3 days ago
Weekend Wagers: What the Knicks, Andor and Daniel Day Lewis can teach us about this week's bets
Welcome to the Opening Line, where we look at ways to have a little fun while identifying intriguing wagers on the upcoming weekend's biggest events. This weekend, starting today, we've got the business end of the Eastern Conference finals, a World Series rematch, a collision at the top of the WNBA Western Conference and arguably the biggest annual sporting event in the world. Let's get to it!
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(All odds referenced as of Friday morning.)
Times: Friday at 10:10 p.m. ET, Saturday at 7:15 p.m. ET, Sunday at 7 p.m. ET
Watch: Apple TV+, FOX, ESPN
Bet: Yankees Moneyline on Friday (-108)
You know how Season 1 of Andor was basically a massively dense, overly knotty, elaborate setup just to get the title character to join the Rebel Alliance? I think it was inspired by MLB implementing all of interleague play just to get us this match-up. But if we are going to suffer through Rockies-White Sox, we might as well enjoy the spoils.
There are lots of different angles you can take for this battle between baseball's best teams. With a combined payroll of $624 million, last year's World Series contestants comfortably outspend the Brewers, Guardians, Rays, Pirates, Athletics, White Sox and Marlins combined. Which makes it almost statistically impossible that MLB's prized high-profile, nationally televised primetime game showcases a Will Warren vs. Landon Knack showdown. Given a choice, I would have guessed it's more likely those were names of characters in the new Wes Anderson movie than major league pitchers. Blind over is the bet there, as both teams look set to launch bottle rockets all over Chavez Ravine Saturday night.
There is another bet I like just a little more, though. The Dodgers, of course, won the World Series last season, but given their well-known injury woes, the -150 odds to win this series leave a lot to be desired. But rather than jump on the Yankees at +120, you are better off just reducing this bet down to a simple moneyline play on Fried-ay. The Yankees ace has been literally unbeatable this year, with a 7-0 record, and his league-leading 1.29 ERA is actually even lower on the road, where it sits at a comical 0.83 in five starts. Yes, the Dodgers have been huge home favorites over the recent years, but there's a reason NYY is favored in this matchup. Against any other team, you have to lay real juice when Max takes the mound, so you don't need the Force to know that near-even odds represent good value that his trip back to his hometown is a happy one.
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Time: Friday at 10 p.m. ET
Watch: ION
Bet: Minnesota Lynx -3.5 (-110)
As my colleague (he might disagree) Dan Shanoff covered in the excellent MoneyCall newsletter, the WNBA is facing a fascinating reality check with Caitlin Clark sidelined for a couple of weeks. But while Clark might draw box office like Tom Cruise, the Daniel Day-Lewis of the WNBA will still hopefully be in action on Friday — Napheesa Collier.
Collier is absolutely blitzing the league right now, averaging 26.8 and 7.8 rebounds, and is currently the heavy favorite to win MVP after finishing runner-up last season. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year's stellar play has led the Lynx straight to the top of the Western Conference, where they sit a single game ahead of their next opponents. A streak is certainly going to be snapped here, as the Mercury enter this duel flawless at home while the Lynx are just outright undefeated.
Defense has been the key to Phoenix's early-season rise, trailing only the defending champion New York Liberty in the category so far this season. But they've also been helped by playing three of the bottom five in this week's power rankings, so they certainly enter this game with plenty still to prove. Importantly, Collier was a late addition to the injury report with some concern over her knee. If she is good to go, back the Lynx in this spot, as it's a good bet that the Mercury leave the game with lingering questions, since there is no real answer for the current best player in the league. If Collier is scratched, Minnesota can still win, but make sure they flip to the underdog before backing them to get it done without their number one.
Time: Saturday at 8 p.m. ET
Watch: TNT
Bet: Knicks +3.5 (-110)
Given the NBA was about to completely miss out on one of their biggest weekends of the year, Spike Lee's choice of outfits last night was quite surprising and not just because he looked like he had spent the whole day shopping in Whoville. I was expecting something much more plain, like a gray top, black slacks and a whistle. But the Pacers starters hooked the league up instead, as they were a couple of garbage-time buckets away from having Jalen Brunson match their combined scoring by himself.
Now we head back to Indiana, and the early money is being poured in on the Pacers, with over 80 percent of the bets going their way in the first hour after Game 5 concluded. Some things in life just feel unnatural. Being asked if you'd like to tip as you check out at the proctologist's office is one of them. Fading the public by playing a New York team is another. But I'm going to do exactly that by backing the Knicks one more time.
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There is not a long line of stats, trends or maybe even logic behind the pick, as it just feels like the Knicks are the better team, and a seven-game series certainly seems like the right result. If you want even better value, perhaps hold off and live-bet the Knicks moneyline after the first quarter, as we can expect Tyrese Haliburton to ride the home-crowd energy to a hot start (keep yourself busy by going over on Brunson first-quarter points, as he's cleared the 8.5 line in every game this series).
But the team that has won the points-in-the-paint battle is 4-1 (Game 1 serves as the only exception), and the Pacers seem to have no answers for the Karl Anthony-Towns and Brunson dribble drives that are keeping the Knicks alive. As the clock winds down and the desperation ratchets up, look for the pair to stay aggressive and gift us one final competitive game on Monday before the Thunder rolls to the title.
Time: Saturday at 3 p.m. ET
Watch: CBS
Bet: Both teams to score: No (-105)
Welcome to the Super Bowl of Soccer, except it's actually watched by way more people. Globally, the Champions League Final is arguably the most anticipated day on the annual calendar, and this year's contest features two unlikely contestants.
Imagine the Cleveland Cavaliers won the title instead of the lottery the year after LeBron James took his talents to South Beach. That's what PSG is threatening to achieve after losing Kylian Mbappe, who was valued at roughly $220 million, for nothing to Real Madrid last off-season. But it's hard to cry too much for the oil-rich club that upended the sport by using their billions to bring additional global superstars like Neymar and Lionel Messi to Paris in pursuit of the Champions League title they've never won. This year's squad is a little more likable, but it's a bit like rooting for Thanos only after he destroys the Infinity Stones.
On the other side, Inter miraculously made the final after one of the greatest games the sport has ever seen in the semis against Barcelona. We'll all be telling our grandkids about that one, which the Inter players might actually be able to do immediately. With the oldest team in Europe's top five leagues, it feels like now or never for the Nerazzurri.
Coming into this contest, the only thing I'm sure of (besides that sports nicknames sound way cooler in other languages) is that we shouldn't expect to see the same fireworks we saw in the semis. On the whole, high-stakes finals tend to be far tighter than the games that led up to them, and the last six Champions League titles have all been settled by either 1-0 or 2-0 scorelines. Such low-scoring affairs stem from a combination of a cautious approach, born from a desire not to make mistakes in the intense spotlight, and the focus on shot suppression often built into modern football tactics. Inter has proven particularly prone to such outcomes, with their first nine games in this Champions League campaign ending with a zero for at least one side.
Chances are, this game comes down to a quick PSG goal from a turnover or Inter scoring from a corner after being out-possessed the whole game. But as long as both don't occur and the historical pattern holds, no matter who ends up holding the trophy with the big ears, this bet will have you joining the winning side in joyous celebration on Saturday evening.
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(P.S. If you want a bet with a little more juice, please read my friend Brett Koremenos' compelling article about defenders scoring in this match, which is an angle he's always absolutely adored.)
Toby Mergler is a freelance contributor to The Athletic and is the co-founder of the Extra Points Podcast Network. He's hosted podcasts for ESPN and served as a columnist for Vice Sports, and ESPN Page 2. He would tell you where he got his degrees, but the school offered him a sweetheart deal to actually erase his name, image and likeness.
(Photo of Jalen Brunson and Aaron Nesmith: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
