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First Post
7 days ago
- Business
- First Post
China GDP grows 5.2%, Xi gets a boost for hammering out final trade deal with Trump
With better-than-expected growth of 5.2% in the April-June, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has got a boost to negotiate better terms in ongoing trade talks with the United States. He has already leveraged the near-monopoly over rare earths to force US President Donald Trump to blink and make concessions. read more Chinese President Xi Jinping makes a toast at the beginning of the welcoming banquet at the Great Hall of the People during the first day of the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China on May 14, 2017. (Source: Reuters) China's better-than-expected quarterly GDP growth of 5.2 per cent has strengthened President Xi Jinping's hand in trade negotiations with the United States. However, there are crucial strings attached with the above-expectation gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the April-June quarter. The economic data published today shows that the Chinese economy remained resilient amid tariffs — even though there are caveats to such resilience. The GDP growth surpassed economists' expectation of 5.1 per cent growth and China's target of 5 per cent growth. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD China already has an upper hand in trade negotiations with the United States. Leveraging its near-monopoly in global rare earth supplies, China forced US President Donald Trump to blink in the trade war and offer concessions to secure rare earth supplies — the blockade threatened to choke virtually every industry from household electronics to automobiles and defence equipment. The latest data is further set to strengthen China's position in the trade war. China gets a boost in US trade talks With the quarterly results, China has got a boost in trade talks with the United States in more than one ways. Firstly, the better-than-expected GDP growth has showed that Chinese economy remains resilient. Secondly, despite Trump's 145 per cent tariff, exports remained largely resilient and China found new markets in Southeast Asia and European Union (EU) to offset any US-related losses. So far this year, while Chinese shipments to the United States fell by 10.9 per cent, Chinese shipments to Southeast Asia and EU have grown by 13 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively, according to CNBC. Thirdly, coupled with the rare earths leverage, China has demonstrated that the United States needs China much more than China needs the United States. With such advantages, China can press for favourable terms in ongoing trade talks with the Trump administration. But China's economy is not that good Even as China's GDP grew more than expected and that has strengthened Xi's hand, the situation is not entirely rosy and there are areas of concern. For one, even as the GDP growth was above the economists' expectation of 5.1 per cent, it was down from the GDP growth of 5.4 per cent in the first quarter. Moreover, retail sales and investment remained lower, showing that the domestic economy remains week and people don't perceive the economy as growing. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'Industrial production remains the key growth driver, but it's highly automated and doesn't generate jobs. Q3 [third quarter] growth is at risk without stronger fiscal stimulus. Consumption is weaker than expected — momentum from the trade-in programme has faded, and housing remains a drag with low transaction volumes. Trump's tariffs hit exporters hard, triggering SME bankruptcies and damaging sentiment. Both consumers and businesses have turned more cautious, while exporters are increasingly looking overseas for growth,' Dan Wang, the China Director of Eurasia Group, Singapore, told Reuters. For many, the economy does not 'feel' like growing and that perception will have consequences, according to Nick Marro, the Principal Economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit. 'For many, this doesn't 'feel' like an economy growing at around 5 per cent. That sentiment factor has implications for how sustainable future retail spending is, as well as considerations for businesses about future investment expansions, as well as hiring and wage growth,' Marro told CNN. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Time of India
31-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
China manufacturing shrinks in May despite trade war truce
China's manufacturing activity shrank in May for the second month running, official data showed Saturday, despite Beijing reaching a temporary ceasefire in a blistering trade war with the United States. Beijing and Washington agreed this month to pause staggeringly high tariffs, although US President Donald Trump on Friday accused China of breaching the de-escalation deal. While the two sides reached a temporary truce in mid-May, China recorded a contraction in factory output for the month. The Purchasing Managers' Index -- a key measure of industrial output -- came in at 49.5, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The reading was up from April's 49 but fell short of the 50-point mark that separates growth and contraction. China's overall economic output in May "continued to expand", NBS statistician Zhao Qinghe said in a statement. According to some "US-related enterprises", foreign trade orders "restarted at an accelerated pace, and import and export conditions improved", Zhao added. The non-manufacturing PMI, which measures activity in the services sector, came in at 50.3, down from April's 50.4. Chinese leaders are aiming for economic growth this year of five percent, a goal considered ambitious by many economists as the country battles weak domestic consumption. Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said "economic momentum is stable" although companies are operating in a challenging environment. "Firms in China and the US with exposure to international trade have to run their business under persistently high uncertainty," he wrote in a note. Although Beijing and Washington agreed this month to pause steep levies for 90 days, the two sides already appeared deadlocked in negotiations. Trump argued Friday that Beijing had "totally violated" the bilateral deal, without providing details. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'Sell America' is back as long-dated Treasurys hit 5% in wake of Moody's downgrade
The yield on US 30-year Treasurys rose above 5% on Monday. The increase follows Moody's downgrading of the US credit rating on Friday. Stock futures are down in premarket trading. The US lost its last remaining top-tier credit rating on Friday, and investors responded on Monday by reviving the "sell America" trade. Everything from bonds to stocks to the US dollar ticked lower to start the week, with markets assessing the impact of Moody's decision to downgrade the US debt rating from Aaaa to Aa1. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up as much as 12 basis points to 5.02%, the highest level since late 2023. This embedded content is not available in your region. The 10-year yield also rose about 10 basis points to surpass 4.5%. Bond yields rise when prices decline. This embedded content is not available in your region. "If we stay at these levels this would be a higher yield than that seen at the worst close after Liberation Day," Jim Reid, managing director and head of global macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note on Monday. The previous triple-A rating signifies top-tier creditworthiness, with the US at minimal risk of not being able to meet its obligations to debt investors. Other countries with the top rating include the European Union, Canada, and Germany. Aa1 is the second-highest rating and still indicates a very low credit risk of a borrower. The ratings agency's decision highlights a growing concern in the bond market. Market pros tell Business Insider that any fiscal package that adds substantially to the deficit could be met with protest from "bond vigilantes" and send yields spiking to painful levels. "The combination of diminished appetite to buy US assets and the rigidity of a US fiscal process that locks in very high deficits is what is making the market very nervous," George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank's head of FX research, said in a note on Monday. He added that a key problem for the US was bond and currency markets failing to properly price in fiscal risks. Here's how other assets were moving on Monday. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 285 points. "The US credit rating downgrade adds to a long list of uncertainties that the stock market is weighing right now, including tariff, fiscal, inflation and economic ones," Clark Geranen, the chief market strategist at CalBay investments, wrote in a note. "US-related stocks and investment trusts dominated the list of losers on Monday morning in London, while precious metals miners were higher as gold and silver prices moved up and the dollar weakened," AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould wrote in a Monday note. "Significantly, the US 30-year Treasury yield flashed a warning signal as it hit the 5% mark for the first time since April, with the proposed tax cuts making their way through Congress, expected in some quarters to increase the US deficit." The US dollar continued to decline amid the sell-off in US assets. The US dollar index, which weighs the greenback against a basket of other currencies, traded around 100 on Monday, nearly 1% lower than its intraday peak on Friday. The index is down 7% since the start of the year. In the past, US credit downgrades have had a "short-lived" impact on the value of the dollar, according to Kit Juckes, a chief FX strategist at Societe Generale. "At most, it's something else to nibble away at the confidence of foreign holders of US assets," Juckes said of the downgrade in a note on Monday. "For now, the economic data is just about keeping the idea of US exceptionalism alive, but if the economy does weaken in the coming months as higher tariffs finally arrive, hindsight geniuses will look back at days like today and say it was obvious the dollar was setting itself up for a sizeable fall." Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'Sell America' is back as long-dated Treasurys hit 5% in wake of Moody's downgrade
The yield on US 30-year Treasurys rose above 5% on Monday. The increase follows Moody's downgrading of the US credit rating on Friday. Stock futures are down in premarket trading. The US lost its last remaining top-tier credit rating on Friday, and investors responded on Monday by reviving the "sell America" trade. Everything from bonds to stocks to the US dollar ticked lower to start the week, with markets assessing the impact of Moody's decision to downgrade the US debt rating from Aaaa to Aa1. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up as much as 12 basis points to 5.02%, the highest level since late 2023. This embedded content is not available in your region. The 10-year yield also rose about 10 basis points to surpass 4.5%. Bond yields rise when prices decline. This embedded content is not available in your region. "If we stay at these levels this would be a higher yield than that seen at the worst close after Liberation Day," Jim Reid, managing director and head of global macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note on Monday. The previous triple-A rating signifies top-tier creditworthiness, with the US at minimal risk of not being able to meet its obligations to debt investors. Other countries with the top rating include the European Union, Canada, and Germany. Aa1 is the second-highest rating and still indicates a very low credit risk of a borrower. The ratings agency's decision highlights a growing concern in the bond market. Market pros tell Business Insider that any fiscal package that adds substantially to the deficit could be met with protest from "bond vigilantes" and send yields spiking to painful levels. "The combination of diminished appetite to buy US assets and the rigidity of a US fiscal process that locks in very high deficits is what is making the market very nervous," George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank's head of FX research, said in a note on Monday. He added that a key problem for the US was bond and currency markets failing to properly price in fiscal risks. Here's how other assets were moving on Monday. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 285 points. "The US credit rating downgrade adds to a long list of uncertainties that the stock market is weighing right now, including tariff, fiscal, inflation and economic ones," Clark Geranen, the chief market strategist at CalBay investments, wrote in a note. "US-related stocks and investment trusts dominated the list of losers on Monday morning in London, while precious metals miners were higher as gold and silver prices moved up and the dollar weakened," AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould wrote in a Monday note. "Significantly, the US 30-year Treasury yield flashed a warning signal as it hit the 5% mark for the first time since April, with the proposed tax cuts making their way through Congress, expected in some quarters to increase the US deficit." The US dollar continued to decline amid the sell-off in US assets. The US dollar index, which weighs the greenback against a basket of other currencies, traded around 100 on Monday, nearly 1% lower than its intraday peak on Friday. The index is down 7% since the start of the year. In the past, US credit downgrades have had a "short-lived" impact on the value of the dollar, according to Kit Juckes, a chief FX strategist at Societe Generale. "At most, it's something else to nibble away at the confidence of foreign holders of US assets," Juckes said of the downgrade in a note on Monday. "For now, the economic data is just about keeping the idea of US exceptionalism alive, but if the economy does weaken in the coming months as higher tariffs finally arrive, hindsight geniuses will look back at days like today and say it was obvious the dollar was setting itself up for a sizeable fall." Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Insider
19-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
'Sell America' is back as long-dated Treasurys hit 5% in wake of Moody's downgrade
Yields on Treasurys jumped on Monday after Moody's downgraded the US' credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 and President Donald Trump 's sweeping tax-cut bill passed a vote on Sunday. The return on 30-year Treasurys rose as much as 0.13 percentage points to 5.03% as at 5:30 a.m. ET to the highest level since late 2023. The 10-year yield also rose about 10 basis points to 4.5%. When yields rise, the price of the bond decreases. "If we stay at these levels this would be a higher yield than that seen at the worst close after Liberation Day," Jim Reid, managing director and head of global macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note on Monday. The previous triple-A rating signified that an economy poses minimal risk and is in a good position to repay its debts. Aa1 is the second-highest rating and indicates a country is subject to very low credit risk. Other countries with the top rating include the European Union, Canada, and Germany. "Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs," Moody's said in a statement. The ratings agency said it expected federal debt to rise from 98% of gross domestic product in 2024 to about 135% by 2035. S&P was the first agency to downgrade the US from the top score in August 2011. "The combination of diminished appetite to buy US assets and the rigidity of a US fiscal process that locks in very high deficits is what is making the market very nervous," George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank's head of FX research, said in a note on Monday. He added that a key problem for the US was bond and currency markets failing to properly price in fiscal risks. S&P 500 futures fell more than 1% in premarket trading, while Nasdaq futures were down more than 1.5% and Dow futures shed close to 1%. "US-related stocks and investment trusts dominated the list of losers on Monday morning in London, while precious metals miners were higher as gold and silver prices moved up and the dollar weakened," AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould wrote in a Monday note. "Significantly, the US 30-year Treasury yield flashed a warning signal as it hit the 5% mark for the first time since April, with the proposed tax cuts making their way through Congress, expected in some quarters to increase the US deficit."
