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Asia Times
25-03-2025
- Business
- Asia Times
Jet lag: US getting smoked in China's sixth-gen fighter contrail
The crucial race for sixth-generation air dominance is on. But as the US unveils its F-47, China's J-36 may have already left it in the contrail. Last week, the US Department of the Air Force awarded Boeing the contract for the Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) phase of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) platform. This program heralds the creation of the F-47, the first sixth-generation fighter aircraft designed to cement US air superiority amid a contested global threat environment. Launched after a strategic pause in May 2024 to evaluate its alignment with defense needs, the F-47 integrates advanced stealth, sensor fusion and long-range strike capabilities, making it a cornerstone of the NGAD Family of Systems. Leveraging digital engineering and modular design, the F-47 ensures adaptability for emerging technologies. Officials highlight its unmatched speed, maneuverability, and payload. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized its role in reinforcing US military power and commitment to allies. US Air Force Chief of Staff General David Allvin declared the F-47 vital to maintaining dominance in aerial warfare for generations. The program also builds on experimental advancements achieved through five years of research with DARPA's X-planes. As the EMD phase begins, the contract funds the development of test aircraft and prepares for low-rate initial production, demonstrating a historic investment in innovation and defense. Operational deployment details remain forthcoming. While the US NGAD announcement may have brought much fanfare in defense circles, it may already be a belated gesture. In December 2024, China unveiled its J-36, developed by Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. With its tailless, trijet configuration and double-delta wing design, the J-36 represents a significant leap in aviation technology. Measuring approximately 23 meters in length and 19 meters in wingspan, it boasts a substantial wing area of 200 square meters. The aircraft emphasizes stealth with radar-absorbing materials, flexible skins, and no vertical tail surfaces, reducing radar signature. Its three engines, including a diverterless supersonic inlet, enable supercruise without afterburners, enhancing speed and efficiency. The J-36 features a 7.6-meter central weapon bay and side bays, supporting a considerable payload capacity, making it a formidable addition to China's airpower arsenal. Not to be outdone in terms of fanfare, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported this month that China unveiled what analysts believe to be its sixth-generation fighter program, marked by the appearance of a tailless aircraft resembling the J-36, developed by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group. This image, featured in a CCTV video commemorating the J-10 jet's 27th anniversary, suggests an official declaration of the program's progress. The release coincides strategically with the US announcement of Boeing's contract to produce the F-47, the centerpiece of the US NGAD program. To stress the point, SCMP says that China's J-36 was reportedly spotted on a test flight near Chengdu a few days before the US NGAD announcement. In contrast to the US NGAD, which hasn't even entered the prototype phase, Newsweek notes that the J-36 has been spotted with a flight data probe on its nose, indicating the type is undergoing initial testing and is still far from serial production. In an article for the Indo-Pacific Studies Center, Eric Liu and Brandon Tran note that such test flights pressure the US and its allies regarding China's military modernization. They also note that such progress makes it unclear if the latter is still a 'pacing threat' or has already evolved into something more formidable. As to why China may have beaten the US in sixth-generation fighter development, Abraham Abrams mentions in a January 2025 article for the Aviation Geek Club that China's rapid development pace and decision-making, as shown by the J-20's swift progress from demonstrator flight to service, contrasts with the prolonged development of US fighters like the F-35. Abrams notes that the US NGAD program faces challenges, including high costs and delays and digital assembly technologies that fail to meet expectations. In contrast, he says China unveiled two sixth-generation prototypes in 2024, showcasing its industrial and technological advancements and underscoring its ability to outpace the US in this critical domain. Sixth-generation aircraft have long been touted as revolutionary in air power circles. In an August 2021 article for the Joint Air Power Competence Center (JAPCC), Raffaele Rossi mentions that the type is designed to surpass fifth-generation capabilities by integrating advanced stealth, hypersonic speeds and AI for enhanced situational awareness and decision-making. Rossi says sixth-generation aircraft may feature optionally manned configurations, allowing for piloted, remote-controlled or autonomous missions. He mentions they incorporate advanced digital engineering, high-capacity networking and data fusion for real-time battlefield command and control. He says enhanced human-system integration includes virtual cockpits with AI-enhanced awareness. Moreover, Rossi states that variable-cycle engines provide efficient cruising and high thrust, while advanced stealth reduces radar and infrared signatures. He mentions directed-energy weapons and suborbital flight capabilities as potential features, emphasizing adaptability to future threats and ensuring dominance in the air, space, and cyber domains. The decision to press on with NGAD development despite ballooning costs reflects the program's urgency. In a Defense One article this month, Major General Joseph Kunkel mentioned that there is no alternative to achieve air superiority in today's highly-contested environment. General Kenneth Wilsbach added in the same article that the US cannot sit idly by while China advances its sixth-generation fighter program. That assessment may have spared the NGAD from Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) scrutiny, unlike the F-35, which was not spared. Musk criticized the F-35 fighter program for its delays, cost overruns and technical flaws, labeling it a 'flop' while citing unresolved software issues, cybersecurity vulnerabilities and maintenance inefficiencies. Musk's critique also highlighted the F-35's inability to adapt to evolving threats, contrasting it with the potential of drones to replace manned fighters in modern warfare. Justin Bronk mentions in an article this month for the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) that China's unveiling of its J-36, which demonstrated superior stealth and long-range capabilities alongside its extensive missile arsenals threatening forward bases and refueling tankers near its coastline, makes the NGAD's unrefueled combat radius exceeding 1,800 kilometers vital. Bronk says this capability enables operations from safer, defensible bases while reducing reliance on vulnerable tankers. Additionally, he says the NGAD's stealth and weapon-carrying capacity address challenges posed by Chinese electronic warfare and long-range kill chains, ensuring US air superiority in contested environments. Yet as the F-47 prepares for takeoff on the drawing board, China's J-36 may already be streaking through the sky—signaling that the US is no longer setting the pace but struggling to keep up in the race for sixth-generation dominance.
Asia Times
07-02-2025
- Politics
- Asia Times
US military on an adapt-or-perish techno-precipice
The US Air Force's 2050 vision is more than a declaration—it's a stark warning that US military dominance is no longer assured. In December 2024, the US Department of the Air Force (DAF) released a report envisioning a transformed military force by 2050, emphasizing space, artificial intelligence (AI), autonomy and long-range precision strikes to counter China's growing military challenge. The report forecasts significant geopolitical, technological and strategic shifts, predicting China's emergence as a global military competitor while Russia remains a hostile but economically constrained power. The DAF envisions a future battlefield shaped by AI-driven decision-making, autonomous weapons and space-based warfare, with operations increasingly contested in cyberspace and the electromagnetic spectrum. To adapt, the US Air Force plans to shift from large, crewed platforms to a networked force integrating uncrewed systems and stand-off weapons. Simultaneously, the US Space Force will enhance surveillance, missile defense and combat operations to counter adversarial space threats. The report stresses the urgency of continuous technological innovation to maintain strategic deterrence, particularly as China expands its military capabilities and nuclear arsenal. With traditional military advantages eroding, the DAF calls for decisive investment in new warfighting concepts to sustain US air and space dominance. Integrating AI-driven battle management with hypersonic weapons aims to enhance US military operations but challenges remain regarding autonomy and system reliability. The DAF report envisions AI-driven battle management as the backbone of future combat. As Matthew White argues in a December 2024 Wild Blue Yonder article, AI-enhanced systems will revolutionize battlefield awareness by integrating intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) data, cutting decision-making cycles and automating targeting processes. However, as a SOFREP analysis warns, these systems remain error-prone and require continued human oversight to avoid catastrophic failures. The push toward hypersonic weapons, as outlined in a January 2025 report by the US Congressional Research Service (CRS), complements this vision by ensuring that US long-range precision strikes can bypass sophisticated air defenses and neutralize threats before they can respond, reinforcing deterrence in contested regions. Transitioning to a techno-centric force presents significant challenges, particularly in autonomy, AI and the logistics required to sustain distributed air operations. A February 2024 Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) occasional paper by Paul O'Neill and others examines the resilience of uncrewed systems in high-intensity conflicts, emphasizing their vulnerability to electronic warfare, which could result in high attrition rates. While autonomy offers some mitigation, alternative navigation methods and target recognition remain limited, affecting engagement effectiveness. The Agile Combat Employment (ACE) doctrine represents a fundamental shift in US airpower strategy, dispersing forces across a network of smaller, scalable bases to enhance survivability against long-range missile threats. This approach, supported by robust command and control (C2) networks, aims to ensure operational flexibility even in contested environments. However, Michael Blaser cautions in a July 2024 Proceedings article that the ACE doctrine assumes adversaries—particularly China—cannot disrupt multiple US outposts simultaneously. With AI-enhanced targeting and machine learning algorithms, China is refining its ability to detect, track and neutralize dispersed US forces, forcing a reassessment of how ACE can be synchronized with long-range fires and resilient logistics. Sustaining operations and deterrence requires countering advances in electronic warfare, counter-space capabilities, and doctrinal misalignment among US and allied forces. The ACE doctrine reflects a growing shift in US airpower—from centralized air bases to a dispersed, resilient network. As Miranda Priebe and colleagues note in a July 2019 RAND report, dispersing air assets complicates enemy targeting and enhances survivability. However, the logistical burden of this model, particularly for short-range fighters, poses a vulnerability. Space capabilities must be integrated with ground-based and space-based infrastructure to sustain distributed operations. The August 2023 Comprehensive Strategy for the Space Force emphasizes the importance of resilient command, control and communications in contested environments. These efforts align with the 2022 US National Defense Strategy, which incorporates cyber, space and non-kinetic measures to deter adversaries like China and Russia, strengthening deterrence through multinational coalitions and raising the costs of hostile actions. While the US prioritizes space dominance, China and Russia actively develop counter-space weapons to challenge American superiority. According to an April 2024 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report, China is integrating jamming, directed-energy weapons and cyber warfare to disrupt US and allied space assets, while Russia's focus on electronic warfare and anti-satellite (ASAT) systems like the Peresvet laser underscores its emphasis on space denial. These developments signal a broader shift: space is no longer a sanctuary but an increasingly contested domain where adversaries aim to degrade US surveillance, communications and missile defense networks in a future conflict. Beyond operational challenges, institutional shortcomings in integrated deterrence further complicate strategic stability. In a May 2024 publication by the US Army Command and General Staff College, David Bell argues that strategic empathy—the ability to understand the perspectives of allies and partners—is underdeveloped, leading to misaligned expectations and inefficient resource allocation. Similarly, Phillip Pattee highlights the absence of clearly prioritized national security interests, which creates operational uncertainty and complicates synchronization across agencies and allied forces. But the US must strategically adapt its military and nuclear deterrence posture to counter China's rising military power and maintain stability in a multipolar world. The 2020 Elements of the China Challenge report identifies China as the foremost threat to US military superiority, citing the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) ambitions for regional dominance and a new global order. China continues to develop asymmetric capabilities in cyber, space and missile warfare, designed to surpass US technological advantages while deterring intervention in regional conflicts. At the same time, maintaining a technological edge is central to US strategy. In a September 2024 Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) article, Mohammed Soliman and Vincent Carchidi note that Washington seeks to sustain military and technological superiority through export controls, domestic investments and strategic alliances. This strategy aims to restrict China's access to key technologies, strengthen supply chain resilience and foster a global tech coalition among allies. The US nuclear deterrence posture is evolving to address the rise of multiple nuclear-armed adversaries, requiring a more flexible and adaptive approach. An October 2023 US International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) report emphasizes the need for tailored deterrence, ensuring that deterrence strategies remain credible against China's expanding nuclear arsenal and Russia's modernization of its strategic forces. Simultaneously, the US must navigate arms control measures and risk reduction strategies, even as China and Russia resist formal engagement. The future of US military dominance hinges on technology, policy and leadership. As George Rachman notes in a December 2024 Financial Times (FT) article, the second Trump administration introduces an element of unpredictability into this equation. Combined with intensifying great power competition, the coming years could determine whether the US remains the dominant military force or cedes strategic ground to its adversaries.
