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Business Recorder
5 hours ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Wall Street Week Ahead: Jobs data, tax bill, trade on tap for rebounding US stocks
NEW YORK: Key US economic data, developments with federal tax-and-spending legislation and twists and turns on trade all are poised to influence equities in the coming week, with the US market closing in on record highs. The S&P 500 was set for a weekly gain with the benchmark index on Thursday ending about 4% from its February all-time high. Investors at the end of the week were grappling with implications from legal rulings involving efforts to block most of President Donald Trump's tariffs. Trump's trade war has whipsawed global markets for weeks on concerns about economic fallout. The coming week also brings a raft of economic and labor market data, headlined by the monthly US employment report out on Friday. 'Now that we're back up here not all that far from the record high, I think the hard data needs to hold in better than the market expects to really advance from here,' said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The employment report for May is expected to show an increase of 130,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll of economists, which would be a step down from growth of 177,000 the prior month. Investors have been eager to learn how Trump's tariffs may be rippling through the economy, especially in the wake of his April 2 'Liberation Day' announcement of sweeping levies on imports. The May data represents a full month of 'how businesses have been handling some of the tariff uncertainty and some of the pressures in the market,' said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. Still, an overly strong employment report, such as growth of over 200,000 jobs, might be viewed warily by the market because it could delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management Corp. Investors have reduced bets in recent weeks on the amount of expected Fed easing this year, with about two rate cuts priced in by December, according to LSEG data. Minutes of their latest meeting released this week showed Fed officials acknowledged they could face 'difficult tradeoffs' in coming months with rising inflation alongside rising unemployment. Fiscal legislation in Washington will also be in focus. The Senate will start considering a tax-and-spending bill passed earlier this month by the House of Representatives. Trump said this week he plans to negotiate aspects of the 'big, beautiful' tax bill, a day after billionaire Elon Musk said the bill detracts from efforts to reduce the US budget deficit. The bill, which will add an estimated $3.8 trillion to the federal government's $36.2 trillion in debt over the next decade, has focused attention on the impact of increasing deficits on the Treasury market. Rising bond yields have pressured stocks in recent weeks. The shifting tariff backdrop also appeared likely to influence asset prices. Equities rebounded in recent weeks after Trump eased his harshest tariffs, but the situation remains in flux as Washington negotiates with trading partners. On Thursday, for instance, stocks rose early the session after a US trade court blocked many of Trump's tariffs, but gains faded during the session. Later, a federal appeals court reinstated the tariffs, further muddying the backdrop. 'There's initial excitement and then the reality set in that this is just another step in this process and it really hasn't clarified very much,' Kuby said.
Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Wall St Week Ahead-Jobs data, tax bill, trade on tap for rebounding US stocks
Nonfarm payrolls for May due on June 6 Fiscal legislation in focus in Washington Rulings on Trump's tariffs muddies trade backdrop NEW YORK, - Key U.S. economic data, developments with federal tax-and-spending legislation and twists and turns on trade all are poised to influence equities in the coming week, with the U.S. market closing in on record highs. The S&P 500 was set for a weekly gain with the benchmark index on Thursday ending about 4% from its February all-time high. Investors at the end of the week were grappling with implications from legal rulings involving efforts to block most of President Donald Trump's tariffs. Trump's trade war has whipsawed global markets for weeks on concerns about economic fallout. The coming week also brings a raft of economic and labor market data, headlined by the monthly U.S. employment report out on Friday. "Now that we're back up here not all that far from the record high, I think the hard data needs to hold in better than the market expects to really advance from here," said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The employment report for May is expected to show an increase of 130,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll of economists, which would be a step down from growth of 177,000 the prior month. Investors have been eager to learn how Trump's tariffs may be rippling through the economy, especially in the wake of his April 2 "Liberation Day" announcement of sweeping levies on imports. The May data represents a full month of "how businesses have been handling some of the tariff uncertainty and some of the pressures in the market," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. Still, an overly strong employment report, such as growth of over 200,000 jobs, might be viewed warily by the market because it could delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management Corp. Investors have reduced bets in recent weeks on the amount of expected Fed easing this year, with about two rate cuts priced in by December, according to LSEG data. Minutes of their latest meeting released this week showed Fed officials acknowledged they could face "difficult tradeoffs" in coming months with rising inflation alongside rising unemployment. Fiscal legislation in Washington will also be in focus. The Senate will start considering a tax-and-spending bill passed earlier this month by the House of Representatives. Trump said this week he plans to negotiate aspects of the "big, beautiful" tax bill, a day after billionaire Elon Musk said the bill detracts from efforts to reduce the U.S. budget deficit. The bill, which will add an estimated $3.8 trillion to the federal government's $36.2 trillion in debt over the next decade, has focused attention on the impact of increasing deficits on the Treasury market. Rising bond yields have pressured stocks in recent weeks. The shifting tariff backdrop also appeared likely to influence asset prices. Equities rebounded in recent weeks after Trump eased his harshest tariffs, but the situation remains in flux as Washington negotiates with trading partners. On Thursday, for instance, stocks rose early the session after a U.S. trade court blocked many of Trump's tariffs, but gains faded during the session. Later, a federal appeals court reinstated the tariffs, further muddying the backdrop. "There's initial excitement and then the reality set in that this is just another step in this process and it really hasn't clarified very much," Kuby said. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
With Trump tariff jitters, S&P 500 to finish year nearly even with 2024: Reuters poll
By Caroline Valetkevitch NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 will finish the year near current levels, according to a Reuters poll, after many strategists in recent months cut their 2025 forecast for the index over uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. Based on the median forecast of 51 equity strategists, analysts, brokers and portfolio managers collected May 15-28, the year-end target for the benchmark S&P 500 is 5,900, down from 6,500 in a February poll by Reuters. The S&P 500 ended Tuesday at 5,921.54. The market will remain choppy, strategists said, while seven out of 14 respondents who answered a question on profit growth said S&P 500 earnings will be marginally higher in 2025 than in 2024 and two said significantly higher. Five said they would be marginally lower. Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said the firm lowered its year-end target to 6,000 recently from 6,500 set at the start of the year. "Clearly earnings will be impacted by what's going on with tariffs," he said. "Our belief is tariffs are a tax and some combination of U.S. consumers, U.S. companies along with international producers and companies will pay the taxes. In essence, that kind of wealth transfer comes out of earnings to a certain extent," he added. According to LSEG, S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase 8.4% in 2025 compared with 12.1% in 2024. But the 2025 estimate is down sharply from 14% growth estimated on January 1. Trade developments have whipsawed the stock market this year, especially after Trump's April 2 announcement of sweeping tariffs on imports globally. In his latest move, Trump on Sunday backed down from his threat of a 50% tariff against the European Union, delaying its implementation until July 9 to allow for negotiations between the White House and the 27-nation bloc. The move prompted Brussels to fast track preparations for trade talks. Following a Tuesday rally, the S&P 500 is up just 0.7% for the year. But strategists say the back-and-forth nature of tariff negotiations has made predicting what the index will do tough. "It's very difficult to forecast given the tariff uncertainty and the changing dynamics that seem to happen daily," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan. "There's just a higher risk premium that has to be put on stocks, and that's going to be with us through the rest of this year." He said his firm's "base" target is 5,600 for the S&P 500 for this year, but a "6,000 to 5,600 range seems very reasonable based on the tariff environment not really causing a recession or deteriorating corporate profits too much." Some strategists have raised their S&P 500 forecasts recently. Last week, David Lefkowitz, head of U.S. equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote that the firm was increasing its year-end target to 6,000 from 5,800 partly because of a "solid first-quarter earnings season". Concerns over the U.S. debt load have added to recent jitters and a "sell America" view by some investors. Moody's downgraded its U.S. credit rating on May 16, and the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives passed Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill last week. The bill goes to the U.S. Senate next for review where investors worry spending cuts could be whittled down, growing the deficit. The S&P 500 posted gains exceeding 20% in both 2024 and 2023, helped by megacap technology stocks and optimism over the business potential of artificial intelligence. While the S&P 500 technology sector remains down 1.7% so far for 2025, it has been bouncing back, and some investors still see it as a good bet going forward. "Technology will likely remain volatile, but any downturns we get in tech, investors should use that as a long-term buying opportunity," Saglimbene said, noting tech profit growth should hold up. Samana said Wells Fargo Investment Institute likes energy, financials and communication services and noted the firm "took the opportunity in the middle of the pullback to upgrade tech." He is cautioning investors against consumer staples and utilities. At the same time, Eric Teal, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management, expects the Dow to end the year at 48,000 and to outperform the S&P 500 this year "due to more industrial and attractively valued companies and less-concentrated technology exposure." The poll has the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing this year at 43,708, down from 47,024 in the Reuters February poll. The index closed at 42,343.65 on Tuesday. (Other stories from the Reuters Q2 global stock markets poll package) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
With Trump tariff jitters, S&P 500 to finish year nearly even with 2024: Reuters poll
By Caroline Valetkevitch NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 will finish the year near current levels, according to a Reuters poll, after many strategists in recent months cut their 2025 forecast for the index over uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. Based on the median forecast of 51 equity strategists, analysts, brokers and portfolio managers collected May 15-28, the year-end target for the benchmark S&P 500 is 5,900, down from 6,500 in a February poll by Reuters. The S&P 500 ended Tuesday at 5,921.54. The market will remain choppy, strategists said, while seven out of 14 respondents who answered a question on profit growth said S&P 500 earnings will be marginally higher in 2025 than in 2024 and two said significantly higher. Five said they would be marginally lower. Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said the firm lowered its year-end target to 6,000 recently from 6,500 set at the start of the year. "Clearly earnings will be impacted by what's going on with tariffs," he said. "Our belief is tariffs are a tax and some combination of U.S. consumers, U.S. companies along with international producers and companies will pay the taxes. In essence, that kind of wealth transfer comes out of earnings to a certain extent," he added. According to LSEG, S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase 8.4% in 2025 compared with 12.1% in 2024. But the 2025 estimate is down sharply from 14% growth estimated on January 1. Trade developments have whipsawed the stock market this year, especially after Trump's April 2 announcement of sweeping tariffs on imports globally. In his latest move, Trump on Sunday backed down from his threat of a 50% tariff against the European Union, delaying its implementation until July 9 to allow for negotiations between the White House and the 27-nation bloc. The move prompted Brussels to fast track preparations for trade talks. Following a Tuesday rally, the S&P 500 is up just 0.7% for the year. But strategists say the back-and-forth nature of tariff negotiations has made predicting what the index will do tough. "It's very difficult to forecast given the tariff uncertainty and the changing dynamics that seem to happen daily," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan. "There's just a higher risk premium that has to be put on stocks, and that's going to be with us through the rest of this year." He said his firm's "base" target is 5,600 for the S&P 500 for this year, but a "6,000 to 5,600 range seems very reasonable based on the tariff environment not really causing a recession or deteriorating corporate profits too much." Some strategists have raised their S&P 500 forecasts recently. Last week, David Lefkowitz, head of U.S. equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote that the firm was increasing its year-end target to 6,000 from 5,800 partly because of a "solid first-quarter earnings season". Concerns over the U.S. debt load have added to recent jitters and a "sell America" view by some investors. Moody's downgraded its U.S. credit rating on May 16, and the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives passed Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill last week. The bill goes to the U.S. Senate next for review where investors worry spending cuts could be whittled down, growing the deficit. The S&P 500 posted gains exceeding 20% in both 2024 and 2023, helped by megacap technology stocks and optimism over the business potential of artificial intelligence. While the S&P 500 technology sector remains down 1.7% so far for 2025, it has been bouncing back, and some investors still see it as a good bet going forward. "Technology will likely remain volatile, but any downturns we get in tech, investors should use that as a long-term buying opportunity," Saglimbene said, noting tech profit growth should hold up. Samana said Wells Fargo Investment Institute likes energy, financials and communication services and noted the firm "took the opportunity in the middle of the pullback to upgrade tech." He is cautioning investors against consumer staples and utilities. At the same time, Eric Teal, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management, expects the Dow to end the year at 48,000 and to outperform the S&P 500 this year "due to more industrial and attractively valued companies and less-concentrated technology exposure." The poll has the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing this year at 43,708, down from 47,024 in the Reuters February poll. The index closed at 42,343.65 on Tuesday. (Other stories from the Reuters Q2 global stock markets poll package)
CNBC
23-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Wall Street's reaction to Trump's latest tariff threats may show stocks are range-bound
The latest tariff escalation from President Donald Trump rattled Wall Street on Friday, but the relatively muted decline for stocks might be a sign that the market is somewhat stuck until there is greater official clarity. Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in a note that Friday's comments by the president showed that tariffs "remain material risks" to the market, but not enough to justify bailing out of stocks. "The uncertainty is likely to promote range trading, and we favor neither chasing rallies nor selling on weakness," Christopher wrote. Plenty of traders seemed to have the same idea on Friday. The S & P 500 was down about 1.3% at its lows of the morning but trimmed those losses as the day wore on. .SPX 1D mountain The S & P 500 closed well above its low on Friday. Edward Jones investment strategist Angelo Kourkafas said Friday's market action is a sign that traders may be "getting insensitive to the constant stream of headlines." The S & P 500 ended the week by falling for four straight sessions, but it is still above the levels dating from before Trump raised tariffs in what he called "Liberation Day." Kourkafas echoed the idea that stocks could be range bound as the tariff negotiations drag into the summer. "Valuations have made the round trip, while earnings estimates have come down. So we're going to need more concrete deals to see further gains," the strategist said.
