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Yahoo
2 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Democrats probably can't win the redistricting wars
Republicans are kicking off a gerrymandering arms race that Democrats can't win, according to the analysis of most election watchers. The question now is whether Democrats can generate enough seats to give them a chance to retake the House in the future. With the return of most Texas Democrats, Republicans in the state are on the verge of delivering a new House map that would give their party another five seats that President Donald Trump would have comfortably carried in the 2024 election, and which Republicans are likely to win in the 2026 midterm elections. The move is part of a larger Republican plot to rewrite the rules concerning House apportionment and district drawing that's aimed at isolating the GOP's governing majority from the will of the voters. In the realm of redistricting, however, Democrats can potentially use the power they wield in states that they govern to give themselves more seats that they're likely to win in the 2026 midterm elections. These could serve to offset some of the gains Republicans are set to make through redistricting. The problem for Democrats is that, compared to the GOP, there are fewer opportunities to game the system. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Salon, 'Republicans are likely going to come out ahead if the re-redistricting wars escalate, but the question is how much.' Coleman said that, for simplicity's sake, he's assuming that California will be able to redistrict five Republicans out of office in the midterms, effectively canceling out the gain Republicans are set to make in Texas. However, he explained, Republicans are also looking to redraw their maps in Ohio, Florida, Indiana and Missouri, which could collectively give Republicans six or seven more seats in Congress. Republicans in Nebraska have also considered redistricting, potentially preventing Democrats from flipping an Omaha-area seat held by Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb.. Republicans could also potentially pick up a seat in New Hampshire, though they would have to overcome the opposition of Gov. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican who has voiced opposition. 'The Democrats' path to making up that possible six-to-seven-seat gap isn't very straightforward. Maryland Democrats could draw out Rep. Andy Harris (R), although they would probably need to clear their map with the state's highest court, which is full of Hogan appointees. Democrats could also try to squeeze another seat out of [Illinois], although that would take some creative line-drawing,' Coleman said in an email. Larry Hogan was the state's relatively moderate Republican governor from 2015 to 2023. The main problem for Democrats is that, in the states that provide them the best opportunity to gain seats through redistricting, they are constrained by state law. In New York, redistricting rules are set by a constitutional amendment that disallows mid-decade redistricting and partisan gerrymandering. While Democrats could re-amend the state constitution, they don't have time to do this before the midterms. In Colorado and Virginia, two states where Democrats could potentially gain seats through redistricting before the midterms, the process is also controlled by an independent commission. The same is true of New Jersey, Michigan and Washington. In Minnesota, a state with a Democratic majority in terms of popular vote, with an evenly divided House delegation, the political assassination of state Rep. Melissa Hortman earlier this year gave Republicans control of the state short, Republicans have a clear path to pick up between 11 or 12 seats, while Democrats don't have an obvious way to make up for those losses in states that they govern. In the context of the 2026 midterms, a dozen or so new Republican seats could be enough to insulate them from backlash to Trump and the Republican agenda. In some recent elections, swings in the House have been relatively small. In 2022, Republicans only netted nine seats in the midterms and in 2024, Democrats netted two seats. The gerrymandering likely wouldn't be able to save Republicans from a midterm election more akin to 2018, however, when Democrats stormed back into the House majority, netting 41 seats. Whether the 2026 midterms look more like 2022 or 2018, however, depends on how sentiments, redistricting and the rules around voting shift between now and November of next year. The post Democrats probably can't win the redistricting wars appeared first on
Yahoo
19-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump releases thousands of files on JFK assassination
The Trump administration on Tuesday released thousands of previously classified documents related to the assassination of former President John F. Kennedy. This follows an executive order made by President Donald Trump shortly after he took office directing the release of unredacted government files about Kennedy's killing. Kennedy was shot during a visit to Dallas, Texas in November 1963, but conspiracy theories still swirl around his death. More than 1,100 files containing more than 31,000 pages were posted on the National Archives website on Tuesday evening. Trump estimates that more than 80,000 new pages will be unsealed. In the past decades, authorities have already released ten of thousands of documents. Several JFK experts said they had teams already combing through the new material, and it would take time to assess the flood of files. "We have a lot of work to do for a long time to come, and people just have to accept that," Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics and author of "The Kennedy Half-Century," told the AP news agency. Kennedy's murder has been attributed to a sole gunman, Lee Harvey Oswald, a former Marine who defected to the Soviet Union before returning home to Texas. But polls show many Americans still believe his death was a result of a conspiracy. Edited by: Wesley Dockery
The Hill
15-02-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
Democrats see small wins in low-key races, fueling hopes for November
Democrats are already seeing some small victories in under-the-radar races in the beginning of 2025, with the party hoping they can maintain that energy heading into November as they look to flip the Virginia governor's mansion and hold off GOP opponents in other elections. The party flipped a state Senate seat in Iowa last month, while a Democrat recently ousted a conservative mayor in Norman, Okla. Meanwhile, in New York, Democrat Ken Jenkins won a county executive seat, improving on the party's November performance there. And last month, the Democrats retained their control over a Loudoun County, Va.-area state House and Senate seats after the party underperformed in November. The victories continue a trend the party has seen for multiple cycles in which it has won big in off-year elections where President Trump wasn't on the ballot. But some in the party argue more needs to be done in order to turn out voters ahead of the first major high-stakes races following Trump's victory in November. 'I would describe most of these races as simply Democrats holding serve, with the big exception of an Iowa state Senate race where Democrats flipped a district that Trump had won by roughly 20 points,' said Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. In the Westchester County executive race, Democrat Ken Jenkins handily defeated his Republican opponent 64 percent to 36 percent after President Trump improved his standing in the county from 2020 to 2024. Trump himself even got involved in the race, urging Republicans to turnout in a post on Truth Social earlier this week. 'On Tuesday, February 11th, there is an important Special Election for Westchester County Executive in New York! Democrats have made Westchester County a 'Sanctuary County' protecting criminal illegals!' Trump wrote. 'Republicans, Conservatives, and Common Sense Voters must GET OUT THE VOTE, and send a message to the Corrupt Democrats. No more protecting criminal aliens. VOTE REPUBLICAN!' Iowa state Sen. Mike Zimmer's (D) victory over his Republican opponent in the state's 35th state Senate district is seen as one of the most notable wins, given Trump's 21-point victory in that district in November. Zimmer won the seat by 3.5 points. Democrats also point to a recent victory in the race to fill the seat in Minnesota's 60th state Senate District, which was previously held by a Democrat. 'Data informs where our opportunities are and how we tell the story of the stakes in state legislatures,' said Heather Williams, the president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. 'We will continue to do that as these special elections pop up throughout this cycle, helping folks understand the strategic path and implications of each one of these.' Republicans are brushing off the notion that the special election results at the state and local level are revealing any clues about what to expect going into the next two election cycles. In Virginia, Republicans point to the already strong Democratic lean in the state's 32nd state Senate district and 26th state House district, where both Democrats prevailed. State Sen. Kannan Srinivasan (D) won the seat by just over 22 points two years after now-Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D) won it by just over 21 points. State Del. JJ Singh (D) won the 26th state House district by 23 points after Srinivasan won it by 22 points in 2023. Republicans also note their own special election victory in the state's 10th state Senate district, a reliably red seat. And when it comes to the state Senate seat flip in Iowa, Republicans point to the lower turnout in special elections, particularly in off election years. 'The fact that state Democrats are holding onto minor special election victories in districts they were expected to win highlights the current state of their party,' said Mason DiPalma, communications director at the Republican State Leadership Committee. 'They lack a substantial policy message for voters and instead rely on resistance to Trump and divisive identity politics.' 'While Democrats engage in soul-searching, we recognize that they are prepared to leverage their significant donor base to challenge state Republican majorities nationwide. We will invest the necessary resources to prevent that from happening as we continue to push back against the narrative of the progressive left,' he continued. Democrats also note that special elections should not necessarily be used as indicators of what to expect in an upcoming election cycle. 'Special elections are sort of a unique thing because they operate outside of the normal electorate, outside of the normal cadence of elections, and there's an ability for them to be maybe a little more responsive to the immediate environment that we're in,' Williams said. 'We are always learning lessons from these specials and of course we love it when we see Democratic overperformance particularly in a rural, Republican district,' she continued. 'One of these on their own doesn't completely shift our strategy or tell a story that is different from what we understand. It helps to inform it around the edges.' Still, the DLCC is touting its wins in the special elections and looking ahead to more coming up in Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Last week, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) set the special election for the state House District 40B. If Democrats win the solidly blue district, they will bring the state House chamber to a tie. However, if Republicans win it, they will also regain their first majority since 2018. 2024 Election Coverage Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, the 36th state House seat and 36th state Senate seat will be up for grabs on March 25. The state House seat was previously held by a Democrat, while the state Senate seat was previously held by a Republican. The special state House race will determine who controls the chamber, with the vacancy having left the chamber tied. One of the best indicators of what to expect in 2025 and 2026 may not be a special election at all. In April, two contenders from opposite sides of the ideological spectrum will square off in a race for a spot on Wisconsin's Supreme Court. The race in the reliable swing state is expected to be highly expensive and draw national attention. 'To me, the next big electoral test for Democrats is not a special election — it's the regularly scheduled April 1 Wisconsin state Supreme Court race that will decide control of that court,' Kondik said. 'It's not a special election, but it is one where turnout will be lower than a presidential, and it will be interesting to see if Democrats have a motivation edge.'
Yahoo
29-01-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump least popular newly elected president since Second World War
Donald Trump is the least popular newly elected president since the Second World War, with the exception of himself in 2017, according to a set of polls. Since taking office on Jan 20, the Republican has moved quickly to impose restrictions on immigration and scale back the size of the US government, efforts that have generally gone down well with the public. However, Americans have a dim view of some of Mr Trump's other executive orders, including his attempt to do away with so-called birthright citizenship and his decision to rename the Gulf of Mexico. According to poll aggregator 538, Mr Trump's initial approval rating is at +7 percentage points, lower than any other newly elected president since the Second World War. Only Mr Trump himself experienced a lower early approval rating, of +3.2, in 2017. By comparison, his predecessor Joe Biden had an approval rating of +21.8 in 2021, while Barack Obama enjoyed a score of +46.9 in 2009. John F Kennedy's approval rating sat at +66 following his election in 1960. Kyle Kondik, an analyst with the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said: 'While it does seem Trump is getting a honeymoon to some extent, his numbers are still not impressive by historical standards.' During Mr Trump's first term, his approval rating reached a high of 49 per cent in his first weeks in office. However, he closed out his stay in the White House with a 34 per cent approval rating, following the Jan 6 2021 assault on the US Capitol by some of his supporters. This time around, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed 45 per cent of Americans approve of Mr Trump's performance as president, down slightly from 47 per cent in a poll conducted on Jan 20 and 21. Mr Kondik said it may be too early to evaluate whether Mr Trump is squandering his political capital by focusing on issues where he is not aligned with the public. However, the poll shows that many of his early actions have been greeted warmly only by his hardcore base of supporters. Voters more generally remain deeply concerned about the high price of food, housing and other necessities, the survey found. Most Americans opposed ending the nation's longstanding practice of granting citizenship to children born in the US even if neither parent has legal immigration status, the poll found. Some 59 per cent of respondents – including 89 per cent of Democrats and 36 per cent of Republicans – said they were against ending birthright citizenship. A federal judge last week temporarily blocked the Trump administration from making the changes, but the White House has vowed to fight on. Meanwhile, 70 per cent of respondents said they opposed renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, an action Mr Trump ordered on his first day in office. Only 25 per cent of respondents supported the idea, with the rest unsure. Some 59 per cent of those surveyed, including 30 per cent of Republican voters, also said they were against Mr Trump's move to end federal efforts to promote the hiring of women and racial minorities. When asked specifically about Mr Trump's order to close all federal diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) offices, the respondents were more evenly divided, with 51 per cent opposed and 44 per cent in favour, largely along partisan lines. Credit: @Caolanmcaree / X Support for expanding fossil fuel drilling – another early policy change in the new administration – was highly concentrated in Mr Trump's party, with 76 per cent of Republicans backing the easing of drilling restrictions and 81 per cent of Democrats opposing it. Some 59 per cent of respondents said they were against the US pulling out of the Paris climate accords. Public views also split along partisan lines on billionaire businessman Elon Musk, one of Mr Trump's most prominent allies. While 75 per cent of Republicans in the survey said they had a favourable view of Musk, 90 per cent of Democrats had an unfavourable view. One possible source of concern for Mr Trump's political team could be the still overwhelming sense that rising prices remain untamed. Half of the poll respondents said the country was on the wrong track when it came to the cost of living, compared with 25 per cent who said it was moving in the right direction. The rest said they were not sure or did not answer the question. There were positive indicators for Mr Trump as well. Some 48 per cent said they approved of Mr Trump's approach to immigration, compared with 41 per cent who disapproved. The poll also showed Mr Trump as having significant levels of support for the hiring freeze he ordered at most federal offices, with 49 per cent backing the policy, including 80 per cent of Republicans and 43 per cent of Democrats. Mr Kondik said Mr Trump ultimately may be judged by the public on big-picture issues such as the economy and immigration, and that opposition to smaller-scale policy measures might not be too damaging. 'Trump was elected in large part because voters tended to side with him on the economy and immigration. To the extent he is viewed as doing positive things on that, it's probably good for him,' he said. But, Mr Kondik added, if voters in the coming months perceive Mr Trump's restrictions on immigration or his government downsizing efforts to be overly harsh, that could change. Mr Trump will not be on the ballot again, but any backlash could be felt by congressional Republicans running for re-election next year, he said. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, which was conducted online from Jan 24 to 26, surveyed 1,034 adults nationwide. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. 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Arab News
28-01-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
Americans sour on some of Trump's early moves, poll finds
WASHINGTON: Americans have a dim view of some of President Donald Trump's early barrage of executive orders, including his attempt to do away with so-called birthright citizenship and his decision to rename the Gulf of Mexico, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. Since taking office on Jan. 20, the Republican president has moved quickly to crack down on immigration and scale back the size of government, efforts that respondents to the three-day poll that closed on Sunday look on more favorably. Overall, the poll showed 45 percent of Americans approve of Trump's performance as president, down slightly from 47 percent in a Jan. 20-21 poll. The share who disapproved was slightly larger at 46 percent, an increase from 39 percent in the prior poll. The poll had a margin of error of about 4 percentage points. 'While it does seem Trump is getting a honeymoon to some extent, his numbers are still not impressive by historical standards,' said Kyle Kondik, an analyst with the University of Virginia Center for Politics. During Trump's first term, his approval rating hit as high as 49 percent during his first weeks in office but he closed out his term at 34 percent approval following the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the US Capitol. It may be too early to evaluate whether Trump is squandering his political capital by focusing on issues where he is not aligned with the public, Kondik said. But the poll shows that many of his early actions have been greeted warmly only by his hardcore base of supporters. Voters more generally remain deeply concerned about the high price of food, housing and other necessities, the poll found. Most Americans opposed ending the nation's longstanding practice of granting citizenship to children born in the US even if neither parent has legal immigration status, the poll found. Some 59 percent of respondents — including 89 percent of Democrats and 36 percent of Republicans — said they opposed ending birthright citizenship. A federal judge last week temporarily blocked the Trump administration from making changes to birthright citizenship, but the White House has vowed to fight on. Little support for 'Gulf of America' Seventy percent of respondents oppose renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, an action Trump ordered on his first day in office. Only 25 percent of respondents supported the idea, with the rest unsure. Some 59 percent of respondents, including 30 percent of Republicans, opposed Trump's moves to end federal efforts to promote the hiring of women and members of racial minority groups. When asked specifically about Trump's order to close all federal diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI, offices, respondents were more evenly divided, with 51 percent opposed and 44 percent in favor, largely along partisan lines. Support for expanding fossil fuel drilling — another early policy change in the new administration — was highly concentrated in Trump's party, with 76 percent of Republicans backing the easing of drilling restrictions and 81 percent of Democrats opposing it. Some 59 percent of respondents said they opposed the United States pulling out of the Paris climate accords. Public views also split along partisan lines for billionaire businessman Elon Musk, one of Trump's most prominent allies. While 75 percent of Republicans in the survey said they had a favorable view of Musk, 90 percent of Democrats said they had an unfavorable view. One possible source of concern for Trump's political team could be the still overwhelming sense that rising prices remain untamed. Some 50 percent of poll respondents said the country was on the wrong track when it came to the cost of living, compared to 25 percent who said it was moving in the right direction. The rest said they weren't sure or didn't answer the question. Support on immigration, hiring freeze There were positive indicators for Trump, as well. Some 48 percent Americans approve of Trump's approach on immigration, compared to 41 percent who disapprove. And the poll showed Trump having significant levels of support on the hiring freeze he ordered at most federal offices, with 49 percent of respondents backing a freeze, including 80 percent of Republicans and 43 percent of Democrats. Kondik said that Trump ultimately may be judged by the public on big-picture issues such as the economy and immigration and that opposition to smaller-scale policy measures may not be damaging. 'Trump was elected in large part because voters tended to side with him on the economy and immigration. To the extent he is viewed as doing positive things on that, it's probably good for him,' Kondik said. But, he added, if voters in the coming months perceive Trump's immigration crackdown or his government downsizing efforts to be overly harsh, that could change. Trump won't be on the ballot again, but the backlash could be felt by congressional Republicans running for re-election next year, he said. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, which was conducted online and nationwide over Jan. 24-26, surveyed 1,034 adults.
