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Boston Globe
19-05-2025
- Climate
- Boston Globe
This spring is among Boston's warmest and wettest on record. But what does summer hold?
Advertisement In the short run, things will likely cool off as we head into the final stretch of May. The 8-to14-day outlook portends a high likelihood of cooler-than-average temperatures as well as normal to wetter-than-average conditions. This is good planting weather, but not necessarily beach weather. Once we get to June, we enter meteorological summer, the warmest three months of the year. Summer also often brings intermittent precipitation, which is highly variable from town to town due to the sporadic nature of our summertime thunderstorms. During the winter, snow probably has the biggest impact on our collective lives, whereas in summer it's probably rain. A hot, dry summer we can kind of manage through, and outdoor activities usually won't be canceled. But with heavy rain and thunderstorms, you're going to be inside. Advertisement So how about this upcoming summer? Let me look at the two big variables: temperature and rainfall. The latest US Drought Monitor shows a dwindling drought for parts of Eastern New England. Boston Globe The outlook from NOAA brings cooler-than-average conditions for the summer months to the middle part of the country. This could be a key component to our weather here along the East Coast. For it to be cool as an average in the middle of the country, the jet stream has to have a bit of a dip in that area. That means more of a southerly flow over us, and that means humidity and frequent showers. Now, I'm not saying this is going to be a washout summer, but the current weather pattern is expected to feature more frequent oscillations of humidity, which often bring showers and thunderstorms. Keep in mind, we can still have refreshing dry air from Canada from time to time, it's just that when you average out June, July, and August, it will tend to be above average with precipitation. I would say the likelihood of a new drought is less as well. Above-average precipitation is forecast through June. WeatherBell The entire country is likely to see hotter or above-average temperatures this summer. Boston Globe A summer that brings more frequent precipitation is often accompanied by long bouts of humidity. Thus, even if we're not shattering heat records themselves, it can still be a very uncomfortable season ahead. Advertisement Right now, the temperature outlook is for a hotter, above-average summer. One big caveat here: We could have a very wet June, significantly above average, and a very dry July and August, slightly below average, and still end up with a wetter than average summer. We could also have a cool couple of weeks in the middle of July, but end up warmer than average based on the other 10. So the devil, as they say, is in the details, and for that you'll need to look at the weekly forecast, not the seasonal one. The East Coast, including New England, may likely see above-average precipitation this summer. Boston Globe
Boston Globe
09-05-2025
- Climate
- Boston Globe
Central Mass. pulls out of monthslong drought as other areas of New England improve
The state also downgraded the Boston area and the rest of the northeast region to a 'mild drought,' although Cape Cod and the islands remain at a Level 2 'significant drought.' 'Over the past three months, the Cape and Islands regions have experienced 20-40 percent below-average precipitation,' the state said Friday. Massachusetts environment officials said Friday that the central part of the state has pulled out of the monthslong drought while other parts continue to show improvement. Mass. Department of Energy and Environmental Affairs Advertisement This recent report from the state seems in line with the federal Drought Monitor, which was released Thursday, and also showed a decline in our drought across New England. The numbers are down and we're moving in a better direction. The US Drought Monitor has shown improvement in the drought situation across New England. US Drought Monitor The European model, our most accurate, shows wetter than average conditions heading into Memorial Day weekend. Another great sign that this cycle of drought is nearly over. Rainfall is expected to be above average in the coming two weeks. WeatherBell This week, I listened in on the Massachusetts Drought Management Task Force's monthly call and it was, to be honest, quite enlightening. There were at least two dozen or so experts, including hydrologists, on the call from various parts of the state, all with their specific areas of expertise, contributing to the ultimate decision on which regions should remain in this monthslong drought or whether a drought level should be lowered. Advertisement It felt like what I imagined a Federal Reserve meeting is like, where you have different experts talking about different variables in the economy and people deciding whether or not you're going to raise interest rates, lower them, or leave them the same. Different municipalities have to react differently to the various drought statuses so the impact to individual homeowners is real. Although we've recently seen average or above average rainfall, some towns still have outdoor water restrictions. There's a lot of variables at stake: from streamflow to groundwater to average precipitation. Different areas even within a region might have conflicting information, with one part of a region having recovered groundwater better than another, so it's a little bit of an inexact science. For those of us gardening, there's plenty of moisture in the ground right now. I was moving some things this week and noticed how saturated the soil felt. Deep below where I'm planting at the groundwater level, some areas have still not completely recovered from the drought last fall and winter. This is especially true over the Cape and the islands, where it's a different climate zone and the soils are also very different, so drought can have a bigger impact. Whether or not we have adequate precipitation in the summer months is a bit of guesswork. What I do know is that after the multi-year droughts of the 1960s, the weather eventually balances. In our warming climate, precipitation is actually forecast to be greater but also interspersed with more frequent extremes of less precipitation. Advertisement In other words, over the course of a year or 18 months, precipitation may look quite normal, but within that timeframe, there can be dramatic wet or dry periods. No one can control the weather, but we can be smart in those periods when the weather is seemingly erratic, and around here, that's a lot.
Boston Globe
18-02-2025
- Climate
- Boston Globe
New England's cold weather persists with influx of biting Arctic air
New England will be on the fringe of this blast of cold air, but it will still feel blustery cold here — slipping 5 to 15 degrees below normal through Thursday. Advertisement A shot of Arctic cold will descend into the middle part of the country throughout the week, with some of that cold air reaching New England. Pivotal Weather Where is all this cold really coming from? Many news outlets are quick to label these shots of cold air as the polar vortex, but these frigid conditions are actually unrelated to the vortex - the swirling winds high above the Arctic. Instead, a very strong upper-level low is responsible for the bitter cold air we're experiencing now. Essentially, this is a powerful wind storm in the middle level of our atmosphere that doesn't produce precipitable weather like snow, but drives cold air. The low is helping fuel strong surface high pressure, reaching over 1,050 millibars. High pressure is falling air and it's pulling down Arctic air from the back side of the upper-level storm, slinging this exceptionally cold, dry air across broad areas of the US as it moves. An upper-level low, in purple, is fueling a surface high pressure to deliver arctic air through the Lower 48 this week. Pivotal Weather The jet stream is digging south through the core of the country, which pulls the Arctic air to the south and southeast, leaving places like Minneapolis, Chicago, Kansas City, and even Dallas, with temperatures plunging 20 to 40 degrees below average. Meanwhile, as the jet stream bends toward New England, it's helping keep our region protected from the deepest cold. Advertisement The jet stream digs south through the middle part of the country, but will stay close enough to New England to avoid the deepest cold from entering the region. Boston Globe As I mentioned, the cold air we're experiencing is not the actual polar vortex, which right now looks healthy and intact. Remember, the polar vortex is very high up in the atmosphere, where it's usually neatly contained. Occasionally, a portion of the polar vortex will break off and push frigid air into the Lower 48 during the winter, but that is not the case this week. The polar vortex can be seen contained in the higher atmosphere over Northern Canada and Greenland. WeatherBell What can New England expect? With the fringe of the cold air creeping into New England, temperatures will stay mostly in the 20s this week with the best chance to get back near freezing on Friday. Overnight lows will likely stick to the low to mid-teens during this stretch. The good news is that the wind will relax as the week goes on as Dave mentioned in his forecast today - which will help take that added bite out of the air. You can keep track of the cold throughout the next few days below. It'll be a below-average cold week across New England with morning temperatures in the single digits and teens while slowly building marginally warmer throughout the week. Boston Globe As of now, it looks we will have to wait until the weekend before temperatures finally break above freezing across parts of Southern New England, including Boston. We could see highs in the mid- to upper 30s on Saturday and Sunday. After that, it looks like a bit of a warmup is in store. for our that will arrive straight into your inbox bright and early each weekday morning. Ken Mahan can be reached at
