Latest news with #VIX
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Tariffs, turmoil, and the VIX: How April 2025 compares to past crises?
-- The surge in market volatility during April's tariff-driven panic may have felt extreme, but according to OptionMetrics, it pales in comparison to previous financial crises, at least by the numbers. 'The VIX exploded to a high of 60.13 on April 7th,' OptionMetrics analyst Brett Friedman wrote, 'a level not seen since the pandemic or the 2008 financial crisis.' Yet when measured against past crises, the 2025 tariff panic proved less severe. The firm notes that the VIX peaked at 80.16 during the 2008 crisis and 82.69 during the 2020 pandemic. What made April stand out was speed, according to OptionMetrics. 'It took only five days for the VIX to peak, and another 14 days to revert to the level from which it started,' Friedman noted. That rapid rise and fall may have amplified investor perceptions of severity. Still, other volatility indicators are said to suggest a more muted event. The volatility risk premium was said to be below 2020. Similarly, VIX futures backwardation and implied correlation were less pronounced than in prior crises. But while market volatility normalized quickly, underlying uncertainty has not. 'Since 1985, the EPU index is the highest it has ever been, and by a significant margin,' OptionMetrics found. Using one measure based solely on news coverage, current levels even exceed those seen during World War II and the Great Depression, according to the firm. 'Although the VIX has returned to more 'normal' levels,' Friedman warned, 'this suggests that VIX spikes related to economic policy surprises and general uncertainty are still very possible.' Related articles Tariffs, turmoil, and the VIX: How April 2025 compares to past crises? Jefferies upgrades Rollins on sales hiring surge, sees growth ahead Goldman Sachs now has a more neutral view on the rail sector
CNBC
a day ago
- Business
- CNBC
Stocks just had a big earnings season rally. History shows June could be a rough one
If history is any indication, this stellar earnings season and the ensuing May rally mean investors may be in for some rocky times ahead. By all standards, the first-quarter earnings season — which ended last week with Nvidia reporting an earnings and revenue beat — marked the resumption of the artificial intelligence-driven structural bull market, Evercore ISI wrote in a Sunday note. The investment firm noted that this earnings season had one of the biggest rallies of any season since 1992. "1Q Earnings Season was a Blowout (493 S & P 500 companies, 98% of market cap have reported), with S & P 500 Earnings Growth of 13.1% and Sales Growth of 5.0%, surprising by 8.1% and 0.8% respectively," wrote Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI senior managing director. The results helped propel the S & P 500 to a nearly 6.2% advance in May for its best month since November 2023. Emanuel noted that this blowout season and the subsequent rally have occurred despite uncertainty around President Donald Trump's proposed "big, beautiful" tax bill. However, he said history suggests that investors could be contending with elevated volatility in June. "The precedent for huge rallies during Earnings Season, similar to 1Q25's, is that the month ahead returns are choppy with plenty of volatility," he wrote. Emanuel added that the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, has on average gained 19% in the month after a huge earnings-fueled rally. The last time an earnings season was followed by a huge jump for stocks, in 2022, the VIX surged more than 17% the following month. Despite this volatility ahead, Emanuel said investors don't need to worry about revisiting the stock market's lows. "We think there's going to be further runway, but we don't think there's going to be a recession," he said Monday morning on CNBC's " Squawk on the Street ." "As we've seen, the policy tends to, let's say, evolve when we get down to the lows. But we don't think you need to go back there. We just think it needs to be sort of one of these healthier periods where we get more clarity around policy."
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
The tariff truce is teetering as Trump and China trade fresh threats
The fragile U.S.-China tariff truce is showing signs of unraveling. China's Ministry of Commerce issued sharp warnings over the weekend and into Monday, accusing the U.S. of 'undermining China's interests' and vowing to 'take forceful measures to safeguard its legitimate rights.' The statement, posted by official channels and widely republished across financial news outlets, followed President Donald Trump's accusation that China violated the truce achieved in trade talks early last month, when both sides slashed tariffs in a surprise May reset. 'China has taken seriously, strictly implemented and actively upheld the consensus reached at the talks with the U.S. in Geneva,' the ministry said in a second statement, expressing frustration over what it views as aggressive moves and comments from Washington. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the negotiations were 'a bit stalled' and suggested that further progress would require direct talks between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, legal uncertainty continues to count. A U.S. federal court last week ruled that portions of Trump's original tariff agenda may have been unlawfully enacted, but then a temporary stay from an appeals court preserved them, pending review of each side's arguments. The White House has until June 9 to defend its position and has floated fallback measures under the Trade Act of 1974, including emergency tariffs of up to 15%. According to the Conference Board, 83% of U.S. CEOs now expect a recession in the next 12 to 18 months. It's no wonder: Business leaders are having to navigate without clarity from policymakers, confidence that the current truce will remain in effect, or any sense of where matters stand from hour to hour, much less from week to week. As of Monday morning, stocks appear to be reflecting that same loss of confidence. Nasdaq futures slumped down by 0.5% and the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, while the VIX (a key measure of volatility and fear) jumped nearly 6%. Gold shot up almost 2%. In other words, the tariff ceasefire may be intact for now, but trust in its durability is rapidly eroding. For the latest news, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Stocks to buy today: Paytm, Swiggy among top 5 trading ideas for 2 June 2025
Nifty may consolidate with a positive bias; key support at 24,444, upside seen above 24,800. The Indian market is expected to consolidate with a positive bias on Monday amid mixed global cues. Nifty futures closed lower at 24,852 on Friday, while India VIX dropped over 2%. Analysts suggest a broader trading range of 24,300–25,300. Key levels to watch are 24,800 for upside momentum and 24,444 on the downside. Experts recommend stocks like Paytm, Swiggy, and Bajaj Finserv. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Stock Recommendations for Short-Term Traders Expert: Aakash Hindocha, Technical Analyst, Research at Nuvama Wealth (via ETBureau) Expert: Kunal Bothra, Market Expert (via ETNow) Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The Indian market is likely to consolidate with a positive bias on Monday, tracking mixed global Nifty futures closed lower with a loss of 0.36% at 24,852 on Friday. India VIX fell over 2% to close at 16.08 in the previous the options front, the maximum Call open interest (OI) is seen at the 24,800 and 25,000 strike prices, while the maximum Put OI is at 24,500 followed by 24, writing was observed at 24,800 and 25,500 strikes, while Put writing was seen at 24,400 and 24,000 strikes.'Options data suggests a broader trading range between 24,300 to 25,300 zones, with an immediate range between 24,500 to 25,000,' said Chandan Taparia, Analyst – Derivatives at Motilal Oswal Financial Services 'On the technical front, Nifty formed an inside bar pattern on both the daily and weekly charts last week, reflecting indecision and a narrowing price range,' he added.'Now, it has to cross and hold above the 24,800 zone for an upward move towards 25,000 and then 25,200. Otherwise, weakness could be seen towards 24,600 and then 24,444,' Taparia the weekly scale, Nifty Bank formed a small bullish candle on Friday and posted its highest weekly close in five | Target: Rs 985 | Stop Loss: Rs 852Buy | Target: Rs 366 | Stop Loss: Rs 320Buy | Target: Rs 2,060 | Stop Loss: Rs 1,990Buy | Target: Rs 240 | Stop Loss: Rs 215Buy | Target: Rs 155 | Stop Loss: Rs 143: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
CNBC
4 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
Tom Lee says the April selloff has 'rebirthed a new bull market,' likes small caps for second half
Tom Lee says investors are in a new bull market following the April lows, and prefers small caps in the second half of the year as buyers start to look past tariff risk. "I think what happened at the April lows — which was very capitulatory, and that was a huge liquidation event, and we had a VIX spike to 60 — that is the kind of flush and reset that I would associate with a new bull market," Lee told CNBC's " Money Movers " on Friday, referring to the CBOE Volatility Index . "I think we had what was a miniature bear market, but has essentially rebirthed the new bull market." The head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors expects any dips from here on will be "pretty shallow," given the boost markets can get later in the year from potential deregulation and new tax benefits. He also expects that the Federal Reserve, which has held interest rates steady since December amid tariff uncertainty, will start to ease monetary policy more aggressively in 2026 — another bullish tailwind for stocks. "We still think dips are going to be pretty shallow. It's still the most hated V-shaped rally. I mean, the Covid rally was hated until we made new highs. And the rally from the fall of 2022 was hated until we made new highs. It's not any different this time," Lee said. "While a lot of people are calling a top, I actually think that this is more of a mid-cycle kind of start of a new bull market," Lee added. Lee said he favors a barbell investment strategy, allocating more toward the Magnificent Seven in the near term amid a tech-fueled comeback, and then a preference for small caps in the second half of the year. The Russell 2000 small cap index has been especially punished this year, down more than 7% while the S & P 500 is virtually unchanged, as investors dumped riskier, more indebted companies for safe havens. "As I look at the second half, I think the small caps really have a strong case to be made, because as long as we move towards a tariff resolution, or the markets feel that way, then I think investors can actually start putting flows back into stocks other than the Mag Seven," Lee said.
