Latest news with #Wickramasinghe
Business Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
DBS, OCBC, UOB Q2 results likely to be weighed down by lower interest rates
[SINGAPORE] The trio of local banks will likely post weaker results for the second quarter of 2025, weighed down by lower net interest income from falling interest rates, analysts said. They are expected to post their Q2 financials next month, beginning with OCBC on Aug 1 and followed by DBS and UOB on Aug 7. Net interest margins (NIMs) will probably be 'materially lower' in Q2, said Thilan Wickramasinghe, head of research and regional financials at Maybank Securities Singapore. He noted that the Singapore Overnight Rate Average (Sora) was down 50 basis points – due to 'massive' domestic liquidity, partly because of safe haven inflows – while the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) was at its lowest since 2022. The Sora decline provided only partial relief in funding costs, as banks 'weigh off preserving market share', he said. DBS Group Research analyst Lim Rui Wen also expects NIMs to fall quarter on quarter by a high single digit, due to the lower Sora and Hibor. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up The rates' impact will likely be more pronounced as more loans get repriced against reduced benchmark rates throughout Q2, she added. However, she noted that OCBC's and UOB's repricing of their fixed-deposit and flagship deposit account interest rates should buffer falling asset yields in subsequent quarters. Wickramasinghe also pointed out that loan growth was better than expected in Q2, probably due to front-loading demand ahead of the expiry of US President Donald Trump's tariff moratorium. While this may partially offset downsides in net interest income, it is unlikely to arrest sequential decline, the researcher said. Trump impact Analysts also said that Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs in April likely weighed on market sentiment, impacting wealth management fees in turn. Tay Wee Kuang, an analyst at CGS International, said that macroeconomic uncertainty could continue to dampen fee income in the second half of the year, despite equity market sentiment having slowly recovered. Nevertheless, Lim of DBS expects wealth management income to remain a tailwind for Singapore banks in the medium term, as wealth management activity began recovering in May. This is also supported by ongoing growth in assets under management (AUM), she said. 'The investible portion of AUM is expected, as clients reallocated funds from fixed-deposit rates and (treasury-bill) rates, which continue to see declining rates through Q2.' Wickramasinghe likewise expects sequential improvements in wealth management fees, given falling domestic benchmark rates and risk-on market conditions. He added that significant volatility around foreign exchange, trade and interest rates would likely have supported trading income in Q2, which could surprise on the upside, especially for DBS and UOB. Higher credit costs Meanwhile, the three banks' credit costs could trend towards the higher end of their respective 2025 guidance, due to weakness across Asean economies such as Thailand and Indonesia , said Tay. 'However, we do not expect total credit costs to change drastically quarter on quarter, as we believe the pre-emptive general provisions recognised by the Singapore banks in Q1 should remain sufficient amid the current credit cycle,' he added. Ongoing reviews of second-order impacts from the US tariffs may also lead the banks to maintain or increase their general provision buffers, said Lim. Therefore, general provisions write-backs are unlikely this year, she noted. CGS International and Maybank Securities kept their 'neutral' call on the Singapore banking sector, with Tay noting that the lenders lack growth catalysts in an uncertain economic outlook. The analysts expect UOB to restore its guidance for 2025, which it had suspended in Q1. They are also awaiting more clarity from OCBC on its strategy, following its failed bid to privatise its insurance arm, Great Eastern . Clarity around returns may also take longer to resolve due to the lender's 'unexpected leadership change ', Wickramasinghe said. But Lim, who has 'hold' calls on OCBC and UOB, expects the banks' dividend yields of up to 6.5 per cent to continue supporting share prices. 'As asset quality remains largely benign, and dividend yields stay attractive, comparable to Singapore real estate investment trusts, we expect share prices to remain well-supported in a low interest-rate environment and due to the safe haven appeal of the Singapore dollar,' she said.
DW
25-06-2025
- Politics
- DW
LGBTQ+ discrimination persists in Sri Lanka – DW – 06/25/2025
LGBTQ+ Sri Lankans face violence, while promises by the government to repeal colonial-era laws remain unmet. When 20-year-old Maya went to what he thought was a meeting with a Facebook acquaintance two months ago, it turned out to be a trap. Maya described how he was met by four men who assaulted him for being gay. "They said 'How can you be like this? This isn't legal in Sri Lanka,' and beat me," Maya told DW. "I didn't go to the police, because there's no law, and they won't take any action." Sri Lanka has not yet repealed sections 365 and 365A of the penal code, colonial-era laws that criminalize "carnal intercourse against the order of nature" and "acts of gross indecency." Although the law broadly applies to all kinds of sexual activity with no reproductive nature, it has "overwhelmingly been used against the LGBT community," rights lawyer Aritha Wickramasinghe told DW. Wickramasinghe works with iProbono, a global group of organizations providing free legal service to help people access their rights. Many of Maya's friends have cut him off for being gay, he said, adding that hateful comments directed toward him have deeply affected him. "When other people go and tell my family members, 'How can a man behave like this?' I feel really upset. I've even attempted suicide, that's how disturbed I was," Maya said. Sri Lanka's colonial-era laws echo those once seen across Asia. Many countries have repealed these laws — notably India in 2018 and Singapore in 2022 — but Sri Lanka still lags behind. Kannan Sathurshan, a 27-year-old performance artist, said he felt "trapped between society and the law, and unable to move forward" and was considering leaving Sri Lanka to live more openly with his boyfriend. "As a gay man, I can't be open about who I am," he told DW. "There are younger people who look up to me as a role model, but when they see that even I'm not open about who I am, how will they be?" Although the laws are not widely enforced, LGBTQ+ people in Sri Lanka continue to face discrimination in many aspects of life. "Sri Lankans never had a problem with homosexuality," said Rosanna Flamer-Caldera, founder and director of the LGBTQ+ organization EQUAL GROUND. "It was the British who brought this into our country, and it has been used by some politicians to vilify LGBTQI people in order to cause division within society," Flamer-Caldera said. She told DW that Sri Lankan society had "come a long way" in the last 20 years, with far more public support for LGBTQ+ people. However, she also noted a rise in hateful rhetoric towards the LGBTQ+ community. Wickramasinghe said that although the use of the law was going through its "quietest period," police officers continued to use it against LGBTQ+ people, contrary to reports that it was unenforced or dormant. He said his organization had previously handled cases of forced anal and vaginal examinations of LGBTQ+ people being conducted by the police. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Police media spokesperson Frederick Udayakumara Wootler told DW that consenting LGBTQ+ couples could not be prosecuted for having sex in private in the absence of a complaint that alleged a use of force or a lack of consent. He said the message of sensitivity towards LGBTQ+ individuals had been conveyed "very clearly" to police officers through circulars and directives, and said, "there won't be any harassment against" LGBTQ+ individuals. Sri Lanka's current government, led by leftist Anura Kumara Dissanayake, promised in their manifesto to repeal the laws that criminalize the LGBTQ+ community. However, seven months after they won a supermajority in November's parliamentary elections, there has been no official action on the topic. A private member's bill was put forward in 2023 by parliamentarian Premnath C. Dolawatte to repeal the colonial-era laws. The same year, Sri Lanka's Supreme Court welcomed the move and said decriminalization would not be unconstitutional. The court ruled that the decriminalization of sexual activity amongst consenting adults "only furthers human dignity and as such this cannot be considered as being an offence that must be maintained in the statute book." Lawyer Wickramasinghe told DW the Human Rights Commission had also written to the government to ask them for decriminalization. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Adhil Suraj, the executive director of the LGBTQ+ organization Equite, told DW the government's lack of action was "questionable." He said Equite was planning to meet parliamentarians from the ruling National People's Power (NPP) alliance, opposition leaders and international stakeholders to advocate for decriminalization. "We can't express ourselves as who we really are," he said. The law is a really bad barrier to day-to-day life on many levels — economically, socially, politically." Maya believes that a change in the law will mean a change in attitudes both within the community and beyond. "If there's a [change in the] law, boys won't be scared to talk to each other, fall in love or have sex. They'll be free and without fear," he said. "I'm being open about this. Imagine how many people there are like me who can't talk about this openly."
Business Times
29-04-2025
- Business
- Business Times
These Singapore names are potential winners from election Budget, tariff volatility: Maybank
[SINGAPORE] The Republic's domestic-oriented stocks could emerge as spillover beneficiaries amid tariff volatility in spite of Singapore's high trade dependency, said Maybank. That includes sectors such as property and consumer as potential winners, it said. In a Friday (Apr 25) research report, Maybank analyst Thilan Wickramasinghe said that the city-state could offer a 'relative safe haven' amid global growth challenges as tariffs create volatility. 'A low baseline tariff, resurging domestic demand from construction and an election Budget, plus a national balance sheet capable of delivering aggressive stimulus if needed, should provide some cushioning as markets reconfigure to the new world order,' he said. Singapore economy could absorb shocks, cushion tariff blow 'While Singapore's external trade dependency is high, we think the domestic economy may have bandwidth to absorb the worst of the shocks,' said the analyst. Maybank named two drivers: a construction boom, and the 2025 election Budget. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up A construction boom is under way, said the bank, with contracts awarded recording a 58 per cent year-on-year surge for the year up until February. This was driven by both public housing and private projects such as Changi Airport Terminal 5 or Tuas Port. The 2025 Budget is another area that is 'delivering generous transfers' which could boost domestic stocks, Wickramasinghe noted. 'The government has ample dry powder to introduce more fiscal stimulus,' he said. The estimated accumulated fiscal surplus over the current electoral term is S$14.3 billion or around 1.9 per cent of the gross domestic product, he said. This can be drawn over FY2025 without needing to tap past reserves. Moreover, the Singapore government has historically deployed strong stimulus during 'times of extreme stress'. For instance, during the global pandemic five years ago, fiscal stimulus was raised to 14.4 per cent of the GDP under the Covid-19 Stimulus Package alongside a further 8 per cent of GDP from past reserves drawdowns. 'Combined, these factors could support relatively better domestic earnings visibility,' he said. Potential winners The report screened Singapore-listed stocks with a market capitalisation above S$400 million that derive over 50 per cent of revenues locally, as these could benefit from domestic stimulus. As a secondary criterion, it surveyed stocks generating revenues from China and South-east Asia, which could gain on supply chain shifts from tariff arbitrage. 'Our screening shows property – especially real estate investment trusts (Reits) and construction – industrials, consumer and healthcare are potential winners,' said the analyst. He said that banks were excluded from the screening. 'While the sector derives more than 50 per cent of income from Singapore, they are much more directly linked to the global trade cycle, thus not fully reflecting pure domestic consumption.' Noting that stocks related to real estate and Reits accounted for more than half of the screened list, Wickramasinghe said that falling domestic benchmark rates should be a positive signal for Reits. Stress tests conducted under global financial crisis-level scenarios have indicated that retail and industrial rents would remain resilient, he added. Among the Reits, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust , Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust screened favourably, he added. Besides Reits, property development and construction companies – including Bukit Sembawang Estates and OUE – emerged as attractive opportunities. According to Wickramasinghe, industrial and utilities companies with long-term offtake contracts and strong order books are well-positioned to benefit domestically. These include names such as Sembcorp Industries and Keppel . Consumer and healthcare sectors could similarly see upside from 'domestic spillover demand driven by fiscal stimulus', he added, with screened names such as Kimly . Transport and communication companies such as SBS Transit and Vicom are expected to demonstrate resilience supported by steady domestic demand.
