jagjeet Singh, came to know of the incident, he filed a complaint with the Amritsar police, who then forwarded the matter to their counterparts in Ludhiana for further action. Based on his complaint, the Ludhiana police registered an FIR under Sections 9 and 10 of the Prohibition of Child Marriage Act. The accused include Jagjeet Singh's wife, Kamaljeet Kaur, and her associates — Sukhwinder Singh, his wife Swaranjit Kaur, their son Ravinder Singh alias Ravi, daughters Kajal and Priya, and Anoop Singh, his wife Raj Rani, and son Prince — all residents of Samrala Road, near Tajpur Chowk. The complainant, who is an auto driver, said his wife, along with their daughter, went to Ludhiana at her parental home to stay there for a few days. One day, he noticed her WhatsApp status in which she uploaded pictures of the wedding of their minor daughter. He tried to contact Kamaljeet; however, she did not talk to him. Thereafter, he enquired about the matter and discovered that Kamaljeet got their minor daughter married to her distant relative Prince, aged 35 years, in Ludhiana. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like No dark spots, 10 years younger! Just take this from Guardian URUHIME MOMOKO Learn More Undo Thereafter, Jagjeet Singh lodged a complaint with the Amritsar police. Assistant sub inspector Baljeet Singh, the investigating officer from Tibba police station, said the city police received a complaint from the Amritsar police on May 26. On the basis of it, the police lodged an FIR against the accused mother, the groom, his family, and relatives who attended and arranged the wedding. The accused are yet to be arrested. It is yet to be ascertained why the woman got her minor daughter married. MSID:: 121623791 413 |
Time of India
3 days ago
- Entertainment
- Time of India
Anees Bazmee shares 14-year-old BTS pictures of Salman Khan-starrer ‘Ready': "When I look back... I don't just see a film"
Director Anees Bazmee marked 14 years of his blockbuster comedy 'Ready' with a heartfelt and nostalgic post on Instagram. Sharing a candid behind-the-scenes picture featuring Salman Khan , Bazmee took fans on a sentimental journey, revisiting one of the most loved entertainers of the 2010s. Released on June 3, 2011, 'Ready' was not only a commercial blockbuster but also a film that cemented Salman Khan's image as the quintessential mass entertainer. With its vibrant mix of comedy, romance, and family drama, the film connected instantly with audiences across age groups. In his post, Bazmee reflected on the emotional resonance of the film, writing: "When I look back at 'Ready', I don't just see a film — I see the faces of those who connected with it. Strangers who became family through a shared story. For 14 years, 'Ready' has lived because you chose to carry him with you." Starring Salman Khan and Asin in the lead roles, the film also featured an ensemble cast including Paresh Rawal, Mahesh Manjrekar , Anuradha Patel, Arya Babbar, Zarine Khan, and Akhilendra Mishra. With its catchy songs, hilarious one-liners, and over-the-top humour, 'Ready' became a family favourite and remains a fixture on television reruns. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like No dark spots, 10 years younger! Just take this from Watsons URUHIME MOMOKO Learn More Undo Anees Bazmee, known for his distinct blend of humour and heart, has delivered multiple box office hits like 'No Entry' and 'Welcome', in addition to 'Ready'. His ability to craft stories that resonate with the masses while delivering laughter and emotion has earned him a reputation as one of Bollywood's most reliable filmmakers. As fans celebrated the film's anniversary online, Bazmee's post served as a sweet reminder of the enduring charm of 'Ready'. Check out our list of the latest Hindi , English , Tamil , Telugu , Malayalam , and Kannada movies . Don't miss our picks for the best Hindi movies , best Tamil movies, and best Telugu films .
Time of India
26-05-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
In Iran, Pakistan PM expresses willingness to hold peace talks with India to resolve all issues
Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday expressed his willingness to hold peace talks with India to resolve all issues, including Kashmir, terrorism, water and trade. Sharif made the remarks in Tehran, where he arrived on the second leg of his four-nation tour. The Prime Minister flew from Turkiye to the Iranian capital, where President Masoud Pezeshkian received him at the Saadabad Palace. Sharif received a guard of honour and held talks with President Pezeshkian. Addressing a joint press conference with Pezeshkian, Sharif said he was ready to talk with India for the sake of peace. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Collagen is not needed, 42-year-old woman's skin changes URUHIME MOMOKO Learn More Undo "We want to resolve all disputes, including the Kashmir issue and the water issue, through negotiations and are also ready to talk to our neighbour on trade and counter-terrorism," he said. He also warned of a response if India chose the path of war. Live Events "But if they choose to remain aggressors, then we shall defend our territory ... like we have done a few days ago," he said. "But if they accept my offer of peace, then we will show that we really want peace, seriously and sincerely." India has made it clear that it will only have a dialogue with Pakistan on the return of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and the issue of terrorism. Sharif also claimed that his country came out "victorious" out of the four-day war with India. Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated after the April 22 Pahalgam attack, which claimed 26 lives. India carried out precision strikes as part of Operation Sindoor on terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in the early hours of May 7. It was followed by Pakistan's attempt to attack Indian military bases on May 8, 9, and 10. The Indian side responded strongly to the Pakistani actions. The on-ground hostilities ended with an understanding of stopping the military actions following talks between the directors general of military operations of both sides on May 10. Sharif appreciated Pezeshkian for his concern during the recent conflict between Pakistan and India. He also lauded Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi for visiting Pakistan during the military escalation, calling him an "outstanding diplomat". Talking about bilateral ties with Iran, Sharif said that the two countries' delegations had a "very productive and useful meeting ... which covered all areas of our mutual interests and cooperation". "There was total agreement that our two brotherly and neighbourly countries must enhance our cooperation in the field of trade, investments, commerce, in fact, every walk of life," he said. He was accompanied by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, Interior Minister Mohsin Raza Naqvi, Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, and Special Assistant to the Prime Minister Tariq Fatemi. Sharif and his delegation will also meet Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei "to discuss bilateral matters as well as important regional issues".
Time of India
21-05-2025
- Time of India
3 women from Ganjam among Mumbai building collapse victims
Berhampur: Three women of a family from Ganjam district were among six killed after the portion of a slab in a four-storey building collapsed in Kalyan East, Mumbai on Tuesday. The deceased from Ganjam were identified as Pramila Sahu (56) of Jaugada-Nuagaon in Purushottampur block, and her two daughters, Sunita Sahu (38) and Sujata Padhy (32). Sujata's 4-year-old son and Sunita's 12-year-old daughter, who were in the building, sustained injuries and are undergoing treatment in a nearby hospital. Their condition was stated to be serious, sources said. Sunita's 14-year-old son escaped as he had gone for tuition, while her husband Neelanchal and brother-in-law were at their workplaces. Sunita owned a flat on the second floor of the Saptashrungi building located in Karpewadi area in Kalyan East, where the victims were resting when a part of the inside of the building collapsed from the second floor to the ground floor, sources said. Pramila reached Kalyan on Konark Express early Tuesday and stayed at her elder daughter's house in the building. Some hours before the collapse, she visited Sujata's house, a short distance away. Sujata, along with her mother and four-year-old son, came to Sunita's house to have lunch. Pramila planned to go to her son's house, about 10 km from there, in the evening. The collapse might have occurred just after lunch, said Neelanchal. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like No dark spots, 10 years younger! Just take this from Guardian URUHIME MOMOKO Learn More Undo "I asked my mother to wait until I returned from work," said Jagannath (30), Pramila's son. "Before I arrived, the bodies of my mother and two sisters had been recovered from the debris," said Jagannath, who works in a shop. Janardan Tiwadi, a resident of Jaugada-Nuagaon who settled in Kalyan area to carry out business, said they rushed to the site at 5 pm after they came to know about the building collapse. "With the help of police, we shifted the injured persons to nearby hospitals," he said. "After the death of her husband Kalu Charan Sahu, Pramila frequently went to her village and returned alone by train. Her family had settled in Kalyan about 20 years. She had returned to Kalyan ahead of Sabitri Brata on May 26 to give gifts to her daughters, as per tradition in Odia families," he said. Maharashtra govt has declared Rs 5 lakh compensation to family members of the deceased. Berhampur: Three women of a family from Ganjam district were among six killed after the portion of a slab in a four-storey building collapsed in Kalyan East, Mumbai on Tuesday. The deceased from Ganjam were identified as Pramila Sahu (56) of Jaugada-Nuagaon in Purushottampur block, and her two daughters, Sunita Sahu (38) and Sujata Padhy (32). Sujata's 4-year-old son and Sunita's 12-year-old daughter, who were in the building, sustained injuries and are undergoing treatment in a nearby hospital. Their condition was stated to be serious, sources said. Sunita's 14-year-old son escaped as he had gone for tuition, while her husband Neelanchal and brother-in-law were at their workplaces. Sunita owned a flat on the second floor of the Saptashrungi building located in Karpewadi area in Kalyan East, where the victims were resting when a part of the inside of the building collapsed from the second floor to the ground floor, sources said. Pramila reached Kalyan on Konark Express early Tuesday and stayed at her elder daughter's house in the building. Some hours before the collapse, she visited Sujata's house, a short distance away. Sujata, along with her mother and four-year-old son, came to Sunita's house to have lunch. Pramila planned to go to her son's house, about 10 km from there, in the evening. The collapse might have occurred just after lunch, said Neelanchal. "I asked my mother to wait until I returned from work," said Jagannath (30), Pramila's son. "Before I arrived, the bodies of my mother and two sisters had been recovered from the debris," said Jagannath, who works in a shop. Janardan Tiwadi, a resident of Jaugada-Nuagaon who settled in Kalyan area to carry out business, said they rushed to the site at 5 pm after they came to know about the building collapse. "With the help of police, we shifted the injured persons to nearby hospitals," he said. "After the death of her husband Kalu Charan Sahu, Pramila frequently went to her village and returned alone by train. Her family had settled in Kalyan about 20 years. She had returned to Kalyan ahead of Sabitri Brata on May 26 to give gifts to her daughters, as per tradition in Odia families," he said. Maharashtra govt has declared Rs 5 lakh compensation to family members of the deceased.
