12 hours ago
A trio of tips for day three of Royal Ascot
At first glance, today's Britannia Stakes handicap (5 p.m.) at Royal Ascot looks an impossible puzzle to solve. No less than 30 three-year-old runners are due to line up and plenty of them are plot horses that will go on to win off much higher official marks than they are running from today.
However, my strong fancy for this race is PAROLE D'ORO to pull off a coup that has been some two years in the planning. This lightly-raced colt has only run three times in his career, just enough to earn a handicap rating.
Each of his three runs has seen an improvement but I am convinced the best is yet to come from trainer Michael Bell's charge. I will leave it to Bell to explain the plan as detailed in a newspaper interview earlier this month: 'He's been aimed at this since the day we bought him and everything has revolved around getting him qualified because the owner lives in France and has a box at Ascot on the Thursday every year… He's been to Ascot before and run, very well, and we are very happy with him.' A long-term plan indeed, no ifs or buts.
Last time out Parole d'Oro looked like winning a mile contest at Thirsk only to be run down late on by Roger Varian's Teroomm, who has been well backed for today's contest. Parole d'Oro is 5lbs better off today for just a three-quarter length beating so he has every chance of turning around that form. His draw in stall 24 will be perfect if, as generally expected, high numbers are favoured and able jockey Callum Shepherd is entrusted with the steering. There is an awful lot in the horse's favour – but, sadly, no longer the price.
The 33-1 which was available first thing on Saturday with three bookmakers is a distant memory and odds on this race were first advertised too late to include this horse as an ante-post bet in my weekly blog on Friday morning. However, I still think he is just about worth an investment even at the far modest odds of 8-1. However, with such poor place terms, the recommendation is two points win at that price being offered only by Ladbrokes and Coral.
In the same race, AFENTIKO looks overpriced too for the Paul and Oliver Cole father and son training team. He finished like a train behind the aforementioned Teroomm at Haydock on his seasonal debut and this stiff mile at Ascot should suit. Furthermore, I like the booking of talented Warren Fentiman who will take 5lbs off for his apprentice allowance. Back Afentiko 1 point each way too at 18-1 with Willliam Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor or Unibet, all paying a miserly four places.
My only other new bet on day three is a real outsider in the Buckingham Palace Stakes handicap (6.10 p.m.). As regular readers will know, I am a huge fan of the training skills of Ed Bethell, who only sends down his very best horses from his North Yorkshire base if they have a chance of winning.
Bethell's five-year-old gelding YORKSHIRE is better than he showed last time out when fourth in a moderate Haydock handicap after running too freely. Today's race will be run at a fair clip and jockey Callum Rodriguez should be able to give Yorkshire cover. Back him 1 point each way at 40-1 with bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair or Unibet, all paying six places This race has been the plan for Yorkshire for the whole season and so I hope he will outrun his odds at a huge price.
Today's big race is the Ascot Gold Cup (4.20 p.m.) but I have already covered this race in an ante-post preview last month. I am more than happy to stick with my selection, Trawlerman each way, although the 8-1 has long vanished. In fact, I have been backing Trawlerman steadily ever since until his price eventually dropped below 5-1 because I couldn't, and still can't, see him being out of the first three.
I am hoping that William Buick can give Trawlerman a text-book front running ride because Illinois, the long-term favourite, is not guaranteed to stay this marathon trip of two and a half miles. However, Candelari is a big danger as he tries to become the first French-trained winner of the Ascot Gold Cup.
On balance, I hope and think Trawlerman will prevail as very few classy flat horses truly stay this trip but he is one of them, having been a close second in the race last year but with no Kyprios to contend with this time around. If you are not on already though, his price is too short now to get involved so just watch the race and enjoy it.
I will be back tomorrow morning with my tips for the fourth and fifth days of this wonderful meeting that keeps on giving.
Yesterday: – 6 points.
1 point each way Spicy Marg at 16-1 for the Queen Mary, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Staya at 16-1 for the Queen Mary, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way See The Fire at 5-1 for the Prince of Wales, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 3rd. Quits.
1 point each way Sisyphean at 20-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Native Warrior at 50-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. (Non runner, stake returned as missed the cut after being declared).
Pending:
1 point each way Trawlerman at 8-1 for the Ascot Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
2 points win Parole d'Oro at 8-1 for the Britannia.
1 point each way Afentiko at 18-1 for the Britannia, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Yorkshire at 40-1 for the Buckingham Palace, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Elite Status at 25-1 for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Duke of Oxford at 33-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Who's Glen at 16-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
2 points win Caballo de Mer at 10-1 for the Northumberland Plate.
2025 flat season running total: + 32.26 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
