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New York Times
06-04-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Men's March Madness projections 2025: NCAA Tournament odds to win in the Final Four
Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's and women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments. Welcome to The Athletic's 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament projections, where you'll find every team's chances of advancing through each weekend of March Madness and cutting down the nets in San Antonio on April 7. These projections are based on 200,000 simulations of the 68-team bracket, which factors in a team's projected strength as well as its path to the national title. All projections are rounded to the nearest whole number. You can read more about the model at the bottom of the page. The projections will be updated after the completion of every tournament game. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Jacob Kupferman, Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
New York Times
04-04-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Women's Final Four power rankings: Who's winning? UCLA, South Carolina, UConn or Texas?
Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's and women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments. The women's Final Four is a culmination of the season, careers and collegiate legacies. It provides the ultimate platform to elevate and highlight how each team was built to achieve this elite final stage of the year. Advertisement South Carolina and UConn are both in consecutive Final Fours. The Gamecocks won it all last season and seek to take home the national championship trophy for the third time in four seasons. They won the first championship in 2022, a dominant performance against the Huskies, and UConn looks to get back to the title game for the first time since then. UConn is aiming to win the crown for the first time since 2016, sending program icon Paige Bueckers out on a high note. Texas reached the final weekend for the first time under coach Vic Schaefer after knocking on the door in past seasons. The Longhorns haven't been to the Final Four since 2003 and won their lone national championship in 1986. UCLA brings new blood to the table, reaching their first Final Four in the NCAA era, although winners of a championship in the AIAW. Who will win it all in Tampa? Who looks most primed to do so? The Bruins have the strongest foundation in the Final Four, resting on the shoulders of Lauren Betts' two-way dominance. She's a constant scoring threat, demanding attention at all times and punishing defenders in the paint. She alters opponents' approach to the game before the ball is tipped. What's stood out for UCLA throughout the tournament and the season has been the roster adaptability, always finding ways to tweak and adjust in games to solve problems presented by opponents. Gabriela Jaquez and Timea Gardiner played crucial roles against LSU after quieter performances against Ole Miss in the Sweet 16, combining to hit nine of UCLA's 10 3-pointers. Coach Cori Close's team just has the feel of the program best built to handle whatever is thrown at it in Tampa, and the Bruins have shown up throughout the Big Dance against tough competition. Paige Bueckers has dominated the NCAA Tournament, scoring 30-plus points in the last three games, including a 40-point outing against Oklahoma in the Sweet 16. Kaitlyn Chen showed her March experience in one of her finest games against USC as she shouldered the load in a matchup where Azzi Fudd struggled to find her offense. Sarah Strong adapts and morphs to each game and has a strong case as the most versatile player in the tournament — and really, in college basketball as a whole. UConn executes on defense with just enough role players alongside its stars to mix and match depending on the game plan. The Huskies have two of the best shot-making guards in Bueckers and Fudd. While UConn is talented, it will be significantly undersized against UCLA. That isn't everything, but opponents with length that can switch and make things difficult in the halfcourt (Tennessee, USC during nonconference play and Notre Dame) have taken UConn into deep waters. The Huskies will likely need another sensational performance from Bueckers to advance to the final. Similar to UCLA, the Gamecocks have thrived with multiple players stepping up in different moments. The Elite Eight hero for South Carolina was Sania Feagin, as she turned into a go-to player against Duke's smothering defense. The Gamecocks have veterans who have been in these situations before, and they have a strong baseline on both sides of the ball. Freshman Joyce Edwards can be the separator for the Gamecocks to earn another trip to the championship. Edwards has been understandably quiet in the Big Dance, stifled by some top-notch defenses and not shooting as well as she typically has. A strong game from her against Texas, which she played well against in SEC competition, seems like a necessity given the challenges the Longhorns present with their size. The Longhorns played inspired defense to smother TCU in the Elite Eight, holding the Horned Frogs to their lowest scoring total and least efficient game this season, shooting just 26.7 percent. That's not an easy feat considering that TCU had the second-most potent offense in the country, per Basketball Reference. Having two true centers (Taylor Jones and Kyla Oldacre) who can block shots and hold it down as post scorers is a cheat code for Texas as they enact constant interior pressure. Can the Longhorns hit enough shots along with that defensive edge and impact on the glass? Texas didn't lose a regulation game this season if it scored more than 50 points. The two games they didn't … both came against South Carolina. The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; photos of Maddie Booker, Lauren Betts, Paige Bueckers, MiLaysia Fulwiley: Justin Tafoya / Getty Images)
New York Times
31-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Men's March Madness Final Four power rankings: Why all four No. 1 seeds have a title shot
Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's & women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments. One of the chalkiest NCAA Tournaments in history has reached its logical conclusion: All four No. 1 seeds are headed to the Final Four for the first time since 2008. That tournament gave us an all-timer of a championship, with Mario Chalmers' miracle sending the title game to overtime as part of a Kansas victory over Memphis. And just like this Final Four, that tournament ended in San Antonio. Advertisement The burning question for this year, though: Will having these four superpowers actually lead to great games akin to that classic? Only one of the Elite Eight's four games had much drama down the stretch, and Duke's demolition of nearly every challenger could mean the Blue Devils end up blitzing their way through the last two games like UConn did last season. Their Final Four opponent, Houston, is not an easy team to blow out, though. In fact, the Cougars have not lost by more than five points all season (and three of their four losses were in overtime). Plus, Houston has the added incentive of exacting revenge for an NCAA Tournament loss to Duke just one year ago in the Sweet 16. And on the other side, Auburn has revenge on its mind, as well: The Tigers lost to Florida and Duke this season. Below, our final power rankings of the last teams standing, along with one reason for optimism for each of the four heavyweights as they descend on San Antonio. Duke brought Alabama's freight train offense to a screeching halt on Saturday night in Newark. The Blue Devils had the Tide's prolific offense to just 0.89 points per possession, the Tide's second-worst performance of the season. Duke also thrashed Alabama on the glass, 41-30, with Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach each tallying nine boards. Jon Scheyer's team is a juggernaut on both ends of the floor, but Houston – whom Duke beat in the Sweet 16 last season after the Cougars' Jamal Shead suffered an ankle injury – could provide a stiff test with its physicality and elite defense. Biggest reasons for optimism: Duke is the best team and has a generational player. Pretty solid reasons to get excited! The Blue Devils have the second-highest efficiency margin in the history of KenPom data (which runs back to 1997), and they can overwhelm opponents with elite units on both offense and defense. Texas Tech was the better team for 37 minutes on Saturday, but late in the game, Thomas Haugh and Walter Clayton Jr. refused to lose. The duo combined to hit four triples in the final three minutes, erasing a nine-point deficit and getting Florida back to the Final Four for the first time since 2014. Clayton's 30 points led the way, but the Gators' overall outstanding free throw shooting (25 of 27) — especially in contrast with the Red Raiders missing two critical front ends — earned them the victory. They now get Auburn, whom they obliterated on the Plains in early February. Biggest reasons for optimism: Florida is deep and immensely talented, and Clayton is the best closer in college basketball. They have survived shaky performances in this tournament, staring defeat in the face and coming out the other side. They will fear nothing in San Antonio. Kelvin Sampson has built his program on a stout defensive foundation, and the Cougars showed how impressive they are on that end on Sunday afternoon. Tennessee managed just 15 points in the first half, a record low for an Elite Eight game, and the Cougars maintained a double-digit lead for the entire second half. Emanuel Sharp (16 points) and LJ Cryer (17 points) hit just enough shots to keep any potential Vols comeback at bay. Houston now gets a shot at redemption against Duke, who sent the Cougars home last March in a grinding 54-51 Sweet 16 battle. Biggest reasons for optimism: Led by a long, athletic frontcourt, the Cougars have the best defense in the country. They also have three snipers in their starting backcourt, and point guard Milos Uzan's ascension to stardom has given Houston another major shot creator. The Tigers led for essentially the entire game against Michigan State, clinching Bruce Pearl's second Final Four appearance at Auburn. Johni Broome was masterful, tallying 25 points and 14 rebounds despite missing a chunk of the game after a scary fall. Broome's health will be a major storyline heading into next weekend, as both his right elbow and left ankle appeared to hamper him even after he returned to the game. The Tigers' defense allowed them to stay ahead against Michigan State, but against Florida — which destroyed Auburn at Auburn in February despite missing starter Alijah Martin — they will need a fully healthy Broome. Biggest reasons for optimism: For extended stretches against Michigan and Michigan State, Auburn has looked like the powerhouse that started the season 27-2 (including 15-1 in one of the toughest conferences ever). That version of Auburn was the best team in the country, replete with scoring options and defensive versatility. The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Jared C. Tilton, James Gilbert / Getty Images)
New York Times
30-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Elite Eight power rankings: Is UConn destined for another Final Four? Can UCLA be stopped?
Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's & women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments. The final weekend of the NCAA Tournament is almost upon us, but first: the Elite Eight. Four phenomenal matchups await Monday as each team vies to punch its ticket to Tampa for the Final Four. Advertisement No. 1 seed UCLA and No. 3 seed LSU face off in a rematch of last season's Sweet 16. Two of the most prolific players in the paint this season (Lauren Betts and Aneesah Morrow) will clash. Tremendous guards fill the backcourts for each team, made more notable by LSU star Flau'jae Johnson being cleared to play after sustaining an eye injury in the Sweet 16. In another rematch, this time from a nonconference game earlier this season, No. 1 seed South Carolina and No. 2 seed Duke meet again. Will the Gamecocks roll to a fifth straight Final Four, or can the Blue Devils return for the first time in nearly two decades? Then, a Lone Star showdown as No. 1 seed Texas and No. 2 seed TCU will battle it out. The teams play different styles; the Horned Frogs took 25.3 3-point attempts this season (26th in the nation) compared to 10.7 per game from the Longhorns (358th in the nation). Texas finished in the top 10 nationally in free throw attempts and offensive rebounding, but TCU sits in the bottom third of both statistics. This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the NCAA Tournament. No. 1 seed USC and No. 2 seed UConn, who played perhaps the best game of the season in December, will also rematch, but both teams are looking quite different in March. The Trojans gritted out a gutsy Sweet 16 win over Kansas State after losing star guard JuJu Watkins to a knee injury in the second round. The Huskies are fresh off a blowout of Oklahoma and a record-breaking performance from star guard Paige Bueckers. How do these teams stack up ahead of the Elite Eight? The way the Bruins can adapt to the moment sets them apart. That shone brightly in the third quarters during the second round and Sweet 16, as they outscored Richmond and Ole Miss 54-22 combined in the third frames. Lauren Betts is the undeniable engine that drives UCLA, the foundation of an elite defense, and a dominant post presence at 6-7. The ability of her teammates to shift and respond around her to opposing game plans has the Trojans playing elite basketball. They can find their groove hitting open shots, shifting the game by forcing turnovers and bullying on the glass. The Bruins have the tools and confidence to win it all. Behind a UConn March Madness scoring record from star Paige Bueckers, the Huskies rolled into the Elite Eight. When they click offensively, it's hard to find a team that's tougher to guard, as every set piece has a plethora of moving parts and options within it. Opponents can't take a second off in a possession against the Huskies. Despite being a smaller team, UConn plays with force on defense, dictating with timing and pressure. Teams with length and switching were able to muck up UConn's offense during nonconference play, so that will be something to track moving forward. The Huskies have a legitimate shot at returning to the Final Four and winning a national championship. After a thrilling back-and-forth Sweet 16 victory against Maryland, the Gamecocks will appear in their fifth straight Elite Eight. For anyone questioning whether South Carolina has a go-to player, look no further than MiLaysia Fulwiley's performance. Her ability to create an easy look at the rim in a mucky game looms large as the Gamecocks go deeper into March. South Carolina didn't play its typical level of assertive defense, something it'll need against Duke. Yet, it stands out that South Carolina still found a way to survive and advance despite the absence of their regular winning formula of efficiency and forced turnovers. Texas advanced to the Elite Eight after a rematch with SEC foe Tennessee — its first significant test of the NCAA Tournament. How the Longhorns are winning hasn't changed, dominating the paint and forcing turnovers. However, Texas has gone smaller in March, playing with more speed without sacrificing the size, strength and grit that earned it a No. 1 seed. Though 3-point shooting will never be the Longhorns' strength, the additional length and quickness injected by more sizable roles for freshmen Bryanna Preston and Jordan Lee have been undeniable. The tweaked formula for Texas should bode well against potent TCU. The Horned Frogs make their way to the Elite Eight for the first time in program history with the potential to go even further thanks to the prowess of their high-powered two-player game of Hailey Van Lith and Sedona Prince was effective all season, and its potency has only heightened in postseason play. Van Lith's patience and composure as a ballhandler and facilitator make it difficult to guard her in the pick-and-roll. She has the vision to pick apart opponents' defense, the 3-point shot to punish anyone giving her space, and the downhill guile to put the ball in the basket. With Prince's presence in the paint at 6-foot-7, the Horned Frogs present a constant mismatch on both ends of the court, and they use that to their advantage. TCU has a trip to the Final Four in sight. The Tigers are ferocious on the glass, including a plus-18 rebounding margin against NC State in the Sweet 16. Aneesah Morrow's play has been stellar in the Big Dance, offering a difficult mismatch for every frontcourt opponent that LSU has faced. The uptick in Sa'Myah Smith's confidence and production has also proven to be a massive boost alongside Morrow, adding another punch in the paint. It will be interesting to see how the Tigers fare against UCLA in a rematch of last season's Sweet 16, but with very different personnel. The size and length the Bruins bring isn't common, and something LSU hasn't yet seen in March Madness. Can the Tigers spread the floor enough to somewhat open up the paint? The Trojans return to the Elite Eight after a spirited performance in a gutsy wire-to-wire battle with Kansas State. JuJu Watkins, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the second round, is irreplaceable. However, the defensive foundation this team is built upon remains, and was key in keeping the fifth most efficient offense in the country to one of its lowest scoring outings of the year. The biggest tactical question ahead of USC's Sweet 16 matchup was where its offense would come from, and the freshmen tandem Kennedy Smith and Avery Howell provided an answer. Smith tied her career high of 19 points, taking a career-high 14 shots in the game and spending much more time initiating the offense than typical. What will the Trojans' offense look like now that there's a full game of tape on this shorthanded group? The Blue Devils played arguably the most stifling defense of any team in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, holding North Carolina to just 28.3 percent shooting and 38 points in the Sweet 16. Coach Kara Lawson's team is playing on a string, physical on screens, tough in the post and making plays in gaps. No questions whatsoever about Duke's ability to defend and win when games drag out. Can the Blue Devils find more consistent and efficient looks offensively in the Elite Eight? Against a tremendous defensive team in South Carolina, who held off Duke during their regular season, playing poised and in control will be key. The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images, Gary Cosby Jr. / Tuscaloosa News, Robert Hanashiro / Imagn Images)
New York Times
29-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Men's March Madness Elite Eight power rankings: Top seeds tested but still standing tall
Editor's note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men's & women's NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments. With so much chalk in the NCAA Tournament's opening weekend, we had high hopes for great games in the Sweet 16. The round delivered for the most part; even Alabama's blowout of BYU produced a record-setting offensive display. Advertisement Thursday's nightcaps were fantastic, featuring an all-around virtuoso performance from Duke's Cooper Flagg and a furious comeback by Texas Tech that resulted in the tournament's first overtime. The Blue Devils needed every bit of their star freshman's power, as Arizona's Caleb Love turned in one last scoring explosion in his final college game. The Red Raiders, meanwhile, trailed by as many as 16 and were down 13 with just over four minutes left, but they cobbled together just enough key buckets and defensive stops to topple John Calipari's Razorbacks after five extra minutes. Friday offered more drama in Atlanta, with Michigan State battling back against Ole Miss to squeak by late. Coen Carr had some momentum-changing plays, and freshman Jase Richardson (20 points on 8-of-12 shooting) asserted himself when the Spartans needed it most. Auburn had to rally against Michigan (and rally it did), and then Houston capped off an outstanding night of hoops with a masterful out-of-bounds play to beat Purdue just before the final buzzer. All of that action sets up a star-studded Elite Eight featuring all four No. 1 seeds, three No. 2 seeds and the de facto Cinderella, No. 3 seed Texas Tech. An elite weekend awaits! Cooper Flagg is already the best player in college basketball, and he somehow continues to improve. Thursday night was his Mona Lisa (so far), a completely unprecedented performance in the college game. That, plus some dead-eye shooting from Kon Knueppel, Sion James and Duke's bench, was enough to survive a game effort from Caleb Love and the Wildcats. The stage is now set for a showdown with Mark Sears and Alabama, participants in last year's Final Four. The No. 1 priority for Duke is obvious: Find a way to limit Alabama's absurd perimeter weaponry, which buried an NCAA Tournament record 25 3s against BYU. Florida took some serious punches from both Maryland and the injury bug on Thursday night, but the Gators came out the other side looking as impressive as ever. Head coach Todd Golden called his team's second-half performance 'elite' in the postgame news conference, and it is hard to disagree with him. Despite an ankle injury that limited starting big man Alex Condon, Golden's Gators outscored the Terps 47-33 in the second 20 minutes, forcing Maryland into a 'sub out the starters' surrender with over two minutes left in the game. Florida now faces a tough-as-nails Texas Tech team for a trip to the Final Four. The Cougars led for nearly the entire second half against Purdue on Friday night. But a game effort from the Boilermakers — led by a masterful point guard performance from Braden Smith (15 assists) — tied the game up with just over 30 seconds left. A missed Milos Uzan jumper and a tip out of bounds set the stage for a massive inbound with 2.8 seconds left. Houston executed a dandy, getting the inbounder, Uzan, a layup just before time ran out. Smith's final heave sailed wide right, and the Cougars advanced to the Elite Eight. Sunday afternoon's clash with Tennessee is sure to be a brutal battle. For the second straight round, Auburn looked incredibly mortal for a large portion of the game. And just like last Saturday against Creighton, the Tigers found the gas pedal in the second half and won by double-digits. Johni Broome carried the Tigers for the first 30 or so minutes against Michigan, and reinforcements finally arrived in the form of Tahaad Pettiford and Denver Jones. The two guards fueled a massive scoring run, erasing a 48-39 deficit in an instant while the Tigers' defense clamped down on the other end. Auburn will get the South Region's No. 2 seed Michigan State on Sunday with a chance to clinch a Final Four trip in front of a friendly Atlanta crowd. The Crimson Tide's shooting explosion on Thursday night sent a message: 2024's last remaining Final Four participant wants to play in another one. Despite an impressive offensive performance from BYU, Alabama led comfortably for the entire second half thanks to a NCAA Tournament-record 25 made 3s. That mark completely obliterated the previous high of 21 by Loyola Marymount in 1991. All-American Mark Sears led the way with 34 points (including 10 3s) and eight assists, setting the tone early with a scorching start from beyond the arc. Alabama showed its ceiling, and it will need to access that level again to take down the juggernaut that is No. 1 seed Duke. A win is a win, especially on this stage. Things looked ugly for Texas Tech as it trailed Arkansas for nearly the entire game, but the Red Raiders never quit, fighting through a frigid shooting night to hang around with the hot-shooting Razorbacks. Like the rest of his team, Darrion Williams struggled for most of the night, but he hit multiple huge buckets — including the game-tying triple to end regulation and the go-ahead bucket late in overtime — to lead Grant McCasland's squad to the Elite Eight. Long-range threat Chance McMillian's status is key on Saturday: His oblique injury held him out again on Thursday, but he is getting closer and closer to a return. Texas Tech will need him against Florida. Tennessee manhandled Kentucky for 40 minutes, exacting revenge against a team that swept the Vols during the regular season. Tennessee owned the paint, and most importantly, it held the Wildcats' potent offense to a season-low 15 3-point attempts. By turning the game into a physical brawl, Tennessee brought high-scoring Kentucky into a style in which it was far more comfortable. Zakai Zeigler continued his stellar postseason, racking up 18 points and 10 assists while controlling the pace of the game. Tennessee now faces Houston, which needed every last second to survive a game effort from Purdue. It looked dire for Michigan State for most of the first half on Friday. Ole Miss outplayed the Spartans, winning the rebounding battle — which was supposed to be Michigan State's biggest advantage. MSU ended up getting crushed in the shot volume battle (Ole Miss attempted 64 field goals compared to Michigan State's 48), but the Spartans' terrific free-throw shooting and interior scoring saved the day. Jase Richardson's efficient 20 points led the way, but Coen Carr's immense day (15 points, including a rim-rattling transition dunk late in the game) helped spark the comeback. Tom Izzo's team now awaits Auburn after the No. 1 seed Tigers stormed back against Michigan in the nightcap. The Bracket Central series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Photos: Patrick Smith, C. Morgan Engel, Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
