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Euronews
05-08-2025
- Politics
- Euronews
The two faces of Ursula: Reinvention or deception at the EU's helm?
In December 2019 Ursula von der Leyen returned to Brussels, the city where she spent her childhood, with the poise of a self-assured centrist and the promise of a visionary. The Green Deal stood at the centre of her first presidency, offering climate hope and a surprisingly collaborative touch, flanked by the liberal Danish Executive Vice-President Margrethe Vestager and Frans Timmermans, the socialist Dutchman - co-stars in her ensemble cast. That was Season 1. But as Season 2 gets underway, followers of her first term might be wondering if they're still watching the same show. Or at least asking if the lead character has been switched and a doppelganger has taken the helm. So what's happened - is Ursula von der Leyen suffering an identity crisis, or simply channelling her inner political shapeshifter? Different style, different priorities The new Ursula appears to be a pragmatic political realist, even Machiavellian. A significant part of this shift toward centralisation can be attributed to her powerful chief of staff, Bjoern Seibert, an adept puppet master skilfully pulling the strings of power within the Berlaymont building. During Season 1, maverick Commissioners such as France's Thierry Breton and Luxembourg's Nicolas Schmit developed as characters critical of von der Leyen's decisions. This has now disappeared from the script, and Ursula's gone from ensemble lead to solo act. Most importantly, they've been replaced with lower-profile allies who are kept in the dark on key decisions - most notably during the unveiling of the EU's long-term budget, when Commissioners reportedly saw the figures only moments before the official curtain raise on the proposal. Core priorities have seemingly vanished. There's an air of political amnesia, or perhaps strategic dissociation, where past commitments are forgotten or discarded. But what are Ursula von der Leyen's true colours? Is she still the 'Green Queen' of 2019, or has she transformed into the grey, power-consolidating 'VDL'? The curious case of the vanishing Green Deal Let's rewind to 2019, when von der Leyen made the Green Deal the crown jewel of her presidency. Back then, 'green' wasn't just a policy, it was a vibe. The Green Deal was supposed to transform Europe's economy, its agriculture and transport. Fast forward to today: the vibe's off. Her environmental mission seems increasingly distant, if not altogether abandoned. Today, the Green Deal is conspicuously absent, not just from rhetoric, but also from official documents. In the new long-term EU budget proposal, for instance, the term isn't mentioned once. Many of its pillars are being dismantled piece by piece. The most glaring example is the systematic rollback of Green Deal initiatives - such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism - through so-called "Omnibus" simplification proposals, with the latest retreat involving the proposed Green Claims Directive—meant to combat greenwashing. More symbolic is the disappearance of the "Farm to Fork" strategy, once the farming side of the Green Deal, which has all but vanished from speeches, policy documents, and public messaging. Its omission from the Commission's long-awaited 'Vision for Agriculture and Food' was effectively a quiet burial, making the document less of a vision and more a eulogy. Officially, the Commission remains in denial, but the signs of abandonment are impossible to ignore. Europe's Beating Cancer Plan - missing a beat? Green isn't the only colour fading from von der Leyen's palette, telling a story of a shifting focus. Over in the health file, there's a quiet code blue, with a key dossier on life support. In her first term, von der Leyen championed the European Health Union, with the Beating Cancer Plan as a cornerstone. With €4 billion on the table, the Commission pledged a full-frontal assault on tobacco, alcohol, asbestos, and other risk factors for cancer. But momentum has slowed dramatically. Measures targeting tobacco and alcohol reduction have stalled, and once-prioritised regulations (such as those governing sunbed usage) have been quietly dropped. The new EU4Health budget reflects this decline. In 2024, €115 million was allocated specifically for cancer. In 2025, this has been slashed to €60 million, now also covering not just cancer but also cardiovascular disease and other non-communicable illnesses. With attention diverted to pandemic preparedness and other priorities, it's unclear how much of the original vision will survive. And with more open files than open funding lines, Brussels insiders are asking: is health promotion and the fight against cancer being reassigned to sleepy interns and relegated to just a historical footnote? Back to her roots: Defence and military power And yet, amid the abandonment of green and health priorities, von der Leyen appears more energised than ever, but on a different front: defence. A year into her second term, the former German defence minister has returned to familiar territory. With the Green Deal receding, she has seized the geopolitical moment to promote a stronger European defence industry. With her former life as Germany's defence minister back in vogue (and with Frans Timmermans no longer breathing green fire down her neck), von der Leyen has pivoted hard to European defence. An example: the EU's upcoming budget cycle (starting in 2028) proposes a fivefold increase in defence and space funding. National budgets on defence are also rising, spurred by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Her Commission has also recently proposed structural changes: redirecting cohesion funds to defence, relaxing fiscal rules to allow greater military spending, launching the European Competitiveness Fund (ECF), and offering low-interest loans under the SAFE scheme. There's also an emphasis on simplifying defence procurement rules and boosting joint R&D initiatives. Still to come: a military mobility package aimed at streamlining troop and equipment movement, and the unveiling of plans for a true "European Defence Union". With the US increasingly focused on the Indo-Pacific, the EU faces a test: can it become a credible security actor within NATO? And will von der Leyen's defence push bear fruit in time to deter potential threats—particularly from Russia—by 2030? The verdict: the jury's still out... From Green Deal visionary to defence strategist, von der Leyen's transformation has raised eyebrows across Brussels and beyond, leaving many confused. The contrast between the two mandates could not be starker. So, who is the real Ursula von der Leyen? Is she the eco-champion who once promised to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent? Or the iron-fisted strategist consolidating power and refocusing on geopolitical muscle? Perhaps both. Perhaps only one of them ever truly existed. Or maybe neither. What's clear is that the second mandate is not just more of the same: It's a whole new season and a new cast. With the same protagonist wearing the same blazer but with different habits and a different mind. As Brussels braces for the next plot twist, especially with US tariffs and budget wrangling, one thing's for sure: Ursula von der Leyen is playing a different game. And the rest of Europe? Still trying to figure out if this is a character arc... or a complete reboot.
Indian Express
16-07-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
Hindustan Zinc: Fundamentals intact, but is the stock worth the risk?
A flurry of developments at Vedanta Group's crown jewel, Hindustan Zinc, has left investors and analysts divided. Over the past 16 months, this traditionally low-volatility stock has seen a rollercoaster ride. On the global front, Trump tariffs and geopolitical tensions have increased silver and zinc prices. On the domestic front, infrastructure development has boosted demand for zinc. On the operations front, the company is firing all smelters, running at 93% capacity, and breaking production records. Hindustan Zinc reported its second-highest revenue and net profit in FY25, following a record year in FY23. Despite this, its stock price has dipped 46% from its all-time high of Rs 807.70 on 22 May 2024. The stock underperformed the Nifty Metal Index, rising 132% in 5 years as against the 347% rally in the Index. 5-Year Stock Price Momentum of Hindustan Zinc and Nifty Metal Index Hindustan Zinc is among the top five silver producers in the world, and the only company that produces silver from primary sources. But its stock reported tepid growth even when silver prices reached a new lifetime high of over Rs 1.15 lakh per kg on July 14. What is preventing the stock from rallying? At the heart of investors' concerns is Hindustan Zinc's ownership structure. UK-based Vedanta Resources (VRL) holds a 56.38% stake in Vedanta Ltd (VDL). VDL holds a 63.42% stake in Hindustan Zinc. VRL has been deleveraging its balance sheet, which accumulated debt over the years from several failed acquisitions. Hindustan Zinc became the crown jewel of VDL as it was debt-free and had strong cash reserves. In May 2024, VDL's subsidiary Vedanta Semiconductors raised Rs 1,804 crore in secured debt from private creditors by pledging Hindustan Zinc shares. Vedanta Semiconductors gave a two-year unsecured inter-corporate loan to VDL, which the latter used to repay debt and pay brand fees to its holding company, VRL. Multiple such transactions shifted VRL's loan to VDL. In FY23, metal stocks had a fantastic year with a cyclical rally and robust profits. As the largest shareholder, VDL has the power to decide the dividend amount of Hindustan Zinc. VDL decided to use the money locked in Hindustan Zinc's reserves by issuing dividends. Hindustan Zinc's Dividends, Reserves, and Borrowings (FY 21-FY25) In FY23, Hindustan Zinc paid Rs 31,901 crore in dividends alone, which reduced its reserves by 64% to Rs 12,097 crore. These reserves are used to fund growth projects and give long-term returns to shareholders. VDL, as a shareholder, had the right to claim the reserves. But this reduced the company's capacity to self-fund expansion. Hindustan Zinc had to borrow money to meet its capital expenditure requirements. FY23 dividend converted the net cash company into a net debt company. While its debt-to-equity ratio remains below 1.0, the loss of reserves has weakened its balance sheet. Significant debt is a concern for metals and mining companies. They sell their output on the commodity prices, which are determined by market forces. They can only control the cost of production (CoP). Keeping debt low helps the company sustain a period of low prices and stay profitable. So far, Hindustan Zinc's debt is sustainable as the high price of zinc and silver and low CoP have increased the company's profits and operating cash flow. However, Hindustan Zinc's share price has declined, at least partly, due to a decrease in equity reserves over the last three years. Hindustan Zinc's Book Value Per Share From August 2020 to April 2025 Hindustan Zinc's promoters have been offloading stake after halving the reserve. Amidst this, Hindustan Zinc CEO Arun Misra's proposal to demerge the zinc and silver business was rejected by the Ministry of Mines. Misra, however, believes that demerging the precious metals segment will be value accretive, as Hindustan Zinc is India's only listed silver producer. This restructuring and reduction of reserves have limited the stock's upside potential. Hindustan Zinc is the second-largest integrated zinc manufacturer in the world. It has one of the lowest CoP at $1,055 per tonne (in FY25). As commodities are bought and sold in dollars, a strengthening of the dollar increases rupee cash flow. All three factors — higher commodity prices, depreciating rupee, and lower CoP — were in Hindustan Zinc's favour, which helped it report an Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) margin of 51% in FY25. Factors Affecting Hindustan Zinc's EBITDA Its revenue surged 18%, EBITDA 28%, and profit after tax 33% in FY25. It reported its second-highest free cash flow before capital expenditure (capex) of Rs 13,784 crore. Hindustan Zinc is growing its production by 3-4% annually through operational improvements, which it believes could generate Rs 50,000 crore free cash flow pre-capex in five years. It now aims to double its production capacity from 1.13 million tons per annum (mmtpa) to 2 mmtpa in the long term as steel demand increases. It announced the first phase of this expansion, under which it will add 250,000 mtpa capacity over the next three years. Hindustan Zinc is basing its expansion on India's ambitious plan to achieve 300 mmtpa of steel production in the next 2-3 years. It expects the phase 1 expansion of Rs 12,000 crore to generate Rs 40,000 crore revenue and Rs 21,000 crore EBITDA. Hindustan Zinc's Earnings Expectations from Phase 1 Expansion Source: Hindustan Zinc Q4FY25 earnings With a Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) of 58%, growth capex should be welcome news. Capacity expansion could lead to higher EBITDA and free cash flow, helping it service debt and rebuild equity reserves, thereby increasing its enterprise value. The capacity expansion is projected to increase Hindustan Zinc's capacity to produce silver. At 1.2 mmtpa, the company produces 750 tons of silver. If the company reaches 2 mmtpa capacity, it could produce 1,200-1,300 tons of silver. The company is also implementing innovative technology at one smelter, which, if successful, could recover an additional 27 mtpa of silver and 6,000 mtpa of lead from the smelter waste without burning. The increasing mix of precious metals could help the company boost profits. These long-term growth drivers are being offset by short-term uncertainty around dividend policies and the parent company's demerger and deleveraging. Analysts have mixed ratings on Hindustan Zinc. JM Financial is bullish on Hindustan Zinc for its low CoP, high-grade, long-life captive mines, and its ability to scale. Even Motilal Oswal is optimistic about the zinc producer's expansion plans, but believes that the market has already priced in the positives. Analyst Ratings on Hindustan Zinc Source: Brokerage Reports Nuvama has a 'Reduce' call on Hindustan Zinc. It stated that expansion will facilitate long-term growth, but commodity prices could affect near-term earnings, making the stock's valuation expensive till then. The miner's valuation is determined by enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA). While the capacity expansion and cost efficiencies are growing its EBITDA, high dividend payouts, which result in lower cash, and therefore higher debt, are potentially impacting overall valuations. The company's current EV/EBITDA is 10.7x, higher than its 5-year median of 9.0x, and double that of Vedanta's 5.65x. Adding to the volatility, US-based Viceroy Research took a short position against VRL's debt, alleging that the Vedanta Group is on the 'brink of insolvency.' Vedanta Group has denied the claims, calling them a 'malicious combination of selective misinformation and baseless allegations to discredit the group'. This controversy could keep Hindustan Zinc's share price volatile in the short term. However, Hindustan Zinc's strategic capital discipline, strong fundamentals, leaner cost base, and leadership in the fourth most widely used metal (zinc) make it a resilient stock that could continue paying dividends. Note: We have relied on data from throughout this article. Only in cases where the data was not available, have we used an alternate, but widely used and accepted source of information. Puja Tayal is a financial writer with over 17 years of experience in the field of fundamental research. Disclosure: The writer and his dependents do not hold the stocks discussed in this article. The website managers, its employee(s), and contributors/writers/authors of articles have or may have an outstanding buy or sell position or holding in the securities, options on securities or other related investments of issuers and/or companies discussed therein. The content of the articles and the interpretation of data are solely the personal views of the contributors/ writers/authors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific objectives, resources and only after consulting such independent advisors as may be necessary.
Mint
11-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Vedanta: JP Morgan remains ‘overweight', says don't get distracted, sees no major credit red flags
Global brokerage house JP Morgan has reaffirmed its Overweight rating on Vedanta Resources Ltd (VRL), the parent company of Vedanta and its associated bonds, despite recent concerns raised by a third-party report regarding the company's governance and financial management. The brokerage said that while questions have been raised around the structure and practices of Vedanta Ltd (VDL) and its subsidiaries, its own analysis points to sound leverage metrics and robust government oversight, particularly concerning Hindustan Zinc Ltd (HZL). JP Morgan noted that the third-party report expressed apprehensions about governance and financial practices at VRL, VDL, and their subsidiaries. However, the brokerage said it continues to remain comfortable with VDL's financial profile. It highlighted that the operating company's net leverage, excluding its stake in HZL, remains healthy. 'VDL (ex-HZL) reported EBITDA of USD 3.1 billion in FY25 and net leverage of 2.2x, which does not suggest financial stress,' JP Morgan said in its latest report. It added that for HZL alone, net leverage is extremely low at 0.1x and could rise only moderately to 0.5x in the near term due to planned capital expenditure. Regarding government oversight, JP Morgan said the Government of India continues to maintain an active presence on HZL's board with three directors since its divestment in the early 2000s. 'These government-nominated directors have previously intervened in transactions not aligned with HZL's interests. Hence, we believe government oversight continues to be effective, especially concerning capex planning,' JP Morgan added. On the subject of tax disputes, JP Morgan pointed out that HZL has tax and other claims totaling around ₹ 15,150 crore currently under litigation, but these are not recognized as liabilities. 'Such litigation is fairly common in highly regulated sectors like mining, and other peers such as JSW Steel have reported similar disputes,' JP Morgan noted, implying that these legal proceedings are not unique or alarming in isolation. Addressing past disclosures about a put/call option between the Government of India and VDL, JP Morgan stated that these were contingent on the completion of a specific smelter project by 2007. Although the plant was completed at a different location, JP Morgan believes the government has been adequately informed. 'We would be surprised if any breach had gone unnoticed over the past 20 years,' it said, suggesting the issue is likely behind the company. JP Morgan also said it continues to see Vedanta's international bonds (VEDLN) as attractively priced within the Asian and emerging market metals and mining segments. It highlighted healthy EBITDA generation (~USD 5 billion run-rate), improved funding access (including USD 1 billion raised via bank loans in FY26), and attractive yields in the 8–10 percent range. 'We prefer VEDLN '29s and '31s along the curve but remain Neutral on '33s,' the brokerage noted. VEDLN '29s were offered at 102.3 with a 10 percent yield-to-worst (YTW), while '31s were at 103.4 with a 10.2 percent YTW. JP Morgan identified key upside triggers, including sustained strength in commodity prices, further deleveraging efforts, and potential asset sales or equity raises. However, it also listed risks such as a greater-than-expected decline in commodity prices, large-scale M&A or capex exceeding USD 500 million–1 billion, tightening domestic banking conditions leading to higher interest expenses, and possible regulatory investigations or scrutiny. American short-seller Viceroy Research has accused the Vedanta Group of financial misconduct and governance lapses, according to a Mint report. Viceroy alleged that Vedanta Resources siphoned cash from its listed arm, Vedanta Ltd, through unjustified brand fees—even from subsidiaries like Hindustan Zinc and ESL Steel that barely use the Vedanta brand. In FY25 alone, non-core subsidiaries paid $361.3 million in brand fees, the report said. Over the past four years, Vedanta Ltd has paid a total of $1.16 billion to Vedanta Resources under branding and strategic services, Viceroy claimed. Vedanta called the short-seller's report a malicious combination of selective misinformation and baseless allegations to discredit the group. The stock lost over 3 percent in the last 1 year. Moreover, it has been flat, down a little over a percent in 2025 YTD giving positive returns in just 3 of the 7 months so far. It has lost 5 percent in July till now after an around 6 percent rise in June and 4 percent in May. It had hit its 52-week high of ₹ 527 in December 2024 and its 52-week low of ₹ 362.20 in April 2025. Despite external concerns, JP Morgan remains confident in Vedanta's core credit profile and operational leverage. While acknowledging risks tied to governance and potential litigation, the brokerage believes current bond valuations already factor in these headwinds, presenting investors with an appealing risk-reward proposition. It continues to maintain an Overweight stance on VEDLN '28s, '29s, '30s, and '31s, underlining Vedanta's resilience amid sector volatility and financial scrutiny. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Time of India
11-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Vedanta Resources dollar bonds see minor uptick
The brokerage, in its report to debt investors, said that VDL (excluding HZL) reported Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) of $3.1 billion in FY25 with a manageable net leverage of 2.2x. Vedanta Resources' US dollar bonds saw a slight recovery on Thursday after a previous dip triggered by Viceroy Research's report raising debt sustainability concerns. Despite Viceroy's accusations of a "ponzi scheme," JPMorgan and Bank of America countered, stating that Vedanta's financial stress appeared limited. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Mumbai: US dollar bonds of London-based Vedanta Resources (VRL), the holding company of metals conglomerate Vedanta, recovered marginally on Thursday, a day after falling as much as 1 to 1.5 points in response to US short-seller Viceroy Research 's bearish report that reignited concerns of unsustainable Thursday, the bonds gained across maturities from 2028 to 2033, according to traders. Analysts said the report failed to offer any new insights to investors and simply reiterated well-known concerns in an aggressive Viceroy accused the debt-heavy parent of listed Vedanta of operating a "ponzi scheme," claiming it survives by siphoning cash from its "dying host," both JPMorgan and Bank of America pushed said in a note after Viceroy published its findings that it saw limited financial stress at Vedanta (VDL) after excluding Hindustan Zinc (HZL), the group's key cash brokerage, in its report to debt investors, said that VDL (excluding HZL) reported Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) of $3.1 billion in FY25 with a manageable net leverage of 2.2x."We struggle to see financial stress at VDL with these metrics," the report Bank of America (BofA) in a note shared with investors said that the short-seller report on Vedanta Resources does not reveal much new. Most issues raised like the company relying on dividends and brand fees to pay its debt, or frequent leadership changes, are already known.
CNA
02-06-2025
- Business
- CNA
Dutch equipment-maker VDL Group to hire 400 new staff in Singapore over five years
VDL Enabling Technologies Group — a Dutch firm that supplies key equipment parts to major semiconductor players — plans to hire 400 new staff in areas such as advanced manufacturing and supply chain management at its expanded Singapore facility over the next five years. It will also pump in S$100 million to grow its Singapore operations. With more space in its new building, it can produce 30% more, and aims to reach S$1 billion in revenue in the next few years. According to the Economic Development Board, Singapore's semiconductor sector makes up about 7% of its GDP and employs some 35,000 people. Nasyrah Rohim reports.
