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AllAfrica
21-07-2025
- Business
- AllAfrica
US Navy's next-gen destroyer looking like a money pit
The US Navy's next-gen DDG(X) destroyer is designed to outgun China's rising fleet, but soaring costs, shaky tech and shipyard bottlenecks threaten to derail the program before it leaves the drawing board. This month, the US Congressional Research Service (CRS) released a report stating that while the US Navy seeks to procure the first DDG(X) in the early 2030s and has requested US$133.5 million for research and development in FY2026, the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates each ship will cost $4.4 billion—33% more than the US Navy's $3.3 billion projection. The DDG(X) is intended to replace the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and Ticonderoga-class cruisers with enhanced power systems, increased payload capacity and the ability to field directed-energy weapons. However, a June 2025 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report highlighted that critical technologies—including the Integrated Power System (IPS) and hull form—remain immature and may not be fully tested before the ship enters detailed design. That's raising red flags about cost and schedule—further compounded by August 2024 updates to operational requirements made to accommodate faster speeds and higher electrical loads, with no updated timelines or cost estimates provided. Lawmakers must weigh whether DDG(X)'s ambitious design justifies its cost and whether the US Navy is doing enough to manage risks as it transitions from existing destroyer programs. The DDG(X) program embodies the US Navy's effort to field a technologically advanced destroyer capable of countering China's growing surface fleet, but it faces significant technology maturity challenges and industrial constraints that threaten to delay deployment. In terms of tactical capability, Missile Threat notes that the AN/SPY-6 active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar slated to be installed on the new class is 30 times more powerful than the current AN/SPY-1 and can track over 30 times the targets, enabling simultaneous ballistic missile defense, air defense and surface warfare. Defense Daily reported in January 2022 that the DDG(X)'s baseline combat suite includes two 21-cell Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM) launchers and 32 MK 41 vertical launch system (VLS) cells, with potential upgrades including two 600-kilowatt lasers, a third 150-kilowatt laser, and 12 Large Missile Launcher cells for hypersonic weapons. James Black mentions in a January 2024 RAND article that such weapons aboard ships offer precision strike capabilities at the speed of light, reduced engagement costs and deep magazine capacity—traits invaluable for countering fast-moving aerial threats, drones and missiles. Black notes that a 10-second laser shot may cost only $13, massively undercutting missile interceptor prices. He adds that lasers reduce logistical strain, can quickly retarget and offer deep magazines, but suffer from weather limits, require stable platforms and strain power systems. Although the GAO notes that IPS technology is still in development, nuclear propulsion for cruisers and destroyers could be feasible, as the US Navy previously operated such ships during the Cold War. However, renewed great power competition with China and Russia might prompt the US to revisit that idea. Jordan Spector argues in a July 2025 Proceedings article that reviving nuclear propulsion for cruisers and destroyers offers clear advantages in power and endurance. He states that Generation IV reactors are more economical, require less maintenance and eliminate midlife refueling, supporting high-energy weapons like railguns and lasers for sustained combat operations without losing mobility. Spector notes that nuclear vessels are less vulnerable to logistics interdiction, especially as China's capacity to disrupt fuel supply chains grows. However, he highlights challenges such as port access restrictions, limited nuclear-certified shipyards, significant infrastructure costs and historical expense concerns. The operational need for a large surface combatant such as the DDG(X) may be driven in part by the massive growth of China's People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), especially in large surface combatants such as the Type 055 cruiser. According to the US Department of Defense's (DoD) 2024 China Military Power Report (CMPR), the PLAN has significantly expanded its fleet of large surface combatants, reflecting a strategic emphasis on blue-water capability. As of 2023, the report states China fielded over 370 ships, including at least eight Renhai-class (Type 055) cruisers, each displacing approximately 13,000 tons and equipped with 112 VLS cells. The report notes this underscores China's push to project power through a technologically sophisticated fleet. Eric Wertheim, writing in March 2023 for Proceedings, says the Type 055 embodies China's ambition to field high-end blue-water combatants with extensive multi-domain capabilities. The writer notes China's Type 055 displaces up to 13,000 tons and is armed with 112 universal VLS cells capable of deploying HHQ-9B long-range surface-to-air missiles, YJ-18 antiship cruise missiles, YJ-21 hypersonic missiles and potentially antisubmarine or land-attack weapons. He adds that the class integrates the Type 346B AESA radar, towed and hull-mounted sonar suites and variable-depth sonar for layered detection, with shipboard sensors enclosed in a stealth-enhancing integrated mast. Additionally, Wertheim states that the Type 055's other armaments include a 130-millimeter main gun, HHQ-10 point-defense launcher, close-in weapons systems (CIWS) and dual maritime helicopters, giving the platform comprehensive strike, defense and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) reach. Given such developments, Brent Sadler mentions in an April 2023 article for The Heritage Foundation that as tensions with China intensify, the DDG(X) program stands as a strategic imperative for maintaining US naval dominance. Sadler underscores that China's shipbuilding surge, coupled with the US's aging fleet, risks capability gaps without timely DDG(X) deployment. He points out that with only two US shipyards producing large surface combatants, early and predictable investment is crucial. He notes that a funded signal today enables Huntington Ingalls and Bath Iron Works to commit to facility upgrades and workforce expansion, mitigating production delays. He adds that integrating a proven acquisition model like the Virginia-class Integrated Product Team (IPT) ensures yard constraints are addressed during design, improving fabrication efficiency. Sadler warns that delayed action risks ceding US naval initiative in a high-stakes theater such as the Pacific. Whether DDG(X) becomes the US Navy's trump card or a billion-dollar trap will hinge on decisions made before the first keel is even laid.
Sydney Morning Herald
12-06-2025
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
The home politics of Trump's America Alone should not torpedo AUKUS
The decision by the United States to review the AUKUS submarine deal with two of its most faithful allies has rung alarm bells in Canberra, despite the claims from our leaders that we have nothing to fear. In some ways, the review was inevitable. Last October, a US Congressional Research Service report showed America's boat-building program was behind schedule and nowhere near able to supply the first of Australia's AUKUS nuclear submarines on time. The US review is being carried out under President Donald Trump's 'America First' mantra and his nation's ongoing political instability suggests Australia would be wise to conduct its own oversight. Under the first pillar of the pact, Australia will buy three to five nuclear-powered submarines from the US, starting in the 2030s, and build more through a joint initiative with the US and UK. Under the second pillar, the three nations will collaborate on advanced defence technologies. Australia is also contributing at least $4.6 billion to the US defence industrial base to shore up submarine production; $800 million has already been paid. The deal was announced in 2021 under then prime minister Scott Morrison and then US president Joe Biden. Trump's 'America First' has distorted many accepted beliefs about alliances. The US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth's intimidatory call for Australia to boost defence spending by tens of billions of dollars to 3.5 per cent of GDP in the near term was a clear trampling of sovereignty brushed aside by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Now with Trump banging the drum loudly on China and Taiwan, the US review accentuates Australia's sovereignty vulnerability in signing up to the trilateral security partnership that permits a US president to refuse to release the boats to Australia if it is required for American defence priorities. The AUKUS partnership was built on a mutual strength, obligations and respect for sovereignty. The 'America Alone' mindset, while playing big to some of the folks back home, has echoes of the 1930s that, if allowed to fully flower, will further weaken America as world admiration for its values fades. The University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre found support for AUKUS's second pillar funding and future translation of basic research into capability was nascent and unco-ordinated. Given such problems, it is entirely possible that the timing of the review announcement and Trump's obsession with being seen to obtain the best deal in all circumstances are attempts to unbalance Albanese on the eve of their expected meeting at next week's G7 summit, and gain Australian concessions. Defence Minister Richard Marles indicated there were no contingency plans should the AUKUS partnership sink. 'Chopping and changing guarantees, you will never have the capability ... There is a plan here, we are sticking to it, and we're going to deliver it,' he told ABC radio on Thursday.
Scottish Sun
26-05-2025
- Politics
- Scottish Sun
How Iran's Trump assassination plot would trigger full-scale invasion by the US and topple Ayatollah's evil regime
Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) FURIOUS Iran would face a devastating invasion if it followed through on threats to assassinate Donald Trump, a former US advisor has warned. Dr Kenneth Katzman, a retired Middle East analyst for the US Congressional Research Service, even warned of a 'full-scale invasion' with special forces storming the streets of Tehran. Sign up for Scottish Sun newsletter Sign up 8 Iranian soldiers take part in a military parade Credit: AFP 8 Could the US really try to topple the Ayatollah's regime? Credit: Getty 8 Donald Trump is at the top of Iran's 'hit list' according to a former aide Credit: PA 8 He spoke after Trump's former security advisor, John Bolton, said the US President is "at the top" of an 'assassination list' from the Middle East nation. Bolton, who claimed he is also on the hit list, said it would be revenge for a US airstrike in 2020 in Iraq that killed military leader Qasem Soleimani, ordered by Trump. But Dr Katzman warns Iran would face a response so dramatic it would overthrow its regime. Analysts have previously warned such a conflict would be a devastating quagmire. US historian Max Boot predicted would take up to 1.6million troops for the US to fully invade and occupy Iran. The US forces would face a war that spill across the Middle East as they tried to battle Iran's wide-ranging proxy forces. Other forecasts have predicted smaller attacks - such as the long mulled joint-strike with Israel on Iran's nuclear sites. Dr Katzman told The Sun: 'If Trump were to be assassinated, there would be many targets in Tehran that would be attacked. 'Islamic Revolutionary Guard Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters is in Tehran, the besieged headquarters, all the security forces I'm sure would be attacked. 'If they assassinated the US president you could even see, conceivably, US ground operations in Iran if that happens. Trump is top Iran assassination target - their terror network spreads across Europe & US, warns ex-White House official 'It would be just so dramatic. You could even see US special forces operations in Iran and infantry operations in Iran, the marketplace is wide open. 'The objective of troops in Iran? To take the regime out. He added: "If they assassinated a US president, a full-scale invasion is very much an option." In November last year the Justice Department said it charged a man, Farhad Shakeri, 51, for his alleged role in a plot to assassinate Trump, tasked by the Iranian regime. Iran, where the suspect is now believed to be, denies this. Dr Katzman also warned that Bolton's comments may have been a cry for help over an "active plot" He continued: 'I think he's trying to highlight that he feels threatened. Trump withdrew the security protection for some of these guys that served in the first term that I mentioned, including Bolton. 'So I think Bolton, by bringing this up again, is trying to signal that he feels he needs security, there is still a threat, still an active plot.' 'Iran knows full well that that's the kind of thing that could bring a massive US intervention, on enough scale that the regime is gone." But Dr Katzman believes the extent of the retaliation will deter Iran from following through with any threats. Instead, he believes the threats serve as leverage to intimidate the US. He added: 'What's always puzzled me and other experts like me: what is Iran hoping to achieve here? Because the retaliation presumably would be so dramatic. 8 Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi holds up a photo of Quds Force Commander General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US attack Credit: Getty 8 Iranian troops firing a missile during the second day of a military exercise in the Makran sea Credit: Rex 8 Ex-National Security Adviser John Bolton stands alongside US President Donald Trump in 2018 Credit: AFP Trump on Iran 'hit list' by James Moules, Foreign News Reporter DONALD Trump is right "at the top" of Iran's chilling assassination hit list, a former White House official has claimed. John Bolton, who served in Trump's first administration, made the ominous warning that Iran has an "assassination list" on Sky News' The World. The ex-National Security Adviser warned: "I think Iran's terror network is really quite extensive in Europe and in the United States." He claimed that a number of US government officials were being targeted in relation to the assassination of top Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Soleimani, who was designated as a terrorist by the United States, had been a highly powerful figure in the brutal Iranian regime. He commanded the Quds Force, a branch of Iran's security forces that is responsible for operations outside Iranian territory. Bolton claimed he is himself on Iran's hit list, although he made clear that Trump is the number one target. "President Trump is at the top of their list of their targets," he said. The Iranian regime would target people using "Eastern European criminal gangs and others", Bolton further claimed READ MORE HERE 'No one could quite figure out what the percentage is for Iran in actually going ahead with these types of operations. 'The retaliation is sure to be dramatic, but I think the sense is that Iran feels that these operations do give it a certain leverage and ability to intimidate, an ability to exert leverage. 'That's the way Iran sees it. I don't think anybody here necessarily sees it that way, but that's how Iran sees it. 'There have been no policy changes by the threat of Iranian assassination attempts in the United States. 'These threats have not caused any change in policy more favorable to the regime, so it's a mystery what Iran is really thinking with these plots.' Dr Katzman served his role – specialising in Iran, the Persian Gulf States, Afghanistan, Iran back groups in Iran and South Asia – from 1991 to 2022. His job was to provide reports and briefings to Members of Congress on US policy, analysing legislative proposals.
The Irish Sun
26-05-2025
- Politics
- The Irish Sun
How Iran's Trump assassination plot would trigger full-scale invasion by the US and topple Ayatollah's evil regime
FURIOUS Iran would face a devastating invasion if it followed through on threats to assassinate Donald Trump, a former US advisor has warned. Dr Kenneth Katzman, a retired Middle East analyst for the US Congressional Research Service, even warned of a 'full-scale invasion' with special forces storming the streets of Tehran. 8 Iranian soldiers take part in a military parade Credit: AFP 8 Could the US really try to topple the Ayatollah's regime? Credit: Getty 8 Donald Trump is at the top of Iran's 'hit list' according to a former aide Credit: PA 8 He spoke after Trump's former security advisor, John Bolton, said the Bolton, who claimed he is also on the hit list, said it would be revenge for a US airstrike in 2020 in Iraq that killed military leader Qasem Soleimani, ordered by Trump. But Dr Katzman warns Iran would face a response so dramatic it would overthrow its regime. Analysts have previously warned such a conflict would be a devastating quagmire. US historian Max Boot predicted would take up to 1.6million troops for the US to fully invade and occupy Iran. The US forces would face a war that spill across the Middle East as they tried to battle Iran's wide-ranging proxy forces. Other forecasts have predicted smaller attacks - such as the Dr Katzman told The Sun: 'If Trump were to be assassinated, there would be many targets in Tehran that would be attacked. Most read in The US Sun 'Islamic Revolutionary Guard Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters is in Tehran, the besieged headquarters, all the security forces I'm sure would be attacked. 'If they assassinated the US president you could even see, conceivably, US ground operations in Iran if that happens. Trump is top Iran assassination target - their terror network spreads across Europe & US, warns ex-White House official 'It would be just so dramatic. You could even see US special forces operations in Iran and infantry operations in Iran, the marketplace is wide open. 'The objective of troops in Iran? To take the regime out. He added: "If they assassinated a US president, a full-scale invasion is very much an option." In November last year the Justice Department said it charged a man, Farhad Shakeri, 51, for his alleged role in a plot to assassinate Trump, tasked by the Iranian regime. Iran, where the suspect is now believed to be, denies this. Dr Katzman also warned that Bolton's comments may have been a cry for help over an "active plot" He continued: 'I think he's trying to highlight that he feels threatened. Trump withdrew the security protection for some of these guys that served in the first term that I mentioned, including Bolton. 'So I think Bolton, by bringing this up again, is trying to signal that he feels he needs security, there is still a threat, still an active plot.' 'Iran knows full well that that's the kind of thing that could bring a massive US intervention, on enough scale that the regime is gone." But Dr Katzman believes the extent of the retaliation will deter Iran from following through with any threats. Instead, he believes the threats serve as leverage to intimidate the US. He added: 'What's always puzzled me and other experts like me: what is Iran hoping to achieve here? Because the retaliation presumably would be so dramatic. 8 Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi holds up a photo of Quds Force Commander General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US attack Credit: Getty 8 Iranian troops firing a missile during the second day of a military exercise in the Makran sea Credit: Rex 8 Ex-National Security Adviser John Bolton stands alongside US President Donald Trump in 2018 Credit: AFP Trump on Iran 'hit list' by James Moules, Foreign News Reporter DONALD Trump is right "at the top" of Iran's chilling assassination hit list, a former White House official has claimed. John Bolton, who served in Trump's first administration, made the ominous warning that Iran has an "assassination list" on Sky News' The World. The ex-National Security Adviser warned: "I think Iran's terror network is really quite extensive in Europe and in the United States." He claimed that a number of US government officials were being targeted in relation to the assassination of top Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Soleimani, who was designated as a terrorist by the United States, had been a highly powerful figure in the brutal Iranian regime. He commanded the Quds Force, a branch of Iran's security forces that is responsible for operations outside Iranian territory. Bolton claimed he is himself on Iran's hit list, although he made clear that Trump is the number one target. "President Trump is at the top of their list of their targets," he said. The Iranian regime would target people using "Eastern European criminal gangs and others", Bolton further claimed 'No one could quite figure out what the percentage is for Iran in actually going ahead with these types of operations. 'The retaliation is sure to be dramatic, but I think the sense is that Iran feels that these operations do give it a certain leverage and ability to intimidate, an ability to exert leverage. 'That's the way Iran sees it. I don't think anybody here necessarily sees it that way, but that's how Iran sees it. 'There have been no policy changes by the threat of Iranian assassination attempts in the United States. 'These threats have not caused any change in policy more favorable to the regime, so it's a mystery what Iran is really thinking with these plots.' Read more on the Irish Sun Dr Katzman served his role – specialising in Iran, the Persian Gulf States, Afghanistan, Iran back groups in Iran and South Asia – from 1991 to 2022. His job was to provide reports and briefings to Members of Congress on US policy, analysing legislative proposals. 8
AllAfrica
21-03-2025
- Business
- AllAfrica
Sinking ship: US undersea nuclear deterrent's plunging credibility
Delays and cost overruns in the US Columbia-class SSBN program threaten the credibility of its undersea nuclear deterrent and ability to match China's naval expansion.' The US Navy's plan to replace its aging undersea nuclear deterrent faces costly delays, raising concerns about the credibility of its posture and future ability to keep pace with China's naval expansion. This month, the US Congressional Research Service (CRS) released a report mentioning that the US Navy faces an estimated 12 to 16-month delay in the delivery of its first Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), threatening the timely replacement of aging Ohio-class SSBNs. The delay, attributed to shipyard workforce shortages, supply chain disruptions and component delivery setbacks—particularly Northrop Grumman's late turbine generators and Huntington Ingalls Industries' bow section—raises concerns about the impact on subsequent submarines. The US Navy is considering extending the service life of up to five Ohio-class boats to mitigate risks, but this strategy involves additional costs and logistical hurdles. Meanwhile, the simultaneous construction of Columbia-class SSBNs and Virginia-class attack submarines (SSNs) presents industrial-base challenges as shipyards and suppliers struggle to scale production. The US Navy and industry aim to increase Virginia-class production to two boats annually by 2028, yet the current output remains at 1.1-1.2 submarines per year. Rising costs compound the issue, with the Columbia-class program's procurement budget growing 12.1% in the past year alone. Further overruns could siphon funding from other US Navy shipbuilding programs, placing additional strain on the US Department of Defense's (DOD) long-term naval strategy. Amid ballooning costs and delays, the US may need to ramp up submarine production more urgently than ever. In an article this month for We Are The Mighty, Logan Nye mentions that, at present, China relies on anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) such as the DF-21D and DF-26B to keep US carrier battlegroups at bay from Taiwan. Nye points out those ASBMs are useless against SSNs that can evade them by diving. He also emphasizes that SSNs are self-sufficient for months, which may be critical if US supply chains in the Pacific are threatened. Further, in a 2024 American Affairs article, Jerry Hendrix suggests that SSNs may be considered the 'first response force' during a Taiwan conflict due to those advantages. However, Hendrix points out that the post-Cold War peace dividend eroded the US submarine industrial base, resulting in the US not having enough submarines when most needed. The situation is not much better for the US SSBN fleet, as it too suffers from a weak US submarine industrial base. The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) says that as of August 2024, 14 Ohio-class SSBNs form the foundation of the US sea-based nuclear deterrent. According to NTI, each Ohio-class SSBN has 20 missile launch tubes armed with the Trident II D5 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The report also says the US Navy is replacing these older missiles with the Trident II D5LE, which has an upgraded guidance system for improved accuracy. The report mentions that assuming the US Navy has 12 operational Ohio-class SSBNs with 20 launch tubes each and four warheads per missile, they have 960 warheads. However, it mentions that only 8-10 Ohio-class SSBNs are typically deployed at one time due to regular minor repairs, so the number of active warheads in the field may be closer to 720. The US Navy's plan to retire Ohio-class SSBNs at approximately one per year starting in 2027 raises concerns about the credibility and survivability of the US undersea nuclear deterrent since they carry 54% of the US deployed nuclear arsenal. Emphasizing the importance of the US SSBN fleet, Geoff Wilson and other writers mention in a February 2025 Stimson Center article that SSBNs are the cornerstone of the US 'finite deterrence' doctrine, with SSBN stealth and survivability disincentivizing a first strike that would eliminate all other nuclear forces, creating strategic stability at lower cost. Wilson and others argue that the US SSBN fleet can maintain deterrence against multiple targets at a lower cost than intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), which are less critical for deterrence than other delivery options such as bombers. However, a smaller US SSBN fleet could undermine the credibility of the US undersea nuclear arsenal. In a June 2020 article for The Strategist, Thomas Mahnken and Bryan Clark argue that while the US sea-based nuclear arsenal is the most survivable leg of its nuclear triad, it is also the most brittle. Mahnken and Clark argue that if an SSBN can't launch its missiles, communicate with commanders or is destroyed, all its missiles will be lost. They also highlight that losing only one SSBN on patrol could eliminate an entire leg of the nuclear triad. Further, they point out that the lethality of the US undersea nuclear deterrent has prompted near-peer adversaries like China and Russia to enhance their anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities to target US SSBNs. Emphasizing the potential fragility of the US undersea nuclear arsenal, they project that during the 2030s, it is probable that only one Columbia-class SSBN will be operational at any given time in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, supported by one or two vessels at sea as backup. Despite those fragility concerns, Owen Cote Jr mentions in a January 2019 article in the peer-reviewed Bulletin of Atomic Scientists journal that SSBNs remain the most credible deterrent for the US due to their unmatched survivability and stealth. Cote Jr. highlights the historical effectiveness of US SSBNs, particularly during the Cold War, when they proved resilient against Soviet ASW capabilities. He also addresses concerns about emerging technologies, such as AI and quantum computing, which could make oceans transparent. Regarding those concerns, Cote Jr says these fears are largely unfounded, emphasizing the US's advanced acoustic surveillance systems, such as SOSUS and the Fixed Distributed System (FDS), that can detect Chinese or Russian submarines alongside its favorable maritime geography encompassing vast swathes of the Atlantic and Pacific, make it exceedingly difficult for near-peer adversaries to detect its SSBNs. Further, Stephen Biddle and Eric Labs mention in a Foreign Policy article this month that while China's shipbuilding capacity dwarfs the US's by a factor of 230, US warships are typically larger and have superior sensors, electronics and weapons. Contextualizing submarine capabilities, Biddle and Labs mention that China's submarine force consists of mostly conventionally powered submarines, while the US operates an all-nuclear fleet of 49 SSNs, 14 SSBNs and four nuclear cruise missile submarines (SSGN). They emphasize that, unlike their Chinese counterparts, US crews have battle experience and superior training. However, Biddle and Labs say that China is building aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines in half the time it takes the US to make the same vessels. They caution that the US places itself at serious risk by assuming future wars will be short and that debates over the US-China naval balance should be tempered by considering the dynamics of competitive production for naval wars of attrition.
