How would a 2026 election win for the SNP translate into independence?
But let me pick up the one point in the letter which I think has to be put right. Mr McCormick says: 'The challenge for the SNP is to convince enough people that on receipt of a majority of the popular vote in 2026, the SNP will deliver independence. If they win, then a sanction is required to force the UK Government to negotiate the dissolution. That sanction must be that we dissolve the Union on 1/5/2027. No further referendum is required.'
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Though there is no sign whatsoever that they will do so, the SNP could certainly issue a manifesto for Holyrood 2026 seeking a majority of the popular vote for Scottish independence, but how could they honestly promise to deliver independence on that majority? Suppose London declined to negotiate. How could the SNP dissolve the Union? By what step(s)?
The party would have the democratic choice of the people of Scotland for independence, but the only body they would have would be their MSPs, albeit a majority of them. Holyrood would not be empowered to bring independence about by legislation. How would a declaration of independence by the majority of members be of any greater effect than such a declaration by the majority of community council members throughout the country (ie zero)?
READ MORE: Independence 'on table' if Scotland elects Yes majority, Tories admit
If Scottish independence is to be implemented by fiat, it must be the fiat of a body so empowered. The only body empowered to issue such a fiat would be the Scottish members of the Union parliament following a popular vote of the people, since they, and they alone, are the supreme representatives of the country (and the modern counterpart of those who took Scotland into the Union in the first place). The popular vote could be got either in a Union General Election or a Holyrood election. If in a Union General Election, the election itself would virtually fill the Scottish seats with indy people. Holyrood 2026 cannot do that, leaving the SNP with its paltry nine out of 57 (due entirely to SNP ineptitude on their manifesto at the last election, about which they were forewarned time after time).
If that was to be the outcome, London could just sit back. How could Scottish independence actually come about? The people would have voted for it, but only in a subsidiary parliament, whereas a mere two years before they had elected indy members to less than one-sixth of their seats in the Union parliament, and in that election the SNP had neither sought a popular majority nor undertaken to make Scotland independent. And what would the rest of the world make of that?
READ MORE: John Swinney: Indyref2 possible if SNP 'do really well' in 2026
I fail to see how independence could possibly emerge from such a fiasco. Remember, this is Scotland. We are not going to have a popular uprising. We are either going to step into independence judiciously or not at all. How on earth is it to happen, in the Holyrood scenario?
The SNP should take Mr McCormick's advice, but should bill it as a dry-run, not making any empty threat to secede on the strength of the Holyrood vote, but affirming that if London declines to negotiate, it will bring about the real thing at the next Westminster General Election.
Alan Crocket
Motherwell
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