Latest news with #UkrainianDroneStrikes
CNN
13-06-2025
- Politics
- CNN
As Ukraine batters Russia with daring assaults, firebrand pro-Kremlin pundits rattle nuclear sabers
How will Moscow respond to the stunning Ukrainian drone strikes on its fleet of strategic aircraft? So far, the Kremlin has stayed tight-lipped, saying only that it is waiting for the results of a formal investigation into the attacks, which struck air bases thousands of miles from the Ukraine border. But fury is being openly vented across the Russia media, with pro-Kremlin pundits and bloggers seething with calls for retribution, even nuclear retaliation. 'This is not just a pretext but a reason to launch nuclear strikes on Ukraine,' the prominent 'Two Majors' bloggers said on their popular Telegram channel, which has over a million subscribers. 'After the mushroom cloud you can think about who lied, made mistakes and so on,' they added, referring to the inevitable Kremlin search for scapegoats for the fiasco. At least one prominent Russian political analyst, Sergei Markov, urged caution, warning in a social media post that using nuclear weapons would 'lead to real political isolation'. But popular blogger Alexander Kots demanded Russia should 'strike with all our might, regardless of the consequences.' Of course, Russian hardliners routinely clamor for the nuclear obliteration of Ukraine, while issuing thinly veiled, but ultimately empty threats of Armageddon aimed at the Western allies. The fact they are doing so again, after such a painful series of attacks, is hardly surprising. But it would be wrong to get too complacent and dismiss all Russian nuclear saber-rattling as mere propaganda. In fact, there are some worrying reasons to take the slim possibility of a devastating Russian response a little more seriously this time around. Firstly, several Russian pundits have commented on how Ukraine's destruction of a significant number of Russian strategic nuclear bombers may be interpreted as breaching Moscow's legal nuclear threshold. Video obtained by CNN appears to show Russian combat planes burning on the tarmac following a large scale Ukrainian drone attack. CNN cannot independently verify the location of the videos but a source in the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) said the drone strikes targeted four airbases deep inside Russia. The Kremlin's recently updated nuclear doctrine – which sets out conditions for a launch – states that any attack on 'critically important' military infrastructure which 'disrupts response actions by nuclear forces' could trigger a nuclear retaliation. The Ukrainian operation was 'grounds for a nuclear attack,' declared Vladmir Solovyov, a firebrand host on Russian state TV, calling for strikes on the Ukrainian presidential office in Kyiv, and beyond. Whatever the legality, the barrier for a Russian nuclear response remains mercifully high and such a strike is likely to be dismissed in Kremlin circles as an impractical overkill. For a start, it would poison relations with key Russian trading partners like China and India, as well as provoke potential military action against Russian forces. Inevitable mass casualties would be certain to invite universal scorn, further isolating Russia on the international stage. But here's the problem: the Kremlin may now feel overwhelming pressure to restore deterrence. It's not just the recent Ukrainian drone strikes, deep inside Russia, that have humiliated Moscow. Shortly afterwards, Ukraine staged yet another bold attack on the strategic Kerch bridge linking Russia with Crimea – the third time the vital road and rail link has been hit. The capture by Ukrainian forces of the Kursk region in western Russia last year dealt another powerful blow, leaving the Kremlin struggling to liberate its own land. Meanwhile, weekly, if not daily, drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and airports continue to cause widespread disruption far from the front lines. At the same time, Ukraine's allies have been gradually lifting restrictions on the use of Western-supplied arms against Russia, further challenging what were once believed to be Moscow's red lines. Few doubt the Kremlin is itching to respond decisively, but how? One former Russian minister told CNN the most likely response by Moscow would be more 'barbaric' conventional missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities of the kind that the people of Ukraine have already suffered for years. 'There's no other way to go, because Russia does not have the capacity to launch a massive military offensive. They don't have enough personnel for it,' said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister now living outside of Russia. 'People talk about potential use of nuclear weapons and so on. I don't think this is on the table. But, again, Putin has shown many times that he is resorting to barbarity and revenge.' In other words, highly unlikely, but the nuclear option can't be entirely discounted. This Ukraine conflict has already taken multiple unexpected turns, not least the full-scale Russian invasion itself in 2022. And while Ukraine and its supporters revel in the stunning successes of recent military operations, poking a humiliated and wounded Russian bear may yield dangerous and frightening consequences.
The Independent
06-06-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Putin's desperate struggle to replace nuclear-capable bombers lost in Ukraine drone strikes
Western military aviation experts suggest it will take Russia years to replace the nuclear-capable bomber planes damaged in recent Ukrainian drone strikes. These attacks have placed additional strain on Russia's already delayed modernisation programme. Satellite imagery of airfields in Siberia and Russia's far north reveals significant damage, with several aircraft completely destroyed. While reports vary, U.S. officials estimate that up to 20 warplanes were hit, with approximately 10 destroyed. This figure is about half the number estimated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The Russian government on Thursday denied that any planes were destroyed and said the damage would be repaired, but Russian military bloggers have spoken of loss or serious damage to about a dozen planes, accusing commanders of negligence. The strikes - prepared over 18 months in a Ukrainian intelligence operation dubbed "Spider's Web", and conducted by drones that were smuggled close to the bases in trucks - dealt a powerful symbolic blow to a country that, throughout the Ukraine war, has frequently reminded the world of its nuclear might. In practice, experts said, they will not seriously affect Russia's nuclear strike capability which is largely comprised of ground- and submarine-based missiles. However, the Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-22M3 Backfire bombers that were hit were part of a long-range aviation fleet that Russia has used throughout the war to fire conventional missiles at Ukrainian cities, defence plants, military bases, power infrastructure and other targets, said Justin Bronk, an aviation expert at the RUSI think tank in London. The same fleet had also been carrying out periodic patrol flights into the Arctic, North Atlantic and northern Pacific as a show of strength to deter Russia's Western adversaries. Bronk said that at the outset of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia was operating a fleet of 50-60 Bear-Hs and around 60 Backfires, alongside around 20 Tu-160M nuclear-capable Blackjack heavy bombers. He estimated that Russia has now lost more than 10% of the combined Bear-H and Backfire fleet, taking into account last weekend's attacks and the loss of several planes earlier in the war - one shot down and the others struck while on the ground. These losses "will put major pressure on a key Russian force that was already operating at maximum capacity," Bronk told Reuters. Russia's defence ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment. Replacing the planes will be challenging. Both the Bear H and the Backfire are aircraft that were designed in the Soviet era and have been out of production for decades, said Douglas Barrie, aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, although existing planes have been upgraded over the years. Barrie said that building new ones like-for-like was therefore very unlikely, and it was unclear whether Russia had any useable spare airframes of either type. Western sanctions against Russia have aimed to restrict the import of components such as microprocessors that are vital to avionics systems, although Moscow has so far been comparatively successful at finding alternative sources, Barrie added. Russia has been modernising its Blackjack bomber fleet, and Putin sent a pointed signal to the West last year by taking a 30-minute flight in one such aircraft and pronouncing it ready for service. But production of new Blackjacks is slow - one Russian military blogger this week put it at four per year - and Western experts say progress in developing Russia's next-generation PAK DA bomber has also been moving at a crawl. The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) said in a report last month that Russia had signed a contract with manufacturer Tupolev in 2013 to build the PAK DA, but cited Russian media reports as saying state test flights are not scheduled until next year, with initial production to begin in 2027. While it would be logical for Russia to try to speed up its PAK DA plans, it may not have the capacity, said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the FAS. He said in a telephone interview that Russia is facing delays with a range of other big defence projects including its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. RUSI's Bronk was also sceptical of Moscow's chances of accelerating the timeline for the next-generation bomber. "Russia will struggle to deliver the PAK DA programme at all in the coming five years, let alone accelerate it, due to budgetary shortfalls and materials and technology constraints on industry due to sanctions," he said.
Reuters
06-06-2025
- Politics
- Reuters
Russia faces struggle to replace bombers lost in Ukrainian drone strikes
LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - Russia will take years to replace nuclear-capable bomber planes that were hit in Ukrainian drone strikes last weekend, according to Western military aviation experts, straining a modernisation programme that is already delayed. Satellite photos of airfields in Siberia and Russia's far north show extensive damage from the attacks, with several aircraft completely burnt out, although there are conflicting versions of the total number destroyed or damaged. The United States assesses that up to 20 warplanes were hit - around half the number estimated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy - and around 10 were destroyed, two U.S. officials told Reuters. The Russian government on Thursday denied that any planes were destroyed and said the damage would be repaired, but Russian military bloggers have spoken of loss or serious damage to about a dozen planes, accusing commanders of negligence. The strikes - prepared over 18 months in a Ukrainian intelligence operation dubbed "Spider's Web", and conducted by drones that were smuggled close to the bases in trucks - dealt a powerful symbolic blow to a country that, throughout the Ukraine war, has frequently reminded the world of its nuclear might. In practice, experts said, they will not seriously affect Russia's nuclear strike capability which is largely comprised of ground- and submarine-based missiles. However, the Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-22M3 Backfire bombers that were hit were part of a long-range aviation fleet that Russia has used throughout the war to fire conventional missiles at Ukrainian cities, defence plants, military bases, power infrastructure and other targets, said Justin Bronk, an aviation expert at the RUSI think tank in London. The same fleet had also been carrying out periodic patrol flights into the Arctic, North Atlantic and northern Pacific as a show of strength to deter Russia's Western adversaries. Bronk said that at the outset of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia was operating a fleet of 50-60 Bear-Hs and around 60 Backfires, alongside around 20 Tu-160M nuclear-capable Blackjack heavy bombers. He estimated that Russia has now lost more than 10% of the combined Bear-H and Backfire fleet, taking into account last weekend's attacks and the loss of several planes earlier in the war - one shot down and the others struck while on the ground. These losses "will put major pressure on a key Russian force that was already operating at maximum capacity," Bronk told Reuters. Russia's defence ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment. Replacing the planes will be challenging. Both the Bear H and the Backfire are aircraft that were designed in the Soviet era and have been out of production for decades, said Douglas Barrie, aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, although existing planes have been upgraded over the years. Barrie said that building new ones like-for-like was therefore very unlikely, and it was unclear whether Russia had any useable spare airframes of either type. Western sanctions against Russia have aimed to restrict the import of components such as microprocessors that are vital to avionics systems, although Moscow has so far been comparatively successful at finding alternative sources, Barrie added. Russia has been modernising its Blackjack bomber fleet, and Putin sent a pointed signal to the West last year by taking a 30-minute flight in one such aircraft and pronouncing it ready for service. But production of new Blackjacks is slow - one Russian military blogger this week put it at four per year - and Western experts say progress in developing Russia's next-generation PAK DA bomber has also been moving at a crawl. The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) said in a report, opens new tab last month that Russia had signed a contract with manufacturer Tupolev in 2013 to build the PAK DA, but cited Russian media reports as saying state test flights are not scheduled until next year, with initial production to begin in 2027. While it would be logical for Russia to try to speed up its PAK DA plans, it may not have the capacity, said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the FAS. He said in a telephone interview that Russia is facing delays with a range of other big defence projects including its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. RUSI's Bronk was also sceptical of Moscow's chances of accelerating the timeline for the next-generation bomber. "Russia will struggle to deliver the PAK DA programme at all in the coming five years, let alone accelerate it, due to budgetary shortfalls and materials and technology constraints on industry due to sanctions," he said.
CNN
04-06-2025
- General
- CNN
As Ukraine batters Russia with daring assaults, firebrand pro-Kremlin pundits rattle nuclear sabres
How will Moscow respond to the stunning Ukrainian drone strikes on its fleet of strategic aircraft? So far, the Kremlin has stayed tight-lipped, saying only that it is waiting for the results of a formal investigation into the attacks, which struck air bases thousands of miles from the Ukraine border. But fury is being openly vented across the Russia media, with pro-Kremlin pundits and bloggers seething with calls for retribution, even nuclear retaliation. 'This is not just a pretext but a reason to launch nuclear strikes on Ukraine,' the prominent 'Two Majors' bloggers said on their popular Telegram channel, which has over a million subscribers. 'After the mushroom cloud you can think about who lied, made mistakes and so on,' they added, referring to the inevitable Kremlin search for scapegoats for the fiasco. At least one prominent Russian political analyst, Sergei Markov, urged caution, warning in a social media post that using nuclear weapons would 'lead to real political isolation'. But popular blogger Alexander Kots demanded Russia should 'strike with all our might, regardless of the consequences.' Of course, Russian hardliners routinely clammer for the nuclear obliteration of Ukraine, while issuing thinly veiled, but ultimately empty threats of Armageddon aimed at the Western allies. The fact they are doing so again, after such a painful series of attacks, is hardly surprising. But it would be wrong to get too complacent and dismiss all Russian nuclear saber-rattling as mere propaganda. In fact, there are some worrying reasons to take the slim possibility of a devastating Russian response a little more seriously this time around. Firstly, several Russian pundits have commented on how Ukraine's destruction of a significant number of Russian strategic nuclear bombers may be interpreted as breaching Moscow's legal nuclear threshold. Video obtained by CNN appears to show Russian combat planes burning on the tarmac following a large scale Ukrainian drone attack. CNN cannot independently verify the location of the videos but a source in the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) said the drone strikes targeted four airbases deep inside Russia. The Kremlin's recently updated nuclear doctrine – which sets out conditions for a launch – states that any attack on 'critically important' military infrastructure which 'disrupts response actions by nuclear forces' could trigger a nuclear retaliation. The Ukrainian operation was 'grounds for a nuclear attack,' declared Vladmir Solovyov, a firebrand host on Russian state TV, calling for strikes on the Ukrainian presidential office in Kyiv, and beyond. Whatever the legality, the barrier for a Russian nuclear response remains mercifully high and such a strike is likely to be dismissed in Kremlin circles as an impractical overkill. For a start, it would poison relations with key Russian trading partners like China and India, as well as provoke potential military action against Russian forces. Inevitable mass casualties would be certain to invite universal scorn, further isolating Russia on the international stage. But here's the problem: the Kremlin may now feel overwhelming pressure to restore deterrence. It's not just the recent Ukrainian drone strikes, deep inside Russia, that have humiliated Moscow. Shortly afterwards, Ukraine staged yet another bold attack on the strategic Kerch bridge linking Russia with Crimea – the third time the vital road and rail link has been hit. The capture by Ukrainian forces of the Kursk region in western Russia last year dealt another powerful blow, leaving the Kremlin struggling to liberate its own land. Meanwhile, weekly, if not daily, drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and airports continue to cause widespread disruption far from the front lines. At the same time, Ukraine's allies have been gradually lifting restrictions on the use of Western-supplied arms against Russia, further challenging what were once believed to be Moscow's red lines. Few doubt the Kremlin is itching to respond decisively, but how? One former Russian minister told CNN the most likely response by Moscow would be more 'barbaric' conventional missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities of the kind that the people of Ukraine have already suffered for years. 'There's no other way to go, because Russia does not have the capacity to launch a massive military offensive. They don't have enough personnel for it,' said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister now living outside of Russia. 'People talk about potential use of nuclear weapons and so on. I don't think this is on the table. But, again, Putin has shown many times that he is resorting to barbarity and revenge.' In other words, highly unlikely, but the nuclear option can't be entirely discounted. This Ukraine conflict has already taken multiple unexpected turns, not least the full-scale Russian invasion itself in 2022. And while Ukraine and its supporters revel in the stunning successes of recent military operations, poking a humiliated and wounded Russian bear may yield dangerous and frightening consequences.
CNN
04-06-2025
- General
- CNN
As Ukraine batters Russia with daring assaults, firebrand pro-Kremlin pundits rattle nuclear sabres
How will Moscow respond to the stunning Ukrainian drone strikes on its fleet of strategic aircraft? So far, the Kremlin has stayed tight-lipped, saying only that it is waiting for the results of a formal investigation into the attacks, which struck air bases thousands of miles from the Ukraine border. But fury is being openly vented across the Russia media, with pro-Kremlin pundits and bloggers seething with calls for retribution, even nuclear retaliation. 'This is not just a pretext but a reason to launch nuclear strikes on Ukraine,' the prominent 'Two Majors' bloggers said on their popular Telegram channel, which has over a million subscribers. 'After the mushroom cloud you can think about who lied, made mistakes and so on,' they added, referring to the inevitable Kremlin search for scapegoats for the fiasco. At least one prominent Russian political analyst, Sergei Markov, urged caution, warning in a social media post that using nuclear weapons would 'lead to real political isolation'. But popular blogger Alexander Kots demanded Russia should 'strike with all our might, regardless of the consequences.' Of course, Russian hardliners routinely clammer for the nuclear obliteration of Ukraine, while issuing thinly veiled, but ultimately empty threats of Armageddon aimed at the Western allies. The fact they are doing so again, after such a painful series of attacks, is hardly surprising. But it would be wrong to get too complacent and dismiss all Russian nuclear saber-rattling as mere propaganda. In fact, there are some worrying reasons to take the slim possibility of a devastating Russian response a little more seriously this time around. Firstly, several Russian pundits have commented on how Ukraine's destruction of a significant number of Russian strategic nuclear bombers may be interpreted as breaching Moscow's legal nuclear threshold. Video obtained by CNN appears to show Russian combat planes burning on the tarmac following a large scale Ukrainian drone attack. CNN cannot independently verify the location of the videos but a source in the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) said the drone strikes targeted four airbases deep inside Russia. The Kremlin's recently updated nuclear doctrine – which sets out conditions for a launch – states that any attack on 'critically important' military infrastructure which 'disrupts response actions by nuclear forces' could trigger a nuclear retaliation. The Ukrainian operation was 'grounds for a nuclear attack,' declared Vladmir Solovyov, a firebrand host on Russian state TV, calling for strikes on the Ukrainian presidential office in Kyiv, and beyond. Whatever the legality, the barrier for a Russian nuclear response remains mercifully high and such a strike is likely to be dismissed in Kremlin circles as an impractical overkill. For a start, it would poison relations with key Russian trading partners like China and India, as well as provoke potential military action against Russian forces. Inevitable mass casualties would be certain to invite universal scorn, further isolating Russia on the international stage. But here's the problem: the Kremlin may now feel overwhelming pressure to restore deterrence. It's not just the recent Ukrainian drone strikes, deep inside Russia, that have humiliated Moscow. Shortly afterwards, Ukraine staged yet another bold attack on the strategic Kerch bridge linking Russia with Crimea – the third time the vital road and rail link has been hit. The capture by Ukrainian forces of the Kursk region in western Russia last year dealt another powerful blow, leaving the Kremlin struggling to liberate its own land. Meanwhile, weekly, if not daily, drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and airports continue to cause widespread disruption far from the front lines. At the same time, Ukraine's allies have been gradually lifting restrictions on the use of Western-supplied arms against Russia, further challenging what were once believed to be Moscow's red lines. Few doubt the Kremlin is itching to respond decisively, but how? One former Russian minister told CNN the most likely response by Moscow would be more 'barbaric' conventional missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities of the kind that the people of Ukraine have already suffered for years. 'There's no other way to go, because Russia does not have the capacity to launch a massive military offensive. They don't have enough personnel for it,' said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister now living outside of Russia. 'People talk about potential use of nuclear weapons and so on. I don't think this is on the table. But, again, Putin has shown many times that he is resorting to barbarity and revenge.' In other words, highly unlikely, but the nuclear option can't be entirely discounted. This Ukraine conflict has already taken multiple unexpected turns, not least the full-scale Russian invasion itself in 2022. And while Ukraine and its supporters revel in the stunning successes of recent military operations, poking a humiliated and wounded Russian bear may yield dangerous and frightening consequences.
