Latest news with #UnionGeneralElection
The National
20-05-2025
- Politics
- The National
Scotland can leave the Union, but only one route is viable
His 'practical and workable plan' to achieve independence is to 'provoke a constitutional crisis' by demanding, on the strength of a majority of seats at Holyrood, that London permits an indyref, and on refusal of that by seeking 'international support', having stated a manifesto intention to declare independence on the basis of 'parliamentary democracy' (ie a majority of seats). Unfortunately, that is neither practical nor workable. There is no authoritative forum from which to obtain international support anyway, and the only likely response from abroad to a Scotland pleading for help after having failed to win a majority vote, and having sent only nine of Scotland's 57 MPs as even nominal supporters of independence to the Union parliament, is derision. READ MORE: Scotland 'absorbed into England' by Acts of Union, says legal expert The one and only actually existing way for the people of Scotland to express an effective choice on whether the country should be independent is by means of a General Election made into a plebiscite by the appropriate manifesto. This is because the only other way, a referendum, is legally beyond Holyrood and London persistently refuses to allow one (a refusal, incidentally, which would bar London from complaining about the plebiscitary General Election, if it was minded to do so). Mr Howie offers three reasons to disparage this. 1) 'Any independence supporter who votes for a Unionist party is counted as a No voter.' That's because he is a No voter. 2) 'There is very little likelihood of a 50% Yes vote.' We'll see. If it should turn out that Scotland does not want independence, so be it. But a plebiscitary election is more akin to a referendum than a normal election. It will be down to campaigning, but for years now, one half of Scotland has consistently polled for independence. 3) 'The UK Government will not accept a Yes result.' READ MORE: UK anti-terrorism tsar in Scottish independence 'meddling' claim London has no choice. The legal effect of a General Election is the filling of seats. A head-count majority in a Union General Election would put an indy MP in virtually every Scottish seat, with a fully democratic mandate to take Scotland out of the Union. Those are Scotland's highest representatives, the modern equivalent of the body which took Scotland into it in the first place. London has always affirmed that Scotland can leave if it no longer consents to union, which merely states the actual legal and constitutional position, namely that there is no barrier to Scotland leaving if its people so wish. If there was any such barrier, London could never have made the Edinburgh Agreement, which it did by mere signature of the PM. And in the case of Northern Ireland, the UK has actually declared in legislation that the province can leave. Any suggestion that London can hold Scotland captive against its wishes is so preposterous and so monstrous as to be entirely unconscionable, and that is the view that London would also adopt if, but only if, Scotland ever actually made the decision. (A plebiscitary election at Holyrood can only be a dry run, so long as there is a minority of indy MPs on the Scottish seats at Westminster, but there might perhaps be some small hope that success even at Holyrood would bring London to the table.) The way forward is clear and simple, using the existing set-up, requiring no extra-legal steps, foreign intervention, or crisis. Our problem at the moment is that our only effective mechanism, the SNP, refuses to do the business, and as long as that applies, we are sunk. Ian Roberts via email
The National
07-05-2025
- Politics
- The National
How would a 2026 election win for the SNP translate into independence?
But let me pick up the one point in the letter which I think has to be put right. Mr McCormick says: 'The challenge for the SNP is to convince enough people that on receipt of a majority of the popular vote in 2026, the SNP will deliver independence. If they win, then a sanction is required to force the UK Government to negotiate the dissolution. That sanction must be that we dissolve the Union on 1/5/2027. No further referendum is required.' READ MORE: John Swinney pours cold water on SNP holding 'independence convention' Though there is no sign whatsoever that they will do so, the SNP could certainly issue a manifesto for Holyrood 2026 seeking a majority of the popular vote for Scottish independence, but how could they honestly promise to deliver independence on that majority? Suppose London declined to negotiate. How could the SNP dissolve the Union? By what step(s)? The party would have the democratic choice of the people of Scotland for independence, but the only body they would have would be their MSPs, albeit a majority of them. Holyrood would not be empowered to bring independence about by legislation. How would a declaration of independence by the majority of members be of any greater effect than such a declaration by the majority of community council members throughout the country (ie zero)? READ MORE: Independence 'on table' if Scotland elects Yes majority, Tories admit If Scottish independence is to be implemented by fiat, it must be the fiat of a body so empowered. The only body empowered to issue such a fiat would be the Scottish members of the Union parliament following a popular vote of the people, since they, and they alone, are the supreme representatives of the country (and the modern counterpart of those who took Scotland into the Union in the first place). The popular vote could be got either in a Union General Election or a Holyrood election. If in a Union General Election, the election itself would virtually fill the Scottish seats with indy people. Holyrood 2026 cannot do that, leaving the SNP with its paltry nine out of 57 (due entirely to SNP ineptitude on their manifesto at the last election, about which they were forewarned time after time). If that was to be the outcome, London could just sit back. How could Scottish independence actually come about? The people would have voted for it, but only in a subsidiary parliament, whereas a mere two years before they had elected indy members to less than one-sixth of their seats in the Union parliament, and in that election the SNP had neither sought a popular majority nor undertaken to make Scotland independent. And what would the rest of the world make of that? READ MORE: John Swinney: Indyref2 possible if SNP 'do really well' in 2026 I fail to see how independence could possibly emerge from such a fiasco. Remember, this is Scotland. We are not going to have a popular uprising. We are either going to step into independence judiciously or not at all. How on earth is it to happen, in the Holyrood scenario? The SNP should take Mr McCormick's advice, but should bill it as a dry-run, not making any empty threat to secede on the strength of the Holyrood vote, but affirming that if London declines to negotiate, it will bring about the real thing at the next Westminster General Election. Alan Crocket Motherwell
