How Fed days, CPI, and jobs reports move markets
Investors are focused on Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for tariff inflation clues.
Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre, who also hosts Yahoo Finance's Stocks in Translation podcast, explains how jobs, inflation, and the Federal Reserve have moved markets since October 2022.
Twice a week, Stocks In Translation cuts through the market mayhem, noisy numbers and hyperbole to give you the information you need to make the right trade for your portfolio. You can find more episodes here, or watch on your favorite streaming service.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here.
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Yahoo
32 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures slip as key inflation print looms and US-China plan falls flat
US stock futures nudged lower on Wednesday as investors assessed a US-China plan to salvage their trade truce, with the latest reading on US consumer inflation on deck. Futures on the S&P 500 (ES=F) and on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) fell roughly 0.2%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) moved down 0.1%. Markets are giving a muted response to a US-China framework agreement to get the Geneva tariff truce back on track. Investors are still in the dark about the details of the deal, though it is expected to ease China's grip on rare earths. Plus, the agreement has yet to get sign-off from Presidents Trump and Xi. After two days of marathon talks in London, no other meetings are scheduled between the two sides — a potential concern for markets craving certainty around tariffs. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) have risen to within striking distance of record closing highs amid optimism for potential trade deals. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs Investors are now looking to the consumer price index for May due later for any sign that tariffs are pushing up inflation. The report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET., reflects the time after Trump's "Liberation Day" hikes shook markets and businesses. It's expected to show the headline rate ticked higher to 2.4% month-on-month, while the "core" reading — which strips out food and energy prices — accelerated slightly year-on-year to 2.9%. With the Federal Reserve's policy meeting coming next week, investors will be wary of any signs that costs associated with tariffs are being passed onto the consumer. On the corporate front, eyes are on Oracle's (ORCL) results expected after the bell for insight into the cloud-computing provide AI strategy. Economic data: Consumer Price Index (May); Real average hourly earnings (May) (+1.4% previously); MBA Mortgage Applications (week ending June) 6 Earnings: Chewy (CHWY), Oracle (ORCL), Vera Bradley (VRA), Victoria's Secret (VSCO) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: The biggest IPOs look a lot like the biggest stocks in the market CPI inflation seen as rising in wake of 'Liberation Day' tariffs Musk feud shows how Big Tech can't count on Trump's favor US-China talks deliver plan for restoring trade truce Musk says he regrets some Trump posts: 'They went too far' General Mills is said to weigh sale of China Häagen-Dazs stores China rare-earth magnet maker gets green light for US exports Nvidia CEO: Quantum computing is at an inflection point Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: GameStop (GME) stock fell 4% before the bell on Wednesday after posting its first quarter earnings the day prior. The US video game retailer announced net sales of $732.4M, down from $881.8M in the same period of 2024. Tesla (TSLA) stock rose 1% in premarket trading, after CEO Elon Musk backtracked on his comments towards President Trump. Musk said: 'I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week,' he said on his social-media platform, X. 'They went too far.' Victoria Secret's (VSCO) shares rose by 1% ahead of its earnings release on Wednesday. The retailer, which recently reported a cyberattack, is expected by analysts to reoort revenue of around $1.35B. Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal reports: May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show prices increased at a slightly faster clip than in April. The report, due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, comes as investors closely watch for any signs that President Trump's tariffs are impacting what consumers pay. According to Bloomberg data, headline inflation is expected to have accelerated slightly to 2.4% in May from 2.3% in April, which marked the lowest yearly increase since February 2021. Month-over-month, prices are estimated to rise 0.2%, matching April's increase. On a "core" basis, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, CPI is expected to have risen 2.9% over the past year in May, a slight acceleration from April's 2.8%. Monthly core price increases are anticipated to rise 0.3%, ahead of April's 0.2%. The report reflects the time period about a month after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements shook markets and businesses. Since then, many of those "reciprocal" tariffs have been paused, but the 10% baseline duties for most countries remain in place. ... "May's CPI report will be an important test of the speed and magnitude to which higher tariff rates are being passed along to the consumer," said the Wells Fargo economics team, led by Sarah House, in a preview note. Read more here. Gold prices are edging higher even after the US and China talks delivered a plan to ease trade tensions, a sign the market is not yet convinced of a breakthrough. Futures rose 0.7% to around $3,366 an ounce in early trading on Wednesday. Bloomberg reported: Read more here. Economic data: Consumer Price Index (May); Real average hourly earnings (May) (+1.4% previously); MBA Mortgage Applications (week ending June) 6 Earnings: Chewy (CHWY), Oracle (ORCL), Vera Bradley (VRA), Victoria's Secret (VSCO) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: The biggest IPOs look a lot like the biggest stocks in the market CPI inflation seen as rising in wake of 'Liberation Day' tariffs Musk feud shows how Big Tech can't count on Trump's favor US-China talks deliver plan for restoring trade truce Musk says he regrets some Trump posts: 'They went too far' General Mills is said to weigh sale of China Häagen-Dazs stores China rare-earth magnet maker gets green light for US exports Nvidia CEO: Quantum computing is at an inflection point Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: GameStop (GME) stock fell 4% before the bell on Wednesday after posting its first quarter earnings the day prior. The US video game retailer announced net sales of $732.4M, down from $881.8M in the same period of 2024. Tesla (TSLA) stock rose 1% in premarket trading, after CEO Elon Musk backtracked on his comments towards President Trump. Musk said: 'I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week,' he said on his social-media platform, X. 'They went too far.' Victoria Secret's (VSCO) shares rose by 1% ahead of its earnings release on Wednesday. The retailer, which recently reported a cyberattack, is expected by analysts to reoort revenue of around $1.35B. Yahoo Finance's Allie Canal reports: May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show prices increased at a slightly faster clip than in April. The report, due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, comes as investors closely watch for any signs that President Trump's tariffs are impacting what consumers pay. According to Bloomberg data, headline inflation is expected to have accelerated slightly to 2.4% in May from 2.3% in April, which marked the lowest yearly increase since February 2021. Month-over-month, prices are estimated to rise 0.2%, matching April's increase. On a "core" basis, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, CPI is expected to have risen 2.9% over the past year in May, a slight acceleration from April's 2.8%. Monthly core price increases are anticipated to rise 0.3%, ahead of April's 0.2%. The report reflects the time period about a month after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements shook markets and businesses. Since then, many of those "reciprocal" tariffs have been paused, but the 10% baseline duties for most countries remain in place. ... "May's CPI report will be an important test of the speed and magnitude to which higher tariff rates are being passed along to the consumer," said the Wells Fargo economics team, led by Sarah House, in a preview note. Read more here. Gold prices are edging higher even after the US and China talks delivered a plan to ease trade tensions, a sign the market is not yet convinced of a breakthrough. Futures rose 0.7% to around $3,366 an ounce in early trading on Wednesday. Bloomberg reported: Read more here. Sign in to access your portfolio
CNBC
44 minutes ago
- CNBC
May CPI numbers won't look as friendly as they did last month, says NatWest's Michelle Girard
Michelle Girard, NatWest head of U.S. coverage and CEO of NatWest Markets Securities, joins 'Squawk Box' to preview May's CPI data, state of the economy, and more.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Inflation expected to have ticked higher in May amid Trump tariffs
A fresh inflation report to be released on Wednesday will provide the latest test for President Donald Trump's tariffs as some retailers and economists warn the policy will raise prices. So far, the economy has defied fears of price hikes, instead giving way to a cooldown of inflation over the months since Trump took office. Economists expect inflation to have jumped slightly in May, registering year-over-year price increases of 2.4%. That would mark an increase from an inflation rate of 2.3% over the year ending in April, which amounted to the lowest inflation level since 2021. MORE: Who is David Huerta, the union leader arrested while protesting in Los Angeles? The small increase in inflation anticipated by economists would keep price levels near the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%, putting them well below a recent peak of 9% in 2022. In recent weeks, Trump has dialed back some of his steepest tariffs, easing the costs imposed upon importers. Such companies typically pass along a share of the higher tax burden in the form of price hikes. A trade agreement between the U.S. and China in May slashed tit-for-tat tariffs between the world's two largest economies and triggered a surge in the stock market. Within days, Wall Street firms softened their forecasts of a downturn. The U.S.-China accord came weeks after the White House paused a large swath of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs targeting dozens of countries. Trump also eased sector-specific tariffs targeting autos and rolled back duties on some goods from Mexico and Canada. Still, an across-the-board 10% tariff applies to nearly all imports, except for semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and some other items. Those tariffs stand in legal limbo, however, after a pair of federal court rulings late last month. Tariffs remain in place for steel, aluminum and autos, as well as some goods from Canada and Mexico. Warning signs point to the possibility of elevated prices over the coming months. Nationwide retailers like Walmart and Best Buy have voiced alarm about the possibility they may raise prices as a result of the levies. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, said this month it expects U.S. inflation to reach 4% by the end of 2025, which would mark a sharp increase from current levels. Federal Chair Jerome Powell, in recent months, has warned about the possibility that tariffs may cause what economists call "stagflation," which is when inflation rises and the economy slows. Stagflation could put the central bank in a difficult position. If the Fed were to raise interest rates, it could help ease inflation, but it may risk an economic downturn. If the Fed were to cut rates in an effort to spur economic growth, the move could unleash faster price increases. MORE: AI risks 'broken' career ladder for college graduates, some experts say For now, the Fed appears willing to take a wait-and-see approach. At its last meeting, in May, the Fed opted to hold interest rates steady for the second consecutive time. "For now, it does seem like a fairly clear decision for us to wait and see," Powell said at a press conference in Washington, D.C., last month. The Fed will announce its next rate decision on June 18. Investors peg the chances of a decision to leave rates unchanged at 99.9%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment. Inflation expected to have ticked higher in May amid Trump tariffs originally appeared on
