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Straits Times
19-06-2025
- Politics
- Straits Times
Trump, Iran and the spectre of Iraq: ‘We bought all the happy talk'
This handout grab taken from footage released by the US Defence Visual Information Distribution Service (DVIDS) on June 11 shows the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz. It is reportedly headed to the Middle East to boost the US presence as the Israel-Iran conflict rages on. PHOTO: AFP WASHINGTON – A little more than 22 years ago, Washington was on edge as a president stood on the precipice of ordering an invasion of Baghdad. The expectation was that it would be a quick, triumphant 'mission accomplished'. By the time the United States withdrew nearly nine years and more than 4,000 American deaths later, the Iraq War had become a historic lesson of miscalculation and unintended consequences. The spectre of Iraq now hangs over a deeply divided, anxious Washington. President Donald Trump, who campaigned against America's 'forever wars,' is pondering a swift deployment of US military might in Iran. This time, there are not some 200,000 US troops massed in the Middle East or anti-war demonstrations around the world. But the sense of dread and the unknown feels in many ways the same. 'So much of this is the same story told again,' said Vali R. Nasr, an Iranian American who is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. 'Once upon a time, we didn't know better, and we bought all the happy talk about Iraq. But every single assumption proved wrong.' There are many similarities. The Bush administration and its allies saw the invasion of Iraq as a 'cakewalk' and promised that US troops would be greeted as liberators. There were internal disputes over the intelligence that justified the war. A phalanx of neo-conservatives pushed hard for the chance to get rid of Saddam Hussein, the longtime dictator of Iraq. And America held its breath waiting for President George W. Bush to announce a final decision. Today, Trump allies argue that coming to the aid of Israel by dropping 30,000-pound 'bunker buster' bombs on Fordo, Iran's most fortified nuclear site, could be a one-off event that would transform the Middle East. There is a dispute over intelligence between Ms Tulsi Gabbard, Mr Trump's director of national intelligence, who said in March that Iran was not actively building a nuclear weapon, and Mr Trump, who retorted on June 17 that 'I don't care what she said'. Iran, he added, was in fact close to a nuclear weapon. Some of the same neo-conservatives who pushed for the war in Iraq are now pushing for war with Iran. 'You've got to go to war with the president you have,' said Mr William Kristol, a Never Trumper and editor at large of The Bulwark, who was a prominent advocate of war with Iraq. 'If you really think that Iran can't have nuclear weapons, we have a chance to try to finish the job.' And once again, the nation is waiting for a president to decide. 'I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I'm going to do,' Mr Trump said on June 18 when asked about his thinking on striking Iranian nuclear facilities. There are the familiar questions about an endgame. Mr Bush landed on the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, and under a 'Mission Accomplished' banner, he triumphantly declared combat operations in Iraq were at an end. But the country was in chaos as he spoke. Today, many American officials fear there will be a wider war if the United States bombs Fordo, including retaliatory attacks on US bases in the region by pro-Iran militias and strikes on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthis. Admiral William F. Fallon, who in 2007 and 2008 oversaw all US military operations in the Middle East as head of US Central Command, said on June 18 that he had concerns about Iran spiraling out of control after a US strike. 'What's the plan?' he said. 'What's the strategy? What's the desired end state? Iran not having a nuclear weapon is something few people would disagree with. But what is the relationship we would have with Iran in the bigger Middle East? We're just knee-jerking.' One person who sees little similarity between the run-up to Iraq and now is David H. Petraeus, the general who commanded US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and led the 101st Airborne Division in the initial invasion in Baghdad. 'This is clearly the potential run-up to military action, but it's not the invasion of a country,' he said on June 18. Mr Trump, he said, should deliver an ultimatum to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, and order him to agree to the complete dismantlement of his nuclear programme or face 'the complete destruction of your country and your regime and your people'. If the supreme leader rejects the ultimatum, Mr Petraeus said, 'that improves our legitimacy, and then reluctantly we blow them to smithereens.' Mr Nasr said a hopeful scenario after a strike would be the total destruction of Fordo and an Iran that comes to the table and agrees to a negotiated end to its nuclear programme. But if the Iranians respond militarily, as they say they will, Mr Nasr said that Mr Trump would be compelled to counter-attack, particularly if Americans are killed on US bases in the region. 'And then you don't know where it's going to stop, and Trump is really risking a repeat of the Iraq War,' he said. Iran is larger than Iraq, he noted, with a population of roughly 90 million and a far more capable, nationalistic military than the Iraqi army. Mr John Bolton, a neo-conservative who served as one of Mr Trump's first-term national security advisers, was a big advocate for the war in Iraq and is now a supporter of a US attack on Iran. 'Bomb Fordo and be done with it,' he said on June 18. 'I think this is long overdue.' He wrote a book about his time working for Mr Trump that enraged the president, and Mr Trump retaliated by revoking Mr Bolton's Secret Service protection, despite death threats that Mr Bolton faces from Iran. The two no longer speak, so Mr Bolton said he had no idea what Mr Trump would decide. He was not sure if Mr Trump knew himself. But in his experience, Mr Bolton said, Mr Trump was 'frantic and agitated' in national security crises. 'He talks to a lot of people, and he's looking for somebody who will say the magic words,' Mr Bolton said. 'He'll hear something, and he'll decide, 'That's right. That's what I believe.' Which lasts until he has the next conversation.' NYTIMES Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
The Citizen
16-06-2025
- Politics
- The Citizen
US warship reported heading toward Mideast as Iran, Israel fight
The movement of one of the world's largest warships came on day four of the escalating air war between Israel and Iran, This handout grab taken from footage released by the US Defence Visual Information Distribution Service (DVIDS) on June 11, 2025 shows the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) conducting flight operations in the South China Sea. Picture: Edward Jacome / DVIDS / AFP/ MASS COMMUNICATION SPECIALIST SEAMAN EDWARD JACOME The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz was leaving Southeast Asia on Monday after cancelling plans to dock in Vietnam, amid reports it is headed to the Middle East to boost the US presence as Israel and Iran do battle. At 13:45 GMT, the carrier was traveling through the Malacca Strait toward the Indian Ocean, according to Marine Traffic, a ship-tracking site. ALSO READ: UK moves warplanes to Middle East amid Iran crisis A Vietnamese government official confirmed to AFP that a planned reception aboard the USS Nimitz on June 20, as part of the ship's expected June 19-23 visit to Danang, had been cancelled. The official shared a letter from the US embassy announcing that the Defence Department was cancelling the event due to 'an emergent operational requirement.' The US Embassy in Hanoi declined to comment to AFP, as did a spokesman for the Nimitz. The movement of one of the world's largest warships came on day four of the escalating air war between Israel and Iran, with no end in sight despite international calls for de-escalation. Israel's strikes have so far killed at least 224 people, including top military commanders, nuclear scientists and civilians, according to Iranian authorities. In retaliation, Iran said it had struck Israel with a salvo of missiles and warned of 'effective, targeted and more devastating operations' to come. US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee on Monday said that Iran's missile barrage had lightly damaged a building used by the American embassy in Tel Aviv. © Agence France-Presse NOW READ: Israel vs Iran: Why you may soon have to pay more for petrol in South Africa
