Latest news with #WesRumbaugh
Vancouver Sun
9 hours ago
- Politics
- Vancouver Sun
Why are Iranian missiles hitting Israel? What to know about Iron Dome and other defence systems
It's not just the so-called Iron Dome that's protecting Israel from hundreds of Iranian missiles. The term Iron Dome has become 'a stand-in for Israeli missile defence more broadly; so, it's kind of like how we use Kleenex to describe every type of facial tissue,' said Wes Rumbaugh, a fellow in the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Defence systems known as David's Sling and The Arrow are also both helping Israel to intercept and destroy long-range missiles fired from Iran. But even Israel's vaunted missile defence system can't stop everything. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. The Iranian missile attacks began June 13 after Israel launched what it called a pre-emptive strike to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Operation Rising Lion targeted Iranian nuclear sites and military installations, killing hundreds, including several of the country's top military leaders. 'Iran retaliated by firing waves of ballistic missiles at Israel, where explosions flared in the skies over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv and shook the buildings below,' the Associated Press reported Saturday. The Jerusalem Post reported Monday that the Israeli Defence Force 'provided its first statistics of the war on its shoot down success against Iran's ballistic missiles, setting it at 80-90 per cent, with only about 5-10 per cent of ballistic missiles hitting actual residential areas.' Per the Post, 'eight more Israeli civilians were killed in Iran's Sunday-Monday middle-of-the-night attacks, bringing the total number of deaths to 24, with one more missing person expected to be declared dead in the coming hours.' Here's what we know about Israel's missile defence systems, including how they work and why some missiles are still getting through. Israel fields three tiers of missile defence systems, Rumbaugh said. 'At the lowest tier is Iron Dome, which has gotten more popularity just because it gets used a lot more often against rocket and maybe lower-tier cruise missile attacks. Every time that Hamas shoots rockets at Israel, that's where Iron Dome comes in.' Recent exchanges with Iran 'are more illustrative of some of the higher tier systems — that's The Arrow missile defence system or the David's Sling missile defence system,' he said. 'Those systems intercept longer range missiles coming from Iranian territory. The Arrow system intercepts them' outside of the earth's atmosphere, Rumbaugh said. 'When it comes to missile defence systems, all of them work in a similar way,' Rumbaugh said. They all have radar systems that detect the incoming threat, some sort of control system that manages data coming in from all the various sensors 'that allows them to form a track and then translate that information to a watcher system that then engages the threat,' he said. 'In all of these cases, the engagement system is a surface-to-air missile that goes up and intercepts the threat through kinetic energy.' It reportedly costs about $50,000 to fire one interceptor from the Iron Dome system, and each missile fired from the other two would likely cost more than that, Rumbaugh said. Rumbaugh noted that the U.S. contributes about $500 million a year toward Israel's missile defence. 'Right now, I think you're getting a lot of engagements for, most likely, The Arrow system,' he said, noting Germany is acquiring the Israeli-developed system for its own protection. 'We're seeing long-range missiles fired from Iranian territory to Israel, and so to engage those at the higher speeds, you want to engage them a little bit farther away.' The further a missile travels, the faster it will be moving 'because it goes up to a higher apogee and then is coming down at a quicker rate, and so you need an interceptor that is just a little bit more capable. The Iron Dome is designed to be able to intercept smaller rocket systems like the Katyusha rockets that Hamas fields.' While the Iron Dome isn't much use against long-range missiles, it would be capable of defending against Iranian drone attacks, Rumbaugh pointed out. 'It is far too soon to have a conclusive assessment of effectiveness of the systems,' he said. 'We saw multiple examples of reasonable effectiveness of Israeli missile defence systems against Iranian attack last year. The question going forward … will be just when do the inventories start to deplete of interceptor missiles? There's not an infinite supply of these capabilities.' There are also reports, he said, of the U.S. Navy intercepting Iranian missiles with their Standard Missile 3, a ship-based surface-to-air missile. It's difficult to determine 'from grainy Twitter videos' what Iranian missiles are getting through to Israel, he said. 'There's no such thing as a perfect air and missile defence system,' Rumbaugh said. 'It's not going to stop every single missile…. Because it's just a very technical, challenging mission set, it's going to be a challenge to have a perfect defence. And as inventories sort of deplete, Israel is going to have to get more choosy and will have to make more difficult decisions about its interceptor usage and it's going to have to prioritize certain target sets or certain areas for defence over others.' Some Israeli citizens might be surprised to see missiles making it through the country's defences, Rumbaugh said. 'But I think the Israeli military probably knew and would have … factored into its decision to launch these strikes that at least some are going to get through. Even when Iron Dome is defending against rocket attacks, some of those rockets get through and, to some degree, that's occasionally a decision of the system.' If the Iron Dome detects a missile or a rocket 'isn't going toward a highly populated area, they'll preserve interceptors by not engaging that particular missile,' Rumbaugh said. The Israeli defence establishment is obliged to let the public know about casualties and what they can expect in terms of missile attacks, he said. 'The Israeli public does not want to live near their bomb shelters for an indefinite period of time,' Rumbaugh said. Rumbaugh couldn't say when Israel will run out of interceptors. 'Those sorts of inventory numbers are pretty tightly held secrets for a reason. You don't want to say how many missiles it takes to exhaust your inventory' because that would help Iran plan its attacks, Rumbaugh said. Though he noted Israel has 'managed to make the defensive task more tractable with some of their efforts to destroy Iranian missile production bases as well as destroying Iranian missiles and launchers through some of their air strikes.' But it's 'difficult to get them all,' he said. 'Both the United States and Israel have tried to eliminate the Houthis' abilities to launch missiles in the Red Sea over the last couple of years with limited success.' This is likely 'the most sustained and long-term defence' Israel has mounted against ballistic missiles, Rumbaugh said. 'They've dealt with periods where there has been lots of rocket fire from Hamas and other groups in the area,' including Hezbollah, he said. Those might have involved deploying more interceptors, Rumbaugh said. 'But the technical sophistication of the long-range missiles that Iran is firing, combined with the period over which Israel is having to defend (itself) over multiple days,' means this has been one of the 'longer range air and missile defence engagements that Israel has seen.' Israeli air bases are likely on Iran's top list of targets, he said. 'They probably need to disrupt Israeli air operations as much as possible, considering that those are what are delivering the majority of the weapons on Iranian territory right now that are destroying some of the nuclear infrastructure and are being used to carry out the attacks on Iranian military leadership,' Rumbaugh said. 'But then as the (supply of) Iranian missiles gets lower and lower, do you start to shift your focus toward civilian areas to sort of start inflicting punishment on civilian areas in an attempt to create pressure on the Israeli government to stop becomes one of the considerations that Iran's leadership has to make.' Israel hasn't been able to hit some Iranian nuclear facilities 'because they're buried deep in the mountains and they would need certain munitions types that they don't have and that the United States fields in terms of the massive ordnance penetrator type weapons,' known as Bunker Busters, Rumbaugh said. 'But is the goal to entirely roll back Iran's civilian nuclear industry? Or is Israel's goal to weaken (and) reduce the capacity of Iran's missile capabilities?' He questions whether regime change in Iran is the goal of Israeli air strikes. 'I'm not seeing Israel being able to mobilize the sort of ground forces they would need to impose regime change militarily, so will air strikes be sufficient is sort of an unclear picture for me.' Israel has said this could be a 'multi-week' set of operations, according to Rumbaugh. 'So, we might just be at the start of this.'
Calgary Herald
9 hours ago
- Politics
- Calgary Herald
Why are Iranian missiles hitting Israel? What to know about Iron Dome and other defence systems
It's not just the so-called Iron Dome that's protecting Israel from hundreds of Iranian missiles. Article content The term Iron Dome has become 'a stand-in for Israeli missile defence more broadly; so, it's kind of like how we use Kleenex to describe every type of facial tissue,' said Wes Rumbaugh, a fellow in the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Article content Article content Article content Defence systems known as David's Sling and The Arrow are also both helping Israel to intercept and destroy long-range missiles fired from Iran. But even Israel's vaunted missile defence system can't stop everything. Article content Article content The Iranian missile attacks began June 13 after Israel launched what it called a pre-emptive strike to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Operation Rising Lion targeted Iranian nuclear sites and military installations, killing hundreds, including several of the country's top military leaders. Article content 'Iran retaliated by firing waves of ballistic missiles at Israel, where explosions flared in the skies over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv and shook the buildings below,' the Associated Press reported Saturday. Article content The Jerusalem Post reported Monday that the Israeli Defence Force 'provided its first statistics of the war on its shoot down success against Iran's ballistic missiles, setting it at 80-90 per cent, with only about 5-10 per cent of ballistic missiles hitting actual residential areas.' Article content Article content Per the Post, 'eight more Israeli civilians were killed in Iran's Sunday-Monday middle-of-the-night attacks, bringing the total number of deaths to 24, with one more missing person expected to be declared dead in the coming hours.' Article content Article content Here's what we know about Israel's missile defence systems, including how they work and why some missiles are still getting through.
National Post
9 hours ago
- Politics
- National Post
Why are Iranian missiles hitting Israel? What to know about Iron Dome and other defence systems
It's not just the so-called Iron Dome that's protecting Israel from hundreds of Iranian missiles. Article content The term Iron Dome has become 'a stand-in for Israeli missile defence more broadly; so, it's kind of like how we use Kleenex to describe every type of facial tissue,' said Wes Rumbaugh, a fellow in the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Article content Article content Article content Defence systems known as David's Sling and The Arrow are also both helping Israel to intercept and destroy long-range missiles fired from Iran. But even Israel's vaunted missile defence system can't stop everything. Article content Article content The Iranian missile attacks began June 13 after Israel launched what it called a pre-emptive strike to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Operation Rising Lion targeted Iranian nuclear sites and military installations, killing hundreds, including several of the country's top military leaders. Article content 'Iran retaliated by firing waves of ballistic missiles at Israel, where explosions flared in the skies over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv and shook the buildings below,' the Associated Press reported Saturday. Article content The Jerusalem Post reported Monday that the Israeli Defence Force 'provided its first statistics of the war on its shoot down success against Iran's ballistic missiles, setting it at 80-90 per cent, with only about 5-10 per cent of ballistic missiles hitting actual residential areas.' Article content Article content Per the Post, 'eight more Israeli civilians were killed in Iran's Sunday-Monday middle-of-the-night attacks, bringing the total number of deaths to 24, with one more missing person expected to be declared dead in the coming hours.' Article content Article content Here's what we know about Israel's missile defence systems, including how they work and why some missiles are still getting through. Article content Israel fields three tiers of missile defence systems, Rumbaugh said. 'At the lowest tier is Iron Dome, which has gotten more popularity just because it gets used a lot more often against rocket and maybe lower-tier cruise missile attacks. Every time that Hamas shoots rockets at Israel, that's where Iron Dome comes in.'
The Independent
12-05-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
What Trump's dream ‘Golden Dome' could look like
Seven days after his inauguration, Donald Trump issued the ' Iron Dome for America ' executive order to create a cutting-edge defense system that protects the U.S. from long-range missile attacks. The idea evokes the concept of Israel 's missile defense system, but there would be several key differences between the U.S. ally's Iron Dome and Trump's so-called 'Golden Dome'. The Golden Dome would have to cover a much larger area, for starters. The Golden Dome will also have to be a lot more comprehensive, with several different systems that can locate, track and stop any kind of aerial attack the U.S. might face, according to Wes Rumbaugh, a fellow in the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. By comparison, Israel's Iron Dome is a system designed to specifically protect against just short-range rockets and artillery shells. The Pentagon has yet to release any detailed plans about the project. But Congressional Republicans recently proposed allocating $25 billion from this year's budget for the project, signaling that officials may start bringing the Golden Dome to fruition soon. Here's what you need to know about Trump's plan — and why some experts warn it has some 'big issues': Space-based missile defense would be key Trump's executive order outlines some straightforward aspects to his Golden Dome plan, like an updated missile threat risk assessment or a list of strategic locations where it'd be best to defend against missile threats proactively. But the most significant component is also the most complicated: a network of 'space-based interceptors,' such as lasers, that would be able to stop or destroy warheads shortly after they're launched. This harkens back to President Ronald Reagan 's infamous space-based missile defense system, nicknamed 'Star Wars' by critics. Officials building any space-based interceptor system would need to ensure every possible attacker and target are covered — you can't have Florida covered but not California. But this means building a massive web of interceptors to ensure they're always in the correct position, which Michael O'Hanlon, director of research in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, argues would be costly and 'hugely inefficient.' 'You've got to be pretty confident you're going to get everything, or at least knock everything off course,' O'Hanlon tells The Independent. O'Hanlon also says lasers themselves also pose a cost issue, because those would have to be sent into orbit with large amounts of fuel and giant mirrors that can focus the laser's energy enough to destroy a warhead. 'This translates into each one of your defensive space-based lasers being the equivalent of the Hubble telescope,' he says. Can the 'Golden Dome' ever come to fruition? Rumbaugh believes the Golden Dome is feasible on a purely technical level, but other factors will determine whether it ever gets built. By building up such strong defensive systems, the U.S. could provoke an adversary into further strengthening their offense, sparking a global arms race. This could trigger a feedback loop where officials make the country 'less secure and certainly more impoverished,' O'Hanlon said. 'If you really try to make this comprehensive against even a Russian nuclear attack, then you're reigniting all the age-old debates about the likelihood of just triggering an arms race where defense continues to be more difficult and expensive than offense,' O'Hanlon added. Other challenges will include budget and scale. Rumbaugh said some have compared the Golden Dome to the Manhattan Project, America's top-secret effort to construct an atomic bomb during World War II. O'Hanlon similarly estimates the project would cost hundreds of billions of dollars. 'Even if you just sized [the system] to today's Russian nuclear arsenal, and you wanted to build a multi-layer capability that Trump has talked about, that is already enormously expensive,' O'Hanlon said. 'I think I calculated something in the range of $500 billion, and that was just for a limited part of it.' Collaboration and resource-sharing may also prove difficult and the details are still unclear, Rumbaugh added. How will the Missile Defense Agency, the Space Force, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force and various other agencies work together to manage the Golden Dome? That remains unclear. Do we need a Golden Dome? Even if the idea seems farfetched, O'Hanlon says the U.S. does need to expand its missile defense capabilities. 'I think that there could be some benefits to even a limited, partially effective missile defense system, whether it's defending against the North Korean threat that's continued to grow, or a future Iranian threat, or a threat of a limited strike by Russia or China,' he said. O'Hanlon offers that a scaled-back version of Trump's plan could be beneficial overall to U.S. national security. 'I think there is value in doing more than we've done already,' he added.
Yahoo
10-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
President Donald Trump wants to create a ‘Golden Dome' for the U.S. What would that actually look like?
Seven days after his inauguration, Donald Trump issued the 'Iron Dome for America' executive order to create a cutting-edge defense system that protects the U.S. from long-range missile attacks. The idea evokes the concept of Israel's missile defense system, but there would be several key differences between the U.S. ally's Iron Dome and Trump's so-called 'Golden Dome'. The Golden Dome would have to cover a much larger area, for starters. The Golden Dome will also have to be a lot more comprehensive, with several different systems that can locate, track and stop any kind of aerial attack the U.S. might face, according to Wes Rumbaugh, a fellow in the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. By comparison, Israel's Iron Dome is a system designed to specifically protect against just short-range rockets and artillery shells. The Pentagon has yet to release any detailed plans about the project. But Congressional Republicans recently proposed allocating $25 billion from this year's budget for the project, signaling that officials may start bringing the Golden Dome to fruition soon. Here's what you need to know about Trump's plan — and why some experts warn it has some 'big issues': Trump's executive order outlines some straightforward aspects to his Golden Dome plan, like an updated missile threat risk assessment or a list of strategic locations where it'd be best to defend against missile threats proactively. But the most significant component is also the most complicated: a network of 'space-based interceptors,' such as lasers, that would be able to stop or destroy warheads shortly after they're launched. This harkens back to President Ronald Reagan's infamous space-based missile defense system, nicknamed 'Star Wars' by critics. Officials building any space-based interceptor system would need to ensure every possible attacker and target are covered — you can't have Florida covered but not California. But this means building a massive web of interceptors to ensure they're always in the correct position, which Michael O'Hanlon, director of research in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, argues would be costly and 'hugely inefficient.' 'You've got to be pretty confident you're going to get everything, or at least knock everything off course,' O'Hanlon tells The Independent. O'Hanlon also says lasers themselves also pose a cost issue, because those would have to be sent into orbit with large amounts of fuel and giant mirrors that can focus the laser's energy enough to destroy a warhead. 'This translates into each one of your defensive space-based lasers being the equivalent of the Hubble telescope,' he says. Rumbaugh believes the Golden Dome is feasible on a purely technical level, but other factors will determine whether it ever gets built. By building up such strong defensive systems, the U.S. could provoke an adversary into further strengthening their offense, sparking a global arms race. This could trigger a feedback loop where officials make the country 'less secure and certainly more impoverished,' O'Hanlon said. 'If you really try to make this comprehensive against even a Russian nuclear attack, then you're reigniting all the age-old debates about the likelihood of just triggering an arms race where defense continues to be more difficult and expensive than offense,' O'Hanlon added. Other challenges will include budget and scale. Rumbaugh said some have compared the Golden Dome to the Manhattan Project, America's top-secret effort to construct an atomic bomb during World War II. O'Hanlon similarly estimates the project would cost hundreds of billions of dollars. 'Even if you just sized [the system] to today's Russian nuclear arsenal, and you wanted to build a multi-layer capability that Trump has talked about, that is already enormously expensive,' O'Hanlon said. 'I think I calculated something in the range of $500 billion, and that was just for a limited part of it.' Collaboration and resource-sharing may also prove difficult and the details are still unclear, Rumbaugh added. How will the Missile Defense Agency, the Space Force, the Army, the Navy, the Air Force and various other agencies work together to manage the Golden Dome? That remains unclear. Even if the idea seems farfetched, O'Hanlon says the U.S. does need to expand its missile defense capabilities. 'I think that there could be some benefits to even a limited, partially effective missile defense system, whether it's defending against the North Korean threat that's continued to grow, or a future Iranian threat, or a threat of a limited strike by Russia or China,' he said. The Independent has contacted the White House for comment. O'Hanlon offers that a scaled-back version of Trump's plan could be beneficial overall to U.S. national security. 'I think there is value in doing more than we've done already,' he added.
