Latest news with #UncertaintyIndex
The Hill
4 days ago
- Business
- The Hill
Small-business optimism rises amid tariff uncertainty
Optimism among small businesses rose last month, with respondents reporting better business conditions, despite uncertainty around tariffs and inflation. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said on Tuesday that its Small Business Optimism Index went up 1.7 points in July to 100.3, just above the index's long-term average of 98. The factors that contributed to the rise of the index were respondents reporting better business conditions and arguing that it is a good time to expand. About 16 percent of respondents said it was a good time to expand their business, 5-point increase from June. The Uncertainty Index spiked by 8 points from June to 97. One-in-five small business, 21 percent, said that labor quality was the most important problem, increasing by 5 points from June. 'Optimism rose slightly in July with owners reporting more positive expectations on business conditions and expansion opportunities. While uncertainty is still high, the next six months will hopefully offer business owners more clarity, especially as owners see the results of Congress making the 20 percent Small Business Deduction permanent and the final shape of trade policy,' NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said in a statement. 'Meanwhile, labor quality has become the top issue on Main Street again,' Dunkelberg added. When discussing the overall health of their business, 52 percent said it was 'good,' 13 percent said it was 'excellent,' 4 percent said it was 'poor' and 31 percent said it was 'fair.' Around 11 percent of owners said that inflation was their most important problem in running their business. Some net 6 percent of owners are expecting higher real sales volumes.
Daily Maverick
06-08-2025
- Politics
- Daily Maverick
Loaded for Bear: As Anthropocene descends into the ‘Madocene' a ‘Madness Index' is in order
I propose that a Madness Index could supplement the Uncertainty Index. The global body politic is going right off its rocker, howling at the moon like some demented wolf on an acid trip. We are living in an age of 'great uncertainty', we are often told, and there is an entire conference industry now devoted to that subject. There are even indices to track uncertainty, with an excellent website devoted to that matter. Its main show is the Economic Policy Index (EPU), but there are other indices on the site, including the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index, the Monetary Policy Index and the Climate Policy Uncertainty Index. One unifying theme here is 'policy uncertainty'. But there is a root cause to all this uncertainty, and it is hiding in plain sight. It can be summed up in one word: madness. And I mean of the stark, raving, frothing-at-the-mouth, bug-eyed kind. The global body politic is going right off its rocker, howling at the moon like some demented wolf on an acid trip. Scientists speak of the current geological phase of the Earth's history as the Anthropocene, which speaks bluntly to humanity's impact on the environment. The Anthropocene can also be broken down into eras, and right now it is descending into the 'Madocene'. Just look at the utter insanity that is Trump 2.0. US Republicans are celebrating a massive tax hike on the middle class — which is what US President Donald Trump's tariffs are — and pretending they are something else against all evidence and the most basic grasp of economics or history. Denial of reality It's the denial of reality that is so troubling. I'm no shrink, but when you start denying what you see with your own eyes, I take it as a clinical sign of insanity. Trump and his 'policies' and politics are the most obvious manifestation of this insanity. The 6 January 2021 coup attempt at the US Capitol was a 'peaceful protest' by patriots attempting to nip a stolen election in the bud. Never mind that 174 police officers were injured, five people died as a result, and that there is no evidence of a rigged election. There's nothing to see here folks, and so we have Trump 2.0 — tariffs imposed on islands only inhabited by penguins, tariffs raised and lowered, tariffs today but not tomorrow — an endless cycle of madness and mayhem amid threats to annex Canada and Greenland. Part of Trump's base — the QAnon crowd — for years hyped the conspiracy theory that prominent Democrats were involved in a cabal of Satanic cannibalistic paedophiles. The files around notorious sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein — who reportedly killed himself in prison in 2019 — were a red rag for this lot. And suddenly there is nothing to see there! Even Trump's gullible base is not buying that, and so we now have a situation where the president of the US is losing political capital with one of his key crazy constituencies against the background of mounting suspicions — Trump and Epstein were pals — that he is in those files in a disturbing kind of way. The attempts to distract from all of this have included allegations that former US president Barack Obama committed treason because of his murky role in the 'Russiagate hoax' — which, as David Graham at The Atlantic notes, is not a hoax. We are in an age in which the US president — who spouts crazy stuff all the time — is trying to hide the spoor of his relationship with a paedophile who would make the Vatican blush by accusing a former president of treason — a crime that Trump himself demonstrably committed on 6 January 2021. Trump last week fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, claiming that the latest jobs data report was 'rigged' to make him look bad. Trump wants to manipulate the numbers and will probably appoint a minion to do so, which will undermine the credibility of crucial US data that moves global markets. The US president is also gunning for Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell because he has been reluctant to lower interest rates, in part because of the inflationary impact of Trump's tariffs. And he has said that nominees for the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee that sets US monetary policy will be litmus tested — if they won't lower rates, they won't get the job. For markets, this assault on central bank independence and statistical agencies in the world's most important economy is baie mal. We've also seen the denial of science on the vaccine and climate change fronts even as the fossil fuels uncorked by the Anthropocene continue to burn our planet. To sum up, Trump 2.0 is madness on steroids. And the zaniness does not end there. Russian President Vladimir Putin's three-day war in Ukraine is well into its third year with no end in sight, and no goal beyond paranoid delusions about Nato's borders — as if Latvia was a threat to Russia. North Korea remains a nuclear-armed madhouse, and the people of Gaza face genocide and starvation. I'm sure Trump still has the hope he floated a few months ago of turning the strip into a beachfront stripper zone. Can't let a little genocide and starvation get in the way of the new Ibiza! In Afghanistan, the Taliban are back baby, and those dudes are pretty bonkers. Meanwhile, here in the lovable loony bin called South Africa, the daily headlines are a reminder of our plunge off the deep end under a political mutant called the Government of National Unity. Just take Pieter-Louis Myburgh's takedown of the Independent Development Trust CEO and spokesperson after they offered him R60,000 in cash to quash a probe. That is, among other things, downright crazy. There are pockets of political sanity out there. Mark Carney, the prime minister of my native Canada, is a wooden central banker who speaks in complete sentences. How boringly sane! But there is lunacy galore out there. So I propose that a Madness Index could supplement the Uncertainty Index. I'm open to suggestions on this front. But I think it should perhaps be linked to, say, the price of gold, which has reached insane levels as it is an asset that thrives on madness. It could go something along these lines — a graph that since about 2016 has soared in an increasingly vertical fashion from 'Oupa had too much brandy' to 'wow, that's kind of nuts' to 'straight-jacket' levels and then 'batshit crazy'. Where it goes beyond there is worth pondering. Maybe the 'bat-excrement' phase could be a wide range that might peak in 30 to 50 years time. Or maybe the bat-excrement hitting the AI-powered fan could mark the next stage of this collective acid trip. From there, I guess we're off to Mars with Elon Musk. DM Letters will be edited.
Fibre2Fashion
10-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
US small business optimism steady amid mixed signals in June: NFIB
The Uunited States NFIB Small Business Optimism Index held steady in June, dipping by 0.2 points to 98.6, slightly above the 51-year average of 98. A significant rise in respondents reporting excess inventories was the primary factor behind the index's decline. The Uncertainty Index dropped by five points from May to 89. Nineteen per cent of small business owners cited taxes as their most pressing issue, marking an increase from May, and once again ranked as the top concern. The last time taxes reached 19 per cent was in July 2021, NFIB said in a press release. 'Small business optimism remained steady in June while uncertainty fell,' said Bill Dunkelberg , chief economist at NFIB . 'Taxes remain the top issue on Main Street, but many others are still concerned about labour quality and high labour costs.' The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in June declined slightly to 98.6, primarily due to concerns about inventory levels, with a net 5 per cent reporting stocks as 'too low'. Expectations for better business conditions and higher sales volumes fell. Labour quality remains a concern for 16 per cent of owners, while inflation pressures eased to 11 per cent. The June index showed a slight dip, with a net negative 5 per cent of business owners viewing their current inventory stocks as 'too low'. This marks a six-point decrease from May, signalling a net increase in inventories. In June, 7 per cent of owners reported inventories as 'too low', down from 8 per cent in May, while 12 per cent reported inventories as 'too high', up from 7 per cent in May. This shift in inventory concerns was the primary factor behind the decline in the Optimism Index. Business owners' expectations for better conditions dropped by three points, standing at a net 22 per cent, still above the 51-year average of 3 per cent. Similarly, expectations for higher real sales volumes fell by three points to a net 7 per cent. In terms of capital investment, 21 per cent of owners' plan capital outlays over the next six months, a slight decrease from May. Labour quality remains a key challenge for small businesses, with 16 per cent of owners citing it as their most important issue, unchanged from May. This marks a decline from April 2020, when labour quality complaints were lower. The percentage of small business owners reporting labour as their top concern aligns with other data suggesting a more tempered labour market across the economy. Inflation pressures appear to be easing, with 11 per cent of owners now citing higher input costs as their most important problem, down three points from May and the lowest level since September 2021. The overall health of small businesses has significantly deteriorated. The percentage of business owners rating their company as in 'excellent' or 'good' health fell, with 8 per cent reporting excellent health (down six points) and 49 per cent reporting good health (down six points). Conversely, 35 per cent rated their business health as fair (up seven points), while 7 per cent reported poor health (up three points). Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
Forbes
04-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Uncertainty Equals Confusion
If you approach an intersection and you don't know which way to turn to reach your destination, you are 'frozen' in place until an external event compels you to decide: left, right, straight, or reverse? That's how many small business owners feel today. NFIB's Uncertainty Index is based on six questions asked of a random sample of member firms for over 50 years. Since 1986, the Uncertainty Index has averaged 68. But, since 2016 it has averaged 80 and over the last eight months, the Index has reached 51 year-high levels, the highest level hitting 110 in October 2024. For individual owners, the Uncertainty measure is the number of 'uncertain' responses each owner gives to the six questions incorporated by the Index. For all firms, the Index is the sum of the percentages giving an uncertain response to each of the six questions. Interestingly, it appears that the level of uncertainty has increased steadily over the past 50 years. Why that has occurred is unclear, possibly related to the expanding reach of government at all levels. Uncertainty in the current period is undoubtedly related to the significant changes in domestic and international policies impacting the economy. And, trying to pass a tax bill that satisfies 535 elected officials in Congress is always an uncertain process. There is a lot to worry about. The level of uncertainty varies significantly by industry. Small business owners in the transportation industry most frequently registered high levels of uncertainty (4+). Some of this uncertainty is caused by high levels of regulation (e.g., California), tariffs, port uncertainty, and high fuel costs, to name a few. Firms in the manufacturing and services industries also expressed higher levels of uncertainty. Retail firms were least frequently found giving 3 or more uncertain responses, even with tariff uncertainty. They were more 'certain' about how they are or will be impacted. Uncertainty Level by Industry As Chart 2 shows, we are living in a period of elevated uncertainty, starting in 2016 with election issues and then again in the Covid era. Although the 'Covid panic' has passed, politics, elections, and swift policy changes in D.C. continue to stir the pot of concerns. NFIB's Optimism Index has been in recession territory for over a year, as have many traditional indicators. But, the recession stayed away. The future path may become clearer once the budget battle is done and tariff negotiations resolved. Uncertainty Index
Miami Herald
03-06-2025
- Automotive
- Miami Herald
Ford reports another blowout sales month, but trouble could be ahead
To the victor go the spoils is a popular refrain for contest winners to tell losers who complain after the match. The political version of this saying goes something like, elections have consequences. Over the past few months, President Donald Trump's supporters have used this phrase to defend his reformation edicts as he pursues the agenda on which he campaigned. Related: Ford files shocking $300 million RICO lawsuit For the business community, those consequences have hurt a bit. Trump's pursuit of a trade war has especially roiled small businesses, which lack the capital to maneuver their foreign supply chains the same way large companies can. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by another 1.6 points in April to 95.8. It was the second consecutive month the index ticked below its 51-year average of 98. Meanwhile, the NFIBs Uncertainty Index decreased slightly to 92, but it remains well ahead of its historical average of 68. So, uncertainty for small businesses is much higher than historical averages, and optimism is much lower. Meanwhile, large corporations are also suffering from the uncertainty, with the charts for the three major indices resembling a bitcoin price chart with all of the volatility and wild 500-point intraday swings. The trade war has been a short-term boon for many automakers as buyers look to snap up new vehicles before the taxes take effect. This is true for Ford F, but the Trump administration's policies also create a pain point for the Big 3 U.S. automaker. Ford released its May car sales report on Tuesday, June 3. The company reported a 16.3% increase in year-over-year May sales to 220,959. The increase was mainly driven by its biggest, most gas-guzzling models. Ford SUVs saw a 23% sales increase to 83,000, led by the Explorer, which had over 20,500 sold in the month. Meanwhile, Ford Trucks saw an 11.2% increase to 121,354 units sold. Overall, Ford has sold 930,925 vehicles to date, a 6.1% year-over-year increase, despite the specter of tariffs upsetting the whole apple cart. However, one area for the company that wasn't in the green was electric vehicle sales. Ford sold 25% fewer electric vehicles this month than last, accelerating a declining sales trend for a segment of the company's brand that had been experiencing growth. Related: Big 3 Auto CEO backs Trump tariffs despite huge costs Ford's safety recall of its E-Transit Chassis Cab vehicles due to a potential battery defect certainly didn't help sales during the period. E-Transit saw a 93% decline in sales in the month. The Ford F-150 Lightning electric model saw a 42% decline in sales to 1,902. Year to date, Lightning sales are down more than 17%. The Mustang Mach-E was the lone electric vehicle model to see sales growth, with an 11% increase to 4,274. In fact, the Mach E is inching towards overtaking its non-electric brother in sales. Mustang sales were down 3% in the month to just over 5000 sold. Even before President Donald Trump took office, Ford struggled with its EV segment. President Joe Biden and his Democrat predecessor saw climate change as an existential crisis and electric vehicles as a key to combatting that crisis. Obama initiated the $7,500 EV tax rebate during his term, and Biden expanded the program. More Ford news Ford CEO Jim Farley has strong take on tariffsFord makes a drastic decision in the face of tariff overhangFord CEO Jim Farley flags concerning behavior from new car buyers While it hasn't been a big subject for Trump this time around, he did call some of the rhetoric around climate change a hoax when he first ran for president back in 2015. But Ford already announced last year that its EV division would lose about $5 billion in 2024, and that was wth the full support of the White House. The $1.5 billion the unit lost in the third quarter alone was actually an 8% improvement year over year. The truth is, EVs just aren't as popular in the U.S. as they are in China and Europe. However, hybrid vehicles, which are mainly ICE engines with a small battery backup, are gaining in popularity. Ford hybrid sales increased nearly 30% to 22,719 vehicles in May. Year to date, hybrid sales are up more than 31%. Related: Ford loses its last cheap vehicle to tariffs The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.
