16-07-2025
Buhari death don create political vacuum for Northern Nigeria?
Di death of former Nigerian president, Muhammadu Buhari, don get significant impact for di kontri political scene, especially for di northern region.
Sabi pipo say im death fit start beta struggle for power for di north as di 2027 general elections dey draw nearer.
For dis region, dem bin dey see Buhari was as not just ordinary politician, but as bridge wey connect di poor to di political elite.
Many believe say e inherited im grassroots support base from di late president, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, as e develop a cult-like following among di urban and rural poor (wey dem dey call di "talakawa" for Hausa language).
Buhari image as a man of integrity bin fetch am massive 12 million votes, mostly from di north, during di 2011 presidential election.
Di former major general who im supporters dey call "Sai Baba", bin achieve dis wit limited resources and despite say e no get nationwide political operation.
E later lead im opposition All Progressives Congress to ogbonge victory for di 2015 presidential election, as e win 15.4 million votes and beat di incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan, by more dan 2.5 million votes.
Dis mark di turning point for Buhari who bicom di most powerful politician for di kontri.
"I belong to everybody, and I belong to nobody," e tok for im 2015 inaugural speech.
Dis statement shock di political class for Nigeria, as e mean say tins no go be business as usual for dose wey place personal ambition bifor ideology.
"Im speech shock di elitist class and plenty of dem bin run comot from di kontri afta dat," Professor Khalid Aliyu, di Secretary-General of Jama'atu Nasril Islam, JNI, tok.
Gimba Kakanda, Senior Special Assistant to di President on Research and Analytics, say Buhari bin surprise many pipo who bin initially dismiss am as a parochial northerner or religious extremist wey no get intention to unite di kontri.
"E show say e dey willing to engage and work wit all parts of di federation. Di 2015 speech bin capture di essence of dat transformation and intent," e tok.
However, no be evribody bin dey convinced.
Journalist Nicholas Ibekwe believe say Buhari statement later turn out to be just ordinary catchy quote.
"E no live up to am wen e dey for power. Most of di important positions na northerners e give dem to. So, wetin e bin really mean?" e tok.
"Buhari na just fortunate politician wey get political charisma, but e neva at any time rally di north for a particular course outside of im interest."
Man of integrity
Although Buhari bin come under fire for im first term for office sake of im handling of security, economic and corruption issues, e still win ogbonge victory for di 2019 elections. Again, most of im vote base come from di north.
For di 2023 presidential election, as e dey prepare to comot from office, Buhari again make history. Dis time e refuse to endorse any of di candidates. Dis na di first time wey sitting president go openly refuse to support anybodi for im party primary election.
Instead, e declare say e go support whoever win di party ticket, to create level playing field and throw di race open.
"E good say e bin chose to dey neutral and to only be a guide. E bin no want to interfer for pipo affairs," JNI Professor Aliyu tok.
However, some bin tink say by doing dat, e don squander opportunity to solidify im own political strength.
As e leave office two years ago, Buhari bin dey vocal about im own future as e tok say e no want to be disturbed.
E no be surprise say afta e hand over to President Bola Tinubu, he retire to im hometown for Katsina state and no too dey appear for public.
"Im death go create very big vacuum. We see how afta e move to Daura, di place turn to political pilgrimage wit pipo looking for im for guidance and advice," Professor Aliyu tok.
"Im core support base fit don diminish towards di end of im tenure, but significant number of di pipo wey believe in him still dey loyal to di very end," Senior Special Assistant Kakanda tok.
"Dat kind of loyalty dey rare, and e show di depth of di connection e bin get wit ordinary pipo."
But journalist Ibekwe believe say Buhari death no go leave political vacuum for northern Nigeria.
"Im supporters bin don always be for only him," e tok.
"Weneva e no stand for election, dem bin vote differently for oda pipo."
2027 elections
As di formidable figure for northern politics dey buried on Tuesday, many pipo dey ask how dis go affect di chances of im All Progressives Congress party for di 2027 general election.
Kakanda believen say im passing go spark power shift for di north.
"We dey likely to witness a transition toward a multipolar configuration. Power and influence for di North go now dey more fragmented, sake of diversity of sub-regional and ethnic actors rada dan one single dominant figure," e tok.
Concerns dey say President Tinubu fit struggle to consolidate im support for di north without Buhari clout.
Dose wey bin rely heavily on im popularity go now need to work extra hard to build dia own alliances and mend political fences.
Professor Aliyu say di coming election go see many politicians dey hustle to bicom di next "talakawa" for di north.
"Buhari death don pose big challenge for dose wey dey raise dia hands say dem wan lead di people, but for now, we neva see anybody wey go dey like him," e tok.
"Whoeva wan bicom di undisputed leader, dem suppose know say Buhari fame no be bicos of wealth. Moni fit buy fame and recognition. But na character, selflessness and service to pipo," e tok.
For Senior Special Assistant Kakanda, Buhari death go bring "more competitive" politics for di region.
"Di current generation for di North no longer dey reason dat illusion of political redeemer," e tok.
"Wetin lie ahead na recalibration, wia political actors must to earn loyalty not thru association wit one singular legacy, but thru di substance of dia vision and dia ability to meet di moment."
Additional reporting by Yusuf Akinpelu
