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Telegraph
22-03-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
Why Russia's Engels air base became Ukraine's No 1 target
First they felt the shock wave as it tore through their homes, then they saw the mushroom cloud. Stunned residents of Saratov ran from their roofless houses after what local authorities called the 'largest-ever' aerial attack on the region, which scattered debris for miles. Ukraine 's target was obvious; the style of its strike was seen before. A swarm of low-flying, slow-moving drones overwhelmed local air defences and struck Russia's sprawling Engels bomber base, in southern Russia. It was the third such attack in just 10 weeks but the timing was significant this time. Hours before, Volodymyr Zelensky said he was willing to commit to a US-proposed ceasefire on energy targets, but warned that 'everything will fly' until actual parameters were agreed upon and documents signed. The Ukrainian leader had just accused Vladimir Putin of yet again breaking his agreement with Donald Trump that he would halt attacks on Ukraine's grid and civilian infrastructure. As a clear military target, Engels was not protected under any such truce. But the strike could be interpreted as a warning from Kyiv to Moscow – that even with energy raids off the table, they can still hit Russia's war machine where it hurts. In the attack, Ukraine's drones hit a huge stockpile of munitions, aviation fuel and – according to analysts – recently delivered cruise missiles, igniting a series of violent secondary explosions that turned the sky a menacing red. The Ukrainian Centre for Strategic Communication (Stratcom) mocked afterwards, saying Engels 'is now facing serious difficulties'. Russian sources reported the damage was 'massive' and satellite images later showed multiple huge warehouses on the site were entirely wiped out. It was the clearest sign yet that the Soviet-era base, home to Putin's prized nuclear-capable heavy strategic bombers, had been pushed to the top of Ukraine's target list. The long-range raid, like the ones before it, was audacious, precise and smartly timed. Ukraine has always chosen its high-value targets carefully – knowing Russia 's missile arsenal dwarfs its own – and hitting high-value targets at opportune moments. Last week was proof, when Ukraine targeted the Russian capital with its largest-ever drone bombardment of the war just hours before high-level delegations from Washington and Kyiv were due to meet in Saudi Arabia. It served as a reminder that despite three years of grinding war and huge losses, Ukraine can still hit back. Dmytro Zhmailo, the executive director of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, said the destruction of military facilities in Engels has always been a 'priority goal' for Ukraine. He said the long-range missiles the strike targeted would be used to bomb Ukraine, while the secondary detonation of the ammunition 'could have destroyed or damaged Tu-95 and Tu-160 aircraft along with their flight and technical crew'. In other words, it underscores Ukraine's ability to aim 'left of the boom' – US army slang for getting ahead of a problem by striking the source – prevent (or get 'left' of) an attack before it happens. Ukraine has increasingly been targeting weapons factories, ammunition warehouses and aviation fuel depots far inside Russia, grinding down Russia's ability to wage war and blunting its crippling aerial bombardment. Over 400 miles east of Ukraine's frontline and 450 miles south of Moscow, Engels houses three types of Russian strategic bombers, Tu-95, Tu-22 and Tu-160, which are all regularly used to launch strikes on Ukrainian cities. Built in 1952, it is also the only permanent base for the Tu-160, Russia's largest and fastest supersonic bomber also known as 'White Swan' to the Russian air force and 'Blackjack' to Nato. Before the war, Engels was the main base for all Russian missile carriers and aircraft cruise missiles. According to Maxim Starchak, an expert on Russian defence and strategic weapons, it had housed 16 Tu-160s and 18 Tu-95s. But in December 2022, Ukraine hit the base three separate times, when its military was first showing its ability to successfully penetrate Russia's air defences and strike long-range targets, damaging a Tu-22 and a Tu-95 After that, 'at least two-thirds of the aircraft were relocated to other military airfields in the country,' Mr Starchak told The Telegraph. Engels, however, remains a critical launch base for long-range strikes on Ukraine. And the airbase has had a rough time of it lately. On Jan 8, Ukrainian drones targeted a fuel depot there, triggering a huge blaze that raged for six days as it burnt through thousands of litres of precious jet fuel. Just hours after the fire was finally contained on Jan 14, drones struck the same target a second time. 'There will be no rest for the wicked,' Ukraine's Stratcom warned. On the morning of the March 20 strike, Ukrainian accounts say there were three Tu-95 and two Tu-160 strategic bombers at Engels. But the aircraft was not the target. Andrii Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, said that the strike caused a significant loss of missiles, including the Kh-101, estimated to cost $13 million (£ 10 million) a piece. Mr Kovalenko said: 'The exact number will be determined later. This airbase stores the largest stockpile of missiles used by Russia's strategic aviation for strikes against Ukraine.' The footage of the strike also supports his report. The size of the explosion, the mushroom cloud it produced, and the subsequent fires it triggered, are in line with the theory that a weapons storage area was hit — and well. Open-source analysts reported that an Il-76 Candid airlifter had recently arrived, supposedly carrying additional missiles for the bombers. A bomber – although incredibly costly – can be replaced, but destroying a warehouse full of long-range cruise missiles has the potential to reduce the capabilities of Russia's strategic bombing fleet 'for months', said Mr Starchak. He added: 'The Kh-101 and Kh-55 are expensive missiles that still have Western components in their composition, access to which is limited, which means these missiles are produced in small batches. 'If Russia has lost a significant supply of them, the effect will be very large.' The strike also underscores the ability of relatively slow and low-flying Ukrainian drones, which are often hard to detect, to travel deep into Russian territory and strike strategic military targets. It also points to critical issues in Russian air defence capabilities.'There are not enough air defence systems [in Russia], and they are not being used effectively in all areas,' said Mr Starchak. For now, it is unlikely Ukraine will strike Engels again soon as Russia will be busy transferring additional air defences there, dragging them away from another target. Instead, its military will likely be looking to strike next where Russia is not prepared. Mr Zhmailo said: 'Engels is certainly an important target, but it is not the only one in the priority of the Ukrainian military.' Ukraine plans to produce 30,000 long-range drones in 2025. Kyiv knows where Russia's airfields are and they are large, stationary and visible targets. Ukraine is also reported to have tested a drone with a 3,000km range, potentially putting even more Russian targets within each. If Ukraine's targets are limited as part of Mr Trump's plans to push towards peace, Mr Zhmailo said to expect near-daily strikes deep inside Russian territory. And on the political front, as Mr Zelenksy prepares for the next round of peace negotiations in Saudi Arabia, his country has proven it has far more cards to play.
Asia Times
04-03-2025
- Business
- Asia Times
With US military aid cut, Ukraine prepares to fight alone
'If we are not invited to NATO, we must build NATO on our territory,' Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with The Economist published February 12, before his now historic White House showdown with Donald Trump. His remarks came in response to prior signals from the Trump administration that Ukraine would not be joining the security alliance. After the Oval Office spat, and the news now that Trump is cutting off all military aid to Ukraine, imposing costs on Russia independent of Western supplies is even more important. Since 2022, Ukraine has steadily expanded its ability to strike deep into Russian territory, refining its long-range capabilities in the process. In his New Year's address, Zelensky highlighted these efforts, stating that Ukraine now produces over a million drones annually while ramping up missile manufacturing, calling them Ukraine's 'arguments for a just peace.' Now as Ukraine enters its fourth year of war, long-range strike capabilities have become a cornerstone of its defense strategy. They are central to its effort to build NATO within its own borders. While Western military aid remains critical, Kyiv's ability to produce its own missiles is emerging as a key pillar of deterrence and a way to impose greater costs on the Kremlin. This shift in focus is also evident from Ukraine's Western partners as Sweden's latest US$1.2 billion military aid package earmarked $90 million for Ukraine's missile and drone production. This capacity will be put to the test with Trump's withdrawal of US military assistance. Ukraine has concentrated its attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, particularly oil refineries – the backbone of Moscow's war effort. Drone and missile strikes have by some estimates already knocked out 10% of Russia's refining capacity, exposing the Kremlin's vulnerability as it remains deeply reliant on oil revenues to sustain its war effort. Four major Russian oil refineries have suspended operations following Ukrainian drone attacks just in the past month. Repeated strikes over the past year have pushed Russia's average daily crude oil production to a 20-year low, while also helping bring Russia's refining capacity to its lowest level in 12 years. Ukraine has expanded its targeting beyond refineries to oil transport hubs, explosives factories, and ammunition depots. Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center and a former adviser to Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, in an interview highlighted the broader impact of these strikes, noting that 'Russia's oil industry is a crucial pillar of its economy – oil and petroleum products account for the bulk of its exports.' Kuzan added that disrupting Russia's refining capacity drives up domestic fuel prices, increasing economic strain and potentially public discontent. While Moscow has found ways to circumvent Western sanctions, Kuzan noted that it has no effective countermeasure against Ukraine's evolving drone capabilities. Each successful strike erodes Russia's war economy, making it harder to maintain supply chains, sustain mobilization and manage domestic stability, he said. The pressure is mounting. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking after the opening of peace talks with the US, condemned Ukraine's drone attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, stating: 'This should reinforce the view that Zelensky and his team must be restrained and have their hands tied.' Ukraine's drone campaign is likely to intensify as the US backs away from its war effort. A Ukrainian drone unit commander who is leading these strikes explained to this writer that his unit's primary goal is to disrupt logistics hubs, destroy ammunition warehouses and ease pressure on the front lines. With drones now capable of reaching 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles), Ukraine can now hit deep inside Russia – an ability that continues to grow. With limited supplies of Western long-range missiles, such as ATACMS and Storm Shadow, Ukraine has prioritized rebuilding its domestic production. As a result, Kyiv has set an ambitious goal: producing 3,000 long-range missiles by the end of 2025. Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has doubled down this commitment, declaring that '2025 will be the year of the Ukrainian cruise missile.' Obviously, missile production is inherently more complex than drone manufacturing. While Ukraine has successfully scaled up drone production, missile development requires specialized production lines, precision engineering and secure manufacturing facilities – all difficult to establish in wartime. But despite wartime conditions, Ukraine has made significant progress in developing its own weapons. Several domestically produced systems are now in deployment. For instance, the Neptune, originally an anti-ship missile, was repurposed as the land-launched cruise missile that reportedly sank Russia's Moskva missile cruiser in 2022. The Hrim-2, a hypersonic ballistic missile, reportedly passed testing in late 2024, while the Palianytsia, a missile-drone hybrid, entered serial production in December. The Ukrainian military has also recently received its first batch of Peklo (a Ukrainian word for 'hell') missile drones, long-range munitions with a 700-km range and a jet engine reaching 700 km/h. Developed by Ukroboronprom in under a year, they are already in combat use and reportedly rival Russian cruise missiles at a fraction of the cost. Further expanding its arsenal, Kyiv unveiled the Trembita light cruise missile in February. Designed for deep strikes, Trembita offers a low-cost alternative to Western munitions at just $4,000 per unit. Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has called domestic missile production essential for strategic independence, stating: 'Our priority is the development of domestic drones and long-range weapons, including ballistic missiles.' With US military aid now cut, EU assistance levels uncertain and NATO membership out of reach, Ukraine's path to building a stronger domestic deterrent against Russia depends on expanding its missile and drone production. After surrendering its nuclear arsenal under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum – with security assurances from Russia, the US and the UK – Ukraine was also left outside NATO's protection in the decades that followed. Now, Kyiv must focus on developing a long-range strike capability to raise the cost of war for Moscow. By producing its own arsenal, Ukraine can deal with US military cuts and external restrictions on weapon use to ensure it has the firepower to strike where and when it wants in Russia – and on its own terms. Ukrainian-American frontline reporter-activist and security engineer David Kirichenko is an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank. He is on Twitter/X @DVKirichenko .
