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Belfast Telegraph
14-05-2025
- Business
- Belfast Telegraph
‘The patriotism won't last long when Americans realise they are getting gouged on prices'
'But he's made so many exceptions and continues to do so… it's like smashing up the bar, and then realised you like drinking.' The phrases 'own goal' and 'echo chamber' are part of our conversation into what impact the announced tariff war from US President Donald Trump is having – or could have – on our wider global economy, and what it means for us at home. Mark heads up Belfast-based OCO Global – an advisory firm in the international trade, investment and economic development sector. 'The initial trigger happy Trump with these swathing tariffs has been tempered by the markets, and the bond markets in particular,' he tells Ulster Business. 'When you see the row back on smartphones, and chips, you'd think with advisers and heft, that someone sensible in the room would say it's an own goal. 'It tells you a lot about the echo chamber that he has created for himself. There is no scope for dissent.' At the core of all of this is stability. It's something Northern Ireland struggled with for decades amid the worst of the Troubles, and to a lesser extent, continued to do amid periods of political instability and flux in the years since. 'The bottom line from a business point of view, is page one, paragraph one, of the playbook on investment – you need a stable and predictable regime to de-risk your investment,' Mark says. 'The US used to be the safest haven, now it's less so. Of course, I get it – he's trying to [discourage] exporting to the US, and incentive direct investment and become more self-sufficient. 'But the way he is going about it is the wrong way. The US is already an attractive market, with competitive businesses there – they don't need a stick to get them there. 'The skills and attitudes towards manual work have changed, and they aren't coming back. 'More immediately for Northern Ireland firms, the message is, for the time being – the US market, for exporting, is still attractive. 'It's consumer-driven demand. When you try to restrict competition, you are limiting consumer choices – it's been tried [in other countries unsuccessfully]. In the end, consumer demand forced them to open their markets. 'The US is a very competitive market. If the only option is American then the patriotism won't last long when they realise they are getting gouged on price or monopolised by one or two suppliers.' He said while some of the US's big consumer retailers may source goods from dozens of countries, if restrictions and taxation comes in which forces them to buy from American suppliers, it may not have a happy ending. 'It's people power in the end that will disrupt his plan,' he says. 'There is way too much focus on [physical] products. But the biggest part of economy is services and digital – no one is talking about that. 'Trump has to have his victory, but at moment it looks like he's scoring own goals. With the pandemic, we released how dependent we are on China. 'Trump is doing the same with Europe as a wake up call. The dependence on foreign investment is a source of a lot of nervousness – rebooting, and seeing lots of [organisations] diversifying exports.' He says we have historically had an overdependence on trade and business with the US market. However, Mark says one of his clients, a manufacturer, has already set up a major base in the US – before the current Trump administration took over – and is seeing strong trade. He says the tariffs on nations such as China and Mexico have been something of a boon for firms operating in that space. 'They have never been busier,' Mark says. 'The US market is 10 times what Europe is.' Being so close to one of its major customer bases allows assembly and a degree of customisation only possible, given the proximity. But looking ahead, prices are likely to rise – regardless of whether the Trump tariffs are introduced, and how severe they may be for certain sectors in particular. 'A number of factors have forced price increases over last 12 months,' Mark says. 'Inflation and interest rates, the price of money and labour – it's already high. Clients are, to some degree, anticipating increases.' He said rising prices, for some, can be locked in, whereas others have less flexibility. 'It's fast-moving stuff – prices have to be imposed immediately,' he says. 'For engineering firms, fabrication, advanced manufacturing, they can lock in prices, as they have bought raw materials – probably contracted some time ago.'
Belfast Telegraph
22-04-2025
- Business
- Belfast Telegraph
Big firms could ‘flip' to Northern Ireland amid ongoing tariff war with US
While Lucinda Creighton, former Minister of State for European Affairs, says it's not a scenario she wants to see, if the US hits the EU with larger tariffs, she believes Northern Ireland could see new opportunities, given its 'unique' position And she says that's regardless of the emerging tariff situation, given Northern Ireland's position on the world stage under the Windsor Framework. 'I do think that there is a unique position there to be leveraged,' she told Ulster Business. '[That's] regardless of what the tariff situation looks like. Under the NI Protocol and Windsor Framework, that different countries would employ different tariffs to the EU… that is something which is going to be a factor in the future of Northern Ireland. 'So many Irish businesses [which have operations] north and south, you could see some of that flipping. It could happen – I'm not advocating for it, but you could see an easier solution for companies as opposed to absorbing those tariffs.' US President Donald Trump announced a swathe of global tariffs, including an initial 20% on EU goods, and 10% for those coming from the UK. However, the majority of those are currently on hold. Ms Creighton was in Belfast to launch Vulcan Consulting's new Belfast office, which will be headed by Conor Houston. She said Northern Ireland has an opportunity to grow its talent pool, with a focus now on skills rather than tax incentives for foreign direct investment. 'We are busy and active with an office in Brussels, focused on the EU institutions,' she says. 'With the UK gone from the EU, that direct link diminished for Northern Ireland, directly. We can play a role in building relationships with Northern Ireland companies, and with other organisations.' And with uncertainty in the air, globally – with potential tariffs on the way, but yet to be introduced – Ms Creighton says it's likely that major investment decisions will be 'on pause' for most US multi-national companies. '… it puts a freeze on things,' she says. 'With turmoil comes opportunity. I was minister during financial crisis. If you look at how Ireland emerged, it was more competitive for FDI, and we made structural changes which benefited the economy and society – [we can] look at this as an opportunity.' Vulcan Consulting specialises in providing clients with strategic advice on navigating the political and regulatory landscapes in Ireland and across Europe. '[There is now] an opportunity for Europe to get its health in order,' she says. '[It's] investing in defence… there is huge opportunity for the north, as it's already [working] in security, defence and cyber-security.' Asked if the potential impact on the economy could be more sizeable than the financial crisis in 2008, Ms Creighton said it could 'potentially have a longer term impact'. 'This is much more wide ranging across entire economy and global world order with trade,' she says. 'I'm still optimistic… there's a long way to go and a painful few months. We have to hope that ultimately the US isn't going to destroy the US economy, which they are on track to do at the moment.' On her own firm's plans, Ms Creighton says it's planning to extend its footprint and reach across the sectors. '[We are] working across the sectors – life sciences, medtech, digital, tech, semi-conductors and veering into AI. 'We are very much focused on the huge potential for an all-island approach to some of that, especially around energy, as a lot of it is connected – north to south, and east to west. 'We have lots of UK clients and aspirations to grow in GB. Northern Ireland is a key focal point of that unique status under the Windsor Framework.' Speaking about the new Northern Ireland base, she says: 'We have opened our Belfast office at a time of huge uncertainty for businesses in Northern Ireland, especially with the recent announcement of US tariffs and potential retaliation by the UK and the EU. 'We have worked with many of Ireland's leading companies including Amazon, Intel, Bank of America, Eli Lilly and Johnson & Johnson. We have experience in delivering influence and impact for these global companies at the most senior levels within the EU – and across the globe.' And Conor Houston, Vulcan Consulting's Northern Ireland director, says we are 'uniquely placed as a global gateway for trade'. 'The Vulcan team can maximise the influence of Northern Ireland's leading companies in Ireland, the EU, the US and beyond. There is huge opportunity to support companies seeking to develop an all-island presence. 'With offices in Brussels, Dublin and now Belfast, I know that our team at Vulcan can bring the global insight, influence and perspective to navigate this fast-changing world and grow their businesses internationally.'
