4 days ago
Navy games and a Modi-Marcos summit: this is why India and the Philippines are drawing closer
It's been a week of high drama in the South China Sea.
First two Chinese patrol vessels collided while chasing a Philippines-flagged boat – a crash that was caught on camera. Then a US warship caused consternation in Beijing by sailing too close to a disputed area.
The Chinese navy would have been on high alert a week earlier too, when ships from the Philippine navy – which has conducted "maritime cooperative activities" with foreign navies since late 2023 as part of its push to counter China's expansive claims in the area – set sail for two days with another regional heavyweight: India.
Philippine and Indian Navies steam in formation during their first joint naval sail and exercises at the South China Sea. ( Armed Forces of the Philippines via AP )
It was the first time the countries had conducted a combined operation.
Prakash Gopal, a former Indian navy officer, now a lecturer of maritime security at the University of Wollongong, said the operation was a natural extension of India's "Act East" policy.
"India has regular naval exercises with other ASEAN countries such as Singapore and Indonesia, and it was only a matter of time before it began engaging with the Philippines," he said.
Meanwhile, Manila "will continue to seek as many friends and allies as it can muster in its dispute with China''.
"Having procured arms from India, these exercises are only a natural progression of the relationship,'' Dr Gopal said.
"While this will increase the temperature in the South China Sea, it will also encourage the formation of a loose coalition of smaller powers against Chinese hegemony in the region. I wouldn't be surprised if India-Philippines naval exercises become periodic fixtures."
Philippine Navy personnel aboard BRP Jose Rizal (FF150) simulate torpedo launcher operations South China Sea during operations with the Indian Navy. ( Armed Forces of the Philippines via AP )
As the navies got to know each other, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr left Manila for New Delhi for a five-day state visit, the first in almost 20 years.
"This relationship is going to receive a major upgrade," Mr Marcos said.
So it did. The day after his arrival, the two countries formally elevated their ties to a Strategic Partnership. They also signed 13 memoranda and agreements spanning defence, maritime cooperation, trade, digital technologies, tourism, space cooperation, culture and science.
Kim Heriot-Darragh, a research fellow at the Australia India Institute, said India sees the Philippines "as a country which, like India, is at the forefront of global responses to China's coercive behaviour".
"Southeast Asia is at the heart of global politics, and of a region that presents the world with much economic opportunity - but also potential flashpoints. New Delhi sees Manila as an important partner to engage in that context."
Manila's fears of war
This was brought into sharp focus when Mr Marcos told reporters at an event in New Delhi that his country would inevitably be drawn "kicking and screaming" into any war over Taiwan due to its proximity to the self-ruled island and the presence of large numbers of Filipino workers there.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry was quick to respond, saying that "geographic location" and a "large volume of Filipinos"' in Taiwan "should not be used as pretexts to interfere in the internal and sovereign affairs of other countries" and urged the Philippines to "refrain from playing fire on issues bearing on China's core interests."
China, Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia each have competing claims over the South China Sea. ( ABC News: Jarrod Fankhauser )
Rahul Mishra, from the Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, said the exercise and Mr Marcos's visit signal a strategic evolution in India's posture toward the Indo‑Pacific.
"Barring a few exceptions, India had previously avoided direct mentions of the South China Sea," Professor Mishra writes in 360info.
"For India, the South China Sea issue is no longer a peripheral concern, but is integral to its maritime and economic security as well as its regional leadership claims.
"The partnership with the Philippines is a tangible expression of India's Indo‑Pacific ambitions."
He said that for Manila, its pursuit of deeper ties with India represents a deliberate move to reduce dependence on the US.
It's not just security, either.
Mr Marcos and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also announced visa-free entry for Indian tourists and free e-visas for Filipino nationals, alongside plans for direct Delhi–Manila flights. They also have to launch a preferential trade negotiation, as bilateral trade remains modest ($US3.3 billion in 2024), but has room for growth.
Philippine Navy personnel aboard BRP Jose Rizal (FF150) simulate torpedo launcher operations South China Sea during combined operations with the Indian Navy. ( Armed Forces of the Philippines via AP )
Mr Marcos flew home with $US446 million in investments and said more were on the way. Speaking to Filipino media, he said he was very satisfied with the deals secured during the trip, even wondering why the Philippines had not sought to deepen ties with India sooner.
As for India, Dr Gopal said while New Delhi's relations with the United States undergo significant stress under the Trump administration, it will look to consolidate support within the global south.
"I suspect we might see a renewed outreach from India towards other Indian Ocean and ASEAN states," he said.
ABC/AP
