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Miami Herald
08-08-2025
- Climate
- Miami Herald
How strong will that Gulf hurricane get? Hidden hot water, river flow may be key
Hurricane forecasting has improved dramatically over recent decades, but there's one major phenomenon that can still throw a wrench into even the most accurate forecasts — rapid intensification. That's what scientists call it when a tropical storm or hurricane's sustained wind speed increases at least 35 mph within 24 hours, and it happens for nearly all Category 4 and 5 storms. Researchers have some idea of the ingredients necessary for a storm to quickly strengthen like that, but it's a less precise guess than many other elements of hurricane forecasting. However, new research from the University of South Florida continues to chip away at the mysteries surrounding rapid intensification, especially in the Gulf of Mexico, by helping identify previously hidden pockets of hot water that could help feed storms. One study, published in February in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found that a plume of hot freshwater, floating on top of the denser, slightly cooler saltwater in the Gulf, could have been key to Hurricane Idalia's rapid strengthening in 2023. Researchers found that shortly before Hurricane Idalia jumped from a Category 1 hurricane to Category 4, it passed over this hot puddle of freshwater, and they determined that this provided the burgeoning hurricane a speed boost. Chuanmin Hu, a professor of oceanography at the USF College of Marine Science and an author of the study, said the discovery was a coincidence, a matter of the right devices at the right place at the right time. They initially set out to study this plume of freshwater, an annual occurrence in the Gulf fed from various freshwater rivers, including the Mississippi, over red tide concerns. But the team's slow-moving research gliders turned out to be perfectly placed to catch the incoming hurricane. And they showed, Hu said, that the deep layer of warm freshwater served as a power source for Idalia. This freshwater plume is a normal thing to see in the Gulf, but the research suggests that in 2023, it was deeper and larger than anything in recent history, potentially because of an intense amount of rain that fell on the Southwest in the months previous. 'Even right now, there's a plume following almost the same path, but the extent is much smaller and the duration may be shorter,' Hu said. 'This extensive long lasting plume [in 2023] was a record in the past 20 years.' READ MORE: What happens when hurricanes rapidly intensify? Researchers can easily track the outlines of the annual plume via satellite, but without the gliders, which can sample up to 200 meters below the surface, it's hard to know how deep the plume is. The gliders are funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Hu suggested that their continued use could provide forecasters another tool for predicting rapid intensification. 'These are really, really important measurements that help hurricane studies, and I hope they will continue in the future,' Hu said. Another USF-led study examining the same region of the Gulf also found a connection between unique ocean circulation and rapid intensification. The paper, published in December in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, suggests that in 2022, when Hurricane Ian powered up over waters near the Florida coast, it found waters warmer than usual — both at the sea surface and deeper below. Yonggang Liu, an associate professor at the University of South Florida and lead author of the study, said that water was hotter than usual because the region hadn't experienced a 'flushing' current like it normally does, so the waters were hotter and more stagnant than usual. Liu said his team analyzed 27 years of water temperature history from a series of buoys placed in the region and found that the deeper waters were warmer than normal when Ian plowed through. Usually, the sea surface is warmest and waters get cooler the deeper you go. That means that when Hurricane Ian moved over the Gulf, it churned up ever hotter water, fueling the storm even further, potentially giving it the boost it needed to jump from Category 3 to Category 5 as it closed in on Florida. 'The important part of those subsurface water temperatures is you can't detect it from satellites,' Liu said. 'That should be improved. The buoys are essential in this case.' Liu's team made a publicly available dashboard to display the data from those buoys. This month, it shows good news, he said. Deeper waters are running only slightly above average, a much lower figure than researchers saw with Hurricane Ian. That could be because this year, unlike in 2022, the Gulf Loop Current grew wide enough to hit a 'pressure point' that Liu's team pinpointed on the west Florida shelf. When the current grows broad enough to hit that spot, the paper found, it flushes cooler water up and down the west coast of Florida, cutting off a potential food source for would-be storms. 'The entire shelf will be replaced with cooler water from offshore origins,' Liu said. 'That kind of circulation was not seen during the last four years in the summer, only briefly, not persistently. This year is different.' Liu believes that expanding the buoy network up and down the coast of Florida, or even in geographically similar areas like North Carolina's coast, could provide a helpful tool for forecasters trying to find previously hidden pockets of hot water that could fuel storms passing through the area. 'More observations and monitoring of the subsurface is critical,' he said.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Remember sargassum? Florida could see record amounts this summer
Stinky, unsightly and potentially harmful – there are a litany of adjectives used to describe the naturally-occurring type of macroalgae called Sargassum, and none of them are positive. Sargassum has always been around, but it hit the widespread public consciousness in 2023 when blobs of the smelly seaweed piled up on Florida beaches and islands across the Caribbean Sea. The University of South Florida College of Marine Science estimated the sargassum blob to be around 13 million tons – a record amount – in March 2023. USF researchers are now sounding off about a new sargassum record broken in April. USF College of Marine Science Professor Dr. Chuanmin Hu told FOX 13 on Monday that the latest data indicated sargassum levels were over 200% higher than they were last year. Should you be worried about sargassum at your next visit to the beach? Probably not. Here's what to know about the latest sargassum bloom. Sargassum is essentially just brown macroalgae, which is more commonly known to us as seaweed. There are hundreds of different species of sargassum, according to USF. The two most dominant are called sargassum fluitans and sargassum natans. The smelly seaweed accumulates in a specific area of the North Atlantic Ocean where four currents converge into a sort of ocean gyre. The region is called the Sargasso Sea. However, because sargassum gathers here to form a monstrous, 5,000-mile-wide blob, the area is also called the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt. Whether it's the smell or simply the foreign nature of it, sargassum has developed a reputation for being toxic or dangerous. USF says that it's safe for most people. Sargassum is not toxic unless it is rotten, in which case it can release hydrogen sulfide and ammonia. USF says that even in this case, it would primarily affect people with underlying respiratory issues. Most people can safely swim around sargassum and ignore small amounts on beaches. Sargassum has been around for so long that Christopher Columbus wrote about it on his voyage to America. Sargassum seaweed has washed ashore beaches before, but something changed in the past two decades. Since 2011, large swathes of sargassum began migrating into the Caribbean Sea nearly every summer. Climate variability and other unnatural and natural processes are scientist's best guess at what has caused the sudden surge of sargassum. Sargassum typically starts washing up on beaches in March and persists through the summer. Florida doesn't usually start seeing any until mid-to-late May. USF's latest sargassum outlook showed that amounts in April were 200% higher than last year and 150% higher than the previous historical record. It's also 40% higher than the all-time high set in June 2022, making 2025 a new record year. Like in previous years, you can expect to see sargassum float into the west Caribbean Sea before moving into the Gulf through the Yucatan. This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Florida likely to see record sargassum as April breaks all-time record
Yahoo
06-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
USF researchers see record-high amounts of Sargassum seaweed expected to wash ashore Florida's east coast
The Brief USF researchers said Floridians should see a lot more sargassum at the beach, especially on the east coast. The latest research shows levels in April were more than 200% higher than they were last year at this time. The belt of Sargassum seaweed stretches more than 5,000 miles between the Atlantic Coast of Africa and the Gulf. TAMPA, Fla. - It's smelly. It bogs down our beaches with seaweed and it could impact your health. USF researchers said Floridians should see a lot more sargassum at the beach, especially on the east coast. The latest research shows levels in April were more than 200% higher than they were last year at this time. That's according to USF College of Marine Science Professor Dr. Chuanmin Hu, who said that'll mean more seaweed to dispose of. READ:Underwater volcano off Oregon's coast inching closer to eruption, scientists say But, he said there is hope, because there are actually some businesses out there that have found ways to repurpose the seaweed instead. Big picture view A satellite image taken last week shows ocean water in dark blue and the abundance of Sargassum seaweed in green, yellow and red with the warm colors indicating more. "In the past month of April 2025, we had a new record, so the amount is just too much. It's much higher than the historical record," Hu said. Follow FOX 13 on YouTube Dig deeper The belt of Sargassum seaweed stretches more than 5,000 miles between the Atlantic Coast of Africa and the Gulf. Massive amounts can create a foul stench and emit toxic gas, and breathing that in can create respiratory issues for some. As Hu explained, large amounts usually never reach Pinellas beaches, instead washing ashore on the Florida east coast. Some amounts of Sargassum have already been found in the Florida Keys. "Why exactly we have all of a sudden this much sargassum? It's still being investigated, but our speculation is the ocean is warmer than usual in April and March. Also, the wind is stronger than previous years. That will stir up the ocean water," Hu said. Why you should care As Hu explained, municipalities usually dispose of it in landfills. However, more has been done to work out ways to repurpose it. A Mexican company uses 100 mg of sargassum to make each sole for shoes they make out of recycled plastic bottles. Going forward, he said, as the amounts of Sargassum increase, more research will need to be done on how to repurpose it. MORE: UF researchers: How urban green spaces can be designed to benefit humans, wildlife "They need to develop a better strategy to adapt to this new phenomenon. It's not going to stop in future years. It's only going to get worse," Hu said. What's next Hu said amounts washing ashore on the east coast will continue to increase over the next few months, peaking in the summer months. Those amounts will start to decline beginning in August and September. The Source The information in this story was gathered by FOX 13's Jordan Bowen. WATCH FOX 13 NEWS: STAY CONNECTED WITH FOX 13 TAMPA: Download the FOX Local app for your smart TV Download FOX Local mobile app:Apple |Android Download the FOX 13 News app for breaking news alerts, latest headlines Download the SkyTower Radar app Sign up for FOX 13's daily newsletter
The Independent
25-03-2025
- Science
- The Independent
Researchers may finally be able to forecast dangerous red algae blooms
Scientists might soon be able to forecast when the see is gonna turn red - and don't worry, it has nothing to do with the apocalypse. For the first time, researchers identified nearly a dozen viruses associated with red tides off Florida's coast that are harmful and costly. Also known as harmful algae blooms, red tides — the massive growth of algae that is tied to multiple organisms — are driven by wind and water currents, nutrients that run into the water, extreme weather events and unusually high temperatures. They can kill birds, fish and other sea creatures and lead to health problems in humans, including shortness of breath and even death. Blooms can force health authorities to close beaches. 'We know that viruses play an important role in the dynamics of harmful algal blooms, but we haven't known what viruses might be associated with Karenia brevis blooms,' Jean Lim, a postdoctoral researcher at the USF College of Marine Science, said in a statement. 'Now that we've identified several viruses in red tide blooms, we can work to determine which viruses might have an influence on these events.' Identifying the viruses can help forecast when the blooms occur and better understand what causes them to stop. Red tide is a type of naturally occurring algae bloom that impacts the Sunshine State nearly every year: generally cropping up in the late summer or early fall, according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, which was a partner of the research. Lasting usually for between three and five months, they can result in losses estimated at millions of dollars and affect hundreds of square miles. A swath stretching more than 200 miles impacted areas from Tampa Bay to Key West last month, according to WUSF, and Argentina saw beaches turn a shocking crimson at around the same time. Karenia brevis is the organism that causes red tide. During red tide events, the researchers collected Karenia brevis bloom samples to analyze in a lab. They used a method called viral metagenomics, a process that determines the make-up of the sample's DNA, to find the viruses. They don't yet know how the viruses they found influence red tide blooms, but researchers say that because viruses target certain organisms, specific viruses may only infect Karenia brevis. The researchers are working to determine whether the viruses have an influence on that organism or others in red tide blooms. Finding a potential link between how blooms occur and the presence of viruses could help to predict these events in the future. 'For example, an increase in the number of viruses found in a sample might suggest that a red tide bloom is about to begin, or that it is going to end,' Lim, who is the lead author of the research published in the American Society for Microbiology's journal mSphere, explained.
Yahoo
23-03-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
The sea is turning red! Researchers make breakthrough discovery that could help forecast dangerous algae blooms
Scientists might soon be able to forecast when the see is gonna turn red - and don't worry, it has nothing to do with the apocalypse. For the first time, researchers identified nearly a dozen viruses associated with red tides off Florida's coast that are harmful and costly. Also known as harmful algae blooms, red tides — the massive growth of algae that is tied to multiple organisms — are driven by wind and water currents, nutrients that run into the water, extreme weather events and unusually high temperatures. They can kill birds, fish and other sea creatures and lead to health problems in humans, including shortness of breath and even death. Blooms can force health authorities to close beaches. 'We know that viruses play an important role in the dynamics of harmful algal blooms, but we haven't known what viruses might be associated with Karenia brevis blooms,' Jean Lim, a postdoctoral researcher at the USF College of Marine Science, said in a statement. 'Now that we've identified several viruses in red tide blooms, we can work to determine which viruses might have an influence on these events.' Identifying the viruses can help forecast when the blooms occur and better understand what causes them to stop. Red tide is a type of naturally occurring algae bloom that impacts the Sunshine State nearly every year: generally cropping up in the late summer or early fall, according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, which was a partner of the research. Lasting usually for between three and five months, they can result in losses estimated at millions of dollars and affect hundreds of square miles. A swath stretching more than 200 miles impacted areas from Tampa Bay to Key West last month, according to WUSF, and Argentina saw beaches turn a shocking crimson at around the same time. Karenia brevis is the organism that causes red tide. During red tide events, the researchers collected Karenia brevis bloom samples to analyze in a lab. They used a method called viral metagenomics, a process that determines the make-up of the sample's DNA, to find the viruses. They don't yet know how the viruses they found influence red tide blooms, but researchers say that because viruses target certain organisms, specific viruses may only infect Karenia brevis. The researchers are working to determine whether the viruses have an influence on that organism or others in red tide blooms. Finding a potential link between how blooms occur and the presence of viruses could help to predict these events in the future. 'For example, an increase in the number of viruses found in a sample might suggest that a red tide bloom is about to begin, or that it is going to end,' Lim, who is the lead author of the research published in the American Society for Microbiology's journal mSphere, explained.
