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Reuters
28-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Canadian dollar steadies as voters head to the polls
TORONTO, April 28 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar was barely changed against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as oil prices fell and Canadians headed to the polls to vote in a general election that has been dominated by concerns about U.S. trade tariffs. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3855 per U.S. dollar, or 72.18 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3826 to 1.3892. The Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has emphasized his experience handling economic issues, is expected to win the most seats, according to the latest polls. However, the race has tightened and a majority government is far from assured. A minority government outcome could weigh on the Canadian dollar, while the currency would likely rally on a surprise victory for the main opposition Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, analysts say. "Foreign exchange markets look remarkably unworried," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said in a note, pointing to the recent decline in USD-CAD risk reversals, or the cost of insuring against a big downside move in the Canadian dollar. The risk of a minority government may be understated, Schamotta said, adding that such an outcome could force the victor to seek an alliance with the separatist Bloc Quebecois, complicating policy setting. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, was trading 2.2% lower at $61.65 a barrel as the global trade war stoked demand fears, while the U.S. dollar lost ground against a basket of major currencies. Canadian wholesale trade most likely fell 0.3% in March from February, with declines in five of the seven subsectors, Statistics Canada said in a flash estimate. Canadian government bond yields were mixed across the curve. The 10-year was down about half a basis point at 3.168%.
Reuters
17-04-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Canadian dollar heads for seventh straight weekly gain as oil prices jump
TORONTO, April 17 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar moved closer on Thursday to a recent five-month high against its U.S. counterpart as oil prices rose and one day after the Bank of Canada paused its interest rate cutting campaign. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3845 per U.S. dollar, or 72.23 U.S. cents, after touching on Monday its strongest level since November 6 at 1.3827. For the week, the loonie was up 0.1%, which would be its seventh straight week of gains, the longest such stretch since May 2021. The currency has benefited from recent broad-based declines for the U.S. dollar, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. Concerns over the economic impact of tariffs and investors shifting investments outside the United States led to the greenback hitting a three-year low last week against a basket of major currencies. "The 200-day moving average comes in right above 1.40 so I think that's the top of the range (for USD-CAD)," Chandler said. "I think we might have to test that but I think the next big move is probably still lower." The price of oil , one of Canada's major exports, increased 3.5% to $64.63 a barrel after the U.S. imposed new sanctions to curb Iranian oil exports, elevating supply concerns. The held its benchmark rate at 2.75% on Wednesday, its first pause after seven consecutive cuts, and said the uncertainty around U.S. tariffs made it impossible to issue regular economic forecasts. Despite tensions between Canada and the United States, Canadians bought a record amount of American shares in February, as U.S. stock markets hit an all-time high. Canadian bond yields were mixed across a steeper curve, with the market set for an early close ahead of the Good Friday holiday. The 10-year was up 3.9 basis points at 3.118%, extending its rebound from an eight-day low at 3.073% that it touched during Wednesday's session.
Yahoo
27-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'Worst is over' for the Canadian dollar, says Desjardins
The Canadian dollar is expected to hold its ground against the greenback for the next three months, according to economists at Desjardins who are predicting 'the worst is over for the loonie.' Canada's currency (CADUSD=X) fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since 2003 last month, as U.S. President Donald Trump slapped punishing tariffs on Canadian goods. While the Canadian dollar has regained ground since then, it's currently down about six per cent since late September. However, Desjardins economists say the loonie's recent thrashing may be over. Chief economist Jimmy Jean and foreign exchange strategist Mirza Shaheryar Baig on Thursday updated their forecast for the currency pair, calling for USD-CAD to hold between $1.41 and $1.45 over the next three months. 'We are no longer forecasting USD-CAD to rise to $1.48 this year,' they wrote in a research note on Thursday. 'The worst is over for the loonie.' The economists point to rising risk of a U.S. recession, the 'relative cheapness' of the loonie helping Canadian exporters, and the U.S. dollar's diminishing role as a safe-haven currency and hedge against volatile markets. 'When stocks fell in July and August last year, and in February and March of this year, the dollar fell too. Context matters,' Jean and Baig wrote. 'With a made-in-America recession lurking, the U.S. dollar is unlikely to hedge risky assets like it did in the past.' That said, Desjardins notes the loonie could fall further if U.S. tariffs prove 'more durable and punitive,' or if its U.S. recession forecast is off. 'The post-pandemic recovery in the U.S. has proven incredibly resilient. Weakness in survey data has not translated to hard data yet. In short, the U.S. economy could defy predictions of recession yet again.' 'This prospect looks less likely in Canada, given its high trade exposure and the weakening of previous tailwinds like population growth,' the economists added. 'While we forecast a recession in Canada as well, the Bank of Canada front-loaded its cutting cycle and is likely to proceed more cautiously from here.' Last week, CIBC Capital Markets issued a list of TSX stocks it sees benefiting from recent Canada-U.S. currency moves. Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jefflagerquist. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android. Sign in to access your portfolio
Reuters
26-02-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Canadian dollar steadies near 2-week low as tariff deadline draws closer
TORONTO, Feb 26 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar steadied against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, holding near an earlier two-week low, as an approaching deadline for U.S. import tariffs led investors to grow more worried about the prospects of a trade war. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.4315 per U.S. dollar, or 69.86 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since February 10 at 1.4365. U.S. President Donald Trump has delayed implementation of a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada until March 4 to allow negotiations over steps to secure U.S. borders and halt the flow of the drug fentanyl. On Monday, Trump said the tariffs are "on time and on schedule," denting hopes of a further reprieve. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the U.S. "The conclusion from the first delay in tariff implementation was that Trump was only interested in gaining concessions from Canada, and that helped CAD settle into a period of calm," said Kyle Chapman, FX markets analyst at Ballinger & Co in London. "But with Trump's hard stance on the new March deadline, each day closer is seeing markets price that tariff risk premium back in, bit by bit." The Canadian dollar hit a 22-year low at 1.4793 on February 3, before the tariffs were delayed. "The market really bought into the narrative that Trump wouldn't go through with a trade war, and obviously that sets USD-CAD up to spike again if they have wrongly called his bluff." The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, fell as a surprise build in U.S. fuel stockpiles signalled demand weakness and a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continued to weigh on prices. U.S. crude oil futures were down 0.6% at $68.53 a barrel. Canadian government bond yields moved higher across the curve, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was up about half a basis point at 3% after earlier touching its lowest level since February 7 at 2.973%.
Yahoo
13-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canadian dollar hits 2-month high as U.S. bond yields fall
By Fergal Smith TORONTO (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar strengthened to a two-month high against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as U.S. bond yields declined and a key level of support for the American currency gave way. The loonie was trading 0.5% higher at 1.4235 per U.S. dollar, or 70.25 U.S. cents, after touching its strongest intraday level since December 13 at 1.4211. "Today's move lower in U.S. yields has weakened the USD across the board, thereby allowing CAD to post gains," said George Davis, chief technical strategist at RBC Capital Markets. "Prices broke below strong support at 1.4265 which has contained selloffs in USD-CAD for the past week or so, with the break lower triggering some stops on long positions." U.S. Treasury yields fell and the greenback posted losses against a basket of major currencies after components of the U.S. producer price report for January indicated that core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, is likely to be lower than previously thought when it is released later this month. Adding to support for the loonie, investors have dialed back expectations for a March interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada. The swaps market is pricing in a 44% chance, down from 85% before last week's move by U.S. President Donald Trump to delay a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada for a month. Trump said he plans to unveil reciprocal tariffs on Thursday afternoon but gave no details about his latest tariff plan, which could take aim at every country that charges duties on U.S. imports. Canadian government bond yields fell across a flatter curve, tracking the moves in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was down 7.4 basis points at 3.105%, after earlier touching its highest level since January 29 at 3.198%. Sign in to access your portfolio
