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The Independent
4 days ago
- Politics
- The Independent
FACT FOCUS: Trump claims cashless bail increases crime, but data is inconclusive
As his administration faces mounting pressure to release Justice Department files related the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking case, President Donald Trump is highlighting a different criminal justice issue — cashless bail. He suggested in a Truth Social post this week that eliminating cash bail as a condition of pretrial release from jail has led to rising crime in U.S. cities that have enacted these reforms. However, studies have shown no clear link. Here's a closer look at the facts. TRUMP: 'Crime in American Cities started to significantly rise when they went to CASHLESS BAIL. The WORST criminals are flooding our streets and endangering even our great law enforcement officers. It is a complete disaster, and must be ended, IMMEDIATELY!' THE FACTS: Data has not determined the impact of cashless bail on crime rates. But experts say it is incorrect to claim that there is an adverse connection. 'I don't know of any valid studies corroborating the President's claim and would love to know what the Administration offers in support,' said Kellen Funk, a professor at Columbia Law School who studies pretrial procedure and bail bonding. 'In my professional judgment I'd call the claim demonstrably false and inflammatory.' Jeff Clayton, executive director of the American Bail Coalition, the main lobbying arm of the cash bail industry, also pointed to a lack of evidence. 'Studies are inconclusive in terms of whether bail reforms have had an impact on overall crime numbers,' he said. 'This is due to pretrial crime being a small subset of overall crime. It is also difficult to categorize reforms as being 'cashless' or not, i.e., policies where preventative detention is introduced as an alternative to being held on bail.' Different jurisdictions, different laws In 2023, Illinois became the first state to completely eliminate cash bail when the state Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the law abolishing it. The move was part of an expansive criminal justice overhaul adopted in 2021 known as the SAFE-T Act. Under the change, a judge decides whether to release the defendant prior to their trial, weighing factors such as their criminal charges, if they could pose any danger to others and if they are considered a flight risk. Loyola University of Chicago's Center for Criminal Justice published a 2024 report on Illinois' new cashless bail policy, one year after it went into effect. It acknowledges that there is not yet enough data to know what impact the law has had on crime, but that crime in Illinois did not increase after its implementation. Violent and property crime declined in some counties. A number of other jurisdictions, including New Jersey, New Mexico and Washington, D.C., have nearly eliminated cash bail or limited its use. Many include exceptions for high-level crimes. Proponents of eliminating cash bail describe it as a penalty on poverty, suggesting that the wealthy can pay their way out of jail to await trial while those with fewer financial resources have to sit it out behind bars. Critics have argued that bail is a time-honored way to ensure defendants released from jail show up for court proceedings. They warn that violent criminals will be released pending trial, giving them license to commit other crimes. A lack of consensus Studies have shown mixed results regarding the impact of cashless bail on crime. Many focus on the recidivism of individual defendants rather than overall crime rates. A 2024 report published by the Brennan Center for Justice saw 'no statistically significant relationship' between bail reform and crime rates. It looked at crime rate data from 2015 through 2021 for 33 cities across the U.S., 22 of which had instituted some type of bail reform. Researchers used a statistical method to determine if crime rates had diverged in those with reforms and those without. Ames Grawert, the report's co-author and senior counsel in the Brennan Center's Justice Program, said this conclusion "holds true for trends in crime overall or specifically violent crime.' Similarly, a 2023 paper published in the American Economic Journal found no evidence that cash bail helps ensure defendants will show up in court or prevents crime among those who are released while awaiting trial. The paper evaluated the impact of a 2018 policy instituted by the Philadelphia's district attorney that instructed prosecutors not to set bail for certain offenses. A 2019 court decree in Harris County, Texas, requires most people charged with a misdemeanor to be released without bail while awaiting trial. The latest report from the monitoring team responsible for tracking the impact of this decision, released in 2024, notes that the number of people arrested for misdemeanors has declined by more than 15% since 2015. The number of those rearrested within one year has similarly declined, with rearrest rates remaining stable in recent years. Asked what data Trump was using to support his claim, the White House pointed to a 2022 report from the district attorney's office in Yolo County, California, that looked at how a temporary cashless bail system implemented across the state to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks in courts and jails impacted recidivism. It found that out of 595 individuals released between April 2020 and May 2021 under this system, 70.6% were arrested again after they were released. A little more than half were rearrested more than once. A more recent paper, published in February by the IZA Institute of Labor Economics, also explored the effects of California's decision to suspend most bail during the COVID-19 pandemic. It reports that implementation of this policy 'caused notable increases in both the likelihood and number of rearrests within 30 days.' However, a return to cash bail did not impact the number of rearrests for any type of offense. The paper acknowledges that other factors, such as societal disruption from the pandemic, could have contributed to the initial increase. Many contributing factors It is difficult to pinpoint specific explanations for why crime rises and falls. The American Bail Coalition's Clayton noted that other policies that have had a negative impact on crime, implemented concurrently with bail reforms, make it 'difficult to isolate or elevate one or more causes over the others.' Paul Heaton, a law professor at the University of Pennsylvania who studies criminal justice interventions, had a similar outlook. 'Certainly there are some policy levers that people look at — the size of the police force and certain policies around sentencing,' he said. 'But there's a lot of variation in crime that I think even criminologists don't necessarily fully understand.'
Forbes
30-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Mortgage Debt: Hidden U.S. Estate Tax Trap For Foreign Investors
Foreign investors are often very surprised to learn that a leveraged U.S. real estate investment ... More using recourse debt will often not shield the foreign investor from U.S. estate tax exposure. This article explores the mortgage debt surprise, why it matters, and how foreign investors can navigate it. getty Foreign investment in U.S. real estate is quite significant with investors being drawn because of the market's stability, robust and reliable legal protections, and the potential for capital growth. U.S. real estate is a core wealth-building strategy for nonresident alien individuals (those who are not U.S. citizens and are not domiciled in the U.S.). Many NRA investors are caught off-guard by various aspects of the U.S. estate tax which is imposed at death on the fair market value of U.S. situs assets, such as American real estate. The maximum estate tax rate of 40% can certainly take a big chunk out of the investment. With experienced U.S. tax advice, foreigners can carefully plan their investment strategies to minimize (if not eliminate) this tax. A lesser-known aspect of the U.S. estate tax regime involves the limited deductibility of recourse mortgage debt on U.S. real property. A leveraged real estate investment using recourse debt will often not shield the foreign investor from U.S. estate tax exposure. This article explores the mortgage debt surprise, why it matters, and how foreign investors can navigate it. When an NRA passes away owning U.S. real estate, which is a U.S.-situs asset, the value of that property is included in their U.S. taxable estate, subject to estate tax rates up to 40%. Many investors assume they can deduct the full amount of any mortgage tied to the property from its fair market value thus reducing the taxable estate. This would make sense since the net equity represents the NRA's economic interest in the property. The U.S. tax rules, however, apply a different rule for recourse versus nonrecourse debt often creating a costly surprise to the estate. By way of overview, when a mortgage debt is 'recourse', it allows the lender to pursue other assets of the borrower (or his estate) if there is any shortfall if the property's sale will not cover the amount loaned. Thus, in the case of a decedent, the estate is held liable for the debt. Nonrecourse mortgage debt limits the lender's recovery to the property itself; the creditor has 'no recourse' to the estate's other assets. Under the U.S. estate tax rules, nonrecourse debt is fully deductible to offset the value of the U.S. real property. The lender can seize only the real property and no other assets and the estate isn't liable for any shortfall. Permitting the full mortgage loan to offset the value of the property reflects the estate's true economic interest, as the lender has no claim on other assets. In the case of recourse debt, however, only a portion of recourse mortgage debt is deductible by the estate. The deductible amount is proportional to the ratio of the U.S.-situs assets' value to the value of the decedent's worldwide assets. Here is an example. Assume an NRA has a worldwide estate valued at $10 million. This includes $2 million of U.S. real property which is encumbered by a $1 million recourse mortgage. The U.S. property represents 20% of the worldwide estate ($2M/$10M), so only 20% of the mortgage ($200,000) can be deducted. The taxable value in the estate of $1.8 million can result in an approximate estate tax of $720,000 (assuming no exemptions or credits). The distinction between recourse and nonrecourse debt catches out many investors who are relying on leverage to maximize returns and are expecting the full debt to offset their U.S. estate tax exposure. In this example, the result will come as a surprise since the investor's expectation would be that the U.S. property would have a $1 million taxable value after deducting the full mortgage. Why The U.S. Estate Tax Limitation for Recourse Debt? The limitation on deducting recourse mortgage debt for U.S. estate tax purposes is a mechanism to prevent the estate being able to offset U.S. estate tax using a global debt obligation even when the estate has other non-U.S. assets to repay the loan. Recourse debt renders the estate liable for repayment, potentially using worldwide assets. The tax law restricts the mortgage deduction in such a case to prevent an over-reduction of the U.S. taxable estate. The deduction is made proportional to the U.S.-situs assets' share of the worldwide estate precisely because the estate's liability for the debt is not limited to U.S. assets. This ensures the U.S. taxes the estate's net U.S. property value while accounting for global obligations, unlike nonrecourse debt, which is fully deductible because it is tied only to the equity in the U.S. property. The pro-rata formula is found in IRC Section 2106(a)(1) and its relevant Treasury Regulations and Treasury Regulation Section 20.2053-7. Assume an NRA owns U.S. real estate having a value of $5 million and that it is subject to a $3 million recourse mortgage. The NRA has foreign assets worth $15 million. Without the recourse debt limitation, the $3M recourse debt would be fully deductible, and the NRA's U.S. taxable estate would be just $2M. This would permit the estate to offset U.S. estate tax using a global debt obligation, even though the estate has $15M of foreign assets with which to repay the loan. To prevent overly reducing the U.S. taxable estate, the pro-rate formula is used. U.S. Real Property - The Surprise Recourse Debt Limitation Really Matters The limited deduction for recourse debt can dramatically increase tax liabilities, particularly given the low $60,000 estate tax exemption for NRAs (compared to $13.99 million for U.S. citizens and domiciliaries in 2025). Even modest U.S. real estate holdings can trigger significant taxes. In addition, calculating the proportional deduction requires disclosing the fair market value of the decedent's worldwide assets on IRS Form 706-NA. Such disclosure raises serious privacy concerns for investors who do not wish to reveal their global holdings. This disclosure requirement, combined with the unexpected tax burden, makes the recourse mortgage debt rule a double blow for unprepared investors. Strategies Can Mitigate The Mortgage Debt Problem There are various strategies foreign investors can adopt, depending on the facts and the investor's priorities. A qualified tax professional can assist, balancing favorable tax outcomes with practical considerations. For example, ownership structures can avoid U.S. estate tax but involve more complexity, costs and tax compliance; the investor can opt for nonrecourse debt which will mean the full debt amount can reduce the taxable estate but likely means higher interest rates or stricter terms will apply, since the lender bears greater risk. Life insurance can be explored, as well as the possible use of estate tax treaties. Every strategy will involve trade-offs, making professional advice indispensable. Proactive planning can help the U.S. real estate investment remain lucrative without the harsh surprise of unexpected estate tax liability. Stay on top of tax matters around the globe. Reach me at vljeker@ Visit my US tax blog NO ATTORNEY-CLIENT RELATIONSHIP OR LEGAL ADVICE This communication is for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to constitute tax advice or a recommended course of action. Professional tax advice should be sought as the information here is not intended to be, and should not be, relied upon by the reader in making a decision.
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Roku (ROKU) Surges 10.4%: Is This an Indication of Further Gains?
Roku (ROKU) shares rallied 10.4% in the last trading session to close at $82.17. This move can be attributable to notable volume with a higher number of shares being traded than in a typical session. This compares to the stock's 4.3% gain over the past four weeks. The uptick in share price came after the companu announced partnership with Amazon Ads to launch a new integration that could reshape how advertisers reach Connected TV (CTV) audiences. Through Amazon DSP, advertisers can now access an estimated 80 million U.S. CTV households within the Roku and Fire TV ecosystems, gaining unmatched reach through authenticated, logged-in viewers. This collaboration brings together two of the largest CTV platforms, expanding advertiser access to a vast and highly addressable audience across connected results have been promising. Advertisers saw 40% more unique viewers with the same budget and reduced ad repetition by nearly 30%. The integration also allows smarter targeting and better measurement by recognizing users across devices. For Roku, this partnership with Amazon could strengthen its ad business and drive higher platform monetization. This video streaming company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.15 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +37.5%. Revenues are expected to be $1.07 billion, up 10.6% from the year-ago quarter. While earnings and revenue growth expectations are important in evaluating the potential strength in a stock, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements. For Roku, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. And a stock's price usually doesn't keep moving higher in the absence of any trend in earnings estimate revisions. So, make sure to keep an eye on ROKU going forward to see if this recent jump can turn into more strength down the road. The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> Roku belongs to the Zacks Broadcast Radio and Television industry. Another stock from the same industry, fuboTV Inc. (FUBO), closed the last trading session 2.8% higher at $3.26. Over the past month, FUBO has returned -1.3%. For fuboTV, the consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming report has changed -33.3% over the past month to $0.00. This represents a change of +100% from what the company reported a year ago. fuboTV currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Roku, Inc. (ROKU) : Free Stock Analysis Report Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd (RDY) : Free Stock Analysis Report Visa Inc. (V) : Free Stock Analysis Report ArcelorMittal (MT) : Free Stock Analysis Report MSC Industrial Direct Company, Inc. (MSM) : Free Stock Analysis Report fuboTV Inc. (FUBO) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Sign in to access your portfolio
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The Independent
13-06-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Mapped: the 40 cities where anti-ICE protests have erupted across the US
Los Angeles remains the epicenter of unrest after protests erupted in the wake of a string of raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents on Friday. Now, demonstrations have been sparked across the country, with dozens reported in at least 23 states since Friday. The first protests followed after crowds attempted to thwart ICE agents' detention efforts in downtown LA last week. On Saturday, President Donald Trump caused fresh outrage after announcing his plan to deploy the National Guard before later mobilizing the U.S. Marines. Dozens of demonstrations have erupted around the country, both in solidarity with the LA protesters and as part of a broader protest against the Trump administration's immigration crackdown. After a week of unrest, The Independent has identified anti-ICE protests in at least 40 U.S. cities since Friday. So far, they have been spread across 23 states, with the highest concentrations in Texas, California, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. There have been at least 565 arrests so far at various protests, mainly in LA, with as many as 30 people arrested Wednesday in Spokane, Washington, following a significant police response. Other marches also took place on Thursday across the U.S. from Anchorage to Chicago. The nationwide demonstrations have varied in size, with some cities reporting dozens or hundreds of protesters. Meanwhile, other areas have seen thousands of protesters take to the streets, with the National Guard called in to two cities and hundreds of arrests made nationwide. Around 1,900 'No Kings' rallies across all 50 states will coincide with a multi-million dollar parade for the U.S. Army's 250th anniversary in D.C. on Saturday, which critics have billed as an extravagant birthday bash for Trump. Chicago, Illinois Thousands of protesters marched through downtown Chicago on Tuesday. Demonstrations were largely peaceful, but Fox News reported that some protesters vandalized police vehicles with the network adding that there had been some physical altercations. Seventeen arrests were made on Wednesday as thousands flooded the streets at Federal Plaza. Four were charged with felonies, including aggravated battery of a police officer. Multiple vehicles were tagged with anti-ICE graffiti. On Thursday, hundreds of demonstrators displaying signs and chanting through the streets with one group at Michigan Avenue chanting: 'Donald Trump, you're a clown. Immigrants will take you down.' Denver, Colorado Hundreds gathered outside the Colorado Capitol in Denver on Tuesday, according to CBS News, for largely peaceful protests. Reports say that protesters spilled into the streets, but no widespread unrest was reported. Later that evening, Denver Police reportedly used smoke and pepper balls to disperse the crowd. Eighteen arrests were made Tuesday, police said. In nearby Aurora, home to Colorado's only ICE detention center, an additional 150 people joined the protest, according to local news reports. New York City Around 20 anti-ICE protesters were also led away by police in New York, following demonstrations in Manhattan on Monday. The following morning, two dozen people were arrested during a sit-in protest at Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue. Clashes broke out between police and protesters near an ICE office on Tuesday, which saw demonstrators thrown to the ground as police tried to handcuff them. Others lobbed water bottles at officers. The NYPD prepared for further anti-ICE protests Thursday after demonstrators marched from Foley Square before moving down Broadway, and later up to the Manhattan Detention Center. Atlanta, Georgia A rally began on Monday outside the ICE office in Atlanta, with protesters calling for the end of immigration raids and the release of the detained union leader, David Huerta, in California. Hundreds of protesters gathered Tuesday night along Buford Highway in Brookhaven. Many carried signs and chanted in English and Spanish during the march, denouncing the Trump administration's stringent deportation efforts. Officials say that they arrested six people after protesters failed to leave after the rally's designated cut-off point and clashed with law enforcement officials. Spokane, Washington After a protest Wednesday afternoon outside an ICE office in Spokane, Mayor Lisa Brown imposed a curfew in the city's downtown area running from 9.30 p.m. until 5 a.m. Thursday. More than 30 protesters were arrested, and officers deployed 'pepper balls' on the crowd, according to Spokane Police Chief Kevin Hall. Brown told reporters that the curfew is meant to 'protect public safety,' adding that the vast majority of protesters were peaceful What is happening in Los Angeles? The protests in LA are expected to enter their seventh day on Friday. More than 700 Marines awaited deployment in Los Angeles on Friday, marking the latest escalation of Trump's response to the immigration raid protests. Around 400 people involved in protests have been arrested by the LAPD alone, according to CNN. Karen Bass, the mayor of Los Angeles, enforced a curfew for a third night in a portion of downtown LA in response to looting and vandalism. The curfew is currently in place from 8.00 p.m. Thursday to 06:00 a.m. Friday local time, which is expected to continue for several more days. Trump has maintained temporary control of the National Guard in Los Angeles, an appeals court has ruled, in a major blow to California Governor Gavin Newsom.
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The Independent
12-06-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Mapped: the 37 cities where anti-ICE protests have erupted across the US
Los Angeles remains the epicenter of unrest after protests erupted in the wake of a string of raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents on Friday. Now, demonstrations have been sparked across the country, with dozens reported in at least 21 states since Friday. The first protests followed after crowds attempted to thwart ICE agents' detention efforts in downtown LA last week. The following morning, President Donald Trump caused fresh outrage after deploying the National Guard before eventually mobilizing the U.S. Marines on Monday evening. Dozens of demonstrations have erupted around the country, both in solidarity with the LA protesters and as a form of broader protest against the Trump administration's immigration crackdown. The Independent has identified anti-ICE protests in at least 37 U.S. cities since Friday, with the majority occurring on Monday through Wednesday. On Thursday, cities across the nation braced for more upheaval. So far, they have been spread across 21 states, with the highest concentrations in California, Texas, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. There have been at least 565 arrests so far at various protests, mainly in LA, with 30 people arrested last night in Spokane, Washington, following a significant police response. Further afield, marches also took place on Wednesday in Eugene, Raleigh, St. Louis, San Antonio, Indianapolis, and Seattle. The nationwide demonstrations have varied in size, with some cities reporting dozens or hundreds of protesters. Meanwhile, other areas have seen thousands of protesters take to the streets, with the National Guard called in to two cities and hundreds of arrests made nationwide. Spokane, Washington After a protest Wednesday afternoon outside an ICE office in Spokane, Mayor Lisa Brown imposed a curfew in the city's downtown area running from 9.30 p.m. until 5 a.m. Thursday. More than 30 protesters were arrested, and officers deployed 'pepper balls' on the crowd, according to Spokane Police Chief Kevin Hall. Brown told reporters that the curfew is meant to 'protect public safety,' adding that the vast majority of protesters were peaceful Chicago, Illinois Thousands of protesters marched through downtown Chicago on Tuesday. Demonstrations were largely peaceful, but Fox News reported that some protesters vandalized police vehicles and were involved in altercations. On Tuesday night, a car ploughed through crowds of protesters in the downtown area. The driver allegedly ignored police attempts to stop the car, according to the network. There have been no reported injuries. Seventeen arrests were made on Wednesday as thousands flooded the streets at Federal Plaza. Four were charged with felonies, including aggravated battery of a police officer. Multiple vehicles were tagged with anti-ICE graffiti. Denver, Colorado Hundreds gathered outside the Colorado Capitol in Denver on Tuesday, according to CBS News, for largely peaceful protests. Reports say that protesters spilled into the streets, but no widespread unrest was reported. Later that evening, Denver Police reportedly used smoke and pepper balls to disperse the crowd. Eighteen arrests were made Tuesday, police said. In nearby Aurora, home to Colorado's only ICE detention center, an additional 150 people joined the protest, according to local news reports. New York City Around 20 anti-ICE protesters were also led away by police in New York, following demonstrations in Manhattan on Monday. The following morning, two dozen people were arrested during a sit-in protest at Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue. Clashes broke out between police and protesters near an ICE office on Tuesday, which saw demonstrators thrown to the ground as police tried to handcuff them. Others lobbed water bottles at officers. The NYPD prepared for further anti-ICE protests Thursday after demonstrators marched from Foley Square before moving down Broadway, and later up to the Manhattan Detention Center. Atlanta, Georgia A rally began on Monday outside the ICE office in Atlanta, with protesters calling for the end of immigration raids and the release of the detained union leader, David Huerta, in California. Hundreds of protesters gathered Tuesday night along Buford Highway in Brookhaven. Many carried signs and chanted in English and Spanish during the march, denouncing the Trump administration's stringent deportation efforts. Officials say that they arrested six people after protesters failed to leave after the rally's designated cut-off point and clashed with law enforcement officials. The protests in LA are expected to enter their seventh day on Thursday. More than 700 Marines awaited deployment in Los Angeles on Thursday, marking the latest escalation of Trump's response to the immigration raid protests. Around 400 people involved in protests have been arrested by the LAPD alone, according to CNN. Karen Bass, the mayor of Los Angeles, enforced a curfew for a second night in a portion of downtown LA in response to looting and vandalism, with the Los Angeles Police Department stating that it made 'mass arrests' after the restriction was imposed. The curfew is currently in place from 8.00 p.m. Wednesday to 06:00 a.m. Thursday local time. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a Senate hearing Wednesday that military personnel could be sent to other cities if law enforcement were threatened as protests flare up across the nation.
