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First Post
13-05-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Operation Sindoor: With battlefield edge, India cornered Pakistan to seek peace & that's new normal
Under Operation Sindoor, India maintained escalation dominance and never allowed Pakistan to respond, forcing it on the backfoot and making it seek peace. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has signalled that such an offensive will now be India's defence against terrorism. read more The medium-range Akash air defence system is in service with the Indian Army and Air Force. Image courtesy BEL US President Donald Trump might claim that he leveraged trade to bring India and Pakistan to a ceasefire, but the reality is that it was the Indian military campaign that forced Pakistan to seek a ceasefire — as Prime Minister Narendra Modi also said. Under Operation Sindoor, India maintained escalation dominance from the beginning, did not allow Pakistan to retaliate, and imposed costs so substantial while remaining beneath the nuclear threshold that even a leader as rabid as General Asim Munir sought a ceasefire. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD After the first round of Indian strikes on nine terrorist sites in the early hours of May 7, Pakistan rebuffed Indian outreach in false confidence. Three days later, after taking a beating across the spectrum, Pakistan reached out with a request for ceasefire. India hammered at least eight Pakistani airbases in addition to several air defence units and radar sites. The airbases struck included some of Pakistan's crown jewels, such as the Chaklala and Sargodha airbases. The Chaklala airbase is next door to the Pakistan Army headquarters in Rawalpindi — the true seat of power in the country. India also struck Lahore and took out the city's air defence system. India neither called Pakistan for a ceasefire nor gave it an off-ramp and maintained an upper hand throughout the conflict, says Yusuf Unjhawala, a scholar of geopolitics at the Takshashila Institution. Unjhawala tells Firstpost, 'India initially gave Pakistan a chance to de-escalate. As soon as Pakistan indicated its intention to not de-escalate, India struck Pakistan and kept striking until Pakistan reached out to seek a ceasefire. Pakistan could never respond to the first round of Indian strikes and was left confused with Indian strikes left, right, and centre and was reduced to playing catch-up. That was by design as India kept the heat on so much that Pakistan simply did not have any room to attack. India threw the final punches and came out on the top in the conflict.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD As Firstpost had previously reported, the Modi government had decided that there would not be any de-escalation from India's side and the ball of de-escalation lay in Pakistan's court. The government was firm that there would neither be any off-ramp to Pakistan nor any face-saving for Munir — and the government stayed true to these commitments until the end. India's calculated and continuous escalation achieved the desired outcome, says Unjhawala. India calls out Pakistan's nuclear bluff, forces Pakistan For more than two decades, the Kargil War was thought to be the last conventional conflict between India and Pakistan. Once Pakistan acquired nuclear weapons, its leaders started invoking them at every chance. Pakistan's development of lower-yield tactical weapons and the dominance of a jihadist military convinced many leaders and strategists that Pakistan had acquired the ultimate deterrent against conventional attacks from India. But that was until last week. As India struck every corner of Punjab, including the prized airbases housing top fighter planes, and reached as far as Karachi with precision strikes, India called out Pakistan's nuclear bluff. To be sure, Pakistan's cry for help to the international community included nuclear blackmail — the so-called 'alarming' intelligence received by the Donald Trump administration that made Vice President reach out to PM Modi is understood to be Pakistan's false claim about India going for its nuclear sites or nuclear chain of command. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD When Vance asked Modi to exercise restraint, Modi listened to him but told him that India would respond to Pakistan with more force and strength come what may — and it did. India kept hitting Pakistan and forced it into a corner. In an address to the nation, Modi called out Pakistan's nuclear bluff. 'India will not tolerate any nuclear blackmail. India will strike precisely and decisively at the terrorist hideouts developing under the cover of the nuclear blackmail,' said Modi in Hindi. Modi further referred to Pakistan playing foreign powers, like Vance, and how India did not allow such games to deter its response. 'Pakistan was pleading to the world to ease tensions. And after suffering heavy losses, Pakistan's army contacted our DGMO on the afternoon of 10th May. By then, we had destroyed the infrastructure of terrorism on a large scale,' said Modi. India proves combat capabilities — and draws lessons Under Operation Sindoor, India struck a host of targets across Pakistan with precision. India cratered runways, hit aircraft hangars, terrorist infrastructure, radar sites, air defence units, and established combat superiority. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Unjhawala, the geopolitics specialist at Takshashila, says that India gained immense insights into Chinese military systems in the conflict with Pakistan, which will help the country in confrontation with China. 'Around 80 per cent of the Pakistani military's equipment is of Chinese origin, ranging from missiles and fighter planes to air defence systems. Pakistan used all of them against India and India successfully dealt with all of them. The greatest successes are the destruction of the Chinese HQ-9 air defence system and missiles mounted on JF-17s,' says Unjhawala. Learnings from the conflict would undeniably be put to use soon. As Pakistan's perpetual war on India is driven by a self-consuming jihadist national ideology, it is not possible to impose permanent restraint. What is possible is to impose costs so high that the frequency of misadventures is minimised — and that is what India has done. 'The Balakot airstrike brought India six years of deterrence. Operation Sindoor should also bring many years of restraint. But Pakistan will attack again and India should be prepared. The preparation has to start now. The first step should be to raise the defence budget, hopefully to 4 per cent. Then, India should smoothen the procurement process and go heavy on indigenisation,' says Unjhawala. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD As India denies him face-saving, Munir stands weaker than ever Munir, otherwise the strongest man in Pakistan, stands weaker than ever. With the Pahalgam attack and the response to Indian strikes on May 7, he overplayed his hand and now finds himself in a corner. 'While Munir's position was already untenable, it is now weaker than ever. We are not used to seeing the Pakistani Army this week,' says Unjhawala. One of the reasons behind Munir greenlighting the Pahalgam attack was to enter into a conflict with India and restore the military's primacy inside Pakistan. Now that Pakistan stands as a loser in the conflict, Munir has neither received a victory nor a face-saving exit. It remains to be seen how long Munir would be able to rely on a pliant media and rally-around-the-flag effect. As Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif declared victory over India, victory parades have been reported in the country. But, when stories of continued bombardment and images of devastated airbases, trickle to the public, would the propaganda still hold? As Pakistani generals attended funerals of terrorists, the entire world saw what India had been saying for years — there is no difference between the Pakistani military and terrorists. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD With Operation Sindoor and the speech laying down the 'Modi Doctrine', the prime minister has promised a new normal regarding terrorism and Pakistan — one and the same thing for most Indians. Under the Modi Doctrine, Operation Sindoor will serve as a benchmark for response to a terrorist attack, terrorists and governments sponsoring them will not be differentiated, and nuclear blackwill will not be tolerated. Unjhawala says, 'Now that the government has set a new normal, it has to live up to it. It is yet to be seen whether attacks on soldiers would also have a response like Operation Sindoor.'
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First Post
09-05-2025
- Politics
- First Post
Operation Sindoor: India to maintain escalation dominance, de-escalation rests on Pakistan
Under Operation Sindoor that is now in its third day, India will keep the escalation dominance and maintain that de-escalation rests on Pakistan. India will ensure that the cost imposed on Pakistan will be greater than whatever cost Pakistan would try to impose on India. read more Pakistan's senior military and civil officials, along with residents, attend the funeral of a person killed in Indian airstrike on a terrorist site in Punjab province's Muridke on May 7, 2025. (Photo: AFP) Under Operation Sindoor that is now in its third day, India will keep the escalation dominance and maintain that de-escalation rests on Pakistan. After Pakistan attacked northern and western India with drones and missiles on Thursday, India responded forcefully and the two sides exchanged fire throughout the night. The Pakistani barrage had come after India struck Pakistani air defence systems earlier in the day in response to Pakistani attempted attacks on 15 Indian cities the previous night. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD While India started Operation Sindoor with restraint, India has turned up the heat gradually as Pakistan has refused to mend its way. While India targeted only terrorist sites in the early hours of Wednesday, Pakistan sought to attack Indian military and civilian targets on Wednesday night — including the holy city of Amritsar. It appears that Pakistan assessed that India would go for a muted response and opt for de-escalation. That turned out to be a gross miscalculation. In the morning, India responded by hammering Lahore and destroying the Pakistani Army's coveted air defence system in the beating heart of Pakistan's political power — after all Pakistan is Punjab and Punjab is Pakistan. India's message is clear that India will keep turning the heat up, offer Pakistan no off-ramp, and force it to de-escalate, says Yusuf Unjhawala, a scholar of geopolitics at the Takshashila Institution. 'From its end, India will not de-escalate. The ball to de-escalate is in Pakistan's court as it is the country's actions that have led India to initiate Operation Sindoor. The ideal choice for Pakistan would be to de-escalate after last night's losses. If Pakistan chooses to respond, India would undo the restraint quicker than expected,' says Unjhawala. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar made it clear with his remarks. After a call with his Italian counterpart, Antonio Tajani, he said that India has had a 'targeted and measured response' so far but 'any escalation will see a strong response'. India to keep heat on, ball to in Pakistan Among the many uncertainties of ongoing hostilities, one thing is certain: India will not stand down. It is understood that India will not just keep the heat on with continued escalation dominance, India will also set the case for the nature of escalation — if escalation is forced by Pakistan's continued misadventures. It is understood that one of the fundamental ideas driving the Indian thinking in the ongoing conflict is that the costs that India imposes on Pakistan will be greater than whatever cost Pakistan would try to impose on India. For an unsuccessful strike on Amritsar, India struck Lahore — the seat of Pakistan's political power. For unsuccessful strikes on Indian military stations, India destroyed Pakistan's prized China-made HQ-9 air defence system. As Pakistan's perpetual war on India is driven by a self-consuming jihadist national ideology, the only way to reduce the frequency of its jihadist misadventures is to impose costs such that misadventures are minimised. To be sure, for an artificial nation created from scratch with the sole idea of opposing India, 100 per cent deterrence is not possible, but imposing severe costs will minimise misadventures and ensure yearslong deterrence. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD ALSO READ: Operation Sindoor: 'As jihad drives Pakistan, India can only impose costs — deterrence is impossible' Unjhawala, the geopolitics scholar at Takshashila, tells Firstpost that it's incorrect that the Balakot airstrike did not bring any deterrence. 'The Balakot airstrike ensured that Pakistan did not do anything like that for six years when many thought it would attempt something spectacular after Article 370's abrogation. India is looking to put in place years of deterrence with the current episode as well. India should tell Pakistan that such strikes would be a norm even if five or ten people are killed. India should set a new normal,' says Unjhawala. The way India struck Pakistan yesterday speaks for itself and should deter its leaders, says Unjhawala. 'If striking Lahore, the heart of the country; Islamabad, the capital; and Rawalpindi, the seat of the almighty military; would not prove to be enough, and Pakistan would still attempt something, Indian response would be a notch higher. India will likely bring the navy into action. So far, India has controlled the escalation ladder and there is no indication that India intends to de-escalate or offer Pakistan a face-saving off-ramp and rightly so,' says Unjhawala. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD India gains insights into China's weapons The hammering of Pakistan also brings India into Chinese weapons and military systems. With the destruction of Pakistan's China-made air defence systems and interception of Chinese missiles and fighter planes, India has also gained insights into Chinese air defence systems and missiles that Pakistan uses. Insights into Chinese systems will improve India's position regarding China as well. 'With the reports of India taking out air defences, and reportedly its HQ-9 system which is a long-range surface-to-air missile system of China, China will be very concerned that India was able to strike it down because similar missile systems have been deployed on the northern border with us. Also, in today's press conference, they said that they took out an air defence system in last night's action. That will be the Chinese system,' says Unjhawala.
