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Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Will Reliance shares deliver bumper returns for 48 lakh shareholders? 3 game-changing triggers ahead
Despite recent investor disappointment with Q1 results, Reliance Industries (RIL) is poised for significant growth, according to major brokerages. Jio's rising ARPU through tariff hikes, the ambitious new energy business entering execution phase, and the potential Jio IPO are key catalysts. Analysts project substantial value creation, with targets indicating confidence in RIL's transformation. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Here are 3 growth triggers that can ignite a rally in RIL shares: 1) Jio's ARPU Explosion Through Strategic Tariff Hikes Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads 2) New Energy Business: The Next Opportunity Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads 3) Jio IPO: The Ultimate Value Crystallization Event While billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries RIL ) disappointed investors with Q1 results that fell short of street expectations, leading to sharp selling pressure after a blistering 25% rally from March lows, major brokerages see a perfect storm of growth catalysts brewing that could trigger substantial value creation in the months mixed street reaction tells the tale of two stories: Kotak Equities downgraded the blue-chip Nifty heavyweight to 'Add' from 'Buy,' while global giants JP Morgan and Jefferies boldly upgraded their target prices by 8% and 5% respectively, signaling confidence in the oil-to-telecom giant's transformation delivered a "strong beat on higher margins" with ARPU climbing 1.3% quarter-on-quarter to ₹208.8 per month, according to Bernstein. But the real fireworks are yet to come."Over FY25-28, we expect Jio's ARPU to rise at 11% CAGR to Rs273, led by three tariff hikes of 10% each in end-2QFY26/27/28," Jefferies analysts project, with rising share of higher-ARPU home broadband users providing additional telecom powerhouse added 498.1 million subscribers (+1.7% QoQ) with EBITDA margins surging to 51.8% (170bps QoQ), as consolidated revenue hit ₹410.5 billion (+18.8% YoY).RIL's ambitious new energy push is entering the critical execution phase, with management expecting "Giga factories/new energy projects (Polysilicon, wafer, cell, module, batteries) to be completed in the next four to six quarters."The scale is staggering: "Reliance gigacomplex will be the largest end-to-end renewable energy manufacturing 4x of Tesla giga factory," Bernstein notes. The company plans to commission solar/cell capacities by March next year, with the 7,000-acre Kutch site having "potential to produce 125GW of power."Nuvama's analysis reveals the hidden value bomb: "Drawing a solar module/cell capacity comparison with Waaree (13.3/5.4GW) and Premier (4/3.2GW), whose EVs are ~$10 bn and $6 bn, respectively, RIL's 20GW fully integrated solar equipment manufacturing facility could potentially translate to a much higher EV."The numbers are eye-popping: "Ascribing a 15x EV/EBITDA to RIL's modules business (20GW capacity) yields an EV of USD20bn, which could trigger a valuation re-rating for RIL's stock price—similar to the trend seen following RJIO's launch in 2017."This fundamental shift in RIL's business model is reshaping its investment appeal. "Prior to venturing into retail/telecom, RIL's earnings growth was determined by either: a) capex (new refining/chemical capacities), or b) margin cycles," JP Morgan notes. "Reliance Retail + Telecom now account for ~54% of total FY25 consolidated EBITDA."The new energy vertical adds another dimension: "RIL's New Energy rollout shall not only add 50%-plus to PAT, but also re-rate valuations, including the O2C business given its net zero-carbon target by 2035," according to much-anticipated Jio IPO, though "pushed beyond 2025," remains the ace up RIL's sleeve for unlocking massive shareholder value. JP Morgan values Reliance Retail at $121 billion, trading at ~32x FY27E EBITDA—significantly below DMART's 42x multiple."Any crystallization of this retail valuation upside – through an IPO process or through further stake sales – could lead to further upside in RIL's stock," JP Morgan analysts confidence is palpable: "We expect Reliance's consolidated Ebitda to improve significantly in the near future, led by increasing share of Jio and Retail." The brokerage sees RIL's "conservative valuation" as making it "an attractive bet for most large cap portfolios" in an "otherwise extended valuation of the Indian market."JP Morgan's investment thesis is equally compelling: "In a market where most stocks are trading well above historical valuations, Reliance's fair relative valuations are an attraction." The firm expects RIL to "deliver positive free cash flow" with an EBITDA run-rate of approximately $20 billion reinforces the bullish narrative: "The stock currently trades at 12.1x and 23.3x FY27F EV/EBITDA and P/E, respectively. We reiterate our Buy rating for RIL."Investors will now laser-focus on the upcoming AGM within two months, looking for "further announcements on growth plans in FMCG, the ramp-up of new energy facilities, the expansion of the media business, acceleration of growth in Retail, the ramp-up of subscriber additions and monetisation for Jio along and the IPO of Jio."With RIL targeting to "double the size of its Jio and Retail businesses" alongside the new energy ramp-up "to the size of its O2C business," the company's ambitious goal of "doubling Reliance's size by the end of FY30" suddenly appears within striking distance, according to RIL's 48 lakh shareholders weathering the current volatility, the message from Street's finest is clear: the best may be yet to come.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Will Reliance shares deliver bumper returns for 48 lakh shareholders? 3 game-changing triggers ahead
Despite recent investor disappointment with Q1 results, Reliance Industries (RIL) is poised for significant growth, according to major brokerages. Jio's rising ARPU through tariff hikes, the ambitious new energy business entering execution phase, and the potential Jio IPO are key catalysts. Analysts project substantial value creation, with targets indicating confidence in RIL's transformation. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Here are 3 growth triggers that can ignite a rally in RIL shares: 1) Jio's ARPU Explosion Through Strategic Tariff Hikes Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads 2) New Energy Business: The Next Opportunity Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads 3) Jio IPO: The Ultimate Value Crystallization Event While billionaire Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries RIL ) disappointed investors with Q1 results that fell short of street expectations, leading to sharp selling pressure after a blistering 25% rally from March lows, major brokerages see a perfect storm of growth catalysts brewing that could trigger substantial value creation in the months mixed street reaction tells the tale of two stories: Kotak Equities downgraded the blue-chip Nifty heavyweight to 'Add' from 'Buy,' while global giants JP Morgan and Jefferies boldly upgraded their target prices by 8% and 5% respectively, signaling confidence in the oil-to-telecom giant's transformation delivered a "strong beat on higher margins" with ARPU climbing 1.3% quarter-on-quarter to ₹208.8 per month, according to Bernstein. But the real fireworks are yet to come."Over FY25-28, we expect Jio's ARPU to rise at 11% CAGR to Rs273, led by three tariff hikes of 10% each in end-2QFY26/27/28," Jefferies analysts project, with rising share of higher-ARPU home broadband users providing additional telecom powerhouse added 498.1 million subscribers (+1.7% QoQ) with EBITDA margins surging to 51.8% (170bps QoQ), as consolidated revenue hit ₹410.5 billion (+18.8% YoY).RIL's ambitious new energy push is entering the critical execution phase, with management expecting "Giga factories/new energy projects (Polysilicon, wafer, cell, module, batteries) to be completed in the next four to six quarters."The scale is staggering: "Reliance gigacomplex will be the largest end-to-end renewable energy manufacturing 4x of Tesla giga factory," Bernstein notes. The company plans to commission solar/cell capacities by March next year, with the 7,000-acre Kutch site having "potential to produce 125GW of power."Nuvama's analysis reveals the hidden value bomb: "Drawing a solar module/cell capacity comparison with Waaree (13.3/5.4GW) and Premier (4/3.2GW), whose EVs are ~$10 bn and $6 bn, respectively, RIL's 20GW fully integrated solar equipment manufacturing facility could potentially translate to a much higher EV."The numbers are eye-popping: "Ascribing a 15x EV/EBITDA to RIL's modules business (20GW capacity) yields an EV of USD20bn, which could trigger a valuation re-rating for RIL's stock price—similar to the trend seen following RJIO's launch in 2017."This fundamental shift in RIL's business model is reshaping its investment appeal. "Prior to venturing into retail/telecom, RIL's earnings growth was determined by either: a) capex (new refining/chemical capacities), or b) margin cycles," JP Morgan notes. "Reliance Retail + Telecom now account for ~54% of total FY25 consolidated EBITDA."The new energy vertical adds another dimension: "RIL's New Energy rollout shall not only add 50%-plus to PAT, but also re-rate valuations, including the O2C business given its net zero-carbon target by 2035," according to much-anticipated Jio IPO, though "pushed beyond 2025," remains the ace up RIL's sleeve for unlocking massive shareholder value. JP Morgan values Reliance Retail at $121 billion, trading at ~32x FY27E EBITDA—significantly below DMART's 42x multiple."Any crystallization of this retail valuation upside – through an IPO process or through further stake sales – could lead to further upside in RIL's stock," JP Morgan analysts confidence is palpable: "We expect Reliance's consolidated Ebitda to improve significantly in the near future, led by increasing share of Jio and Retail." The brokerage sees RIL's "conservative valuation" as making it "an attractive bet for most large cap portfolios" in an "otherwise extended valuation of the Indian market."JP Morgan's investment thesis is equally compelling: "In a market where most stocks are trading well above historical valuations, Reliance's fair relative valuations are an attraction." The firm expects RIL to "deliver positive free cash flow" with an EBITDA run-rate of approximately $20 billion reinforces the bullish narrative: "The stock currently trades at 12.1x and 23.3x FY27F EV/EBITDA and P/E, respectively. We reiterate our Buy rating for RIL."Investors will now laser-focus on the upcoming AGM within two months, looking for "further announcements on growth plans in FMCG, the ramp-up of new energy facilities, the expansion of the media business, acceleration of growth in Retail, the ramp-up of subscriber additions and monetisation for Jio along and the IPO of Jio."With RIL targeting to "double the size of its Jio and Retail businesses" alongside the new energy ramp-up "to the size of its O2C business," the company's ambitious goal of "doubling Reliance's size by the end of FY30" suddenly appears within striking distance, according to RIL's 48 lakh shareholders weathering the current volatility, the message from Street's finest is clear: the best may be yet to come.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Kotak Equities flags risks for Waaree, Premier Energies as US starts antidumping investigation, shares slide up to 2%
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Shares of Waaree Energies declined 1.6% to hit the day's low of Rs 3,070.10, while Premier Energies fell 1.2% to Rs 1,045.25 in Monday's trade, following a report by domestic brokerage Kotak Institutional Equities on the potential impact of a newly initiated antidumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) investigation on Indian solar exports According to the report, the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade has petitioned for an antidumping investigation into solar module imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos, citing dumping margins as high as 213.96% for Indian manufacturers. Kotak noted that this could significantly disrupt exports from India to the US its coverage universe, Kotak stated: 'We see Waaree, with 57% of its order book exposed to the US, being impacted. Premier Energies, which is more domestically focused, is less at risk.'On the outlook for both companies, Kotak said it is retaining its FY2026–28 estimates for Waaree and Premier, as the investigation is still at a preliminary stage. The brokerage maintained a 'Sell' rating on both companies, assigning a fair value of Rs 2,600 for Waaree and Rs 900 for report further noted that, after the recent passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and the imposition of AD/CVD duties on ASEAN countries, expectations of a revival in Indian solar exports 'may now be disrupted.'Kotak added that Waaree Energies is likely to be the most impacted, given that 20% of its revenue and 57% of its order book are driven by the US market. It also cautioned that any near-term boost in demand from US tax credits could be affected, although local US manufacturing capacity may offer some cushion to the anticipated dip in Indian the investigation remains in its early stages, Kotak noted that the impact on Indian module exports will remain under watch. It also flagged Adani Enterprises and Vikram Solar as other key Indian exporters potentially affected by this read: Early Q1 results show a slowdown in revenue and profit growth for Indian companies (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Kotak Equities flags risks for Waaree, Premier Energies as US starts antidumping investigation, shares slide up to 2%
Shares of Waaree Energies declined 1.6% to hit the day's low of Rs 3,070.10, while Premier Energies fell 1.2% to Rs 1,045.25 in Monday's trade, following a report by domestic brokerage Kotak Institutional Equities on the potential impact of a newly initiated antidumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) investigation on Indian solar exports . According to the report, the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade has petitioned for an antidumping investigation into solar module imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos, citing dumping margins as high as 213.96% for Indian manufacturers. Kotak noted that this could significantly disrupt exports from India to the US market. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category MCA CXO Finance Design Thinking Data Science others Project Management Others healthcare Data Analytics Digital Marketing Cybersecurity Healthcare Operations Management Public Policy Product Management Data Science Degree Technology Leadership MBA Skills you'll gain: Programming Proficiency Data Handling & Analysis Cybersecurity Awareness & Skills Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning Duration: 24 Months Vellore Institute of Technology VIT Master of Computer Applications Starts on Aug 14, 2024 Get Details by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Launching Soon: L&T's 35 Acre Township L & T Panvel Enquire Now Undo Within its coverage universe, Kotak stated: 'We see Waaree, with 57% of its order book exposed to the US, being impacted. Premier Energies, which is more domestically focused, is less at risk.' On the outlook for both companies, Kotak said it is retaining its FY2026–28 estimates for Waaree and Premier, as the investigation is still at a preliminary stage. The brokerage maintained a 'Sell' rating on both companies, assigning a fair value of Rs 2,600 for Waaree and Rs 900 for Premier. The report further noted that, after the recent passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and the imposition of AD/CVD duties on ASEAN countries, expectations of a revival in Indian solar exports 'may now be disrupted.' Live Events Kotak added that Waaree Energies is likely to be the most impacted, given that 20% of its revenue and 57% of its order book are driven by the US market. It also cautioned that any near-term boost in demand from US tax credits could be affected, although local US manufacturing capacity may offer some cushion to the anticipated dip in Indian exports. As the investigation remains in its early stages, Kotak noted that the impact on Indian module exports will remain under watch. It also flagged Adani Enterprises and Vikram Solar as other key Indian exporters potentially affected by this development. Also read: Early Q1 results show a slowdown in revenue and profit growth for Indian companies
Economic Times
3 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Waaree Renewable Technologies shares slide 6% amid US trade petition on Indian solar panel imports
Waaree Renewable shares: The company posted over a threefold rise in its profit for the June quarter, propelled by solid performance in its core business segments. Waaree Renewable Technologies' shares plunged 6.2% following a U.S. petition seeking tariffs on solar panel imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The petition alleges dumping and unfair subsidies, impacting Indian manufacturers. Despite this, Waaree reported a strong Q1 with a 205% jump in net profit to Rs 86.44 crore and a doubling of revenue. The U.S. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Investigation window Strong Q1 showing Shares of Waaree Renewable Technologies fell as much as 6.2% on Monday to Rs 1,112.35 on the BSE, following a report that a group of U.S. solar panel manufacturers had petitioned the Commerce Department to impose tariffs on imports from India, Indonesia, and petition, filed by the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade, accuses solar panel manufacturers in the three countries of dumping products at below-cost prices in the U.S. and receiving unfair government subsidies, according to a Reuters report. India is among the largest exporters of solar panels to the to the report, the petition marks the latest effort by the relatively small U.S. solar manufacturing sector to secure trade protection, aiming to safeguard recent multibillion-dollar investments and remain competitive against products largely made by Chinese firms operating petitioning group includes U.S.-based First Solar, Qcells (a division of Korea's Hanwha), and privately held companies Talon PV and Mission Solar. The same group previously succeeded in securing tariffs on imports from Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand, with those duties finalized earlier this report said the latest petition targets Chinese-owned firms accused of shifting production to Indonesia and Laos to bypass existing duties, while also directly accusing Indian-headquartered manufacturers of 'dumping cheap goods in the United States.' Imports from India, Indonesia, and Laos rose sharply to $1.6 billion in 2024 from $289 million in 2022, the petitioners Commerce Department has 20 days from the date of filing to decide whether to launch a formal investigation. Reuters noted that cases involving anti-dumping and countervailing duties typically take about a year to reach a final tariff solar panels installed in the U.S. are produced overseas, though domestic capacity has expanded from 7 gigawatts in 2020 to 50 GW in 2025, fueled by tax incentives under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Despite this, local output still lags behind projected demand, with the U.S. solar market expected to install nearly 43 GW annually through 2030, according to the Solar Energy Industries selloff in Waaree shares comes despite the company reporting robust earnings for the June quarter. Last week, Waaree Renewable posted a net profit of Rs 86.44 crore for Q1 FY26, up 205% from Rs 28.30 crore in the same period last year. Revenue from operations more than doubled year-on-year to Rs 603.18 crore, rising 155% from Rs 236.35 revenue rose 25.6% over the March quarter. However, total expenses surged 146% year-on-year to Rs 491.44 the previous quarter, the company had reported an 83% rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 93.76 crore, with the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) business accounting for nearly all of its revenue at Rs 469.72 crore. Revenue from power sales remained stable at Rs 6.85 recent gains—up 14% in the past month and nearly 11% over the last six months—Waaree shares remain down 20.3% year-to-date and have fallen 39% over the past 12 months.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
