logo
#

Latest news with #VIX

IPOs surge 35% in H1 despite policy shifts, market volatility: EY
IPOs surge 35% in H1 despite policy shifts, market volatility: EY

Yahoo

time8 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

IPOs surge 35% in H1 despite policy shifts, market volatility: EY

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: The number of U.S. initial public offerings surged to 109 during the first half of 2025, increasing 35% compared with the same period last year despite stock market volatility and shifts in tariff and other policies, EY said. Although the number of IPOs is the biggest first-half tally since 2021, proceeds from offerings fell to $17.1 billion, or 9% less than the same period last year, EY said in a report. The IPO outlook worldwide 'remains cautiously optimistic,' with a solid pipeline for large offerings and a steady stream of smaller deals, EY said. Still, 'a broad-based resurgence in global IPO activity depends critically on cooperative trade frameworks, accommodative monetary policy, controlled inflation and geopolitical de-escalation.' Dive Insight: Unusually high policy uncertainty roiled the stock market during the first six months of the year, EY said, noting that the CBOE Volatility Index careened between 14.8 and 52.3, a gap five times wider than during the same period in 2024. The so-called VIX measures expected volatility in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. 'Fueled by uncertain U.S. trade policy and ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, this heightened volatility is compelling companies to reimagine their exit strategies, stay private longer or pursue listings with smaller float sizes,' EY said. Shifts to trade, regulation, immigration and fiscal policies by the Trump administration have prompted Federal Reserve policymakers to hold off on trimming borrowing costs until they can determine the impact of such changes to inflation, employment and financial markets. 'Market volatility serves as a critical barometer for IPO activity,' signalling investor expectations for future price movements and influencing 'sentiment, valuation multiples and public market receptivity to new offerings,' EY said. Higher volatility usually indicates risk aversion and poses a challenge for IPO candidates. Yet global capital markets this year are apparently adapting to political and geopolitical shocks, improving the outlook for IPOs, EY said. 'Trade tariffs, regional conflicts and macro-policy uncertainty — once primary triggers for volatility — are increasingly being priced into asset valuations, with investors and companies adjusting to what many now regard as a 'new normal,'' according to EY. After turbulence during the first six months of 2025, equity markets have regained ground, the VIX and other 'fear indexes' have stabilized and companies launching IPOs are diversifying to markets with deep pools of capital such as Hong Kong, EY said. IPO activity in the U.S., Canada and Latin America quickened late in the second quarter as concerns about tariffs and economic vulnerabilities eased, EY said. U.S. IPOs in the period rose 20% on average during the first day of trading, and offerings that raised $50 million or more in gross proceeds returned 40% through the end of Q2, EY said. Five of the 10 largest IPOs occurred during June, Rachel Gerring, EY Americas IPO leader, said. 'This suggests that IPO aspirants are proactively preparing and becoming increasingly agile, seizing market opportunities as they arise,' she said in a statement. 'With this renewed momentum, we remain optimistic about the remainder of 2025, assuming broader economic indicators remain stable,' Gerring said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Market's underlying 'angst' could lead to August volatility
Market's underlying 'angst' could lead to August volatility

Yahoo

time17 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Market's underlying 'angst' could lead to August volatility

RBC Capital Markets equity derivatives strategist Amy Wu Silverman joins Morning Brief with Julie Hyman to discuss how markets (^DJI, ^GSPC, ^IXIC) have been reacting to Fed uncertainty and tariff uncertainty. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. Markets seem to be shrugging off the latest trade back and forth. My next guest says volatility potholes, as she's calling them, could be ahead in August. Joining me now, Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Capital Markets Equity Derivatives Strategist. Ah, same, same today. We had the same thought on the color there, Amy. Um, good to see you. Um, Good to see you. You know, this has been sort of an ongoing discussion we've been having with you and other strategists just how resilient the market has been, at least on the surface, uh, in the face of these continued tariff threats. Is there anything under the water line, so to speak, that you're seeing? Look, there is, Julie. I think there is a lot of angst under the surface. One way that we identify that is just, you know, how do option prices, how does volatility look in the future? So maybe not the next month, maybe not the next two months, but even three, four, six, 12 months out. And that's where you do start to see investors demanding protection. There's heightened levels of volatility. We refer to that as the term structure, but it's simply saying that there is a good deal of worry, not necessarily for the summer months as the negotiations are still going on, but longer term, you know, there could be any number of reasons why, but it is much higher than normal. And that actually has been true since Liberation Day. And so do you think that there is complacency in the markets right now? And if so, I guess define what complacency is and what the risks are around that. Yeah, so when you think about it, if if you were an investor who was worried about tariffs, and you had obviously that gap during Liberation Day, but then you really got whipsawed, right? So when the market rallied that hard, you actually were caught offsides. And then you've had difficulty hedging near term because a lot of what Trump says, uh, you know, is subject to negotiation, is subject to deadlines being pushed back. Essentially what's happened is those folks who have been hedging kind of post that rally began have had a hard time. And so it's hard to keep those positions on. You know, that's not necessarily complacency. It's just this turbulence with regard to timing. I would flag that we're going into August, which tends to be seasonally poor for returns, seasonally high for volatility. And August 5th last year is when we got a major volatility pothole with the VIX spiking to over 60. Right. The summer has this sort of false reputation of being quiet when it's not necessarily a lot of the time, Amy. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Amidst cooling down markets, August may throw up a challenge, say experts
Amidst cooling down markets, August may throw up a challenge, say experts

The Hindu

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • The Hindu

Amidst cooling down markets, August may throw up a challenge, say experts

The VIX index, which measures the volatility of Indian markets fell to a 15-month-low of 11.2 points, opening the week at a more certain and a cooler pace. As fears have allayed, analysts say that August may turn up more challenging for the Indian bourses. The volatility index closed the lowest since April 26 2024, when the index was at 10.925. A lower value in the index is an indicator of cooler markets. Markets have also been calm for the better part of July 2025, weathering the Jane Street storm. 'Markets have already factored U.S. tariffs and low corporate earnings. VIX can increase slightly in the last week of July,' said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Research at Kotak Securities. The current state of calm is not surprising, says Akshay Chinchalkar, Head of Research at Axis Securities. 'If one examines the data from the last decade, the average value for the India VIX has been around 17. One standard deviation below the mean is approximately 10.6. This is the level at which the fear index has shown a tendency to bottom out. Secondly, if one looks at July, 90% of the time in the last 10 years, it has ended lower with an average decline of 1.7 points. So, it is not at all surprising that the gauge has largely fallen this month,' said Mr. Chinchalkar. 'In August, however, it tends to do the opposite – it has risen in eight out of 10 years for the month with an average jump size of 1.6 points. Since the VIX and the Nifty tend to move in different directions most of the time, seasonally speaking, August could present investors with some challenges. The tariff deadline is the first of August, so that can be the catalyst that drives up volatility,' Mr. Chinchalkar added.

India VIX at 15-month low as market stays calm; muted volatility to persist
India VIX at 15-month low as market stays calm; muted volatility to persist

Business Standard

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Business Standard

India VIX at 15-month low as market stays calm; muted volatility to persist

India's market volatility index has slipped to a 15-month low, with analysts attributing the decline to the absence of major geopolitical triggers and expecting the subdued volatility to persist in the near term. India VIX, the measure of market volatility in the domestic market, is currently trading at 11.4, the lowest closing since April 29, 2024. The gauge has fallen for the third straight month and is down 37 per cent so far since May. The volatility gauge measures the market's expectation of future volatility based on Nifty50 index options contracts. It typically rises when market volatility is expected to increase, indicating higher uncertainty or risk in the near future. Currently, there are no major immediate events expected, which is why the VIX is at its lowest level in about 15 months, according to Nilesh Shah, head of derivatives and technical research at Centrum Broking. "We've also seen a steady decline in implied volatility (IV), which is actually supportive for the market," he said. Earlier concerns, such as geopolitical tensions, particularly around US President Trump's tariffs, have also eased, said Chandan Taparia, head of technical and derivatives research at Motilal Oswal Wealth Management. "There's stability in crude oil prices and no immediate concerns around central banks like the Federal Reserve (FOMC) or the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). With most major events behind us, the focus has shifted to quarterly earnings." Global stability across equity markets, including in indices like the Dow Jones, is another reason why India's volatility remains subdued, Taparia noted. The CBOE VIX, America's volatility index, has dropped over the past four months, he added. No Jane Street Impact There is no connection between the decline in India VIX and the Jane Street ban, analysts clarified. The curb on trading by Jane Street has already played out, Shah said. 'Since this is based on the Nifty Index options contracts, some might think there's a connection. But India VIX reflects overall market sentiment, not direct movements in the options market,' he explained. Investors need to assess implied volatility to understand activity in the options market more precisely. Taparia also emphasised that the current low VIX levels are not related to the ban on Jane Street.

Liberation Day to record highs: The hidden strength in SA equities
Liberation Day to record highs: The hidden strength in SA equities

IOL News

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • IOL News

Liberation Day to record highs: The hidden strength in SA equities

South Africa's own bourse has quietly delivered exceptional returns, says the author. Image: Gianluigi Guercia / AFP In a world beset by geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and economic uncertainty, equity markets have continued to surprise on the upside. For South African investors, the post - "Liberation Day" rally has revealed a hidden strength in local equities that defies the broader narrative of emerging market vulnerability. While global headlines have been dominated by tariff threats, war-driven commodity fluctuations, and the resilience of US markets, South Africa's own bourse has quietly delivered exceptional returns. Since the 2nd of April, now dubbed 'Liberation Day', the local and global equity markets have handled the turmoil like a champ. Despite, ongoing wars, oil price concerns and the renewed threat of steep tariffs from President Trump. The US equity market has continued to remain resilient and even rally since the last round of tariff threats. The S&P 500 has recovered to record highs once again, with a return of about 24% since the bottom of the drop. Meanwhile, the VIX has recovered to normal levels signalling positive investor sentiment post April. The recovery was mainly driven by rallies in the tech and industrial sectors. The South African equity market also performed impressively in the period, reaching all-time highs of its own, returning around 19% since Trump's tariff turmoil began. Combined with the relative strengthening of the rand to the dollar, this has allowed the JSE All Share index to outperform the S&P500 over the last five years in dollar returns. Figure 1: Total Return Index Image: Prescient Investment Management, Bloomberg (as at July 2025) This outcome is particularly striking considering the strong US equity exceptionalism narrative and the global shift towards dollar-based assets over the past decade The performance underscores that, over this period, the JSE All Share Index has been a surprisingly competitive investment option for both global and local investors! However, despite these strong returns, foreign investors have remained persistent net sellers of South African equities, with nearly R150 billions in net outflows recorded so far this year. This trend underscores that the main beneficiaries of the market's strong performance have been local and foreign investors who chose to stay, rather than new foreign capital inflows. A major driver behind the stellar year-to-date performance has been the basic materials sector, notably gold miners, who have benefited from a roughly 28% increase in the gold price so far this year. The basic materials sector now accounts for about 21% of the All Share Index, only a few percentage points behind the financial sector's 25% weighting. Meanwhile, the telecommunications and technology sectors have also delivered impressive gains, adding to the market's broad-based rally. Figure 3: Year to Date SA Sector Performance Image: Source: Prescient Investment Management, Bloomberg July 2025 Looking ahead, investors will keep a close eye on the 1st of August, the deadline Trump has set for the next round of tariffs. This presents a new potential wave of uncertainty for markets. However, investors can take some comfort in knowing that while tariffs present a once-off upward shock to price levels, they are unlikely to impact long-term inflation expectations. Long-term inflation expectations are a key driver of forward returns for all asset classes, including bonds and equities. This component of the forward returns should, therefore, remain largely unchanged by tariffs even if they do come into effect. Nicholas De Clercq Image: Supplied Nicholas De Clercq, Quantitative Analyst at Prescient Investment Management *** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL. BUSINESS REPORT

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store