Latest news with #VeriskMaplecroft
West Australian
2 hours ago
- Business
- West Australian
Markets are shrugging off the Israel-Iran conflict. Some strategists warn of complacency
Global investors may be underpricing the impact of a conflict between Israel and Iran, market watchers warned overnight Monday, as stocks rallied despite escalating warfare in the Middle East. The two regional powers continued trading fire on Monday, marking the fourth consecutive day of fighting since Israel launched airstrikes against Iran last week. Despite the continued fighting — with hundreds reported dead — global stock markets sustained a positive momentum on Monday, seemingly shrugging off broader concerns about the conflict. Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, warned on Monday that there was a risk markets were underpricing 'the risk of a major conflagration in the Middle East', particularly when it comes to the energy market. European shares opened broadly higher on Monday, with Asia-Pacific stocks and US stock futures also trading in the green. Even Middle Eastern indexes saw gains on Monday, with the Tel Aviv 35 index last seen trading one per cent higher after falling 1.5 per cent last week. 'This is partly because there are so many moving parts and geopolitical considerations, and partly because the potential outcomes are so unthinkable,' Mould said. 'In a worst case, oil and share prices would be the least of our worries.' In a Monday morning note, David Roche, a strategist at Quantum Strategy, warned that the conflict between Israel and Iran 'will last longer than the Israeli lightning-strikes that the market is used to'. Torbjorn Soltvedtp, principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, agreed, saying an escalation remained of 'huge concern'. 'What we have now is very different, and what we're seeing is effectively a war and an open-ended one,' he said. 'And of course, that is something that has huge implications, not just for the region, but also for energy markets and how they interpret what is happening. You know, minute by minute and day by day.' Energy markets have moved the most on news of the attacks, as the Israel-Iran conflict stoked supply concerns. While Friday marked the biggest single-day gain for crude since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, however, global benchmark Brent crude futures — last seen at $US73.75 a barrel — were still far below the prices seen in the aftermath of Moscow's incursion into Ukrainian territory. 'A lull is the most likely outcome before later escalation when Iran rejects US Trump's overtures,' Roche said. 'The market is likely to mistake the lull for lasting peace. I would use the lull to buy into energy assets as a safe haven.' Some market watchers are taking a somewhat less pessimistic view, however. In a note on Monday, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid noted that while both Iran and Israel had traded retaliatory blows, they had so far avoided 'the most extreme escalatory steps'. 'As geopolitical shocks are becoming more frequent it seems it's now at least a yearly occurrence that we refer to our equity strategists' work on the impact of such shocks and how long it takes for the market to recover from them,' he said. 'The typical pattern is for the S&P 500 to pull back about -6 per cent in three weeks after the shock but then rally all the way back in another 3,' Reid said. '[Our strategists] believe this incident will likely be milder than this unless we get notable escalation as they highlight that equity positioning is already underweight … and a -6 per cent selloff would need it to fall all the way to the bottom of its usual range.' Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, saidon Monday that he feels the market is correct in not pricing a huge escalation, such as the US being drawn into the fray, or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz, nestled between Iran and Oman, is a vital oil transit route through which millions of barrels of oil are transported every day. 'Still, the market reaction has been very modest, so there is room for disappointment if things were to escalate,' Gijsels conceded on Monday. CNBC
CNBC
12 hours ago
- Business
- CNBC
Markets are shrugging off the Israel-Iran conflict. Some strategists warn of complacency
Global investors may be underpricing the impact of a conflict between Israel and Iran, market watchers warned on Monday, as stocks rallied despite escalating warfare in the Middle East. The two regional powers continued trading fire on Monday, marking the fourth consecutive day of fighting since Israel launched airstrikes against Iran last week. Despite the continued fighting — with hundreds reported dead — global stock markets sustained a positive momentum on Monday, seemingly shrugging off broader concerns about the conflict. Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, warned on Monday that there was a risk markets were underpricing "the risk of a major conflagration in the Middle East," particularly when it comes to the energy market. European shares opened broadly higher on Monday, with Asia-Pacific stocks and U.S. stock futures also trading in the green. Even Middle Eastern indexes saw gains on Monday, with the Tel Aviv 35 index last seen trading 1% higher after falling 1.5% last week. "This is partly because there are so many moving parts and geopolitical considerations, and partly because the potential outcomes are so unthinkable," Mould said. "In a worst case, oil and share prices would be the least of our worries." In a Monday morning note, David Roche, a strategist at Quantum Strategy, warned that the conflict between Israel and Iran "will last longer than the Israeli lightning-strikes that the market is used to." Torbjorn Soltvedtp, principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, agreed, saying an escalation remained of "huge concern." "What we have now is very different, and what we're seeing is effectively a war and an open-ended one," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." "And of course, that is something that has huge implications, not just for the region, but also for energy markets and how they interpret what is happening. You know, minute by minute and day by day." Energy markets have moved the most on news of the attacks, as the Israel-Iran conflict stoked supply Friday marked the biggest single-day gain for crude since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, however, global benchmark Brent crude futures — last seen at $73.75 a barrel — were still far below the prices seen in the aftermath of Moscow's incursion into Ukrainian territory. "A lull is the most likely outcome before later escalation when Iran rejects US Trump's overtures," Roche said. "The market is likely to mistake the lull for lasting peace. I would use the lull to buy into energy assets as a safe haven." Some market watchers are taking a somewhat less pessimistic view, however. In a note on Monday, Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid noted that while both Iran and Israel had traded retaliatory blows, they had so far avoided "the most extreme escalatory steps." "As geopolitical shocks are becoming more frequent it seems it's now at least a yearly occurrence that we refer to our equity strategists' work on the impact of such shocks and how long it takes for the market to recover from them," he said."The typical pattern is for the S&P 500 to pull back about -6% in 3 weeks after the shock but then rally all the way back in another 3," Reid said. "[Our strategists] believe this incident will likely be milder than this unless we get notable escalation as they highlight that equity positioning is already underweight … and a -6% selloff would need it to fall all the way to the bottom of its usual range." Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, told CNBC on Monday that he feels the market is correct in not pricing a huge escalation, such as the U.S. being drawn into the fray, or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz, nestled between Iran and Oman, is a vital oil transit route through which millions of barrels of oil are transported every day. "Still, the market reaction has been very modest, so there is room for disappointment if things were to escalate," Gijsels conceded on Monday.
Axios
01-05-2025
- Business
- Axios
New report sees corporate climate risk tripling by 2050
Companies listed on the world's biggest stock exchanges have over $1 trillion at risk ahead in countries facing high climate vulnerabilities, a new analysis finds. Why it matters: Verisk Maplecroft's study takes a newly expansive view of corporate climate jeopardy. The risk consultancy explores exposure to forces like political instability, declining workforce productivity, migration and much more. State of play: It sees $1.14 trillion worth of market value at risk in 2050 in countries facing "very high" climate exposure in their index — up from just $34.8 billion today. That's based on their "intermediate" emissions scenario that projects global temps climbing 2.7° C above preindustrial levels this century. For context, that much warming would bring lots of harm — and it's quite plausible. UN climate analysts estimated in late 2024 that full implementation of nations' voluntary climate pledges at the time would bring 2.6°C of warming in a best-case scenario. The big picture: "While many companies report on their physical exposure to climate hazards, lesser understood socio-economic factors do not feature as part of corporate strategies, creating a blind spot for long-term resilience planning," says Will Nichols, Verisk Maplecroft's head of climate and resilience, in a statement. How it works: The analysis graphs each country's exposure to three major buckets of risk. Hazards like extreme weather events and long-term, chronic changes in temperature and precipitation levels. The sensitivity of their populations based on health, poverty levels, farming reliance and more. Adaptation capacity based on factors like institutions' strength and political stability. What they found: A "dramatic increase in the financial exposure of companies and investors" in the world's five largest equity exchanges. That intermediate emissions case brings the number of countries ranked "very high" in Verisk's "Climate Hazard and Vulnerability Index" to 48 by midcentury, up from 24 today. There are threats to corporate assets in big emerging markets, especially India but also Nigeria, Pakistan and others. Threat level: While the report focuses on valuations and assets, it's a reflection of global warming hitting people hard. It notes that fast-growing, lower-income nations "will bear the brunt of the climate crisis despite their low overall contribution to global emissions." Western companies headquartered in richer, more resilient countries aren't insulated, given risks to their operations abroad.
Associated Press
30-04-2025
- Business
- Associated Press
Verisk Unveils First-of-Its-Kind SRCC Catastrophe Model for the U.S. to Quantify Political Violence Risks
JERSEY CITY, N.J, April 30, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In response to escalating insurance losses from large-scale civil unrest events in recent years, leading global analytics and data provider Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK) is releasing the industry's first-of-its-kind catastrophe model to help quantify the financial impacts of strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) in the United States. Since 2010, strikes, riots, and civil commotion events have led to more than USD 10 billion in insured losses globally, compared to less than USD 1 billion for terrorism. In the past six years, the insurance industry has faced five events, each causing over USD 1 billion in global insured losses. Verisk's new SRCC model was built to enhance the way underwriters and risk managers approach the increasing risk posed by SRCC events in the U.S., which has experienced approximately USD 3 billion in insured losses. 'Over recent years, unrest in the U.S. highlighted the necessity for insurers to have a comprehensive understanding of potential political risk hazards,' said Sam Haynes, vice president of data and analytics, Verisk Maplecroft. 'A 1 in 1,000-year SRCC event could cause losses 10 times greater than those from the 2020 protests, while very low-probability SRCC tail events could potentially impact commercial and municipal properties at the ZIP code level nationwide, the majority of which are located in metropolitan areas.' The Verisk SRCC Model for the U.S. has a 500,000-year stochastic catalog, capturing the frequency and severity across the spectrum of plausible loss-causing unrest across every ZIP Code in the country. It predicts the severity of an event by evaluating the key drivers of risk, including social and economic trends, political factors and historical protest patterns. The probabilistic model can provide enhanced insight for exposure management and catastrophe modeling teams that have traditionally been reliant on historical, generic civil unrest data and subjective assessments. 'Verisk's goal is to empower insurers covering political violence and terrorism risks to enhance their underwriting strategies through insights on the riskiness of exposures. This will facilitate informed decisions on insurance pricing, capital allocation, risk management and mitigation,' said Shane Latchman, managing director of Verisk Extreme Event Solutions team in London. 'Ultimately, this SRCC Model enables underwriters to balance risk and premium effectively and allow insurers to effectively model this risk.' The SRCC Model combines almost 40 years of catastrophe modeling expertise from Verisk's Extreme Event Solutions business with 15+ years of experience from its global risks business, Verisk Maplecroft, in quantifying political violence. This unique approach offers insurers and reinsurers a compelling solution that will enable them to: The SRCC Model is available through Verisk's Extreme Events Solutions' Touchstone platform. Learn more here: About Verisk Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK) is a leading strategic data analytics and technology partner to the global insurance industry. It empowers clients to strengthen operating efficiency, improve underwriting and claims outcomes, combat fraud and make informed decisions about global risks, including climate change, extreme events, sustainability and political issues. Through advanced data analytics, software, scientific research and deep industry knowledge, Verisk helps build global resilience for individuals, communities and businesses. With teams across more than 20 countries, Verisk consistently earns certification by Great Place to Work and fosters an inclusive culture where all team members feel they belong. For more, visit and the Verisk Newsroom. Jason McGeown Senior Director of Communications, Verisk Maplecroft [email protected]
Yahoo
30-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Verisk Unveils First-of-Its-Kind SRCC Catastrophe Model for the U.S. to Quantify Political Violence Risks
Since 2010, strikes, riots and civil commotion have led to more than USD 10 billion in insured losses, compared to less than USD 1 billion for terrorism JERSEY CITY, N.J, April 30, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In response to escalating insurance losses from large-scale civil unrest events in recent years, leading global analytics and data provider Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK) is releasing the industry's first-of-its-kind catastrophe model to help quantify the financial impacts of strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) in the United States. Since 2010, strikes, riots, and civil commotion events have led to more than USD 10 billion in insured losses globally, compared to less than USD 1 billion for terrorism. In the past six years, the insurance industry has faced five events, each causing over USD 1 billion in global insured losses. Verisk's new SRCC model was built to enhance the way underwriters and risk managers approach the increasing risk posed by SRCC events in the U.S., which has experienced approximately USD 3 billion in insured losses. 'Over recent years, unrest in the U.S. highlighted the necessity for insurers to have a comprehensive understanding of potential political risk hazards,' said Sam Haynes, vice president of data and analytics, Verisk Maplecroft. 'A 1 in 1,000-year SRCC event could cause losses 10 times greater than those from the 2020 protests, while very low-probability SRCC tail events could potentially impact commercial and municipal properties at the ZIP code level nationwide, the majority of which are located in metropolitan areas.' The Verisk SRCC Model for the U.S. has a 500,000-year stochastic catalog, capturing the frequency and severity across the spectrum of plausible loss-causing unrest across every ZIP Code in the country. It predicts the severity of an event by evaluating the key drivers of risk, including social and economic trends, political factors and historical protest patterns. The probabilistic model can provide enhanced insight for exposure management and catastrophe modeling teams that have traditionally been reliant on historical, generic civil unrest data and subjective assessments. 'Verisk's goal is to empower insurers covering political violence and terrorism risks to enhance their underwriting strategies through insights on the riskiness of exposures. This will facilitate informed decisions on insurance pricing, capital allocation, risk management and mitigation,' said Shane Latchman, managing director of Verisk Extreme Event Solutions team in London. 'Ultimately, this SRCC Model enables underwriters to balance risk and premium effectively and allow insurers to effectively model this risk.' The SRCC Model combines almost 40 years of catastrophe modeling expertise from Verisk's Extreme Event Solutions business with 15+ years of experience from its global risks business, Verisk Maplecroft, in quantifying political violence. This unique approach offers insurers and reinsurers a compelling solution that will enable them to: Estimate potential insured losses from SRCC events and quantify the potential financial impact of risk for individual locations and at the enterprise level. Create robust underwriting guidelines to specifically account for SRCC related damage and associated business interruption. Assess tail risk through a catalog of stochastic events which feature scenarios that are inherently plausible, but far worse than anything that has been seen historically. Address risk management and regulatory requirements by stress testing extreme disaster scenarios to reveal potential vulnerabilities before real disasters occur. The SRCC Model is available through Verisk's Extreme Events Solutions' Touchstone platform. Learn more here: About Verisk Verisk (Nasdaq: VRSK) is a leading strategic data analytics and technology partner to the global insurance industry. It empowers clients to strengthen operating efficiency, improve underwriting and claims outcomes, combat fraud and make informed decisions about global risks, including climate change, extreme events, sustainability and political issues. Through advanced data analytics, software, scientific research and deep industry knowledge, Verisk helps build global resilience for individuals, communities and businesses. With teams across more than 20 countries, Verisk consistently earns certification by Great Place to Work and fosters an inclusive culture where all team members feel they belong. For more, visit and the Verisk Newsroom. CONTACT: Jason McGeown Senior Director of Communications, Verisk Maplecroft in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data
