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Business Insider
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
The Kremlin's recruiters are crushing their targets and might get their 2025 goals bumped up, Ukraine spy chief says
The Kremlin's military recruitment is doing so well this year that it may increase its annual target again, said the deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence. "In general, the Russian Federation's recruitment plans are being fulfilled by at least 105 to 110% each month," said Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, in an interview with Ukrainian news outlet Suspilne that was published on Tuesday. Skibitsky said Russia has likely recruited two-thirds of the 343,000 new soldiers it aims to field in 2025, putting it on track to hit its annual goal. Russia's expanded military recruitment, buoyed by large sign-up bonuses and other perks for families of injured or killed soldiers, has been a driving force for Moscow's ability to sustain its war in Ukraine. Sign-up bonuses vary depending on the region in Russia, with local governments in areas such as Moscow and St. Petersburg offering higher payouts. The baseline bonus is set at 400,000 rubles, according to a decree signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the summer of 2024. "For an average citizen of the Russian Federation, a simple worker, this is a lot of money. In the case of the first contract, we are talking about an average of 1.5-2 million Russian rubles," Skibitsky said. 2 million rubles is worth roughly $25,000. Russia's federal statistics service said in its latest update that the average wage in the country was about $1,200 a month in February. Skibitsky said the accelerated recruitment rate means Russia can send up to 35,000 fresh troops a month to the front — critical to the Kremlin's strategy of repeatedly launching costly ground assaults that wear down Ukrainian defenses. Ukraine also has intelligence that the Kremlin plans to follow up on its success this year by increasing recruitment goals by 15 to 17%, Skibitsky added. "But we do not yet have confirmation whether this decision has come into effect," the spy chief said, without providing further detail about the intelligence. His latest comments come after Ukrainian intelligence said in March that Russia had pushed its recruitment goal for 2024 from 380,000 troops to 430,000. The Kremlin's recruitment drive has also been buttressed by changes in Russia's legal system that allow prisoners or people with charges filed against them to avoid trial by joining the military. Skibitsky said that about 25% of Russia's new recruits are those who committed crimes or are under investigation. Moscow spent an estimated $25.68 billion on salaries, bonuses, and perks for war personnel in the first half of 2025, according to an analysis in July by Re:Russia, an analytics platform run by exiled Russian academics. The country is expected to spend 6.3% of its GDP on defense this year, a record high since the Soviet Union fell in 1991. The Kremlin's recruitment is so extensive that the sheer number of people joining the military industry has reportedly driven up labor costs for civilian industries, particularly in service sectors. On the other hand, Kyiv has struggled for years to replenish and maintain its troop numbers on the front lines. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday that Russian forces outnumber his country's soldiers by three to one.
Yahoo
28-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Ukraine's spy agency says Russia believes it must end the war by 2026 or risk falling far behind the US and China
The deputy head of Ukraine's GUR said the Kremlin forecasts a need to end the war by 2026. Vadym Skibitsky said Moscow is likely concerned about its long-term ability to compete with the US. If the war drags on, its relevance could be relegated just to Eastern Europe, Skibitsky said. Ukraine's intelligence agency said on Tuesday that Russia likely believes it must resolve its war with Kyiv by 2026, or eventually lose its chances of competing with the US and China on the world stage. Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence agency GUR, referenced forecast documents from the Kremlin at a press event in Kyiv about European security. Business Insider could not independently verify the existence and authenticity of these documents. "We can say that the Russian Federation has clearly defined in these documents that the Ukrainian issue must be resolved by 2026," said Skibitsky, who is also deputy head of GUR. "Because if the war continues for another five to 10 years, Russia will never be able to catch up and reach the same level as the United States and China," he added. Should this happen, Russia could stand to "forever remain a regional player" in Eastern Europe, Skibitsky said. "And the Russian Federation clearly understands this today. That is why it foresees this in the future," he said. Skibitsky said such Russian forecasts typically combine work from government ministries, federal agencies, and research institutions, and that the Kremlin's plans had described war scenarios as far in the future as 2045. These included conflict scenarios with Northern European states, Poland, and the Baltics, Skibitsky said. The deputy spy chief's comments come as the White House has sought to push Ukraine and Russia toward a cease-fire. The effort has surfaced new questions about how long the war will last — and concerns in Ukraine that the resulting peace might only be achieved by giving Russia outsize concessions. In early March, The Washington Post reported that an influential think tank in Moscow had assessed that a "peaceful resolution" to the war by 2026 would be impossible. According to the Post, the analysis recommended a hardline, maximalist stance toward negotiations with the US and Ukraine. However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the outlet that the federal government "was not aware of such recommendations" and was working with "more considered options." The head of GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, recently voiced a similar assessment of Moscow needing a 2026 deadline. "If they don't end this war by 2026, they lose even a chance for global leadership," he told state broadcaster Ukrinform on February 27. "They will be left with, at most, a regional leadership level, which is absolutely unacceptable to them." Budanov said that a protracted war would undermine Russia's ability to innovate in tech and compete with the US on the world stage, especially with its ability to contest the Arctic regions. "The cost of the war is too high — the financial cost," he told Ukrinform. Washington's leaders consider Russia as one of two near-peer competitors or potential adversaries, meaning that it has a chance of being comparable to US military might. The other is China, which leaders in both the Biden and Trump administrations have repeatedly said is the Pentagon's main priority for preparing against threats. The Russian Defense Ministry and the Kremlin's press office did not respond to requests for comment sent by BI. Read the original article on Business Insider
Yahoo
28-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Ukraine's spy agency says Russia believes it must end the war by 2026 or risk falling far behind the US and China
The deputy head of Ukraine's GUR said the Kremlin forecasts a need to end the war by 2026. Vadym Skibitsky said Moscow is likely concerned about its long-term ability to compete with the US. If the war drags on, its relevance could be relegated just to Eastern Europe, Skibitsky said. Ukraine's intelligence agency said on Tuesday that Russia likely believes it must resolve its war with Kyiv by 2026, or eventually lose its chances of competing with the US and China on the world stage. Maj. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence agency GUR, referenced forecast documents from the Kremlin at a press event in Kyiv about European security. Business Insider could not independently verify the existence and authenticity of these documents. "We can say that the Russian Federation has clearly defined in these documents that the Ukrainian issue must be resolved by 2026," said Skibitsky, who is also deputy head of GUR. "Because if the war continues for another five to 10 years, Russia will never be able to catch up and reach the same level as the United States and China," he added. Should this happen, Russia could stand to "forever remain a regional player" in Eastern Europe, Skibitsky said. "And the Russian Federation clearly understands this today. That is why it foresees this in the future," he said. Skibitsky said such Russian forecasts typically combine work from government ministries, federal agencies, and research institutions, and that the Kremlin's plans had described war scenarios as far in the future as 2045. These included conflict scenarios with Northern European states, Poland, and the Baltics, Skibitsky said. The deputy spy chief's comments come as the White House has sought to push Ukraine and Russia toward a cease-fire. The effort has surfaced new questions about how long the war will last — and concerns in Ukraine that the resulting peace might only be achieved by giving Russia outsize concessions. In early March, The Washington Post reported that an influential think tank in Moscow had assessed that a "peaceful resolution" to the war by 2026 would be impossible. According to the Post, the analysis recommended a hardline, maximalist stance toward negotiations with the US and Ukraine. However, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the outlet that the federal government "was not aware of such recommendations" and was working with "more considered options." The head of GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, recently voiced a similar assessment of Moscow needing a 2026 deadline. "If they don't end this war by 2026, they lose even a chance for global leadership," he told state broadcaster Ukrinform on February 27. "They will be left with, at most, a regional leadership level, which is absolutely unacceptable to them." Budanov said that a protracted war would undermine Russia's ability to innovate in tech and compete with the US on the world stage, especially with its ability to contest the Arctic regions. "The cost of the war is too high — the financial cost," he told Ukrinform. Washington's leaders consider Russia as one of two near-peer competitors or potential adversaries, meaning that it has a chance of being comparable to US military might. The other is China, which leaders in both the Biden and Trump administrations have repeatedly said is the Pentagon's main priority for preparing against threats. The Russian Defense Ministry and the Kremlin's press office did not respond to requests for comment sent by BI. Read the original article on Business Insider
