Latest news with #VedaPartners
Bloomberg
2 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
President Overplayed His Hand With China: Treyz
Henrietta Treyz, managing partner and director of economic policy at Veda Partners, says a 90-day tariff pause is necessary. She explains that President Trump overplayed his hand with China by imposing tariffs that are too high. She speaks with Romaine Bostick and Vonnie Quinn on 'The Close,' emphasizing that the constitutionality of the tariffs remains in question. (Source: Bloomberg)
Mint
4 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Trump warned courts not to strike down tariffs. What could happen if they do.
The Trump administration is counting on a projected $50 billion from tariffs to fund its policies, but that windfall may be jeopardized by a case currently making its way through federal court. If the administration loses, things could get messy. While refunds may need to be given, analysts also see officials lining up various Plan Bs to keep tariffs in the mix. Henrietta Treyz, head of economic policy research at Veda Partners, says markets would get a jolt. 'This is the story for the second half of the year," Treyz says. At issue is President Donald Trump's unprecedented use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose country-specific tariffs for reasons as varied as fentanyl flows, trade deficits, and Brazil's trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The Court of International Trade in late May ruled unanimously against the Trump administration and analysts see a possibility the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit could do so as well, with a decision expected in coming weeks. While unusual for the Supreme Court to take on a case where two lower courts have ruled similarly, political consultants and trade lawyers expect the high court to entertain an a social media post on Friday, Trump warned the U.S. wouldn't be able to recover from 'such a judicial tragedy" if the court ruled against the administration. 'If a Radical Left Court ruled against us at this late date, in an attempt to bring down or disturb the largest amount of money, wealth creation and influence the U.S.A. has ever seen, it would be impossible to ever recover, or pay back, these massive sums of money and honor, " Trump wrote. 'It would be 1929 all over again, a GREAT DEPRESSION!" Tariffs imposed under various authorities brought in $28 billion in revenue last month, bringing the annual total to about $150 billion. And that's before tariffs on 90 countries went into effect this week. Those tariffs are largely paid by U.S. importers—and their customers when the companies are unable to eat the costs. In a note to clients, Dan Clifton, head of policy research for Strategas, says tariffs are like a $2 trillion tax increase on the U.S. economy—but the impact has been effectively sterilized by the new tax cuts passed by revenue generated by tariffs is critical for the administration as it tries to mitigate the deficit hit from those tax cuts. For that reason, analysts see the administration prepping multiple avenues to pivot to if courts rule against courts decide the administration can't use IEEPA, international trade lawyers expect a messy period of red tape as refunds are processed and the administration scrambles to impose tariffs through other avenues. Strategas' Clifton says the U.S. could have to refund $100 billion if the Trump's IEEPA authority is struck down—and that could offer net fiscal stimulus for the economy even as it would increase the deficit. For now, he notes betting markets put odds of such a refund at just 13%. One avenue the administration could pivot toward if IEEPA is struck down is Section 122 of trade law, which would allow it to impose up to 15% tariffs for 150 days. Another is Section 301, which comes with investigations into unfair trade practices. It can take a bit longer but often leads to more durable tariffs. The Section 301 investigation Trump started in his first term against China resulted in tariffs still in place on a swath of Chinese imports. The Section 232 tariffs already in place on aluminum, steel, copper, autos and now semiconductors wouldn't be affected by an IEEPA ruling. But trade veterans say that a loss in court on IEEPA could weaken the administration's hand considerably in ongoing negotiations, especially as most of the agreements reached so far are still preliminary. Even here, contingency planning is in the works: Treyz notes U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's recent comments that the pacts reached with countries are binding trade deals and essentially 'executive agreements." That is paving the way to suggest Congress doesn't have to weigh in on them, as they would a typical trade deal, Treyz says. Such an argument will likely draw political blowback and lawsuits from importers, but Treyz stresses a level of uncertainty at play considering all of this is in uncharted waters. Write to Reshma Kapadia at
Axios
6 days ago
- Entertainment
- Axios
"The Pitt" will tackle Trump's "big, beautiful, bill," Medicaid cuts in season 2
"The Pitt" is following up the success of its debut season with a second that addresses President Trump 's recently passed " big, beautiful bill," whose cuts to Medicaid could affect millions of people. Why it matters: Other shows have tackled the Trump era, and "The Pitt," which raked in about 10 million viewers per episode, will continue that trend by grappling with legislation that could hurt many Americans, hospitals and local economies. Driving the news: The show's executive producers, John Wells and R. Scott Gemmill, told Variety that they calibrated the legislation's impact, which won't be felt until 2026, by interviewing hundreds of medical professionals. What they're saying: Wells said that the legislation is "going to have on-the-ground, immediate consequences in emergency rooms." "That's a bipartisan agreement," Wells told Variety. "You've got very Republican senators from Missouri like Josh Hawley agreeing that this is going to be a problem." Flashback: Following the law's passage, Sen. Hawley introduced legislation that would repeal some of the Medicaid cuts, which he voted for. His bill has not progressed since its introduction. Gemmill said that emergency rooms — the show takes place in one — will feel the brunt of the law's changes. "When people have less finances from the government to help them with their healthcare, they're going to end up in the only place where they can get free healthcare," he said. "The ER is just going to get busier and busier… the system is destined for a tipping point." Catch up quick: The One Big, Beautiful Bill Act green lit almost $1.1 trillion in slashes to Medicaid and other health policy changes, likely forcing states to make corresponding reductions to their programs or to pick up a greater share of obligations. 12 million people are projected to lose healthcare coverage under the bill. The law also restricts the use of state " provider taxes" to generate additional money for their Medicaid programs. Hospitals have"just gotten absolutely smoked," Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners told Axios last month. In the law's current state, things look especially dire for rural hospitals. 69% of surveyed hospital executives predict rural hospitals will close because of the Medicaid funding cuts, according to market intelligence firm Eliciting Insights. Rural hospitals have high percentages of Medicaid and Medicare patients, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Noah Wyle, the star of "The Pitt," has lobbied for legislation to improve the lives of healthcare professionals, tackling staffing shortages and burnout.
Axios
03-07-2025
- Business
- Axios
Sector winners and losers of the "big, beautiful bill"
Manufacturing and defense companies stand to win from the " big, beautiful bill," while wind and solar fare worse and hospitals could be hit hard. Why it matters: Investors welcome the certainty of the bill, but are also nervous about heavily exposed sectors. The big picture: Companies will get expanded provisions on itemization and expenses, including 100% bonus depreciation, which allows business to deduct expenses immediately rather than over three years. Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners says this could benefit manufacturers, although the stimulative effects of the bill could be muted by tariffs on things like steel and aluminum. "The John Deeres and Caterpillars of the world benefit from a 100% bonus depreciation" historically, she says. Defense spending also benefits, as armed services spending is set to increase by $150 billion under the bill. Couple that with the administration's push to grow the defense budget to over $1 trillion annually and it's a boost in spending that "markets do not appreciate…at all," says Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy. Palantir, an AI-focused defense contractor with ties to Donald Trump, is still among the top five best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year. The other side: While a proposed tax on wind and solar projects was taken out of the bill, tax credits are still set to be removed. Tax credits are key to the economics of solar installation investments, and "for many in that sector, this bill would represent their fears confirmed," per a statement from John Gimigliano, principal in charge of federal tax legislative and regulatory services at KPMG U.S. The removal of a $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit is set to be a headwind for EV sales, which could be another pain point for Tesla (though its stock recently rallied even after soft delivery numbers.) Hospitals have"just gotten absolutely smoked, so much so that quite frankly there's no way that these cuts go into effect," according to Treyz. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated $1.1 trillion in health care cuts from the bill. This could weigh on hospital REITs that benefited from that government spending. The loss of social safety nets for millions of Americans could be an additional pressure point to the broader economy over time. The bottom line: Winners and losers aside, at least the market has a better handle on what's coming now.
Yahoo
30-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Why $3.8 trillion in unpaid deficits could unsettle bond markets
Congressional talks today could unlock trillions in new deficit spending — without offsets. Henrietta Treyz, managing partner and director of economic policy at Veda Partners, breaks down the potential $3.8 trillion deficit increase and the risk it poses to bond markets (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX). To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here. Great to have you as always here. So what's kind of chief most on your checklists that needs to come forward at least in the discussions in the Vodor Rama today and ultimately how investors should be thinking about that? The most important thing is the amendment or the motion that they are considering about whether or not to sidestep the parliamentarian and use the current policy baseline that Ben was just talking about. Effectively, what we're doing here is we're authorizing $3.8 trillion dollars in deficit increases without paying for it and moreover, assuming that the cost is zero. And the reason that's important is mostly for the bond markets and anybody looking at our go forward debt and deficits, that effectively paves the road, a beautiful road for steamrolling through any further deficit increases that any party wants from from now on. Um so this is like sort of the end of any sort of leash on deficit increases or spending from Congress. So that's a very big deal. Um other than that, the Medicaid cuts are enormous for the hospitals, um hospitals nationwide are sort of freaking out. You can see that in the market today and also the energy stocks as the IRA tax cuts are being repealed to a much greater extent than I think anybody anticipated, certainly us. Sign in to access your portfolio
