10-02-2025
University of Arkansas economist bullish on 2025
Mervin Jebaraj, one of the state's top economists, said Friday he's "tariff-ied" by the possibility of trade retaliations.
Puns aside, the director of the University of Arkansas' Center for Business and Economic Research is generally bullish on the state's economic outlook for 2025.
The big picture: The annual business forecast luncheon helps Arkansas' business leaders and policymakers set expectations for the year ahead.
Speakers included Rupal Poltack, CEO of Walton Enterprises; Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board; Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac; and Jebaraj.
What they're saying: Some key takeaways from the forecast:
Global GDP is expected to continue growing, led by China, India and the U.S., but at a slower pace over the next couple of years, Peterson said.
Wealth in the U.S. has gained $50 trillion over the past five years and consumers continue to spend, according to Kather.
Yes, but: Much of that is in housing and stock equity, meaning the bottom half of the population is losing ground, he said.
Both Peterson and Khather agreed that inflation is decelerating but will likely be higher than it was pre-pandemic.
Friction point: Attainable housing continues to be a concern across the U.S. and in NWA because inventory increases slowly and the types of homes being built aren't intended for entry-level buyers.
Threat level: Showing a standoff scene from " The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," Jebaraj pointed out Arkansas' steel, advanced weapons and aircraft manufacturing are among leading exports.
All three of the industries along with agricultural products are major Arkansas exports to Canada and Mexico, so retaliatory tariffs could impact the state's economy.
Sad, but true: Noting the impact of avian influenza on poultry and eggs, Jebaraj suggested avocados could be more affordable to hide this Easter.
The bottom line: Jebaraj expects the population to continue growing in the 10,000 to 13,000 range.
Job growth should be nearly 6,000 in NWA this year, roughly on par with the past two years.
