Latest news with #WinsAboveBubble
New York Times
20-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
How to watch BYU vs. VCU: Odds, storylines for men's NCAA Tournament matchup
BYU has lost in the Round of 64 in its last five NCAA Tournament appearances. The last time the Cougars made it past that round was 2011. BYU is favored against VCU in Thursday's first-round game, but the Rams are a trendy upset pick. We've got a breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the matchup, plus odds and viewing info. Our game previews are a collaborative effort between The Athletic staff, The Field of 68 and Brad Evans' The Gaming Juice. Own your bracket pool with The Athletic Projecting the bracket | Best picks to win the title | Best bracket names Strengths: Filling up the cup is a BYU speciality. Comfortable playing in half-court grinders or all-out sprints, the Cougars are well-drilled, unselfish and highly efficient. They enter the postseason No. 5 in effective field goal percentage, netting 37 percent on 3-pointers and over 59 percent on 2s. Also, they rank top-30 nationally in assist to field goals made, slicing and dicing teams like Bobby Flay making a perfectly cooked prime rib. Peaking at the right time, Kevin Young's crew ranked top-10 in overall BARTHAG rating and Wins Above Bubble on BartTorvik over the regular season's final month. With one of the tallest teams in the Dance, they're also supreme glass commanders. On the season, they finished inside the top 70 nationally in offensive and defensive rebound percentage. Junior center Keba Keita is a mauler. As a cherry on top, 41.8 percent of BYU's minutes were played off the bench. In other words, it doesn't lose much punch across rotational lines. Advertisement Weaknesses: D is clearly optional for Jimmer Fredette U. Over its final 10 regular-season games, it ranked an ultra friendly No. 164 in effective field goal percent defense, surrendering 50.6 percent inside the arc and 34.1 percent beyond it. The Cougars must communicate, play connected and body up to overachieve. Free-throw shooting is another glaring shortcoming. BYU converted a paltry 69.4 percent at the charity stripe, where only 15.5 percent of its points were sourced (No. 356 in the nation). That's partially a function of its overall offensive efficiency, but drawing whistles and taking advantage at the line needs to be prioritized. Outlook: Winners in nine of the last 10, the Cougars enter the tournament habanero hot. Over 47 percent of their jacks come from 3-point range. When owning the arc and playing just average defense, they can compete with almost anyone. Their size, depth and overall offensive execution are attractive pluses. If NBA-bound point guard Egor Demin can play under control, BYU has the goods to taste sweetness for only the third time since 1981. —Brad Evans Strengths: VCU may have the best guard group in the entire country. Max Shulga, Phillip Russell and Joe Bamisile are a three-headed monster, and Zeb Jackson comes off the bench as a double-figure scorer as well. Guards win ballgames in March, and the Rams have four seniors they can rely on. That's scary. Defensively, the Rams are elite, ranking sixth in effective field goal percentage defense (45.1 percent) and top-30 in both turnover and steal percentage. They turn you over, share the ball, attempt a ton of 3-pointers and don't allow opponents to shoot it well. There's a lot to like about this group. Weaknesses: Really, it's VCU's overall resume that raises questions. It has just one Quad 1 win and a Quad 4 loss to 7-24 Seton Hall in overtime. The Rams also played just one KenPom top-50 team (New Mexico) and lost by seven, so it's hard to gauge how they would fare against some of the best teams in the country. The other concern? The frontcourt depth is pretty thin with three 6-foot-10 forwards in Jack Clark, Christian Fermin and Luke Bamgboye. They hold down the fort, but they aren't going to blow anyone away down low with their scoring or rebounding. Advertisement Outlook: VCU's guard play and defensive prowess scream that it's a team that can upset a higher seed and make some noise in March. We just haven't seen it happen on the court against the best of the best. That reality warrants cautious optimism, but man, it feels like Shulga is bound to hit a big shot to win a game. —Sam Lance Streaming and Betting/Odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photo of Dallin Hall: Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
Arab News
18-03-2025
- Sport
- Arab News
March Madness tips off with First Four in Dayton
DAYTON, Ohio: North Carolina was a controversial selection for the NCAA Tournament, but the Tar Heels can silence some skeptics with a win over San Diego State on Tuesday night at the First Four. For the latest updates, follow us @ArabNewsSport The winner will face No. 6 seed Mississippi on Friday in Milwaukee. The Tar Heels (22-13) seemed a long shot to make the tournament with a 1-12 record in Quadrant 1 games, but were chosen Sunday thanks to a strong nonconference schedule and other metrics. 'I didn't listen to bracketology,' North Carolina coach Hubert Davis said Monday. 'I didn't listen after our name was selected on CBS. I didn't listen to the telecasts. I haven't listened to anybody's comments in regards to selections, seedings. I know that we're really excited to be a part of this, and we're looking forward to tomorrow night.' UNC's inclusion fueled some conspiracy theories, with athletic director Bubba Cunningham being chair of the selection committee. Rules state that Cunningham could not participate in the debate about his team, so the vice chair, Sun Belt Conference commissioner Keith Gill, presided over discussions about the Tar Heels. The knock against North Carolina was a lack of Quad 1 wins. But the Tar Heels played the nation's fifth-toughest nonconference schedule, which included games against No. 1 NCAA Tournament seeds Auburn and Florida, No. 2 seeds Alabama and Michigan State, and a trip to Kansas, which earned a No. 7 seed. And the Tar Heels had higher rankings in the NET (36th), KenPom (33rd) and BPI (25th) than West Virginia, Indiana, Ohio State and Boise State, the first four teams left out of the field. Additionally, they finished slightly ahead of the Mountaineers for best among that group in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), a metric added this year looking at how many more or fewer wins a team has against its schedule compared to what a bubble team would expect. Regardless, San Diego State (21-9) isn't going to make things easy for the Tar Heels. The Aztecs lead the nation in field goal percentage defense (.378) and rank 13th in defensive efficiency. 'I think our identity is in our defense and our effort,' forward Jared Coleman-Jones said. 'I think that if we play really good defense and we play with effort and we play with swagger, I think everything else is going to handle itself.' RJ Davis carries the load for the Tar Heels, averaging 17 points and 3.7 assists per game. The No. 11 seed is the lowest ever for North Carolina, who are making their 54th NCAA Tournament appearance, second-most to Kentucky's 62. Despite the questions about their resume, the Tar Heels practiced on Sunday and prepared to play. 'I think we've all kind of felt the hate, the disagreement, all that,' guard Seth Trimble said. 'We're just running with it. We definitely feel like we've got something to prove.' Familiar foes When No. 11 seeds Texas and Xavier play on Wednesday night in Dayton, it will mark the fourth time since 1990 the teams have met in the NCAA Tournament. The Longhorns (19-15) beat the Musketeers 83-71 in the 2023 Sweet 16. In 2004, Xavier beat Texas 79-71 to reach the Elite Eight before losing to top-seeded Duke 66-63. Zach Freemantle returned from injury and averaged 19.8 points during a seven-game winning streak to close the regular season, helping the Musketeers (21-11) return to the tournament after missing out last year. The First Four extends the standout freshman season for Longhorns guard Tre Johnson, who led the SEC in scoring with 19.8 points per game. The Longhorns and Musketeers were firmly on the bubble entering Selection Sunday. The winner will face No. 6 seed Illinois on Friday night in Milwaukee. 'It's so difficult to make the tournament,' Xavier coach Sean Miller said. 'There's so much invested. We played our best basketball as we entered March.' Unlikely dancers Saint Francis (PA) made an unlikely return to the University of Dayton Arena after becoming the 19th team to reach the NCAA Tournament with a losing record. The Red Flashes (16-17) lost their season opener 87-57 to the Dayton Flyers on Nov. 4, and few would have predicted they'd return to the same building in March. 'We're obviously very excited we've already played here before,' Saint Francis guard Riley Parker said. 'The first game we played here didn't turn out our way, so we're just trying to come back here and make it right.' Saint Francis are making theirvsecond NCAA Tournament appearance, first since 1991. The Red Flashes face Alabama State (19-15) in a matchup of No. 16 seeds on Tuesday night. The Hornets' last tournament appearance was in 2011. The winner will face No. 1 overall seed Auburn on Thursday in Lexington, Kentucky. Teams with losing records entering the NCAA Tournament have gone 0-18. Deep threat No. 16 seeds American (22-12) and Mount St. Mary's (22-12) meet in Dayton on Wednesday night, with the winner earning a date with No. 1 seed Duke in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Friday. The player to watch for American is 6-foot-9 Matt Rogers, who leads the team with 59 3-pointers. His 1.7 made 3s per game ranked 12th in the Patriot League. Dola Adebayo leads Mount St. Mary's with 13.2 points per game. The Mountaineers averaged more than 70 points per game and shot 34 percent from 3-point range this season. The two Washington D.C. area programs have a long history. This will be the 71st meeting between the schools. American leads the series 37-33, including four straight wins entering Wednesday.
Yahoo
17-03-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Death to quadrants: North Carolina benefits as NCAA looks past archaic selection system
The bracketologists — the smart ones, the good ones, and all the many rest of them — had spoken. North Carolina's 1-12 record in Quadrant 1 games was utterly and totally disqualifying. The only March drama for the Tar Heels was going to be whether they'd accept an NIT bid or decline for the second time in three years. Then a funny thing happened on the way to Dayton. The NCAA selection committee entered the 21st Century, and took the Tar Heels along with it. They'll play San Diego State in the First Four on Tuesday for the right to play Mississippi in the first round. By any rational or objective metric, in a quadrant-free world, North Carolina deserved to be in. Not by much, to be sure, but in. North Carolina had a better NET rating than San Diego State, Texas, Xavier, Boise State or Indiana. It ranked higher in Wins Above Bubble, the gold-standard resume rating the NCAA basketball selection committee added to its teamsheets this summer. And the Tar Heels fared dramatically better than any of those teams in Ken Pomeroy's efficiency ratings, which aren't supposed to measure how well you've played — the standard for NCAA tournament selection — but how good you actually are. In any other year, that might not have been enough. The committee has been stuck on quadrants for decades now, a way to sort the field and parse the data when all it had to go by was the obsolete, borderline-useless RPI. Finally, under the stewardship of committee chairman Bubba Cunningham, it abandoned the old and embraced the new. That is, yes, North Carolina athletic director Bubba Cunningham, but this was no cynical pivot. And it wasn't just UNC: Xavier (1-9 in Q1) got in, too. Over the course of his term on the committee, Cunningham did as much as any chairman in recent memory to add new, better measurements to the NCAA process, in part because he harbored serious and legitimate doubts about the efficacy of the NET, a sort of Frankenstein's metric that tries to measure how good your wins are with how good we think you are, two very different things. Under Cunningham's leadership, the NCAA added WAB and Torvik – a predictive metric similar to KenPom — to the teamsheets, measurements that established Cunningham's own men's basketball team as a worthy at-large selection by any criteria but quadrants. 'WAB really is designed, when you get down to trying to compare these teams across the country, how would they compete against the teams around the bubble, and how would they compete against the nonconference schedule that each of the teams that are being considered have played?' Cunningham told CBS Sports HQ on Sunday. 'So it really is an interesting metric that we're using for the first time, and I think we used it, but there's not any singular metric that we all rely on.' It's easy to look at Quadrant 1 record and say, 'Well, that's how they did against good teams, so…' but quadrants draw arbitrary lines between wins (and losses) of roughly equal value, turning what should be a nuanced process that accurately evaluates every team and every game into a random party trick of 'what's somebody's NET rating today?' Quadrants date from the days of the RPI, which the NCAA acknowledged did such a poor job of evaluating teams that you had to look at how teams fared against the top 25, top 50, top 100 and so on in RPI just to get a sense of things. With the advent of the NET, an improvement on the RPI but still flawed, the NCAA finally adjusted the quadrants to give more weight to road and neutral-site wins, as they should. But the demarcations — an opponent NET of 30 or better at home, 50 or better at a neutral site and 75 or better on the road — draw needlessly arbitrary lines between games of equal value. The difference between a neutral-site win over the 50th- and 51st-ranked teams in the NET is negligible in real life, but apocalyptic in the committee's eyes. And with the advent of new metrics like WAB, quadrants are as much an artifact of the set-shot era as jump balls after every held ball. There's a reason we got rid of that, just as there's a reason there's a 3-point line now. When something makes the game better, we should embrace it. North Carolina was facing the same injustice as N.C. State in 2019, when the Wolfpack was penalized for playing a weak nonconference schedule — but still, famously, beat Auburn — despite beating the snot out of those teams. There just wasn't the awareness then, among the athletic directors and commissioners on the committee, that it's hard to beat up on even bad teams by those big numbers. N.C. State's performance and its weak schedule were both baked into its strong NET rating, which the committee chose to ignore. It helped the Wolfpack's opponents, though. They got credit for beating an NCAA-tournament worthy team by beating N.C. State. Voila: The ACC had three No. 1 seeds that year. Unquestionably, North Carolina knew the landscape this season and had 13 chances to win more than one Q1 game. The Tar Heels' poor Q1 record was not a failure of opportunity, even in a weak ACC. (Unlike N.C. State in 2019, North Carolina played a brutal nonconference schedule.) The Tar Heels wouldn't have been able to blame the committee for that. But we all should thank the committee, as basketball fans. The point of the NCAA tournament is to get the 37 most deserving at-large teams into the field, even if they have to win a game in Dayton to prove it. It's 2025. We can do the math now. We know who they are. North Carolina was, and is, one of them. Never miss a Luke DeCock column. Sign up at to have them delivered directly to your email inbox as soon as they post. Luke DeCock's Latest: Never miss a column on the Canes, ACC or other Triangle sports
New York Times
14-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch 2025: Florida leads charge for final No. 1 seed
(Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's & women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.) NASHVILLE, Tenn. — For complete analysis of the teams around the cut line, check out Jim Root's Bubble Watch, publishing daily until the field of 68 is announced Sunday. Quickly on this bracket: North Carolina beat Wake Forest on Thursday yet managed to fall to the first team out of the field, leapfrogged by Boise State and Texas thanks to huge wins for both. Advertisement That drops Xavier as well after the Musketeers fell to Marquette in the Big East tournament. It's very close there. But Boise State now has a third Quad 1 victory, over San Diego State in the Mountain West tournament, to go with wins over Clemson and Saint Mary's. Texas now has seven Quad 1 wins after getting a second over rival Texas A&M, and yes, Texas also has 14 losses. If Tennessee and Rick Barnes hand close friend Rodney Terry a 15th on Friday, does that push the Longhorns back out? Perhaps. But right now the SEC should have a record 14 teams in the field. Also, Friday here at Bridgestone Arena, where the first two days of the SEC tournament have not felt like early days of a conference tournament, the big dogs take the court for the first time and resume their jousting for a No. 1 seed. Auburn's already got the No. 1 overall seed reserved. Duke's a lock No. 1, too. Florida, Alabama and Tennessee might have benefited from Houston getting shocked Thursday by Colorado, but that didn't happen, just as someone taking that No. 1 seed from Houston isn't happening. So it's Florida, Alabama and Tennessee for one spot. Florida (27-4) as of Friday morning: No. 4 in the NET rankings, 8-4 in Quad 1 games, 12-3 road/neutral, No. 4 in the new Wins Above Bubble (which is just as stated, the number of wins a team has above what a bubble team would have with the same schedule), No. 4 KenPom, No. 34 in KenPom strength of schedule. The Gators have wins at Auburn and at Alabama, with a home win over Tennessee. No one in the sport has three better. Alabama (24-7) as of Friday morning: No. 6 in the NET rankings, 10-7 in Quad 1 games, 12-4 road/neutral, No. 2 in Wins Above Bubble, No. 6 KenPom, No. 1 in KenPom strength of schedule. Like Auburn, Alabama has a win over Houston. Like Auburn, it has a win on its in-state rival's home floor — the Tigers and Tide split. But Alabama lost its only meeting with Florida and its only meeting with Tennessee. Advertisement Tennessee (25-6) as of Friday morning, No. 5 in the NET, 9-6 in Quad 1 games, 9-5 road/neutral, No. 5 in Wins Above Bubble, No. 5 KenPom, No. 14 in KenPom strength of schedule. Wins over Florida and Alabama at home, a loss to Florida on the road. A bit more work to do. Best bet for Tennessee: Beat Texas on Friday — for a hopeful shot at Auburn in the semis — and hope Missouri bounces Florida and Alabama gets dispatched immediately as well. Best bet for you: Watch the SEC Tournament on Friday. The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Photo of Will Richard: Matt Pendleton / Imagn Images)
