Latest news with #UlrikeHoffmann-Burchardi
Time of India
6 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Markets watch: Asian stocks pause after rally; oil rises on Fed cut hopes
Representative image (Picture credit: AP) Asian shares moved in a tight range on Thursday, pausing after three days of gains fuelled by growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. Japanese stocks pulled back from record levels, while South Korea and Australia advanced. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.31% and the broader Topix dropped 0.64%, reversing from Wednesday's all-time high close. South Korea's Kospi gained 0.39% while the small-cap Kosdaq was flat. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.49% after official data showed the country's unemployment rate eased to 4.2% in July, in line with economists' forecasts, down from 4.3% in June. Employment rose by 24,500 last month, slightly below expectations of a 25,000 increase, as per news agency Reuters. The Australian dollar climbed to its highest level since late July on the news. Chinese equities were also in focus after a US-listed gauge of mainland stocks rose for a second session, supported by Tencent's latest earnings, Bloomberg reported. In the US, stocks closed at record highs overnight, led by Apple and Amazon, while Bitcoin hit a fresh all-time peak. Market sentiment is being underpinned by bets that the Fed will deliver a quarter-point cut in September, with CME FedWatch data putting the probability at nearly 100%. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Dementia Has Been Linked To a Common Habit. Do You Do It? Memory Health Learn More Undo Bloomberg quoted Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi of UBS Global Wealth Management as saying, 'As the labour market continues to weaken, we think the US central bank will resume interest rate cuts next month, with 25-basis-point cuts at each meeting through January 2026 for a total of 100 basis points. ' US treasury secretary Scott Bessent has gone further, suggesting a 50 basis-point reduction could be on the table, and arguing the Fed's benchmark rate should be at least 1.5 percentage points lower. 'We could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50 basis-point rate cut in September,' he said on Bloomberg Television. Meanwhile, oil prices edged higher, recovering from a sharp drop the previous day. Brent crude rose 28 cents, or 0.43%, to $65.91 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate added 23 cents, or 0.37%, to $62.89, according to Reuters. Prices were supported by expectations of lower US interest rates, which could boost energy demand, and geopolitical risks surrounding an upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15. Trump has warned of 'very severe consequences' if Putin fails to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine during talks in Alaska on Friday. As per Reuters, analysts at Rystad Energy noted in a client report that 'the uncertainty of US-Russia peace talks continues to add a bullish risk premium given Russian oil buyers could face more economic pressure.' However, gains in crude were capped by bearish signals from supply data and forecasts. US crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 3 million barrels last week, against expectations of a small draw, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In addition, the International Energy Agency forecast that global oil supply growth in 2025 and 2026 will outpace earlier projections as OPEC+ and other producers ramp up output. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays , public holidays , current gold rate and silver price .
Canada News.Net
05-08-2025
- Business
- Canada News.Net
U.S. stocks close Tuesday with minor losses
NEW YORK, New York - U.S. stock markets took a well-earned breather on Tuesday, after recent heady gains. "Today we're seeing the market pull back a little bit, but equities have been on a nice run. We're probably due for a period of consolidation, some backing and filling, so to speak," Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management told CNBC Tuesday. "Clearly, valuations are elevated. This is not a cheap market." Although a bumpy road ahead is likely, there is light at the end of the tunnel, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, chief investment officer for the Americas and global head of equities at UBS Global Wealth Management. "While we still expect near-term volatility as the impact of U.S. tariffs feeds through to the economy, we also believe the bull market is intact and expect further gains over the next year," Hoffmann-Burchardi wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. "Our base case remains that the U.S. central bank will resume rate cuts at the September meeting, with a total of 100 basis points of easing by early 2026," she continued. "Rate cuts have typically been supportive for stock markets during non-recession periods, and a likely weaker US dollar as a result of lower rates should offer a further tailwind." U.S. Markets Dip S&P 500 fell 0.49 percent to 6,299.20, marking its third straight decline as technology and consumer discretionary stocks led losses. Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.14 percent to 44,111.74, with losses capped by gains in healthcare and industrial stocks. NASDAQ Composite dropped 0.65 percent to 20,916.55, pressured by declines in mega-cap tech names. Trading volumes were active, with the S&P 500 seeing 3.04 billion shares traded, while the NASDAQ recorded 6.475 billion shares changing hands. Market Drivers Analysts attributed the U.S. pullback to: Outlook Traders will be closely watching: Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting minutes Thursday's jobless claims data Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for further market direction Global Foreign Exchange Markets Show Mixed Movements on Tuesday The foreign exchange market saw varied movements on Tuesday, with the U.S. dollar gaining against some major currencies while weakening slightly against others. Moves in either direction were limited amid cautious trading. Key Currency Pairs EUR/USD (Euro / US Dollar): The euro edged up 0.05 percent to 1.1573, as traders assessed economic data from the Eurozone. USD/JPY (US Dollar / Japanese Yen): The dollar strengthened 0.35 percent to 147.60, amid expectations of continued monetary policy divergence between the U.S. and Japan. USD/CAD (US Dollar / Canadian Dollar): The greenback rose modestly by 0.03 percent to 1.3781, supported by fluctuating oil prices. GBP/USD (British Pound / US Dollar): Sterling gained 0.10 percent to 1.3294, as investors awaited key UK economic reports later in the week. USD/CHF (US Dollar / Swiss Franc): The dollar dipped 0.04 percent to 0.8074, with the Swiss franc holding steady amid cautious market sentiment. Commodity-Linked Currencies AUD/USD (Australian Dollar / US Dollar): The Aussie dollar climbed 0.06 percent to 0.6469, supported by improved risk appetite in Asian trading. NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar): The Kiwi dollar declined 0.20 percent to 0.5895, pressured by weaker-than-expected domestic economic data. Strong gains seen in stock markets around the world Global stock indices delivered a solid performance on Tuesday, with major gains in most Asian and European markets. Australian and South Korean markets led the gainers, while Israel and India registered significant losses. Canadian Market Outperforms In contrast to U.S. markets, Canada's S&P/TSX Composite surged 2.03 percent to 27,570.08, its best single-day gain in three months. The rally was fueled by strong performances in energy and materials stocks as commodity prices rebounded. Trading volume reached 281.796 million shares. UK and Europe The FTSE 100 (UK) rose to 9,142.73, gaining 14.43 points, up 0.16 percent. Germany's DAX climbed 0.37 percent to 23,846.07, while France's CAC 40 dipped slightly by 0.14 percent to 7,621.04. The EURO STOXX 50 edged up 0.14 percent to 5,249.59, and the Euronext 100 saw a modest 0.07 percent increase to 1,559.40. Belgium's BEL 20 surged 1.23 percent to 4,665.35. Asia and Pacific In China the Shanghai Composite rose 0.96 percent to 3,617.60. Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 0.64 percent to 40,549.54. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index advanced 0.68 percent to 24,902.53, while Singapore's STI Index rose 0.27 percent to 4,208.58. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 jumped 1.23 percent to 8,770.40, and the All Ordinaries gained 1.20 percent to 9,028.80. India's S&P BSE Sensex, however, fell 0.38 percent to 80,710.25, while in Indonesia the IDX Composite rose 0.68 percent to 7,515.19. Malaysia's KLSE increased 0.76 percent to 1,538.64. In New Zealand the NZX 50 surged 1.52 percent to 12,877.04. South Korea's KOSPI soared 1.60 percent to 3,198.00, and in Taiwan the TWSE climbed 1.20 percent to 23,660.59. Middle East & Africa
CNBC
11-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
The S&P 500 is starting to close its 2025 gap to foreign stocks as Trump leans in to tariff fights
The Trump administration's moves to ratchet up trade tensions has done little to knock U.S. stocks off their recent highs, but investors with broader portfolios might suddenly be feeling pinched. Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, chief investment officer for the Americas and global head of equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note to clients that Trump appears "emboldened to escalate trade actions" after some recent policy wins. The strength of the stock market may be emboldening the White House in its trade talks. Trump, in a phone call with NBC News' "Meet the Press" moderator Kristen Welker, said the record stock market highs were evidence that tariffs have been " very well-received ." Domestic stocks that are rising despite tariff concerns may simply reflect that goods-based tariffs aren't necessarily a major negative to the tech-heavy U.S. stock market. "Many of the most heavily weighted U.S. equities in the S & P 500 are fairly insulated from tariff risk, in our view, and we think the index can climb to 6,500 by June next year despite periodic volatility," Hoffmann-Burchardi said. That's about 4% above where the index was trading Friday. Of course, many investors hold more than just large cap domestic stocks. One key trend to watch may be whether foreign markets show the same resilience as U.S. stocks recently have. In the first half of the year, global stocks outperformed the U.S. — an unusual reversal of long-term American dominance. But there are some signs that may be starting to flip back now in the direction of the U.S. Major Vanguard ETFs tracking Europe, emerging markets and world markets excluding the U.S. are all underperforming the S & P 500 in July after outperforming through the first half. And some country-specific funds whose nations are are in the crosshairs of new White House tariffs are doing even worse. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) is still outperforming the U.S. in 2025, but is down nearly 5% in July after Trump slapped 50% levies on the South American country this week. The iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC) is also trailing this month. EWZ YTD mountain This Brazil fund has struggled in July after a strong first half. If this latest reversal against international and in favor of domestic doesn't hold, valuations may be one reason. Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist of Goldman Sachs International, said in a note to clients that U.S. stocks still look expensive compared to rest of the world, even with the first half underperformance. "After a decade of U.S.-led dominance, the case for diversification is back. Valuation spreads between the U.S. and the rest of the world are at historical highs," Oppenheimer said. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
Yahoo
10-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
AI Capex Buildup Not Going Anywhere: UBS's Hoffmann-Burchardi
Stocks have room to rise despite tariff-induced volatility, says Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS Global Wealth CIO Americas and Global Head of Equities, on Open Interest. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Mint
18-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
AI could create the first $10 trillion company. This stock pro lays out how.
Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi learned that blind spots and narrow viewpoints can lead to some of the biggest investment losses. In 2007, for instance, she watched quantitative investors take a beating as markets shook in the lead-up to the financial crisis. These days, she takes a strikingly broad view of companies, industries, and markets. She's especially alert to the big innovations that can transform all three. Hoffmann-Burchardi joined UBS in 2023 after 25 years at Tudor Investments, where she was an early investor in digital disruption and the likes of Nvidia. Now, she helps guide institutional investors and ultrahigh-net-worth clients as chief investment officer of global equities for UBS Global Wealth Management, which oversees nearly $4.2 trillion in assets. At the end of this month, she will add the title of CIO of Americas. We spoke with Hoffmann-Burchardi in late May and again via e-mail on June 13 to learn why she's confident about the U.S. market and economy. We also delved into spending related to artificial intelligence, where the first $10 trillion company might come from, and why the U.S. fiscal deficit actually could offer U.S. stocks some support. Barron's: What's your framework for thinking about the market and stocks? You seem less concerned than your peers about the traditional categories for stocks, like growth and value. Hoffmann-Burchardi: We have three perspectives important to formulate our views: an understanding of the macro situation, particularly real GDP growth and real interest rates; an understanding of specific companies; and transformational opportunities. Only 1% of public companies create 80% of the wealth in equity markets, so understanding the large-cap players is critical. Over the past 30 years, the style factors that are so predominant in investing—size and value or growth—accounted for just 5% of equity returns. We have to rethink the framework of how we allocate portfolios, since over 50% of returns are company-specific. So, we ask how we can find these companies or factors driving wealth creation: Transformational innovations are key and underappreciated by the investment community. What are some of the big transformational innovations of the past? We looked at which companies hit certain market cap thresholds. General Motors was the first $10 billion company, and then IBM with the invention of the PC was the first $100 billion company. Apple became the first $1 trillion company. Every time these companies reach a new market cap threshold, it is because they were in a vortex of some innovation transformation. Now, we think AI, electrification, and longevity are the opportunities, and the first $10 trillion company will likely arise within those innovations. More immediately, what does the conflict between Israel and Iran mean for the market? Our base case is that this conflict does not escalate, given U.S. and international pressures. But we are watching for signs, in particular, that Iran attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical oil chokepoint, which would risk global escalation. We carry a gold allocation in the portfolio to serve as a crisis hedge as well as a hedge against inflation and dollar downside. What's your general expectation for the market? After the recent rally in the S&P 500 index, we downgraded the U.S. to neutral but still see upside to our 12-month price target of 6400. Given the difficult fiscal situation in the U.S., with debt at more than 120% of gross domestic product, the policy path is likely to be along a fiscal tightrope, imposing guardrails for an economic policy that needs to be growth-oriented while fiscally prudent. Similar historical episodes of high debt levels, such as the U.S. and United Kingdom after World War II and Canada in the 1990s, suggest that economic growth is one of the key factors in lowering deficits. That makes us believe from a tariff and an economic-policy perspective there can't be a risk to the economy slowing. When it comes to trade policy, we are trying to differentiate between negotiating strategy and intended outcome. What is your base case for trade policy?We think the 25% effective tariffs announced on [April 2] were a starting point to negotiations, but will ultimately settle closer to 15% by year end. The recent court rulings give negotiating partners more leverage. The longer these proceedings last, the more likely it is that tariffs will turn out to be more moderate than feared. Equally important is how selective tariffs are going to be. For imported goods that cannot easily be substituted with U.S. goods, such as advanced AI chips or active pharmaceutical ingredients, high tariffs are economically more damaging. What are the prospects for a U.S. recession? There could be a bit of economic weakness in the next few months, as companies are reluctant to invest, given the tariff uncertainty. Policy uncertainty is at levels similar to Covid 19, also reflected in the high number of mentions of 'uncertainty" in earnings far, earnings results have been strong in the first quarter, while second-quarter guidance is a bit more mixed, with some companies pulling or issuing scenario-based guidance. We have not yet seen an impact on employment, likely because companies have learned from Covid-19 that layoffs are not easily reversible. Despite the market rebound, there remains investor skepticism about the U.S. trade and fiscal position. What is the U.S.'s real edge at this point? If we look at transformational innovation opportunities, most companies poised to pursue them are based in the U.S. There could be hiccups, but we are not as pessimistic as a lot of people are. I think about where growth could come from. AI is one of those opportunities that will lead to unprecedented productivity growth over the next few years, and the U.S. is in pole position. The progress made by China's DeepSeek raised concerns that AI would require less spending on chips, hardware, and power generation. How do you see it? The market interpreted DeepSeek as AI becoming so much more efficient that we don't need hardware and chips because it's only using a fraction of the compute. Our view is different: If a resource becomes more efficient, you are going to use more of the semiconductor market, the cost of a transistor has dropped by 99.99% over the past 50 years, but the total market value (price multiplied by volume sold) has increased more than 100 times. That's a phenomenon called the Jevons paradox, which states that when technology makes it more efficient or cheaper to use a resource, people use more of it, increasing rather than decreasing the total size of the market. The more efficient AI gets, the more widely it can be adopted. We are early in this. What else is underappreciated about AI? It's the first technology in human history that is self-improving. That's why we are seeing such unprecedented change and why it's more unpredictable than innovations that are more linear. Right now, our AI usage is based on question-and-answer AI interactions, but as we transition toward bigger-enterprise use cases—including lengthy document creation for regulatory filings and reports and then agentic AI, where agents will autonomously complete more-complex tasks—AI will require more compute. In our estimates, compute demand for generative AI workloads could be five times higher than the current compute supply, driven mainly by the reasoning intensity of agentic AI. That makes us believe that the 'picks and shovel" layer of AI—cloud companies and AI chips—will still be a key part of the investment thesis. At some point, it will move toward the applications layer, but a lot of that may happen in private markets. Companies that own the whole vertical stack for AI—chips, intelligence, and application layers, such as several of the big-tech companies and hyperscalers in the U.S.—offer the best risk/reward opportunity. What are the best investment opportunities in electrification? We see an imbalance in the demand and supply for electricity over the next decade. On the demand side, it is driven by electrification of the physical economy from transportation to buildings. AI compute demand plays a role, as well: We see 8% of the electricity demand increase between now and 2030 coming from AI data centers. On the supply side, we face an outdated electric grid that is at or beyond its intended lifespan. In the U.S., more than 70% of the transmission lines are over 25 years old, many approaching the end of their 50-to-80-year service life, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. What's another big investment theme? Longevity is a slower-moving theme. We will see more 65-year-olds and older by 2034 versus those 18-years-old or younger. Drug discovery is being helped by large language model AI. AlphaFold [an AI program] uses LLM to predict the 3-D structure of proteins—a big breakthrough for drug discovery. Some companies are focused on using AI for certain diseases like Alzheimer's. We are investing in that theme through pharma and medical devices. It's still early on its impact on shifting consumer trends and patterns, but it will have a lot of implications. How do these themes connect with the geopolitical debates weighing on markets? Understanding these transformational innovations is very important to the geopolitical stakes. Why do we have export restrictions on AI chips [to China]? Because, ultimately, AI is viewed as the key geopolitical tool, and supremacy in AI means a lot. The same administration is looking at [tariffs and restrictions] related to semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. What we have seen from Trump 1.0 and more recent remarks is that his approach is a diplomatic one. A more de-escalatory diplomatic path is a positive geopolitically. But if anything happens in Taiwan—though the probability is sparse—the potential impact is vast. The only way to protect a portfolio from these types of tail risks is with diversifiers such as gold. Gold has run a lot, but we still like it as a buffer or diversifier. Higher-quality companies within the vortex of these transformational companies is also a place where over the long term we have high conviction.
