Latest news with #VincentStamer
Qatar Tribune
09-08-2025
- Business
- Qatar Tribune
German exports to US decline
Agencies China came close to overtaking the United States as Germany's largest trading partner in the first half of 2025, preliminary data from the German statistics office showed, as German exports to the US declined amid higher tariffs. German imports and exports with the US totaled about 125 billion euros ($145 billion) from January to June, while trade with China reached 122.8 billion euros, according to Reuters calculations. 'Although the US was able to defend its position as Germany's most important trading partner, the lead over German trade with China is razor-thin,' said Vincent Stamer, economist at Commerzbank. The US had overtaken China as Germany's top trading partner in 2024, ending an eight-year streak for China. The shift came as Germany sought to reduce its reliance on China, with Berlin citing political differences and accusing Beijing of unfair practices. Trade dynamics shifted again, however, in 2025 with Donald Trump's return to the White House and renewed tariffs. The EU's trade deal with the US in July set tariffs at 15 percent for most products. 'As the year progresses, losses in German exports to the US are likely to continue and even intensify,' said Juergen Matthes, head of international economic policy at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research. German exports to the US fell 3.9 percent to 77.6 billion euros in the first half compared to the same period last year. Commerzbank expects new US tariffs to slow Germany's exports to the US by 20 percent to 25 percent over the next two years. 'As a result, China is likely to regain the top spot among Germany's trading partners over the course of the year,' Stamer said. Imports from China surged 10.7 percent year-on-year in the first half, reaching 81.4 billion euros. 'Apparently, German companies and consumers find it difficult to replace Chinese goods,' Stamer said. The rise may indicate China has begun redirecting trade from the US to Europe, flooding the German and European market with cheaper goods, said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING. A significant undervaluation of the yuan against the euro is also making Chinese imports cheaper, said Cologne Institute's Matthes. German exports to China fell 14.2 percent to 41.4 billion euros, with exporters struggling amid increased competition from Chinesemanufacturers. The sharp decline in exports to China, combined with surging imports, has led to a record trade deficit of 40 billion euros, second only to 2022.
Reuters
08-08-2025
- Business
- Reuters
China narrows gap with US as Germany's biggest trading partner
BERLIN, Aug 8 (Reuters) - China came close to overtaking the United States as Germany's largest trading partner in the first half of 2025, preliminary data from the German statistics office showed, as German exports to the U.S. declined amid higher tariffs. German imports and exports with the U.S. totalled about 125 billion euros ($145 billion) from January to June, while trade with China reached 122.8 billion euros, according to Reuters calculations. "Although the U.S. was able to defend its position as Germany's most important trading partner, the lead over German trade with China is razor-thin," said Vincent Stamer, economist at Commerzbank. The U.S. had overtaken China as Germany's top trading partner in 2024, ending an eight-year streak for China. The shift came as Germany sought to reduce its reliance on China, with Berlin citing political differences and accusing Beijing of unfair practices. Trade dynamics shifted again, however, in 2025 with Donald Trump's return to the White House and renewed tariffs. The EU's trade deal with the U.S. in July set tariffs at 15% for most products. 'As the year progresses, losses in German exports to the U.S. are likely to continue and even intensify,' said Juergen Matthes, head of international economic policy at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research. German exports to the U.S. fell 3.9% to 77.6 billion euros in the first half compared to the same period last year. Commerzbank expects new U.S. tariffs to slow Germany's exports to the U.S. by 20% to 25% over the next two years. 'As a result, China is likely to regain the top spot among Germany's trading partners over the course of the year,' Stamer said. Imports from China surged 10.7% year-on-year in the first half, reaching 81.4 billion euros. 'Apparently, German companies and consumers find it difficult to replace Chinese goods,' Stamer said. The rise may indicate China has begun redirecting trade from the U.S. to Europe, flooding the German and European market with cheaper goods, said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING. A significant undervaluation of the yuan against the euro is also making Chinese imports cheaper, said Cologne Institute's Matthes. German exports to China fell 14.2% to 41.4 billion euros, with exporters struggling amid increased competition from Chinese manufacturers. The sharp decline in exports to China, combined with surging imports, has led to a record trade deficit of 40 billion euros, second only to 2022. 'All these developments are damaging the German economy and further exacerbating the industrial crisis,' Matthes said. ($1 = 0.8600 euros)
Reuters
06-08-2025
- Business
- Reuters
German industrial orders unexpectedly fall in June on subdued foreign demand
BERLIN, Aug 6 (Reuters) - German industrial orders unexpectedly fell in June, declining for a second straight month, due to falling demand from abroad, a trend that looks set to continue due to increased tariffs on exports to the United States, data showed on Wednesday. Orders were down by 1% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, the federal statistics office said. A Reuters poll of analysts had pointed to a rise of 1.0% after industrial orders fell 0.8% in May. The official May figure had been revised from an earlier estimate of a 1.4% drop. Foreign orders fell 3.0% on the month, while domestic ones rose 2.2%. Those from outside the euro zone dropped 7.8%, while inside the euro zone, they grew by 5.2%. "The decline in orders from outside the euro zone was particularly noticeable, which could be an indication of U.S. tariffs taking effect," said Commerzbank senior economist Vincent Stamer. "This means that an upturn in industrial orders is still a long way off." The new U.S. tariffs of 15% on goods from the European Union, which come into effect Thursday, are making German-made goods more expensive for its most important export customer. The economy ministry said it was not surprising that incoming orders were subject to strong fluctuations given the high levels of trade and geopolitical uncertainty. "In light of the now likely permanent increase in tariffs on exports to the U.S., the industrial sector is likely to be characterized by subdued foreign demand in the future," it said. June's negative development was primarily due to a 23.1% month-on-month drop in orders for other transport equipment, such as aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles. Orders also fell in the automotive industry and among manufacturers of metal products. Excluding big-ticket orders, which are often highly volatile, new orders were 0.5% higher in June than in the previous month. The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders in the period from April to June were 3.1% higher than in the previous three months.
