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U.S.-backed regime change has a checkered past — Iran may be no different
The reason that was successful was that the scale of the threat was global and existential, and so the commitment of the Allies was total, Vinjamuri said.
'The problem comes when states are ambivalent about their interests and commitments,' she added.
Even then, unforeseen consequences can emerge decades later — no less than in Iran itself.
In 1953, the CIA backed a coup against Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh and installed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in his place. That sowed the seeds of 1979's Islamic Revolution — and with it the anti-Western, repressive theocracy of Iran today.
This week, Trump is considering a possible military strike on Iran — openly musing that he could kill Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei but that he was choosing not to for now.
Among those alarmed at the prospect of regime change is French President Emmanuel Macron, who warned Tuesday it would create "chaos" in the region.
Even if Trump did assassinate Khamenei, 'assassinating the man at the top' rarely works, said Nic Cheeseman, a professor of democracy at England's University of Birmingham. 'Political systems are deeply entrenched and chopping off the most visible head of the hydra doesn't mean the whole system will collapse.'
Rather than using violence — 'which can encourage further conflict in the future' — a stable government 'is more likely to happen if it is achieved by domestic protest and social movements,' he said. 'The population also gets a founding democratic myth that can be recalled during future moments of struggle.'
