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Daily Maverick
15-07-2025
- Automotive
- Daily Maverick
Socioeconomic crisis looms as US tariffs hit Eastern Cape's vital automotive industry hard
The Automotive Business Council says it is hopeful that a proposal for 40,000 tariff-free vehicles for export to the US will find favour, as the impact of tariffs in their current form will be catastrophic for both the manufacturing industry and the Eastern Cape. 'This is not just a trade issue, it's a socioeconomic crisis in the making,' CEO of the Automotive Business Council (Naamsa) Mikel Mabasa said on Tuesday. The organisation, like many others in the Eastern Cape, is grappling to come to terms with the devastating impact of export tariffs imposed by the United States. Mabasa said the export tariffs threatened thousands of jobs in the automotive sector, disrupted hard-won industrial capabilities, and risked devastating communities such as East London, where the automotive sector formed the economic heartbeat of the town. He said Naamsa was, however, encouraged by South Africa's early proposals for a quota of 40,000 duty-free vehicle units per annum, 'which would allow us to retain our footprint in this key market'. He said that if the country could not retain export markets such as the US, 'we risk turning vibrant industrial hubs into ghost towns'. Ripple effects through the value chain He said the ripple effects of production loss due to disappearing export markets would be felt throughout the automotive value chain – from component manufacturers to logistics providers, and across the thousands of workers and families who depended on the sector for their livelihoods. 'Export diversification and finding new markets is not something that can be achieved overnight. Our global competitors are already redirecting their exports into markets we traditionally serve. This intensifies the pressure on our original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), who must now absorb rising costs, reduce production, and reconsider future investments,' he said. Urgent diplomacy needed 'We have also taken note of President Cyril Ramaphosa's formal response on the same day, which confirmed South Africa's diplomatic and strategic approach to this matter. He said South Africa's automotive sector was particularly vulnerable to the 25% sectoral tariff imposed under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which specifically targeted automotive exports. This escalation in trade tensions poses a serious threat to one of South Africa's most globally integrated and export-oriented industries. He said the United States had consistently been South Africa's second-largest trading partner and key export destination for South African manufactured vehicles. Agoa at risk – billions in trade and thousands of vehicles 'Since the inception of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), the automotive industry has benefited from substantial two-way trade and investment. In 2024, the auto sector accounted for 64% of all Agoa trade between South Africa and the US, generating R28.6-billion in export revenue, with 24,681 vehicles exported to the US under Agoa,' Mabasa said. He said the effect of just the anticipation of the high export tariffs, however, had been devastating to the industry and had an immediate effect on trade performance. He said that even before the formal effect of the tariffs, vehicle exports to the US dropped by 73% in the first four months of 2025, followed by a further decline of 80% and 85% in April and May, respectively. 'This represents a risk of a direct loss of vehicle and component export volumes, and annual export earnings, which would be difficult to recover in the short term,' he said. OEMs under pressure But the news is even worse, he said, as tariff disruptions placed major pressure on [OEMs], who had made long-standing industrial commitments to South Africa and invested significantly in local manufacturing, skills development and export infrastructure. The SA automotive industry contributes 22.6% of the country's total domestic manufacturing output and directly supports 110,000 formal sector jobs. Mabasa said Naamsa welcomed the SA government's continued diplomatic engagement with the US, including discussions held on the sidelines of the US-Africa Summit in Luanda on 23 June 2025, and the submission of SA's Framework Deal on 20 May 2025 to address the concerns raised by the US government. 'We urge both governments to accelerate negotiations toward a balanced, rules-based trade agreement. We are encouraged by early proposals for a quota of 40,000 duty-free vehicle units per annum, which would allow us to retain our footprint in this key market. It's vital that we use this opportunity to preserve the business case for continued investment', he said. Mabasa, however, emphasised the need to prepare for a more uncertain and competitive global landscape. Behind every statistic are people and communities 'Naamsa is equally concerned about the livelihood impact of these developments. Behind every tariff statistic are real people – auto workers, supply chain technicians, logistics operators and their families. Nowhere is this more visible than in East London, a community that has grown and thrived on the back of automotive exports. 'The erosion of this trade threatens to unravel decades of socioeconomic progress. We urge all parties involved in the diplomatic negotiations to recognise the strategic and social importance of safeguarding mutually beneficial trade frameworks like Agoa, and to avoid short-term decisions that carry long-term consequences for vulnerable regions,' Mabasa said. CEO of the Nelson Mandela Bay Business Chamber Denise van Huyssteen, said it was clear that the US trade tariffs, planned for implementation on 1 August, would have a disproportionate impact on the Eastern Cape economy given its high reliance on the automotive sector. 'The initial most vulnerable automotive and components manufacturers will be those who directly export products to the United States. The tariffs will put them in a very uncompetitive position, making it difficult to continue to do trade with the US, which could lead to export orders drying up. This, in turn, will have a knock-on impact on direct and indirect suppliers located in East London and Nelson Mandela Bay, and the overall supporting ecosystem around these manufacturers, who may or may not be able to withstand the loss in volume. 'Additionally, as the volumes, especially of [OEMs], potentially decline, economies of scale are diminished, potentially putting some components manufacturers in a position where they are unable to continue a viable supply to their other OEM customers located elsewhere in the country,' she said. Competitiveness crisis She said the tariff structure also meant that manufacturers who exported products to other parts of the world may now be competing with other countries that had significant cost advantages over South Africa, as they faced lower tariffs or could absorb the tariffs. 'Essentially, the global trade order has been upended, and this is likely to affect global manufacturing footprints and where the best locations will be to produce products in the future,' Van Huyssteen said. She said that switching markets was not a quick solution as these measures took time to implement, and neither would 'replace' current OEMs with new ones. 'On this score, and in order to retain employment, it is vital that any potential incoming OEM investors commit to utilising local components for their manufacturing operations,' she said. Unemployment warning for Nelson Mandela Bay She said the chamber also remained deeply concerned about the devastating impact these 'tariff wars' might have on Nelson Mandela Bay's economy and the thousands of jobs supported directly and indirectly through the automotive industry and its supply chain. 'This, in turn, will add to the already unacceptably high unemployment and poverty levels in Nelson Mandela Bay and the Eastern Cape. It must be remembered that Nelson Mandela Bay is home to the greatest number of automotive component suppliers in the country. Furthermore, 41% of the country's automotive manufacturing employment is based in the Bay,' she said. Call for government urgency 'Given how small SA's economy is, the country's response should not be to retaliate, but rather to look internally and consider deploying incentives to support local manufacturers, rather than to keep others out by way of tariffs. This should also incorporate policy support and assistance in establishing new markets for SA-produced goods.' She called for urgency on the side of the government. 'The government needs to move fast and take action in addressing barriers such as excessive red tape and complex policies associated with doing business in the country. Absolute urgency is required to improve the country's competitiveness versus other emerging locations, which have, over the years, become much more attractive investment destinations. 'These even include some countries on this continent who have surpassed South Africa in some key performance areas. Priority focus must be placed on ensuring that the basic enablers are in place, such as well-maintained infrastructure, efficient logistics and the delivery of basic services at a local municipal level, to help improve the competitiveness of local manufacturers and to sustain their continued operations in the Bay.' MEC warns Mercedes-Benz may exit Speaking at the Finance Committee in the Council of Provinces last week, Eastern Cape MEC for Finance Mlungisi Mvoko said they had held discussions with the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (DTIC), as the matter significantly affected the Eastern Cape. He highlighted that Mercedes-Benz, currently exporting 90% of the vehicles it manufactures in East London to the United States, was facing the most risk. Mvoko warned that the company might consider withdrawing from South Africa due to the tariff changes. Mvoko said that if Mercedes-Benz were to leave, it would have devastating consequences for the East London Special Economic Zone (SEZ), where many companies existed solely to supply the vehicle maker. He also made it clear that thousands of families in East London and Qonce were reliant on Mercedes-Benz operations. DM
The Citizen
15-07-2025
- Automotive
- The Citizen
Devastating impact of US tariffs on SA automotive sector even before implementation
South Africa's automotive sector already reflects the devastating impact of the US tariffs and a socio-economic crisis in the making. The announcement and anticipation of the US tariffs already had a devastating and immediate impact on trade performance, even before the tariffs were implemented. Vehicle exports to the US dropped by 73% in the first quarter of 2025, followed by a further decline of 80% in April and 85% in May. Mikel Mabasa, CEO of the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa), the Automotive Business Council, says this represents a risk of a direct loss of vehicle and component export volumes and annual export earnings, which would be difficult to recover in the short term. And it is not just the export volumes. Mabasa says this is not just a trade issue, but a socio-economic crisis in the making, as the US tariffs directly threaten thousands of jobs in the automotive sector, disrupt hard-won industrial capabilities, and risk devastating communities, such as East London, where the auto sector forms the economic heartbeat of the town. 'If we cannot retain export markets like the US, we risk turning vibrant industrial hubs into ghost towns.' Mabasa says in a press statement that Naamsa noted the official communication from US President Donald Trump to the South African government last week to notify the country of the unilateral 30% reciprocal trade tariff, as well as President Cyril Ramaphosa's formal response that confirmed South Africa's diplomatic and strategic approach to this matter. ALSO READ: How will the 25% US import tariff affect SA's auto industry? Automotive sector particularly vulnerable to 25% sectoral tariff 'South Africa's automotive sector is particularly vulnerable to the 25% sectoral tariff imposed under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which specifically targets automotive exports. This escalation in trade tensions poses a serious threat to one of South Africa's most globally integrated and export-oriented industries.' He says the US has consistently been South Africa's second-largest trading partner and key export destination for vehicles manufactured in South Africa. Since the inception of the African Growth and Opportunity Act [Agoa], the automotive industry has benefited from substantial two-way trade and investment. In 2024, the auto sector accounted for 64% of all Agoa trade between South Africa and the US, generating R28.6 billion in export revenue, with 24 681 vehicles exported to the US under Agoa. The impact is also not on the sector itself, but also on original equipment manufacturers, value chains, and local economy. Mabasa says these tariff disruptions place major pressure on original equipment manufacturers [OEMs], who have long-standing industrial commitments with South Africa and invested significantly in local manufacturing, skills development and export infrastructure. 'The ripple effects of production loss due to disappearing export markets will be felt throughout the entire automotive value chain, from component manufacturers to logistics providers and across the thousands of workers and families who depend on the sector for their livelihoods. ALSO READ: BMW SA 'not exposed' to current US tariff uncertainty Finding new export partners will not happen overnight 'Export diversification and finding new markets is not something that can be achieved overnight. Our global competitors are already redirecting their exports into markets we traditionally serve. This intensifies the pressure on our OEMs, who must now absorb rising costs, reduce production and reconsider future investments.' He points out that the automotive sector is a cornerstone of the economy, contributing an impressive 22.6% to total domestic manufacturing output and directly supporting over 110 000 formal sector jobs. 'The tariffs – and the broader uncertainty in US-Africa trade relations – strike at the heart of South Africa's industrialisation agenda and threaten future investment in high-value manufacturing. They also undermine the significant progress made under Agoa to deepen US-Africa trade.' Mabasa emphasises that Naamsa welcomes government's continued diplomatic engagement with the US, including discussions held on the sidelines of the US-Africa Summit in Luanda in June and the submission of South Africa's Framework Deal in May to address the concerns raised by the US government. 'We urge both governments to accelerate negotiations toward a balanced, rules-based trade agreement. We are encouraged by early proposals for a quota of 40 000 duty-free vehicle units per year, which would allow us to retain our footprint in this key market. It is vital that we use this opportunity to preserve the business case for continued investment.' He says Naamsa continues to engage closely with government counterparts, providing data and strategic insights to support trade negotiations, and is also exploring additional export markets beyond the US urgently. ALSO READ: US tariff of 30% on SA exports: where to now? Time to prepare for more uncertain and competitive landscape in automotive sector Although Mabasa expresses optimism about diplomacy, he emphasises the need to prepare for a more uncertain and competitive global landscape. The US market remains crucial for South Africa, not only for trade flows but also for industrial stability and investor confidence. In addition, Mabasa points out that Naamsa is equally concerned about the impact of these developments on people's livelihoods. 'Behind every tariff statistic are real people – autoworkers, supply chain technicians, logistics operators and their families. Nowhere is this more visible than in East London, a community that has grown and thrived on the back of automotive exports. The erosion of this trade threatens to unravel decades of socio-economic progress. 'We urge all parties involved in the diplomatic negotiations to recognise the strategic and social importance of safeguarding mutually beneficial trade frameworks like Agoa and to avoid short-term decisions that carry long-term consequences for vulnerable regions. 'Naamsa remains deeply committed to South Africa's economic growth and industrial development, and we are optimistic that a constructive path forward will be reached through continued engagement and collaboration.'
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Business Standard
04-07-2025
- Automotive
- Business Standard
India proposes retaliatory duties against US's auto tariffs at WTO
India on Friday proposed retaliatory duties at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) against the tariffs imposed by the United States (US) on automobiles and certain auto parts, even as both nations are close to finalising an interim trade agreement. 'The proposed suspension of concessions or other obligations would take the form of an increase in tariffs on selected products originating in the United States. Without prejudice to the effective exercise of its right to suspend substantially equivalent obligations referred to in Article 8.2, AoS, India reserves its right to suspend concessions or other obligations after the expiration of thirty days from the date of this notification,' according to a WTO notification. India further stated that the safeguard measures will impact $2.895 billion worth of Indian-origin auto product exports annually, with duties totalling $723.75 million. Therefore, India plans to suspend trade concessions of equivalent value in response. Last month, India submitted a formal notification to the WTO under the Agreement on Safeguards, informing the multilateral trade body of its intention to suspend concessions under the agreement in response to tariffs imposed by the US on steel, aluminium, and their derivative products. India's position is that the US tariffs—imposed under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act of 1962—amount to safeguard measures under WTO rules, entitling India to withdraw equivalent concessions. Currently, all eyes are on the announcement of the interim trade deal between both nations, as the 90-day pause on the US's plan to impose country-specific reciprocal tariffs ends on 9 July. Both sides are aiming to finalise an 'early tranche' or the first part of a broader bilateral trade agreement (BTA), which was announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump in February.
Mint
11-06-2025
- Automotive
- Mint
US rejects India again at WTO: Response to auto tariffs plea mirrors rejection over steel, aluminium dispute
New Delhi: In a double blow to India's trade diplomacy, the US has rejected New Delhi's second attempt within days to initiate consultations at the World Trade Organization—this time over steep tariffs on automobiles and auto parts. Washington has turned down India's notice for WTO consultations on the US's 25% tariff on auto components, asserting that the auto duties were imposed on national security grounds and so are not subject to multilateral trade rules, as per a WTO paper. This comes just days after the US brushed aside India's long-pending case on steel and aluminium duties. As with that dispute, New Delhi reserves its right to impose retaliatory duties on US automobile tariffs, an official with India's commerce ministry said, requesting anonymity. Although the US's 25% tariff on auto components is expected to have a minimal impact on India's automobile sector, the latest development underscores Washington's take-it-or-leave-it approach in its negotiations with New Delhi for a landmark bilateral trade agreement. India is looking to finalize the first tranche of the trade deal before US President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on the US's reciprocal tariff ends on 8 July, after which additional tariffs on Indian exports to the US could kick in in the absence of a trade agreement. But simultaneously, India has been ramping up efforts at the WTO to assert its rights. Washington's latest rejection of New Delhi's case at the WTO mirrors its response to India's challenge against the US's steel and aluminium tariffs. Indian automobile exporters, particularly in the auto components and electric vehicle segments, fear restricted access to the US market just as they expand capacity to serve global supply chains. The commerce ministry didn't immediately reply to Mint's queries. The jurisdiction loophole In response to India's request for WTO consultations on 3 June, the US, in its submission to the WTO's Committee on Safeguards on 10 June, firmly stated that its 25% ad valorem tariffs on imported passenger vehicles, light trucks, and auto components were issued under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act of 1962. (Ad valorem tariffs are proportional to the estimated value of the products involved.) The US added that as these tariffs fall under the essential security exception in Article XXI of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1994 and are not safeguard measures, consultations under WTO's Article 12.3 of the Safeguards Agreement do not apply. 'These actions are not safeguard measures," the US stated, adding that India's request 'has no basis in the Agreement on Safeguards". 'Nonetheless, we are open to discuss this or any other issue with India. Any discussions regarding the tariffs would not be under the Agreement on Safeguards and would be without prejudice to our view that the tariffs are not safeguard measures," the US added while rejecting India's notice. Also read | India puts big pharma concessions on table as US trade deal nears finish line India, however, has argued that these duties operate as de facto safeguard measures and require WTO oversight. The tariff on auto components, which took effect on 3 May, followed a US announcement on 26 March and applies for an unlimited duration. New Delhi's position is that such trade-restrictive measures should not bypass the multilateral framework merely by invoking national security. Another Indian government official acknowledged the US position but said the impact on market access and predictability is undeniable. 'Whether it's called a safeguard or a security action, the consequence is the same—our exporters face a barrier," this official said, also speaking on condition of anonymity. A matter of principle Indian government officials argue that the dispute with the US over the auto tariffs has less to do with trade volume and is more about the principle of non-discrimination and the risks of unchecked protectionism. Trade analysts added that the latest episodes involving India and the US also highlight the WTO's limited role in disputes involving national security exceptions, and the growing trend among major economies to invoke such provisions to shield strategic industries. India's passenger car exports to the US in 2024 stood at just $8.9 million, according to commerce ministry data. This was a fraction of India's total car exports that amounted to $6.98 billion last year, suggesting that the US's new tariffs would have little to no effect on India's expanding car export industry, said Ajay Srivastava, co-founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a policy think tank. Also read | Washington pushes for a fast-track route for its meat and seafood under India-US bilateral trade agreement However, Srivastava cautioned that if India decides to reduce tariffs on passenger car imports to placate the US, it would be counterproductive. Srivastava drew reference to Australia's experience in the late 1980s, when its automobile manufacturing industry collapsed after the country slashed its auto import tariff from 45% to 5%. Last month, a US trade court declared Trump's reciprocal tariffs as illegal, prompting calls from experts in India for New Delhi to reconsider its approach to the ongoing trade negotiations with Washington. The impact of the US's auto tariffs on India's truck exports is also expected to be marginal. India exported $12.5 million worth of trucks to the US in 2024, accounting for only 0.89% of its global truck exports. India's auto parts sector, however, stands out as the most exposed category to the recent US tariffs, with India exporting $2.2 billion worth of components to the US in 2024, amounting to 29.1% of India's global auto parts exports, as per commerce ministry data.
Time of India
03-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
FIEO worried over US tariff hikes on steel, aluminium
The Federation of Indian Export Organisations ( FIEO ) Saturday raised concerns about potential disruption to India's steel and aluminium exports to the US after President Donald Trump's announcement of a plan to double import tariffs on steel and aluminium to 50 per cent from 25 per cent. They particularly fear that the exports of value-added and finished steel products and auto-components, stainless steel pipes, and structural steel components could be hurt. This potential increase comes under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act of 1962, a law that allows the president to impose tariffs or other trade restrictions if imports are deemed a threat to national security. "These products are part of India's growing engineering exports, and higher duties could erode our price competitiveness in the American market," said SC Ralhan , president, FIEO. India exported approximately $6.2 billion worth of steel and finished steel products to the US in FY25 including a wide range of engineered and fabricated steel components and about $0.86 billion of aluminium and its products. The US is among the top destinations for Indian steel manufacturers, who have been gradually increasing market share through high-quality production and competitive pricing. Exporters said that though the decision stems from domestic policy considerations in the US, such sharp increases in tariffs send discouraging signals to global trade and manufacturing supply chains. India and the US are negotiating a Bilateral Trade Agreement and exporters said that the move will complicate the talks. "It's unfortunate that while BTA negotiations are going on, such unilateral tariff increases should be done. It only makes the work of the negotiators much more difficult and complicated. This will definitely impact the engineering exports, which are about $5 billion under this head," Pankaj Chadha, chairman EEPC India. Chadha added that since the UK has been given exemption from Section 232, the same exemption should also be given with TRQ restrictions to India. "We urge the government to take up the issue at the bilateral level to ensure that Indian exporters are not unfairly 25 per cent additional duty will be a huge burden, which is difficult to be absorbed by the exporter/importer," Ralhan said. On March 8, 2018, the US promulgated safeguard measures on certain steel and aluminium articles by imposing 25 per cent and 10 per cent ad valorem tariffs respectively on such products with effect from March 23, 2018. On February 10, 2025, it revised the safeguard measures on imports of steel and aluminium articles, effective from March 12. New Delhi said that the US failed to notify the WTO Committee about a decision to apply safeguard measures and as an affected member with significant export interest, it has requested consultations with Washington and proposed retaliation against the measure.
