Latest news with #YahooFinanceMarkets
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks are rising on inflation data, not Trump's China deal
US stock futures (ES=F, NQ=F, YM=F) are higher Wednesday morning, but it's not because President Trump said there's a US–China trade deal in the works. Rather, it's because May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation rose less than expected. Yahoo Finance Markets Reporter Josh Schafer sits down with Madison Mills and Brad Smith on Morning Brief to discuss how investors have shifted their focus from trade policy to economic data. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. US stock futures edging higher this morning as the market looks beyond trade and hones in on some data here. Today's CPI report coming in better than expected. Joining us now, we've got Yahoo Finance markets reporter Josh Shafer here. All right, Josh, just take us into how excited we should be about this. Yeah, Brad, lots, a lot of news over the last 12 hours, right? Once you have this somewhat agreement with US and China that seems to be a little bit murky on exactly quite what the details are. Then you had the president posting on Truth Social earlier this morning at about 8:05 saying that that deal that was being reported on is accurate, but it hasn't been signed yet, right? You're looking at his exact post right there. What was interesting though, so that came out at 8:04, President Trump posted that. Futures didn't really move. Futures were down, right? And so then we're waiting for this CPI print. We're waiting for the CPI print. Okay, inflation in May, better than expected. Bang, futures move up. This is what we've been talking about with the stock market for about two weeks now. Is it seems like the market is not really paying attention to a lot of these trade headlines. You're looking at it on the chart there. Look at where that large move up came. A little bit after 8:30 in futures, right? So it definitely seems like this is kind of the epitome of what we've sort of been highlighting for again the better part of two weeks now. We've been writing about this in the morning brief newsletter. We've moved past every incremental headline on trade deals. It's going to drive this market. People are waiting for the data, waiting to see what's going on actually in the economy, and at least for May, the tariffs didn't increase prices as much as the street thought, right? And so that's a positive. Stocks move higher. You see the Russell 2000 catching a bid. Futures tied to the Russell 2000 catching a bid. Maybe some rate cut hopes building into this market, but I think it's definitely starting to feel like the past couple weeks we're starting to move to a new regime as far as market narrative here goes. Moving past the potential impact of tariffs. It's interesting, we asked Claudia Sahm about this earlier, a fantastic economist who we speak with often, and she said that you can't fully trust the cooling in this inflation print because obviously the tariff impact has not been fully baked in yet. How at risk are investors then if they get a little too excited off the back of these data points that come in that don't necessarily show the full tariff picture yet? Yeah, I I think so a lot of strategists right now, Maddie, are sort of talking about that the next few months are going to be choppy, right? So we talked about Scott Croner from City moving up his S&P 500 target to 6300 from 58, right? 6300 isn't that much higher than we are right now. And so he sort of dug into, well, I don't think it's going to be a straight line, right? And I think at some point many investors do expect that CPI line that you're looking at right now to come back up, right? There's going to be some level of these tariffs increasing prices. The large question when we always talk about markets is, is it going to be more or less than people think? Right? Right now, yes, people think prices are going to go up. Maybe core CPI moves a little bit above a three handle from that 2.8, but how high does it go? And does it go lower than some expect? I was at a a round table earlier this week and one Wall Street economist was projecting maybe core CPI hits 3 and a half% by sometime next year, by the end of this year into next year, right? Sort of a peak tariffs. That's pretty high. That's really high. Yeah. So if we don't get that, then is that good news, right? So I think that's sort of where the data is starting to come in. Now we're going to have to have that discussion over the next couple months is the increase, as economists still argue, is probably coming, but if it's not as bad as we initially thought, does the Fed have room to maybe ease later this year? And does that sort of clear the picture on everything that's going on right now? And again, I mean, uncertainty has been the word of the last two months, and I think, of course, that path over the next three months still remains uncertain. That's no rate cut there. But it's kind of the flipping we were looking for, right? And I don't mean to trigger or just gaslight our crypto friends out there, but this is the flipping, at least in trading mindset that we were waiting for, fading some of the tariff-related headlines and getting back to the data that the Fed is most focused on here. UBS saying this morning, the recent Trump administration actions point to negotiation, not escalation. Checkbox that. And then additionally, you look at how they're looking through the base case of effective tariffs. They think it ends the year near 15% level on Chinese goods higher at 30 to 40%. So it's clear firms are really just placing more of the emphasis around where the effective tariff rate ends the year at, and they're trading based on that, and then giving more priority to, okay, now the unknown is timing the Fed here as well. Right. Yeah, exactly, Brad. And of course, that looming question still being the labor market, right? Does the labor market hold up within that conversation, right? If tariffs do end, we've accepted tariffs are coming. Tariffs are going to be a thing. I think most bullish people that still think stocks can go higher would have the employment staying relative, or unemployment rate staying relatively steady at this point too, right? You're not expecting a large increase in the unemployment rate and sort of the labor market to cool significantly, right? So that also becomes a key part of that conversation as we think about the Fed and whether and how much they would cut this year. Josh, always great insights. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Stocks are rising on inflation data, not Trump's China deal
US stock futures (ES=F, NQ=F, YM=F) are higher Wednesday morning, but it's not because President Trump said there's a US–China trade deal in the works. Rather, it's because May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation rose less than expected. Yahoo Finance Markets Reporter Josh Schafer sits down with Madison Mills and Brad Smith on Morning Brief to discuss how investors have shifted their focus from trade policy to economic data. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. Errore nel recupero dei dati Effettua l'accesso per consultare il tuo portafoglio Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
How Fed days, CPI, and jobs reports move markets
Investors are focused on Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for tariff inflation clues. Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre, who also hosts Yahoo Finance's Stocks in Translation podcast, explains how jobs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve have moved markets since October 2022. Twice a week, Stocks In Translation cuts through the market mayhem, noisy numbers and hyperbole to give you the information you need to make the right trade for your portfolio. You can find more episodes here, or watch on your favorite streaming service. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here.
Yahoo
30-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
College grads hit a wall: Tech jobs dry up amid AI boom
Recent graduates are having a harder time landing jobs, with their unemployment rate now above the national average. Yahoo Finance Markets Reporter Josh Schafer joins Market Domination Overtime to explain how a slowdown in tech hiring and rising use of artificial intelligence (AI) are reshaping the entry-level job market. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. Recent college grads are finding it increasingly difficult to find jobs, and the gap between them and the national average is growing. Joining us now for more is Yahoo Finance market reporter, Josh Schafer. Hey Josh, yes, so we talk a lot about the unemployment rate in America being relatively low. So the unemployment rate that we're looking at on our screen here is in green. It is 4.2%. If you look over time, that is a historically low unemployment rate. But when we zoom into this chart that we're looking at here, we're seeing an interesting trend on who is having a hard time finding a job. So in our white line, we have recent college graduates. Recent college graduates constitute, uh, individuals that are 22 to 27 that just got a degree. Notice the white line typically goes underneath that green line on your screen. So typically it's moving lower. Normally those folks are having an easier time finding a job. But when you zoom in to what's happening right now, you'll see that college graduates are actually having a harder time finding a job than the national average. Two key things to point out with this data. So the folks over at Oxford Economics told me one of the big things we're seeing is AI is definitely playing a little bit of a role here. So AI could be taking in entry-level analyst jobs, entry-level jobs in tech. There's less jobs for these newcomers coming into the job market. Another key piece of this chart in 2022 is when we saw this shift. A lot of college graduates have been going to get a science degrees over the last couple years, right? They've been going into tech. Well, now what's happened since 2022, we've had that year of efficiency from meta and really across tech. There's less jobs in tech now than there used to be. The folks over at indeed told me they've seen a 40% drop in job postings for computer software jobs compared to 2020. So again, there's simply less jobs for people coming into tech right now. So graduates are graduating, they're looking for jobs, they're looking for jobs and they're continuing to not find them as quickly as they used to. So Josh, part of this, it sounds like is, is the jobs that they're targeting, you're saying? Yes, definitely. It's definitely something that we're seeing specifically in tech, and then when you look at how many college graduates are getting a degree in something like information technology, something like computer science. We had sort of skewed because of this big tech boom over the last 20 years, everyone wants to go get into tech, right? Go learn to code now. Well, that's been a shift because some of those jobs are simply being taken, like I said, by AI, or are now being not offered anymore because these companies are trying to slim down. So it's specifically right now seems to be perhaps a tech sector focus. But economists did tell me that this is one reason that the overall unemployment rate is not expected to be falling anytime soon. All right, thank you, Josh. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
30-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
College grads hit a wall: Tech jobs dry up amid AI boom
Recent graduates are having a harder time landing jobs, with their unemployment rate now above the national average. Yahoo Finance Markets Reporter Josh Schafer joins Market Domination Overtime to explain how a slowdown in tech hiring and rising use of artificial intelligence (AI) are reshaping the entry-level job market. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
