Latest news with #VipulBhowar
Time of India
6 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Market volatility ahead? Waterfield's Vipul Bhowar on sectors, valuations & what to buy
In a year marked by global trade tensions, delayed Fed rate cuts, and domestic uncertainties, investors are looking for clarity and conviction. To decode the current market mood and the road ahead, ET Markets spoke with Vipul Bhowar , Senior Director & Head of Equities at Waterfield Advisors. From the shifting portfolio strategies of HNIs and family offices to the outlook on mid and smallcaps, Bhowar offers deep insights on how earnings, sector rotations, and alternative investments are shaping capital allocation in 2025. Excerpts: Equity Market Outlook: Volatility or opportunity? Q. A lot is happening in the markets - geopolitical tensions, trade tariff concerns, and domestic triggers. Is the recent correction a sign of deeper volatility? Vipul Bhowar: Equity markets follow earnings. The recent volatility stems from an earnings slowdown. But in our investable universe of ~5,000 companies, we still see double-digit earnings growth. That's why markets recovered in March–May. The RBI's interest rate cut also helped, lowering the cost of capital while earnings improved. However, the new 25% tariffs (up from 10%) could introduce sector-specific volatility. But markets rarely fall twice for the same reason. If earnings continue to grow YoY, which current trends suggest, the market should hold. Volatility will likely remain limited to a few sectors. Portfolio Shifts: How HNIs & family offices are allocating Q. How are wealthy investors shifting exposure across asset classes? Vipul Bhowar: Three years ago, portfolios were typically split 50:50 between equity and fixed income, with equities skewed towards large caps. Today, we're seeing a 70:30 split, tilted more towards equities and quasi-equity products like REITs and InvITs. The non-equity bucket is where most changes are happening. Investors are increasingly allocating capital to equity or near-equity instruments, and this trend continues. Midcaps, smallcaps & sector rotation: What's overheated? Q. Are midcaps overheated? Where is the smart money moving? Vipul: On valuation averages, yes, midcaps look expensive. But balance sheets are the cleanest we've seen in 25+ years, especially in terms of median debt-to-equity. Most capex is happening in mid and smallcap sectors like energy and real estate — not large caps. So while midcaps may look expensive at first glance, the underlying growth and capex justify current valuations. That said, the broad-based rally in mid and smallcaps is done. Going forward, expect stock- and sector-specific moves. FIIs, fed cuts & global cues Q. FIIs have pulled out Rs 26,000–Rs 27,000 crore in just 10 days. Why the exodus? Vipul: While FIIs are selling in the secondary market, they're active in the primary market, especially IPOs. They're exiting old economy stocks growing at nominal GDP and reallocating to sectors showing higher growth. As for the Fed, recent US job data points to an economic slowdown. Earlier, the chance of a September rate cut was 41%. That's now risen to 80–90%. If rate cuts happen, FIIs will return to emerging markets like India. Rise of alternative investments: AIFs, private credit & more Neha: How are Indian investors responding to alternative investment products? Vipul: Investor behavior has changed significantly. We've created a "growth pool", ~10% of portfolios, comprising private equity, venture debt, and private credit. Clients are willing to lock in capital for 10 years in exchange for higher returns. This 10% is now under discussion; many want to raise it to 15%. We're also allocating to pre-IPOs, unlisted opportunities, and high-yield strategies. With fixed income less attractive, interest in these strategies is rising. How to invest in the remainder of 2025 Q. We're in the second half of 2025. What's your advice for new investors? What should they expect? Vipul: Entry valuations are high, market cap to GDP is at 130% versus the 20-year average of 90%. Don't expect 25% CAGR like in the past five years. We suggest deploying capital in tranches over 6 months. For FY26, Nifty EPS is expected at Rs 1,200 — implying fair value of ~24,000 at 20x PE. For FY27, assuming Rs 1,300 EPS, Nifty could be ~26,000. Markets are trading in this expected range. Maintain a mix of large, mid, and smallcap based on your risk profile. Allocate more to largecaps and balance the rest accordingly. Sectors to Watch: Themes within themes Q. Which sectors look promising? Vipul: We're seeing strength in 'sectors within sectors.' For example: Financials: Lending is consolidating, but non-lending plays, insurance, capital markets, are performing well. Tech: Traditional IT is slow, but digital tech (e.g. Swiggy, Eternal) is growing. Healthcare: Pharma has uncertainties, but hospitals are doing well. Real Estate Ancillaries: Real estate stocks have rallied, now we like ancillaries, electric goods, branded electronics, and defence. These pockets are showing consistent double-digit growth and merit capital allocation. Q. Is this a 'buy-the-dip' market? Any caution for investors? Vipul: Yes, buy the dip works but take a long-term view. Don't chase YoY returns. Markets are consolidating after a big rally, which is healthy. Keep deploying capital, participate in volatility, and avoid reacting emotionally to short-term swings.
Hans India
21-06-2025
- Business
- Hans India
FPI inflows remain resilient, SEBI move to further boost foreign investments: Analysts
Mumbai: The trend of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) experienced a reversal in April and demonstrated considerable strengthening in May, characterised by positive inflows, which continues as June progresses, analysts said on Saturday. On June 20, the FPI inflows in equity stood at Rs 7,940.70 crore, as per the NSE's latest data. According to market experts, the inflows recorded in May represented the highest level observed in eight months, signifying a resurgence of interest from foreign investors in the Indian markets. 'Nonetheless, geopolitical tensions, including the conflict between Israel and Iran, alongside global uncertainties, fostered a cautiously optimistic pattern in June,' said Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director-Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors. Enhancing domestic fundamentals and a favourable long-term growth outlook indicate that, should global conditions stabilise, India may experience more sustained and stable foreign portfolio investment inflows in the future, he added. India's economy continues to stand out as one of the world's fastest growing and most resilient, backed by strong macroeconomic fundamentals and a vibrant policy landscape. The nation's regulatory institutions, led by SEBI, have consistently pursued reforms aimed at deepening market participation, enhancing transparency, and simplifying compliance to attract global capital. In a landmark move to deepen the debt market and provide much needed liquidity; SEBI has announced regulatory relaxations exclusively for FPIs investing in Government Securities (G-Secs) in the recent board meeting. 'This forward-looking measure arrives on the heels of India's inclusion in global bond indices like the JP Morgan Global EM Bond Index and Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government Index, which is expected to attract large-scale FPI inflows,' said Manoj Purohit, Partner and Leader, Financial Services Tax, Tax and Regulatory Services, BDO India. SEBI's move reduces compliance burdens by harmonising KYC review timelines with RBI norms, exempting GS-FPIs from submitting investor group details, and permitting NRIs, OCIs, and Resident Indians to participate in GS-FPIs with fewer restrictions. Additionally, FPIs now enjoy a more relaxed timeline -- 30 days for disclosing material changes, up from 7 days earlier. These changes reflect SEBI's risk-based regulatory approach and are poised to deepen FPI engagement in India's sovereign debt market. As India's economic fundamentals remain robust, these progressive measures will strengthen the country's appeal as a stable and attractive investment destination for global institutional investors, said analysts.
Time of India
21-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
FIIs buy stocks worth Rs 8,710 crore this week, narrow June sell-off to Rs 4,192 crore
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers in June so far, offloading equities worth Rs 4,192 crore. However they turned buyers this week, buying shares worth Rs 8,710 crore. A strong buying activity on Friday unleashed the bulls as the Indian headline indices ended their three-session losing streak led by action in banks, energy and IT stocks. The FII activity on the NSE, BSE and MSEI in the capital market segment triggered purchases worth Rs 7,940.70 from the foreign buyers. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) preferred to book profits as they sold domestic stocks amounting to Rs 3,049.88 crore. Nifty gained 319.15 points or 1.29% to close at 25,112.40, the 30-stock S&P BSE Sensex finished at 82,408.17, rising by 1,046.30 points or 1.29% riding on individual contributions from heavyweights HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL). Commenting on the current trends, Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director-Listed Investments at Waterfield Advisors, said that the ongoing FPI pattern suggests a reversal in April, with considerable strength being demonstrated in May. "The inflows recorded in May represented the highest level observed in eight months, signifying a resurgence of interest from foreign investors in the Indian markets," he said. However, geopolitical tensions, including the conflict between Israel and Iran, alongside global uncertainties, fostered a cautiously optimistic pattern in June, Bhowar said. Live Events With the stabilisation in the global conditions, India may experience more sustained and stable foreign portfolio investment inflows in the future on the back of enhancing domestic fundamentals and a favourable long-term growth outlook, he opined. There are six more sessions left in June and their action would determine if they remain net buyers for the third successive month. In the fortnight ending June 15, FIIs sold local shares worth Rs 5,404 crore. The biggest takeaway was the financial services sectors where FIIs returned to buying with a purchase worth Rs 4,685 core versus a Rs 700 crore sell-off in the previous fortnight. The energy sector also saw good traction with Rs 1,199 crore worth of equity bought between June 1 and June 15 from Rs 390 crore in the previous fortnight. Among the worst hit was telecom, where FIIs were net sellers at Rs 887 crore versus a Rs 7,052 core investment between May 16 and May 31. Auto, consumer durables and FMCG were other big laggards. In 2025, FIIs have offloaded shares valuing Rs 96,683 crore. In the January-to-March quarter, equities worth Rs 1,16,574 were sold. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times) ETMarkets WhatsApp channel )
Economic Times
21-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
FIIs buy stocks worth Rs 8,710 crore this week, narrow June sell-off to Rs 4,192 crore
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers in June so far, offloading equities worth Rs 4,192 crore. However they turned buyers this week, buying shares worth Rs 8,710 crore. ADVERTISEMENT A strong buying activity on Friday unleashed the bulls as the Indian headline indices ended their three-session losing streak led by action in banks, energy and IT stocks. The FII activity on the NSE, BSE and MSEI in the capital market segment triggered purchases worth Rs 7,940.70 from the foreign buyers. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) preferred to book profits as they sold domestic stocks amounting to Rs 3,049.88 crore. Nifty gained 319.15 points or 1.29% to close at 25,112.40, the 30-stock S&P BSE Sensex finished at 82,408.17, rising by 1,046.30 points or 1.29% riding on individual contributions from heavyweights HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL). Commenting on the current trends, Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director-Listed Investments at Waterfield Advisors, said that the ongoing FPI pattern suggests a reversal in April, with considerable strength being demonstrated in May. "The inflows recorded in May represented the highest level observed in eight months, signifying a resurgence of interest from foreign investors in the Indian markets," he geopolitical tensions, including the conflict between Israel and Iran, alongside global uncertainties, fostered a cautiously optimistic pattern in June, Bhowar the stabilisation in the global conditions, India may experience more sustained and stable foreign portfolio investment inflows in the future on the back of enhancing domestic fundamentals and a favourable long-term growth outlook, he opined. ADVERTISEMENT There are six more sessions left in June and their action would determine if they remain net buyers for the third successive the fortnight ending June 15, FIIs sold local shares worth Rs 5,404 crore. The biggest takeaway was the financial services sectors where FIIs returned to buying with a purchase worth Rs 4,685 core versus a Rs 700 crore sell-off in the previous fortnight. The energy sector also saw good traction with Rs 1,199 crore worth of equity bought between June 1 and June 15 from Rs 390 crore in the previous fortnight. ADVERTISEMENT Among the worst hit was telecom, where FIIs were net sellers at Rs 887 crore versus a Rs 7,052 core investment between May 16 and May 31. Auto, consumer durables and FMCG were other big 2025, FIIs have offloaded shares valuing Rs 96,683 crore. In the January-to-March quarter, equities worth Rs 1,16,574 were sold. ADVERTISEMENT (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
21-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Mystery on the tracks! The curious case of rail stocks riding the defence wave without a ticket
As defence stocks roared after Operation Sindoor 's success, a mysterious rally unfolded on Dalal Street. Railway stocks, seemingly unconnected to missiles and military manoeuvres, surged alongside their battlefield counterparts. No big policy move. No fresh budget boost. No mega headline. And yet, stocks like Titagarh Rail and RITES climbed over 36% in just 6 trading days. What's fuelling this strange correlation? The numbers are hard to ignore. Defence stocks added Rs 1.8 lakh crore in market cap after India's successful military operation against Pakistan. Rail stocks weren't far behind with Rs 90,000 crore in gains. IRCON and RVNL jumped more than 30% between May 9 and 19 before profit booking took over on Tuesday. RailTel, Texmaco Rail, Jupiter Wagons, IRFC and BEML were all swept up in the rally. The same pattern had played out during the 2024 bull market — and it's back, without much in the way of new triggers. Market veterans are raising eyebrows. Vipul Bhowar, Head of Equities at Waterfield Advisors, believes the recent jump in railway stocks is less about fundamentals and more about investor sentiment. He points out that most railway stocks had corrected sharply from their 2024 peaks, falling 30% to 50%. Despite solid order books, there hasn't been a meaningful increase in the government's railway capex allocation. What we're seeing now, he says, is classic retail exuberance with traders chasing momentum rather than earnings. Also read | Defence stocks detonate in Rs 1.8 lakh crore boom. Is a ceasefire on the charts? While not obvious at first glance, the defence-railway link isn't entirely imagined either. Dr. Vikas Gupta of OmniScience Capital argues that the rise in rail stocks may well be an extension of the broader defence theme. With Operation Sindoor still potentially active, there is likely increased focus on logistics, mobilisation and connectivity — all of which require railway infrastructure. From troop movement to specialised military freight, the railways play a silent but strategic role in national defence. Quoting Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu, who wrote 'The Art of War' Book, he said the line between disorder and order lies in logistics. Therefore, Gupta said there are a lot of opportunities around other dimensions of defence beyond the pure-play weapons manufacturers. But even he cautions that sentiment may be running ahead of valuations. The exuberance is drawing comparisons to last year's mania, where PSU stocks — defence, rail, infra — all rallied on the promise of capex and Atmanirbhar Bharat theme. The euphoria, back then, ended with a painful correction. Bhowar also flags that while the structural story of Indian railways remains strong, many stocks are now trading above historical valuations. These companies are tethered to government orders and follow long business cycles. Without a meaningful spike in earnings or fresh policy announcements, current prices look stretched. Also read | Hunting for stocks to buy? 36 top bets from 8 portfolios that ruled April That concern is echoed by Akshay Badjate of Merisis PMS, who sees parallels between today's rally and the overheated peaks of 2024. He notes that while the railways sector is supported by a Rs 2.5 lakh crore budget and expected to see 15% revenue growth, stocks like IRFC — trading at 3.5x price-to-book despite stagnant earnings — are flashing warning signs. In his view, the current rally is being propped up more by investor frenzy than fundamentals. Some institutional investors have already stepped back. At Merisis, Badjate says the fund has adopted a 'wait and watch' stance on PSU capex plays, instead allocating capital to under-owned sectors like housing finance, pharmaceuticals, agri and metals — areas they believe offer better value. Even Kotak Institutional Equities has sounded the alarm. Sanjeev Prasad's recent note warned of irrational exuberance gripping the market, with mid- and small-caps — and particularly 'narrative stocks' like defence — trading at frothy valuations. He points out that the market has repeatedly bought into half-baked stories, only to be burned when the narrative collapses. There are, of course, genuine tailwinds. Tube Investments recently announced a Rs 1,000 crore train set contract — a deal that could revive momentum in its metal-formed division. But one deal does not make a sector-wide rally. So, is the defence-rail connection real or just a narrative investors are desperate to believe? What's clear is that in the current market, stocks need no justification. A story is enough. And right now, railways and defence are Dalal Street's hottest plot twist. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
