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Scottish Sun
26-05-2025
- Politics
- Scottish Sun
How Iran's Trump assassination plot would trigger full-scale invasion by the US and topple Ayatollah's evil regime
Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) FURIOUS Iran would face a devastating invasion if it followed through on threats to assassinate Donald Trump, a former US advisor has warned. Dr Kenneth Katzman, a retired Middle East analyst for the US Congressional Research Service, even warned of a 'full-scale invasion' with special forces storming the streets of Tehran. Sign up for Scottish Sun newsletter Sign up 8 Iranian soldiers take part in a military parade Credit: AFP 8 Could the US really try to topple the Ayatollah's regime? Credit: Getty 8 Donald Trump is at the top of Iran's 'hit list' according to a former aide Credit: PA 8 He spoke after Trump's former security advisor, John Bolton, said the US President is "at the top" of an 'assassination list' from the Middle East nation. Bolton, who claimed he is also on the hit list, said it would be revenge for a US airstrike in 2020 in Iraq that killed military leader Qasem Soleimani, ordered by Trump. But Dr Katzman warns Iran would face a response so dramatic it would overthrow its regime. Analysts have previously warned such a conflict would be a devastating quagmire. US historian Max Boot predicted would take up to 1.6million troops for the US to fully invade and occupy Iran. The US forces would face a war that spill across the Middle East as they tried to battle Iran's wide-ranging proxy forces. Other forecasts have predicted smaller attacks - such as the long mulled joint-strike with Israel on Iran's nuclear sites. Dr Katzman told The Sun: 'If Trump were to be assassinated, there would be many targets in Tehran that would be attacked. 'Islamic Revolutionary Guard Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters is in Tehran, the besieged headquarters, all the security forces I'm sure would be attacked. 'If they assassinated the US president you could even see, conceivably, US ground operations in Iran if that happens. Trump is top Iran assassination target - their terror network spreads across Europe & US, warns ex-White House official 'It would be just so dramatic. You could even see US special forces operations in Iran and infantry operations in Iran, the marketplace is wide open. 'The objective of troops in Iran? To take the regime out. He added: "If they assassinated a US president, a full-scale invasion is very much an option." In November last year the Justice Department said it charged a man, Farhad Shakeri, 51, for his alleged role in a plot to assassinate Trump, tasked by the Iranian regime. Iran, where the suspect is now believed to be, denies this. Dr Katzman also warned that Bolton's comments may have been a cry for help over an "active plot" He continued: 'I think he's trying to highlight that he feels threatened. Trump withdrew the security protection for some of these guys that served in the first term that I mentioned, including Bolton. 'So I think Bolton, by bringing this up again, is trying to signal that he feels he needs security, there is still a threat, still an active plot.' 'Iran knows full well that that's the kind of thing that could bring a massive US intervention, on enough scale that the regime is gone." But Dr Katzman believes the extent of the retaliation will deter Iran from following through with any threats. Instead, he believes the threats serve as leverage to intimidate the US. He added: 'What's always puzzled me and other experts like me: what is Iran hoping to achieve here? Because the retaliation presumably would be so dramatic. 8 Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi holds up a photo of Quds Force Commander General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US attack Credit: Getty 8 Iranian troops firing a missile during the second day of a military exercise in the Makran sea Credit: Rex 8 Ex-National Security Adviser John Bolton stands alongside US President Donald Trump in 2018 Credit: AFP Trump on Iran 'hit list' by James Moules, Foreign News Reporter DONALD Trump is right "at the top" of Iran's chilling assassination hit list, a former White House official has claimed. John Bolton, who served in Trump's first administration, made the ominous warning that Iran has an "assassination list" on Sky News' The World. The ex-National Security Adviser warned: "I think Iran's terror network is really quite extensive in Europe and in the United States." He claimed that a number of US government officials were being targeted in relation to the assassination of top Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Soleimani, who was designated as a terrorist by the United States, had been a highly powerful figure in the brutal Iranian regime. He commanded the Quds Force, a branch of Iran's security forces that is responsible for operations outside Iranian territory. Bolton claimed he is himself on Iran's hit list, although he made clear that Trump is the number one target. "President Trump is at the top of their list of their targets," he said. The Iranian regime would target people using "Eastern European criminal gangs and others", Bolton further claimed READ MORE HERE 'No one could quite figure out what the percentage is for Iran in actually going ahead with these types of operations. 'The retaliation is sure to be dramatic, but I think the sense is that Iran feels that these operations do give it a certain leverage and ability to intimidate, an ability to exert leverage. 'That's the way Iran sees it. I don't think anybody here necessarily sees it that way, but that's how Iran sees it. 'There have been no policy changes by the threat of Iranian assassination attempts in the United States. 'These threats have not caused any change in policy more favorable to the regime, so it's a mystery what Iran is really thinking with these plots.' Dr Katzman served his role – specialising in Iran, the Persian Gulf States, Afghanistan, Iran back groups in Iran and South Asia – from 1991 to 2022. His job was to provide reports and briefings to Members of Congress on US policy, analysing legislative proposals.
The Irish Sun
26-05-2025
- Politics
- The Irish Sun
How Iran's Trump assassination plot would trigger full-scale invasion by the US and topple Ayatollah's evil regime
FURIOUS Iran would face a devastating invasion if it followed through on threats to assassinate Donald Trump, a former US advisor has warned. Dr Kenneth Katzman, a retired Middle East analyst for the US Congressional Research Service, even warned of a 'full-scale invasion' with special forces storming the streets of Tehran. 8 Iranian soldiers take part in a military parade Credit: AFP 8 Could the US really try to topple the Ayatollah's regime? Credit: Getty 8 Donald Trump is at the top of Iran's 'hit list' according to a former aide Credit: PA 8 He spoke after Trump's former security advisor, John Bolton, said the Bolton, who claimed he is also on the hit list, said it would be revenge for a US airstrike in 2020 in Iraq that killed military leader Qasem Soleimani, ordered by Trump. But Dr Katzman warns Iran would face a response so dramatic it would overthrow its regime. Analysts have previously warned such a conflict would be a devastating quagmire. US historian Max Boot predicted would take up to 1.6million troops for the US to fully invade and occupy Iran. The US forces would face a war that spill across the Middle East as they tried to battle Iran's wide-ranging proxy forces. Other forecasts have predicted smaller attacks - such as the Dr Katzman told The Sun: 'If Trump were to be assassinated, there would be many targets in Tehran that would be attacked. Most read in The US Sun 'Islamic Revolutionary Guard Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters is in Tehran, the besieged headquarters, all the security forces I'm sure would be attacked. 'If they assassinated the US president you could even see, conceivably, US ground operations in Iran if that happens. Trump is top Iran assassination target - their terror network spreads across Europe & US, warns ex-White House official 'It would be just so dramatic. You could even see US special forces operations in Iran and infantry operations in Iran, the marketplace is wide open. 'The objective of troops in Iran? To take the regime out. He added: "If they assassinated a US president, a full-scale invasion is very much an option." In November last year the Justice Department said it charged a man, Farhad Shakeri, 51, for his alleged role in a plot to assassinate Trump, tasked by the Iranian regime. Iran, where the suspect is now believed to be, denies this. Dr Katzman also warned that Bolton's comments may have been a cry for help over an "active plot" He continued: 'I think he's trying to highlight that he feels threatened. Trump withdrew the security protection for some of these guys that served in the first term that I mentioned, including Bolton. 'So I think Bolton, by bringing this up again, is trying to signal that he feels he needs security, there is still a threat, still an active plot.' 'Iran knows full well that that's the kind of thing that could bring a massive US intervention, on enough scale that the regime is gone." But Dr Katzman believes the extent of the retaliation will deter Iran from following through with any threats. Instead, he believes the threats serve as leverage to intimidate the US. He added: 'What's always puzzled me and other experts like me: what is Iran hoping to achieve here? Because the retaliation presumably would be so dramatic. 8 Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi holds up a photo of Quds Force Commander General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US attack Credit: Getty 8 Iranian troops firing a missile during the second day of a military exercise in the Makran sea Credit: Rex 8 Ex-National Security Adviser John Bolton stands alongside US President Donald Trump in 2018 Credit: AFP Trump on Iran 'hit list' by James Moules, Foreign News Reporter DONALD Trump is right "at the top" of Iran's chilling assassination hit list, a former White House official has claimed. John Bolton, who served in Trump's first administration, made the ominous warning that Iran has an "assassination list" on Sky News' The World. The ex-National Security Adviser warned: "I think Iran's terror network is really quite extensive in Europe and in the United States." He claimed that a number of US government officials were being targeted in relation to the assassination of top Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Soleimani, who was designated as a terrorist by the United States, had been a highly powerful figure in the brutal Iranian regime. He commanded the Quds Force, a branch of Iran's security forces that is responsible for operations outside Iranian territory. Bolton claimed he is himself on Iran's hit list, although he made clear that Trump is the number one target. "President Trump is at the top of their list of their targets," he said. The Iranian regime would target people using "Eastern European criminal gangs and others", Bolton further claimed 'No one could quite figure out what the percentage is for Iran in actually going ahead with these types of operations. 'The retaliation is sure to be dramatic, but I think the sense is that Iran feels that these operations do give it a certain leverage and ability to intimidate, an ability to exert leverage. 'That's the way Iran sees it. I don't think anybody here necessarily sees it that way, but that's how Iran sees it. 'There have been no policy changes by the threat of Iranian assassination attempts in the United States. 'These threats have not caused any change in policy more favorable to the regime, so it's a mystery what Iran is really thinking with these plots.' Read more on the Irish Sun Dr Katzman served his role – specialising in Iran, the Persian Gulf States, Afghanistan, Iran back groups in Iran and South Asia – from 1991 to 2022. His job was to provide reports and briefings to Members of Congress on US policy, analysing legislative proposals. 8
Asia Times
21-03-2025
- Business
- Asia Times
Sinking ship: US undersea nuclear deterrent's plunging credibility
Delays and cost overruns in the US Columbia-class SSBN program threaten the credibility of its undersea nuclear deterrent and ability to match China's naval expansion.' The US Navy's plan to replace its aging undersea nuclear deterrent faces costly delays, raising concerns about the credibility of its posture and future ability to keep pace with China's naval expansion. This month, the US Congressional Research Service (CRS) released a report mentioning that the US Navy faces an estimated 12 to 16-month delay in the delivery of its first Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), threatening the timely replacement of aging Ohio-class SSBNs. The delay, attributed to shipyard workforce shortages, supply chain disruptions and component delivery setbacks—particularly Northrop Grumman's late turbine generators and Huntington Ingalls Industries' bow section—raises concerns about the impact on subsequent submarines. The US Navy is considering extending the service life of up to five Ohio-class boats to mitigate risks, but this strategy involves additional costs and logistical hurdles. Meanwhile, the simultaneous construction of Columbia-class SSBNs and Virginia-class attack submarines (SSNs) presents industrial-base challenges as shipyards and suppliers struggle to scale production. The US Navy and industry aim to increase Virginia-class production to two boats annually by 2028, yet the current output remains at 1.1-1.2 submarines per year. Rising costs compound the issue, with the Columbia-class program's procurement budget growing 12.1% in the past year alone. Further overruns could siphon funding from other US Navy shipbuilding programs, placing additional strain on the US Department of Defense's (DOD) long-term naval strategy. Amid ballooning costs and delays, the US may need to ramp up submarine production more urgently than ever. In an article this month for We Are The Mighty, Logan Nye mentions that, at present, China relies on anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) such as the DF-21D and DF-26B to keep US carrier battlegroups at bay from Taiwan. Nye points out those ASBMs are useless against SSNs that can evade them by diving. He also emphasizes that SSNs are self-sufficient for months, which may be critical if US supply chains in the Pacific are threatened. Further, in a 2024 American Affairs article, Jerry Hendrix suggests that SSNs may be considered the 'first response force' during a Taiwan conflict due to those advantages. However, Hendrix points out that the post-Cold War peace dividend eroded the US submarine industrial base, resulting in the US not having enough submarines when most needed. The situation is not much better for the US SSBN fleet, as it too suffers from a weak US submarine industrial base. The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) says that as of August 2024, 14 Ohio-class SSBNs form the foundation of the US sea-based nuclear deterrent. According to NTI, each Ohio-class SSBN has 20 missile launch tubes armed with the Trident II D5 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The report also says the US Navy is replacing these older missiles with the Trident II D5LE, which has an upgraded guidance system for improved accuracy. The report mentions that assuming the US Navy has 12 operational Ohio-class SSBNs with 20 launch tubes each and four warheads per missile, they have 960 warheads. However, it mentions that only 8-10 Ohio-class SSBNs are typically deployed at one time due to regular minor repairs, so the number of active warheads in the field may be closer to 720. The US Navy's plan to retire Ohio-class SSBNs at approximately one per year starting in 2027 raises concerns about the credibility and survivability of the US undersea nuclear deterrent since they carry 54% of the US deployed nuclear arsenal. Emphasizing the importance of the US SSBN fleet, Geoff Wilson and other writers mention in a February 2025 Stimson Center article that SSBNs are the cornerstone of the US 'finite deterrence' doctrine, with SSBN stealth and survivability disincentivizing a first strike that would eliminate all other nuclear forces, creating strategic stability at lower cost. Wilson and others argue that the US SSBN fleet can maintain deterrence against multiple targets at a lower cost than intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), which are less critical for deterrence than other delivery options such as bombers. However, a smaller US SSBN fleet could undermine the credibility of the US undersea nuclear arsenal. In a June 2020 article for The Strategist, Thomas Mahnken and Bryan Clark argue that while the US sea-based nuclear arsenal is the most survivable leg of its nuclear triad, it is also the most brittle. Mahnken and Clark argue that if an SSBN can't launch its missiles, communicate with commanders or is destroyed, all its missiles will be lost. They also highlight that losing only one SSBN on patrol could eliminate an entire leg of the nuclear triad. Further, they point out that the lethality of the US undersea nuclear deterrent has prompted near-peer adversaries like China and Russia to enhance their anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities to target US SSBNs. Emphasizing the potential fragility of the US undersea nuclear arsenal, they project that during the 2030s, it is probable that only one Columbia-class SSBN will be operational at any given time in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, supported by one or two vessels at sea as backup. Despite those fragility concerns, Owen Cote Jr mentions in a January 2019 article in the peer-reviewed Bulletin of Atomic Scientists journal that SSBNs remain the most credible deterrent for the US due to their unmatched survivability and stealth. Cote Jr. highlights the historical effectiveness of US SSBNs, particularly during the Cold War, when they proved resilient against Soviet ASW capabilities. He also addresses concerns about emerging technologies, such as AI and quantum computing, which could make oceans transparent. Regarding those concerns, Cote Jr says these fears are largely unfounded, emphasizing the US's advanced acoustic surveillance systems, such as SOSUS and the Fixed Distributed System (FDS), that can detect Chinese or Russian submarines alongside its favorable maritime geography encompassing vast swathes of the Atlantic and Pacific, make it exceedingly difficult for near-peer adversaries to detect its SSBNs. Further, Stephen Biddle and Eric Labs mention in a Foreign Policy article this month that while China's shipbuilding capacity dwarfs the US's by a factor of 230, US warships are typically larger and have superior sensors, electronics and weapons. Contextualizing submarine capabilities, Biddle and Labs mention that China's submarine force consists of mostly conventionally powered submarines, while the US operates an all-nuclear fleet of 49 SSNs, 14 SSBNs and four nuclear cruise missile submarines (SSGN). They emphasize that, unlike their Chinese counterparts, US crews have battle experience and superior training. However, Biddle and Labs say that China is building aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines in half the time it takes the US to make the same vessels. They caution that the US places itself at serious risk by assuming future wars will be short and that debates over the US-China naval balance should be tempered by considering the dynamics of competitive production for naval wars of attrition.
15-02-2025
- Business
US to provide India F-35 jets, Trump to increase military sales
The United States will increase military sales to India starting in 2025 and will eventually provide F-35 fighter jets, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday. "We'll be increasing military sales to India by many billions of dollars. We're also paving the way to ultimately provide India with the F-35 stealth fighters," Trump told reporters. Trump did not provide a timeline, but foreign military sales, especially for cutting-edge technology like the stealthy F-35 jet, typically take years to work through. Addressing a joint news conference after a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump also said the countries had struck an agreement that includes India importing more US oil and gas to shrink the trade deficit between the two countries. Trump also said that Washington and New Delhi will be working together to confront what he called: "the threat of radical Islamic terrorism." Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told reporters later that New Delhi follows an elaborate process for foreign military purchases including seeking proposals from manufacturers and evaluating them. "I don't think with regard to the acquisition of an advanced aviation platform by India, that process has started as yet," he said when asked about the F-35 announcement by Trump. "This is currently something that's at the stage of a proposal." Lockheed Martin, which makes the F-35 jet, said that any discussions about the sale of F-35 to India would take place at the government-to-government level. Foreign military sales like those of the F-35 are considered government-to-government deals where the Pentagon acts as an intermediary between the defense contractor and a foreign government. India has agreed to buy more than $20 billion (AED 73.46 billion) of US defense products since 2008. Last year, India agreed to buy 31 MQ-9B SeaGuardian and SkyGuardian drones after deliberations that lasted more than six years. According to the US Congressional Research Service, New Delhi is expected to spend more than $200 billion (AED 730.46 trillion) over the next decade to modernise its military. Lockheed is producing three models of the new warplanes for the US military and allies including Britain, Australia, Italy, Turkey, Norway, the Netherlands, Israel, Japan, South Korea and Belgium. Russia has for decades been the main weapons supplier to India, the world's biggest arms importer, and its fighter jets are part of India's military fleet. But Moscow's ability in recent years to export has been hobbled by the war in Ukraine, making New Delhi look westward.
Asia Times
14-02-2025
- Politics
- Asia Times
US losing crucial hypersonic race to China and Russia
Hypersonic weapons promise game-changing war-fighting capabilities, but unresolved technological flaws, operational vulnerabilities and strategic risks may outweigh their potential advantage for the US military. This month, the US Congressional Research Service (CRS) released a report saying that despite the US's intensified efforts to develop hypersonic weapons, significant questions persist about their operational performance in real-world scenarios. While rivals Russia and China have reportedly deployed operational hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV), the US remains focused on conventionally armed systems requiring higher accuracy and advanced technology than their nuclear-armed counterparts. However, no US hypersonic weapon system has reached full operational status and prototypes continue to undergo evaluation. Critics question the necessity of these weapons for deterrence and highlight their undefined mission roles and high costs. Meanwhile, adversaries' advancements in hypersonic technology raise concerns about eroding the US's qualitative edge. Despite a substantial budget increase to US$6.9 billion for hypersonic research in FY2025, issues surrounding detection, defense and the feasibility of wide-area protection against such threats remain unresolved. US missile defense systems are ill-equipped to counter hypersonic threats, as the weapons are built to evade conventional tracking and interception frameworks. Analysts are divided on the utility of these investments, while the US Congress must balance enhancing offensive capabilities and strengthening hypersonic defense in the face of mounting Chinese and Russian threats. This ambiguity complicates the US Department of Defense's (DOD) strategic calculus and may necessitate new arms control measures or risk mitigation strategies. At the tactical level, Andreas Schmidt mentions in a 2024 Military Review article that hypersonic weapons offer significant advantages through their high speed, maneuverability and survivability. Because they can reach speeds beyond Mach 5, they minimize the reaction time of enemy defenses and reduce the chances of interception. Schmidt adds that these weapons can avoid exo-atmospheric missile defenses by operating within the atmosphere at altitudes between 20 and 60 kilometers and can perform planned and reactive maneuvers to avoid interceptors while delivering rapid and accurate impacts. However, in a January 2022 Defense One article, Joshua Pollack mentions that US hypersonic weapons tests often fail because of aggressive development schedules and immature technologies. The DOD's rush to rapidly prototype and test these weapons has led to poor design, inadequate testing and insufficient oversight, Pollack argues. Failed tests involving the AGM-183 Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) and the US Army's Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), along with a canceled test in March 2023 due to battery issues, highlight these challenges. Despite multiple setbacks, Francis Mahon and Punch Moulton argue in a January 2025 article for 1945 that adopting a 'Fail Fast' approach is crucial for US missile dominance. This method involves rapid testing, learning from failures and iterative improvements, and accelerating innovation and technological advancement. They say frequent testing and accepting failures allow the US to quickly adapt and enhance its hypersonic capabilities, ensuring it stays ahead of near-peer competitors like China and Russia. Even if the US gets its hypersonic weapons program up to speed, David Wright and Cameron Tracy mention in a March 2024 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists article that significant accuracy challenges arise due to extreme thermal stress and communication disruptions during flight. These issues damage sensitive electronics and affect targeting systems, the report says. High drag during low-altitude flight can also slow hypersonic weapons, making them easier targets for missile defense systems. Shawn Rostker argues in a RealClear Defense article that the high cost of hypersonic weapons—one-third more than ballistic missiles with maneuverable warheads—does not justify their tactical benefits. Cruise missiles or drones may suffice for many missions, Rostker says. At the operational level, the US must integrate hypersonic missiles to counter anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategies and ensure command-and-control resilience against adversary interference. In a separate January 2025 RealClear Defense article, Mahon and Moulton mention that hypersonic missiles effectively counter US near-peer adversaries' A2/AD approach. These weapons can breach and neutralize integrated air defense systems from a distance and overcome long-range anti-ship systems, granting US air and naval forces greater operational freedom. However, Heather Penney mentions in a May 2023 Air & Space Forces Magazine article that US kill chains—the sequence of steps needed to detect and attack targets—are vulnerable due to their dependence on interconnected components. China has developed means to jam networks or sensors and defeat weapons in the end stage of the attack, potentially breaking the kill chain at every step. At the strategic level, the US must assess the necessity of nuclear-armed hypersonic weapons for strategic deterrence against advanced missile defenses while managing risks of miscalculation and escalation. Despite the US emphasis on conventionally armed hypersonic weapons, Stephen Reny mentions in a 2020 Strategic Studies Quarterly article that the US may consider nuclear-armed hypersonic weapons necessary to counter advanced ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems and restore a credible second-strike capability vis-à-vis China and Russia's modernizing nuclear arsenals. Nuclear-armed hypersonic weapons can bypass missile defenses, ensuring credible retaliation and maintaining global deterrence stability. However, Shannon Bugos and Kingston Reif argue in a September 2021 Arms Control Association (ACA) report that hypersonic weapons challenge strategic stability by increasing the risks of escalation and arms races. Their speed and maneuverability reduce response time, complicating threat assessment and increasing the chances of miscalculation. They create risks through target and warhead ambiguity, where attacks on dual-use facilities might be mistaken for nuclear strikes. America's stalling US hypersonic weapons program is ultimately a race against failure—one where time, technology and strategy intersect. Whether the US can overcome its challenges and match the pace set by its adversaries will shape the future of military dominance. More than an arms race, hypersonic weapon competition defines today's geopolitical contest, and the US must decide whether to accelerate, recalibrate or rethink its approach, arguably before it is too late.
