NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch 2025: Florida leads charge for final No. 1 seed
(Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's & women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.)
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — For complete analysis of the teams around the cut line, check out Jim Root's Bubble Watch, publishing daily until the field of 68 is announced Sunday. Quickly on this bracket: North Carolina beat Wake Forest on Thursday yet managed to fall to the first team out of the field, leapfrogged by Boise State and Texas thanks to huge wins for both.
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That drops Xavier as well after the Musketeers fell to Marquette in the Big East tournament. It's very close there. But Boise State now has a third Quad 1 victory, over San Diego State in the Mountain West tournament, to go with wins over Clemson and Saint Mary's. Texas now has seven Quad 1 wins after getting a second over rival Texas A&M, and yes, Texas also has 14 losses.
If Tennessee and Rick Barnes hand close friend Rodney Terry a 15th on Friday, does that push the Longhorns back out? Perhaps. But right now the SEC should have a record 14 teams in the field.
Also, Friday here at Bridgestone Arena, where the first two days of the SEC tournament have not felt like early days of a conference tournament, the big dogs take the court for the first time and resume their jousting for a No. 1 seed. Auburn's already got the No. 1 overall seed reserved. Duke's a lock No. 1, too.
Florida, Alabama and Tennessee might have benefited from Houston getting shocked Thursday by Colorado, but that didn't happen, just as someone taking that No. 1 seed from Houston isn't happening.
So it's Florida, Alabama and Tennessee for one spot.
Florida (27-4) as of Friday morning: No. 4 in the NET rankings, 8-4 in Quad 1 games, 12-3 road/neutral, No. 4 in the new Wins Above Bubble (which is just as stated, the number of wins a team has above what a bubble team would have with the same schedule), No. 4 KenPom, No. 34 in KenPom strength of schedule. The Gators have wins at Auburn and at Alabama, with a home win over Tennessee. No one in the sport has three better.
Alabama (24-7) as of Friday morning: No. 6 in the NET rankings, 10-7 in Quad 1 games, 12-4 road/neutral, No. 2 in Wins Above Bubble, No. 6 KenPom, No. 1 in KenPom strength of schedule. Like Auburn, Alabama has a win over Houston. Like Auburn, it has a win on its in-state rival's home floor — the Tigers and Tide split. But Alabama lost its only meeting with Florida and its only meeting with Tennessee.
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Tennessee (25-6) as of Friday morning, No. 5 in the NET, 9-6 in Quad 1 games, 9-5 road/neutral, No. 5 in Wins Above Bubble, No. 5 KenPom, No. 14 in KenPom strength of schedule. Wins over Florida and Alabama at home, a loss to Florida on the road. A bit more work to do.
Best bet for Tennessee: Beat Texas on Friday — for a hopeful shot at Auburn in the semis — and hope Missouri bounces Florida and Alabama gets dispatched immediately as well. Best bet for you: Watch the SEC Tournament on Friday.
The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Will Richard: Matt Pendleton / Imagn Images)
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