Men's March Madness projections 2025: NCAA Tournament odds to win in the Final Four
Welcome to The Athletic's 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament projections, where you'll find every team's chances of advancing through each weekend of March Madness and cutting down the nets in San Antonio on April 7. These projections are based on 200,000 simulations of the 68-team bracket, which factors in a team's projected strength as well as its path to the national title. All projections are rounded to the nearest whole number. You can read more about the model at the bottom of the page. The projections will be updated after the completion of every tournament game.
The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Jacob Kupferman, Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
New York Post
24 minutes ago
- New York Post
Young kid tackled by Padres security after invading field — and fans were not happy
Padres security didn't treat this youngster like a minor. An overzealous San Diego fan learned a hard lesson Tuesday night when security tackled him to the ground at Petco Park after he ran onto the field in the eighth inning of the 5-1 win over the Giants, drawing boos from the crowd. The youngster ran in the right field area near Fernando Tatis Jr. when one security guard grabbed him, only for another to spear him from behind right as a third arrived. Advertisement 5 The fan is tackled. Getty Images The three officers, clad in red shirts, then fell to the ground with the youngster while the fans booed. One on-site video showed another patron actually giving a thumbs down right after the tackle. Advertisement 5 The fan on the loose Tuesday night. Getty Images The television broadcast showed Padres reliever Jason Adam, protecting the four-run lead in the eighth, making an 'ouch' face while seemingly watching the fan get tackled. A pair of security officers eventually helped the fan — wearing a short-sleeved Padres shirt and jean shorts — off the field while holding a hat. Advertisement 5 Jason Adam noticed the hard tackle of the fan. @Ash_Padres/X Another fan made their way onto the field in the ninth inning, again running through the outfield before being taken down by a leaping security officer. The fans did not voice their displeasure for this tackle like they did the other, although the video posted to Reddit featured a fan saying: '(Looks) like another kid.' Advertisement 5 The fan runs near Fernando Tatis Jr. Denis Poroy-Imagn Images The boxscore indicated this storming of the field happened with two outs in the ninth. While the fans may have disapproved of how security handled the first fan, former MLB All-Star Adam Jones condemned the fan's actions. 'Anyone who runs on the field should be fined 10k or harsher. No space for it in baseball,' Jones posted to X early Wednesday morning. 5 Another fan ran onto the field in the ninth inning. Getty Images 'This looks like a kid who shook the hell outta the security. But I'd be fining his parents. Unacceptable and a danger. Yall can say what you want but players don't know what a fan has Amid the fan drama, the Padres' win Tuesday snapped a four-game losing streak that saw them go from from one game up on the Dodgers in the NL West to two games back entering Wednesday. Advertisement San Diego hosts the Giants for two more games before welcoming Los Angeles for another critical three-game set Friday through Sunday. The Padres own the second wild card spot, two games behind the fourth-seeded Cubs and 2 1/2 games ahead of the sixth-seeded Mets.
Newsweek
25 minutes ago
- Newsweek
Tour Championship 2025: Picks, Bets and Predictions as Scheffler Eyes FedEx Cup History
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The final playoff of the FedEx Cup is about to rise as the Tour Championship tees off at East Lake Golf Club on Thursday. All 30 players start at even par this year to decide who finishes the season on top. And no doubt, all eyes are on Scottie Scheffler. The world No. 1 arrives in Atlanta fresh off a dramatic BMW Championship win, where he snagged a four-shot win and chipped in from 82 feet on the 17th hole to seal his fifth title of the season. Now, Scheffler is chasing to win the FedEx Cup again, a record no one has touched since the FedEx Cup began in 2007. OWINGS MILLS, MARYLAND - AUGUST 16: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland reacts to a missed putt on the first green during the third round of the BMW Championship 2025 at Caves Valley Golf Club on... OWINGS MILLS, MARYLAND - AUGUST 16: Rory McIlroy of Northern Ireland reacts to a missed putt on the first green during the third round of the BMW Championship 2025 at Caves Valley Golf Club on August 16, 2025 in Owings Mills, Maryland. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) More Getty Images But it's not going to be all easy. Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Åberg, and J.J. Spaun are all in form and ready to challenge. Top 5 Bets to Watch Scottie Scheffler (+150): Scheffler is the favorite for a reason. The 29-year-old has racked up 15 top-10 finishes this season, including wins at the PGA Championship, The Open and most recently, the BMW Championship. Scheffler's scoring average of 68.11 leads the PGA Tour, and he ranks first in these strokes gained categories: total, tee-to-green, off the tee and approach. He's also fourth in putting average (1.700), proving that his flat stick is no longer a liability. Additionally, his all-around game and mental toughness make him nearly untouchable. If the putter stays warm, no one can stop him from making history on Sunday. JJ Spaun (+450): Spaun is having a breakout season that's rewriting his career narrative. With five top-five finishes in 2025, including a dramatic win at the US Open at Oakmont, he was the second USA player to grab the automatic qualification seat for the Ryder Cup this year. Statistically, Spaun ranks top 6 in SG: approach and top 46 in birdie average, generating nearly four birdies per round. Tommy Fleetwood (-110): Fleetwood enters East Lake riding a wave of near-misses, finishing T3 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and T4 at the BMW Championship. Despite going winless in 163 PGA Tour starts, he's arguably the most accomplished player in the field without a Tour title. Collin Morikawa (+3000): Morikawa had a better 72-hole score than Scheffler last year but lost due to starting strokes. This year, with all players starting at even par, Morikawa enters East Lake as one of the most intriguing sleeper picks in the field. If we look at his past performances at East Lake, Morikawa has proved his strong position by being runner-up last year, securing a top-six six in 2023, and a top-10 finish in 2020. Viktor Hovland (+2000): A former winner at East Lake, Hovland has finished inside the top 15 in each of the last four Tour Championships, including a win back in 2023. His approach game is on point. The pro has gained more than three strokes on the field in approach play across his last five starts. Despite battling swing inconsistencies and experimenting with multiple coaches this season, Hovland has found a "Band-Aid fix" that's helped him regain control of his start lines and tempo. He's posted a top-three finish at the U.S. Open and remains one of the most dangerous ball-strikers in the field. Predictions: Who Wins, Who Misses Out Winner: Scottie Scheffler It's hard to bet against him. Scheffler has won two majors, five total PGA Tour events and now has 18 career wins. He's also recorded 17 consecutive rounds under par. If he keeps his rhythm, he could become the first player since Tiger Woods to win six times in a season twice. Top Challenger: Rory McIlroy McIlroy has won three times at East Lake and finished T12 at the BMW despite skipping the St. Jude. He's chasing a fourth FedExCup title, and his length off the tee gives him an edge on the redesigned layout. Dark horse: Harry Hall Hall jumped from No. 45 to No. 26 after finishing sixth at Caves Valley last week. He's now in the mix at East Lake and could be a Ryder Cup dark horse. He was also the only player outside the top 30 to play his way into the Tour Championship field. MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE - AUGUST 08: Harry Hall of England hits out of a fairway bunker on the second hole during the second round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship 2025 at TPC Southwind on August... MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE - AUGUST 08: Harry Hall of England hits out of a fairway bunker on the second hole during the second round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship 2025 at TPC Southwind on August 08, 2025 in Memphis, Tennessee. (Photo by) More Getty Images Looking at his season, Hall's rise has been phenomenal, with some elite putting and clutch scoring. He ranks second on Tour in Strokes Gained: putting (+0.910) and first in putting average, making him one of the most efficient scorers on the greens. All said, off the course, Hall's Ryder Cup buzz is growing louder. Despite not being fitted for a team uniform, a customary step for those under consideration, he's now being called a "flat-cap wearing dark horse" in European media. With Luke Donald watching closely, a strong showing at East Lake could tip the scales in Hall's favor for a captain's pick. The Tour Championship begins Thursday and concludes Sunday with $40 million on the line and Ryder Cup implications looming. More Golf: Team USA's 6 Ryder Cup Auto Bids Set With Scottie Scheffler Leading Way
New York Times
25 minutes ago
- New York Times
Submit your questions for Scott Wheeler's first 2026 NHL Draft mailbag
The Athletic's prospects writer Scott Wheeler released his preseason 2026 NHL Draft ranking on Monday. Have a question about the 2026 class, prospects, or scouting? Submit them below for his upcoming mailbag.
